2月17日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜在1.3万美元/吨下方高位震荡，铝价则在3000美元/吨附近徘徊。 随着国内冶炼厂的持续出货，上海、纽约、伦敦三地库存均进一步大幅环比增加，叠加春节期间国际市 场交投清淡，整个有色金属市场维持震荡偏弱走势。 全球交易所铜库存突破23年来新高 2月17日，LME铜库存最新增加7975吨，增幅3.91%，至21.18万吨。自1月9日以来，LME铜库存增加了 超过50%。库存充足使得LME期铜现货月合约较三个月期铜合约贴水，二者的贴水一度处于每吨约 111.50美元的一年高位。 当前，全球三大金属交易所持有的铜库存，自2003年初以来首次突破110万吨大关。而自1月初以来，全 球交易所铜库存已激增30万吨。其中，美国芝加哥商品交易所（CME）仓库的库存占了库存增长的大 部分，该交易所的铜库存从2025年初的8.5万吨升至如今的53.6万吨。而伦敦金属交易所（LME）和上 海期货交易所（SHFE）的仓库也正经历库存加速流入。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）的铜仓库，自1月初以来，大幅增加12.7万吨，升至27.24万吨。快速增加的铜 库存，推动溢价大幅下滑，根据上海金属网的洋山铜溢价 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed companies are increasingly distributing cash dividends, with nearly 120 companies in the Shenzhen market having completed profit distribution, totaling over 37.5 billion yuan in cash dividends since December 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution Trends - Private enterprises are the main contributors to pre-holiday dividends, with nearly 70 out of the 120 companies being private, accounting for about 60% of the total [1] - The trend of multiple dividends per year and concentrated distributions before the Spring Festival is becoming a norm in the market, enhancing investor satisfaction [2] - In 2025, Shenzhen listed companies issued a total of 547.56 billion yuan in cash dividends, maintaining over 500 billion yuan for two consecutive years, indicating a positive ecosystem for dividends [2] Group 2: Company Performance and Dividend Policies - As of January 31, 2026, 1,714 out of 2,866 listed companies in Shenzhen have pre-disclosed their 2025 performance, with nearly 60% showing improved results, collectively achieving a net profit of 82.01 billion yuan, a significant increase of 155.67 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Yilian Network, a representative "cash cow" enterprise, has implemented a consistent dividend policy since its listing in 2017, with a total cash dividend exceeding 8.5 billion yuan and an average dividend rate close to 60% [3] - Companies are enhancing the transparency and predictability of their dividend policies by revising company charters and establishing medium to long-term dividend plans [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

在印尼和南美供应中断以及关税扰动推动下，铜价于2025年上涨，并延续涨势至今年，如今再度回落。 周四COMEX3月铜期货合约下跌3.02%，结算价报每磅5.7855美元，较两周前高点已回落12%。伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜下跌2.21%。 卫星数据显示1月冶炼厂活动量创近十年监测以来最低水平，加剧了铜市的不确定性。 Earth-i最新发布的SAVANT全球铜冶炼指数显示，1月全球14.3%的冶炼产能处于停产状态，较12月下降2.5%，在行业传统旺季出现显著下滑。这也是七年来 同期首次出现两位数闲置率，当前闲置率较三年均值高出6.8%。Earth-i卫星覆盖全球约95%的冶炼产能。 全球总数据掩盖了显著的区域差异。亚太地区同比降幅最为显著，尽管环比12月实现增长（该地区为唯一实现环比增长的区域），但仍贡献了超过85万吨的 产能下降量。该地区持续遭受重大扰动冲击，包括菲律宾Isabel Leyte（PASAR）冶炼厂关闭，以及印尼Gresik和Manyar冶炼厂临时停产。两家印尼工厂均因 9月Grasberg 矿泥石流事件被迫停产，该事件导致上下游作业全面受阻。 南美洲和欧洲的活跃产能均下降逾10万吨。南 ...

证券日报网讯 2月12日，豫光金铅在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司高度重视市值管理工作，始 终坚持依法合规、审慎稳健的经营理念，以提升经营业绩为核心，推动公司持续健康发展，切实维护公 司及投资者利益，积极回报广大投资者。 （编辑 姚尧） ...

春节前夕"红包"落地。一批深市公司积极派发现金红包，用实实在在的收益回馈投资者。 统计数据显示，2025年12月以来，近120家深市公司实施利润分配，累计分红超375亿元。 近年来，深市公司持续提高分红水平。回顾2025年全年，深市公司累计发放现金股利5475.59亿元，连 续两年突破5000亿元。"十四五"时期深市公司实施分红总额超2万亿元，上市公司"愿分红、常分红"的 生态逐步形成，投资者获得感明显提升，形成了良性的投资回报机制。 作为创业板上市公司中典型的"现金奶牛"，亿联网络于2025年9月实施2025年半年度权益分派，向股东 每10股派发现金红利5元，合计分配现金红利6.33亿元，占上半年净利润比例超过50%，延续了高比例 分红的传统。自2017年上市以来，公司始终将分红政策的连续性和稳定性置于公司治理的核心位置，其 《公司章程》规定，公司每年度以现金方式分配的利润应不低于当年实现的可分配利润的20%。这一硬 性比例要求从制度层面保障了投资者的回报预期。截至目前，公司累计现金分红次数达12次，累计现金 分红金额超过85亿元，平均分红率近60%。 2025年11月，歌尔股份实施2025年前三季度权益分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong upward trend in tin prices is driven by a combination of global macroeconomic factors, changes in industrial policies, and domestic stimulus measures, leading to heightened market attention on tin as a key commodity [2] Supply Side - The supply side is experiencing a clear contraction, which is a core support for rising tin prices. Domestic smelting plants are entering the holiday season, leading to a decline in operating rates and tightening of spot circulation. Additionally, international supply is affected by underwhelming recovery in Myanmar's tin mines and tightened export quotas in Indonesia, alongside geopolitical issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Demand Side - The demand side shows a "strong demand support, not a weak season" pattern, with no significant disruptions. Downstream electronic and soldering companies have largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, while new sectors like AI servers and photovoltaic welding continue to exhibit strong demand, providing core support for tin demand [4] Inventory Situation - Domestic tin ingot social inventory remains low, and while there are expectations of slight inventory accumulation, pre-holiday stocking has effectively alleviated inventory pressure. This creates a "low inventory + tight supply" effect, further strengthening price support for tin [5] Spot Trading Status - The tin market exhibits characteristics of linkage between futures and spot prices. Futures trends are driving spot price increases, with a noticeable divergence in market sentiment. Holders generally show reluctance to sell, while downstream players have mostly completed pre-holiday stockpiling and are now in a wait-and-see mode, maintaining only essential purchases [6] Short-term Outlook - In the short term, tin prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend before the holiday, with the main fluctuation range for the Shanghai tin futures contract projected between 390,000 and 402,000 yuan/ton. Low inventory, tight supply, and macro expectations provide support, but caution is advised regarding potential pullback pressures from dollar fluctuations and profit-taking [7] Operational Suggestions - It is advised not to chase high prices before the holiday. Traders should manage inventory and sell according to demand, while downstream players should prepare for potential price increases post-holiday. Investors should focus on position management and risk mitigation [8]

重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-1.50美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至22510元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水-50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22490元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22500元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-12 节前现货市场交投两淡 期货方面：2025-08-14沪锌主力合约开于22600元/吨，收于22480元/吨，较前一交易日-190元/吨，全天交易日成交 78030手，全天交易日持仓80798手，日内价格最高点达到22640元/吨，最低点达到22430元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-08-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.92万吨，较上期变化1.00万吨。截止2025-08-14，LME 锌库存为77450吨，较上一交易日变化-1025吨。 市场分析 市场进入放假状态交投两淡，几乎无报价，绝对价格波动降低。下游开工明显回落，但季节性表现节奏与往年同 步，并无额外利空表现。矿端方面，国内矿山冶炼厂均进入减产检修周期，冶炼厂采 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted significantly and then repaired, with differentiated trends. After the adjustment pressure is fully released, it can still be mainly long - biased on dips according to the strength of fundamentals [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the rare simultaneous release of non - farm payrolls and CPI in the US due to the short - term government shutdown. In China, the January social financing and inflation data will be released to verify the "good start" of the economy. Additionally, the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals market is generally volatile, with the holiday atmosphere becoming stronger and trading turning lighter. There is still volatility despite capital leaving the market as the holiday approaches. The market narrative has shifted from confidence in synchronous growth and abundant liquidity to uncertainties brought by volatility, a weak labor market, and AI - driven disruptions. The Middle East situation remains unstable, and there is still a possibility of fluctuations in overseas commodities during the holiday [12]. - China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected. US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated month - on - month, showing weak consumption at the end of the holiday season [12]. Investment Suggestions for Each Variety | Variety | Operating Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Multiple factors including weak US retail data, dovish Fed stance, potential large - scale downward revision of non - farm payrolls, strategic reserve plan by Trump, and domestic macro - logic. Supply is currently strong but may decline in February due to the holiday, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. | 98000 - 99000 | 108000 - 110000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | Dollar adjustment, overseas gas price decline, and uncertainties in Iran negotiations. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. | 23800 - 24000 | 25000 - 25500 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | For aluminum, there are new capacity releases and changes in demand in different sectors. For alumina, production capacity is increasing. For recycled aluminum alloy, there are both cost - support weakening and some positive factors. | Aluminum: 22000 - 22300; Alumina: 2300 - 2600; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 21000 - 21500 | Aluminum: 26000 - 27000; Alumina: 2900 - 3000; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 24000 - 26000 | Aluminum: Oscillating consolidation; Alumina: Oscillating weakly; Cast Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5/ - 0.5/ +0.5 | | Tin | Supply is affected by factors such as tight raw materials and approaching holidays. Demand shows a downward trend in some sectors. | 330000 - 350000 | 450000 - 460000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5 | | Lead | Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak. The market is affected by holiday factors and inventory changes. | 16400 - 16500 | 17000 - 17300 | Range - bound rebound | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by geopolitical factors, Indonesian policy adjustments, and changes in supply and demand. | 125000 - 128000 | 13800 - 140000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | | Stainless Steel | Affected by Indonesian policies, cost changes, and seasonal supply - demand patterns. | 12800 - 13000 | 13800 - 14000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | [14][15][16][17][18] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Percentage | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 102180 | 0.61% | | Zinc | 24585 | 0.53% | | Aluminum | 23660 | 0.62% | | Alumina | 2842 | 0.25% | | Tin | 394700 | 3.32% | | Lead | 16740 | 0.45% | | Nickel | 139360 | 4.51% | | Stainless Steel | 14040 | 2.18% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 22205 | 0.38% | [19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The analysis includes various non - ferrous metals futures contracts, showing information such as price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides spot prices and price change percentages of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain It presents multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [23][25][29][36][44][48][51][55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage It shows various charts for arbitrage analysis of different non - ferrous metals, including price ratios and basis spreads [58][59][61][65][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options It provides charts related to option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and the ratio of call to put open interest for different non - ferrous metals [75][76][77][79][82].