文字早评 2025/09/22 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、9 月 19 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深 入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。 2、央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于 9 月 22 日下午 3 点召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四 五"时期金融业发展成就; 3、据报道，OpenAI 算力告急，计划五年内斥资 1000 亿美元租赁备用服务器； 4、苹果已通知两家供应商，将 iPhone 17 的日产量至少提升 30%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.18%/-0.33%/-0.83%/-1.37%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.16%/-0.91%/-2.60%/-4.86%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.13%/-1.27%/-3.33%/-6.17%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.12%/0.13%/0.19%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩，短期指数面临 ...

Group 1 - The "China Top 500 Enterprises" list was released, with 13 companies from the region making the list, including three from Jiyuan: Yuguang Gold Lead (ranked 283), Jinli Gold Lead (ranked 420), and Wanyang Smelting (ranked 497) [2] - The local government emphasizes a collaborative approach between enterprises and government, referred to as "internal and external coordination" [2][3] - The "Ten-Hundred-Thousand" initiative aims to upgrade companies based on their annual revenue, targeting over 80 companies with revenues exceeding 10 million by 2030, and one company exceeding 1 billion [3] Group 2 - The initiative involves direct support from 27 local leaders to eliminate external barriers for companies, with a focus on nurturing over 100 billion revenue companies [4] - Yuguang Gold Lead is pursuing a goal of achieving 1 billion in annual revenue, while Henan Hengtong Chemical Group aims to recreate its success by 2030 [4] - Jiyuan's industrial foundation is strong, with over 70% industrialization, but there is a sense of urgency to keep pace with rapidly growing enterprises in neighboring regions [3] Group 3 - Yuguang Gold Lead is producing high-end lithium battery copper foil, recognized as a core material for electronic devices, and has developed a comprehensive new materials industry chain [6] - The company has achieved industry-leading standards in high-purity metals and has expanded its product range significantly, generating 210 million in revenue from minor metals in the first half of the year [6] - Jiyuan's comprehensive technological innovation index ranks fifth in the province, indicating a strong focus on innovation and development [6][7]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——鲍威尔"大战"特朗普，11:1赢得一场独立性之战！特朗普的"沉默48小时"： 揭秘美联储降息背后…… 每经AI快讯，湖南白银（SZ 002716，收盘价：6.14元）9月21日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露日， 母公司实际对外担保总额为人民币9800万元，子公司对子公司担保总额为人民币2亿元，子公司对母公 司担保总额为人民币3.6亿元，母公司对子公司担保总额为人民币6500万元。 截至发稿，湖南白银市值为173亿元。 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，湖南白银的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼占比100.0%。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 下周预测 【镍】本周镍价高位盘整，现货镍均价为123450元/吨，较上期上涨1220元/吨，涨幅为1.00%。消息面 上美联储降息符合预期，镍价回归理性上涨动力不足。供需端上，过剩局面不改，期镍库存增加引发担 忧，市场预估，下周镍价低位盘整概率较大。具体数据看，电解镍区间暂看118000-122000元/吨。 【铝】本周国内现货铝价冲高回落。均价20918，涨0.86%。国内继续推进"反内卷"；美联储降息25个基 点，但鲍威尔发言偏鹰，美指跌后修复，铝价回落。社库去库不畅，下游板带箔领域恢复良好，铝棒、 型材需求亦有好转。后市降息落地后宏观面驱动减弱，商品观望增浓。需求关注长假前下游及终端备货 情况，铝锭或阶段性去库。综合预计下周铝价震荡偏强，均价或窄幅下跌，周均价或在20900元/吨附近 【铅】本周铅价震荡小涨，价格重心小升。本周市场预计国庆节前有备库需求释放，叠加美联储降息预 期升温提振，多头力量表现偏强，铅价突破阻挡偏强运行，期货铅价也站上17000元/吨关口。下周铅价 预计呈现震荡格局，整体趋势或先涨后跌。随着节前备库逐步进入尾声，市场再度回归供需双弱的格 局，铅价 ...

国内库存反复，外强内弱 铝周报 2025/09/20 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止8月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4400万吨，部分电解铝置换项目投产使得运行产能小幅提升，产量373.3万 吨，同比增长1.22%。进入9月，电解铝运行产能预计延续小幅提升。 ◆ 库存&现货：国内铝锭社会库存录得63.6万吨，较上周增加1.8万吨，库存反复；保税区库存录得9.1万吨，较上周下降0.2吨；铝棒库存录得 14.4万吨，周环比上升0.3万吨。LME铝库存录得51.4万吨，环比上升，处于往年同期低位。国内华东铝锭现货贴水于期货20元/吨，LME市场 Cash/3M升水5.4美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年8月国内未锻轧铝及铝材出口53.4万吨，环比-1%，维持年内偏高水平。本周铝锭现货进口亏损环比扩 ...

中国有色矿业(01258)午后涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.85%，报13.02港元，成交额1.95亿港元。 针对媒体的指控，声称一百余名民众向法院提起请愿要求设立环境修复托管账户并存入800亿美元，公 司认为该索赔缺乏依据，已聘请当地专业律师团队应对。公司评估认为，该事件未对集团的经营或财务 状况造成重大影响，不构成内幕消息。公司提醒股东及投资者，任何非公司发布的信息未必反映公司实 际情况，投资决策应以公司在联交所网站发布的公告为准。 消息面上，中国有色矿业发布公告，针对近期媒体关于公司附属公司赞比亚谦比希湿法冶炼有限公司尾 矿坝溃坝事件的指控进行了澄清。对于尾矿坝事件，谦比希湿法已经依据政府指令全面履行修复和治理 义务，并已按照赞比亚政府出具的损害赔偿报告完成了对个体农户的赔偿工作。未来，公司将继续与赞 比亚政府紧密协作，全力推进环境影响评估和修复治理工作。 ...

锌：跨市矛盾显著，锌价偏弱运行 吴坤金 报告要点： 9 月 18 日凌晨美联储如期降息 25BP，货币政策表态不及市场预期鸽派，贵金属及有色金属短 线运行承压。伦锌远端预期虽有转弱，但当前伦锌低库存状况下，结构呈现较强 Back 结构， 近端仍有一定支撑。 张世骄（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 国内市场，从边际变动来看，当前临近冶炼企业冬季备库，锌精矿加工费出现分化。进口锌精 矿加工费（TC）延续上行，国产锌精矿 TC 均价小幅下滑，随着锌矿进口窗口关闭，预计后续 海外锌矿 TC 上行放缓，锌矿过剩程度缓解。此外，沪伦比值已运行至相对低位，若后续比价 进一步滑落，锌锭出口窗口开启后，内外正套资金平仓亦会为沪锌提供一定支撑。总体预计后 续沪伦比值仍将偏弱运行，但下行速率或将减缓，国内锌价还将维持震荡偏弱运行。 有色研究员 专题报告 2025-09-19 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 锌 锌：跨市矛盾显著，锌价偏弱运行 202 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weakly downward fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2] Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose 0.1%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues high growth. Power industry shows positive growth, PV rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose 0.09%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth is slightly positive, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Short - term supply - demand may lean towards surplus, and zinc prices may have range - bound and weakly downward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data Domestic Futures and Basis | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 79,620 | 30 | | Aluminum | 20,775 | - 20 | | Zinc | 22,035 | - 65 | | Nickel | 120,940 | - 1,630 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 120 | | Tin | 269,100 | 3,060 | [2] LME Data | Variety | LME 3 - month Previous Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 9,946 | - 71.09 | 149,775 | - 1,175 | | Aluminum | 2,705 | 4.89 | 483,775 | 0 | | Zinc | 2,913 | 24.27 | 48,975 | 0 | | Nickel | 15,335 | - 177.83 | 228,468 | 2,034 | | Lead | 2,004 | - 44.05 | 225,350 | - 2,500 | | Tin | 33,750 | - 155.00 | 2,645 | 0 | [2]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落，A 股放量 下跌 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-19 报 USDA 出口销售报告符合预期，美国生物燃料政策仍有不确定 性。国内豆粕表现疲弱，主要因市场交易中美可能达成涉及中 国采购美豆的协议。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落至 23.1 万 特朗普政府继续寻求罢免美联储理事，这意味着美联储政治化 的进一步上升，美元短期走势震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 商务部回应关于 tiktok 相关问题 综 A 股市场迎来放量大跌，权重股回调明显，监管方面有为市场降 温的考量。在政策转向的时刻，我们认为应降低多头敞口，减 小回撤。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 CONAB 预计巴西 25/26 年度大豆产量继续增加 有色金属（工业硅） 合盛硅业：部分股份质押及解质押公告 短期工业硅价格或在 8200-9200 元/吨运行，关注逢低做多机会。 能源化工（纯碱） 本周四纯碱厂家库存较周一小幅增加 今日纯碱期价有所下跌，主要是商品市场情绪整体转弱。国内 纯碱现货市场趋稳震荡，无明显波动。本周四纯碱厂家库存较 周一小幅增加。 | ...

Group 1: Company Research Summary - Southern Fund recently conducted research on three listed companies, focusing on their market dynamics and operational strategies [1][2][3] - Western Mining is considering acquiring overseas mining rights, with a focus on improving efficiency and cost control through outsourcing mining services [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead, a leading producer of lead and silver, aims for a revenue of 39.345 billion yuan and a net profit of 807 million yuan in 2024, with silver production targets set at 1,700 tons for 2025 [2] - Guorui Technology is expanding its radar business and low-altitude economy initiatives, with a commitment to cash dividends amounting to 195 million yuan for 2024, representing 31% of net profit [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Yuguang Gold Lead's gross profit margins are projected at 10.65% for gold products and 5.36% for silver products in 2024 [2] - Guorui Technology's revenue from radar business is showing significant growth, contributing positively to overall profits [3] - Southern Fund manages assets totaling 1,352.641 billion yuan, ranking 4th among 210 in total public fund management [3]