Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market in June, with a focus on core assets despite short-term downward pressure [1][2] - Institutions suggest maintaining dividend assets as a base while exploring growth and consumption opportunities, particularly in banking, computing industry chain, card games, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][5] Market Performance Review - In May, the three major indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.09%, 1.42%, and 2.32% respectively [1] - Daily trading volume in A-shares remained above 1 trillion yuan [1] Economic and Policy Factors - Economic recovery and positive domestic policies are expected to enhance market risk appetite, leading to a potential upward trend in June [2] - The stability of the Chinese economy and policy expectations may continue to favor Chinese assets, even amid global uncertainties [2] Sector Performance - In May, 25 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, defense, and banking leading the way [3] - There is a divergence among institutions regarding market style and focus for June, with some favoring technology growth while others lean towards large-cap value stocks [3][4] Investment Strategies - Suggested strategies include focusing on technology growth sectors, consumer sectors benefiting from domestic policies, and banking sectors with stable earnings and high dividends [5][6] - Specific recommendations include investing in robotics, artificial intelligence, and sectors with recent thematic catalysts, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and military electronics [5][6]

Group 1: Market Recovery - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a significant recovery, with improved supply of quality assets and increased market liquidity attracting substantial capital attention [1][2] - In May 2025, the cumulative fundraising amount in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 55.80134 billion, marking the highest monthly fundraising record since March 2021 [1] - As of June 2, 2025, the year-to-date cumulative fundraising scale has exceeded HKD 77.4 billion, approaching 90% of the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 2: Changes in Market Structure - The recovery in the IPO market is driving structural changes in the Hong Kong market, with increasing market capitalization in new consumption, technology, and biomedicine sectors [3] - Notable companies in the new consumption sector, such as Mixue Group, Pop Mart, and Laopu Gold, have seen year-to-date increases of approximately 101.55%, 157.61%, and 280.13% respectively [3] Group 3: Capital Inflows - Significant inflows of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market have become a crucial source of incremental funds driving the Hang Seng Index upward, with net inflows reaching approximately HKD 650.942 billion as of May 30, 2025 [4] - The trend of southbound capital has expanded from high-dividend sectors like banking to technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors [4] Group 4: Institutional Interest - Institutions are optimistic about sectors such as technology and consumption, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) at 20.17, significantly below historical averages [5] - The overall market valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low, attracting interest from various institutional investors [5] Group 5: Growth Potential - The combined market capitalization of "consumption + technology" in Hong Kong stocks has reached nearly 50%, with ten major technology companies accounting for close to 30% of the market capitalization [6] - The average daily trading volume in the first four months of 2025 was HKD 250.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 144% [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **new consumption** sector and its performance compared to **traditional growth stocks** such as **Dongpeng Beverage** and **Yanjing Beer** [1][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Consumption Sector**: - The new consumption sector is experiencing innovation through content marketing, particularly in personal care, health products, and daily chemicals, with valuations between **1x to 1.3x PEG** [1][4]. - The sector is expected to enter a phase of consolidation due to a moderate to high risk appetite, similar to the market conditions in **2019** [1][4]. - Key growth areas include **emotional consumption**, **new technologies (AI)**, and **new channels**, with strong performance in the first half of the year [1][8]. - **Traditional Growth Stocks**: - Companies like **Dongpeng Beverage** and **Yanjing Beer** are undervalued with PEG ratios below **1**, and profit growth is projected to exceed **30%** [1][5]. - The second quarter is expected to see accelerated sales, presenting potential absolute and relative returns [5][7]. - **Investment Recommendations for 2025**: - New consumption remains the preferred investment direction, focusing on beauty and snack sectors, with companies like **RuYuchen** and **Salted Fish** highlighted [1][6]. - Traditional growth stocks in the beverage sector, particularly **sugar-free tea** and **beer**, are also recommended due to their growth potential [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Catalysts for June 2025**: - The launch of new products in the AI and consumer sectors, such as **Xiaomi's smart glasses** and **Kid's AI toys**, is expected to drive market interest [1][9]. - The **618 promotion** is anticipated to significantly impact consumer electronics sales, with a reported **39% year-on-year increase** in sales across 12 categories as of May 31, 2025 [1][11]. - **Household Appliances**: - The household appliance sector is influenced by the **old-for-new policy** and promotional activities, with major brands like **Gree** and **Midea** expected to benefit [1][12][13]. - **Light Industry and Textile Sector**: - Investment opportunities in the light industry are concentrated in new consumption, with a focus on personal care products and electronic cigarettes [3][14]. - The textile sector shows promise in sports and home textiles, with brands like **Anta** and **Luo Lai** recommended for their growth potential [3][15]. - **Export Manufacturing**: - Caution is advised in the export manufacturing sector due to uncertainties in orders and tariffs, but some companies remain worth monitoring [18][19]. - **Pet Consumption Market**: - The pet consumption market has shown strong performance during promotional events, with significant growth in domestic brands [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future investment opportunities.

高频数据弱，牛初震荡延续 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | --- | | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [高频数据弱，牛初震荡延续 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 核心结论：2022 年以来，市场出现过多次季度级别（或以上）的上涨， 2022 年 5-8 月、2022 年 11 月-2023 年 4 月、2024 年 2-5 月，股市波动 节奏都是：底部快速上涨（政策改善）->高位震荡（高频经济数据改 善）->再次下跌（高频经济数据下滑）。政策利多带来的上涨比较快， 高频数据带来的波动比较慢（高位震荡或阴 ...

Market Overview - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 2% at one point due to global market influences and sector adjustments [1] - In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and the Hang Seng Index closed down by 0.27% at 23157.97 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a peak decline of over 3%, closing down 0.70% [2][3] - The Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.30%, while the Korean Composite Index rose by 0.05% [4] Futures and Commodities - The FTSE China A50 futures saw a decline of over 2% during the day, closing down 1.01% [5][6] - The precious metals sector performed strongly, with international gold prices rising nearly 2%, leading to significant gains in related stocks [8][11] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector in Hong Kong saw notable increases, with Long Resources up 19.44% and Tongguan Gold up 18.23% [8][9] - Other stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold, China Silver Group, and China National Gold also reported gains [8] Consumer Sector - New consumption stocks continued to attract capital, with Mixue Group rising 7.54% to reach a new high since its listing [12][13] - Pop Mart also saw an increase of 4.36%, nearing its recent historical high [15] - The consumer market in China is undergoing a transformation from "survival-type" to "self-satisfaction-type," focusing on emotional value and self-expression [17] Stablecoin Sector - Stablecoin concept stocks surged during the market pullback, with Lianlian Digital rising nearly 80% at one point and closing up 64.27% [19] - The Hong Kong government officially enacted the "Stablecoin Ordinance," establishing a licensing system for issuers of "fiat-backed stablecoins," marking a significant step in the digital asset sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has seen significant growth, with stocks like Pop Mart rising over 150% this year, driven by a shift in investment strategies among private equity firms towards new consumer products [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally a supply-side transformation, with high demand in niche markets such as trendy toys, pet food, and high-end beauty products [1][2] - External factors have prompted a shift of funds towards domestic consumption, as traditional sectors like liquor and home goods are closely tied to real estate [1][2] - The generational shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers prioritizing emotional value and personal satisfaction, is a key driver of this trend [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are refining their investment strategies, focusing on new consumption as a primary target, emphasizing the importance of emotional value and product innovation [2][3] - A systematic approach to identifying new consumption companies involves five critical questions regarding emotional value, target demographics, innovation capabilities, international potential, and growth stage [2][3] - The investment community recognizes the need to differentiate between genuine growth companies and those with inflated valuations, leading to a consensus on a "goose the genuine, discard the false" strategy [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is viewed as a blue ocean market with substantial growth potential, particularly in areas like pet economy and beauty products [5] - The ongoing evolution of consumer preferences, driven by younger generations, suggests that the new consumption revolution is just beginning [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in stock market strategies post new regulations in the public fund industry, with a focus on "left-side stock selection" becoming a key strategy as underperforming stocks gain traction [1] - Fund managers are increasingly prioritizing stocks with upward trends rather than those based on valuation metrics, indicating a departure from traditional valuation screening [1][2] - The market has shown rapid sector rotation, with a lack of strong profit-making opportunities, leading to a wide fluctuation in A-share markets [3] Group 2 - Defensive strategies are being emphasized by public fund managers due to anticipated market adjustments, suggesting a shift in stock selection thinking [4] - The current market sentiment reflects a return of risk aversion, with the overall market entering a state of oscillation and lacking clear direction [4] - Historical patterns indicate that the market typically performs well in the first quarter, but adjustments are expected in June and July, following the completion of annual reports [5][6] Group 3 - The article suggests that while the market may experience adjustments, the underlying fundamentals and liquidity provide some support, indicating that the extent of these adjustments may be limited [6] - Future market movements may depend on macroeconomic events, including domestic policies and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential for a staggered rise in response to these events [6]

Market Trends - The stock market is showing characteristics of "east hammer west stick" guerrilla tactics, with left-side stock selection becoming a key strategy post new regulations in the public fund industry [1] - Many public fund managers are focusing on right-side upward trends rather than valuation screening, indicating a shift in holding styles [1][3] - The recent market changes have led to frequent portfolio adjustments by institutional investors, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [3][4] Investment Strategies - Low valuation and profit factors have performed relatively poorly in the market this year, with public funds favoring growth strategies amid a strong valuation uplift since 2025 [3] - Fund managers are increasingly seeking stocks with compelling narratives rather than low valuation assets, even in a hot Hong Kong market [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious approach, with a shift towards defensive strategies anticipated due to expected adjustments [6][9] Economic Indicators - The A-share market remains in a wide fluctuation pattern, with a lack of strong short-term themes, although potential incremental capital inflows are noted [4] - The current economic cycle shows a flatter transmission of corporate and household deposits to profits, indicating a cautious outlook for credit expansion [4] - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, supported by fundamentals and liquidity, while adjustments may be less severe than in previous years [9] Tactical Approaches - The investment strategy is described as a combination of "prolonged battle, consumption battle, and guerrilla warfare," emphasizing the need for tactical positioning and risk management [6][7] - The market is likely to see adjustments in the second quarter, with a focus on macroeconomic events influencing future trends [8][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, targeting low-valuation large-cap stocks and sectors with potential for recovery [9]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, leading to significant gains for funds investing in Hong Kong stocks, with many fund managers increasing their allocations to Hong Kong assets [1][4] - Major indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index have outperformed other global capital market indices this year [1][4] - Hong Kong-themed funds have dominated the performance rankings, with notable funds like Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Select Fund achieving over 60% returns year-to-date [1][2] Group 2 - Funds with lower allocations to Hong Kong stocks have also benefited from the rising prices of Hong Kong assets, exemplified by the performance of the GF Growth Navigator Fund [2] - Dividend-focused funds have performed well, with the Green High Dividend Select Fund being the best-performing dividend fund this year, heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - The influx of both domestic and foreign capital into the Hong Kong market has increased liquidity, with net purchases by southbound funds reaching the third-highest level on record this year [3][4] Group 3 - Public funds are increasingly allocating to Hong Kong stocks, with a reported increase of 5.2 percentage points in allocation to Hong Kong equities, reaching a near five-year high [4] - The strong performance of Hong Kong stocks has attracted global capital, leading to valuation premiums for certain stocks compared to their A-share counterparts [4][6] - Several new Hong Kong-themed funds are in the pipeline, which could further contribute to the inflow of capital into the Hong Kong market [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance in 2023, leading global markets with significant gains in major indices, driven by low valuations and high growth potential [1][3][8]. Market Performance - As of May 27, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have both increased by over 15% year-to-date, with the former peaking at over 30% and the latter at over 48% [1][3]. - Half of the top 100 equity funds have over 20% exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with more than 30% of these funds holding over 30% in Hong Kong equities [3][4]. Fund Performance - Seven equity funds have reported over 50% net asset value growth this year, all of which have significant holdings in Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Notable funds include Guangfa Growth Navigator with a 63.43% increase and over 31% of its portfolio in Hong Kong stocks, and Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Select with a 63.27% increase and over 86% in Hong Kong equities [5]. Investment Value - Despite recent valuation recovery, Hong Kong stocks remain in a relatively reasonable range after three years of decline, with a TTM P/E ratio of 10.6 and a P/B ratio of 0.9, indicating high investment value [8]. - The Hong Kong consumer sector is characterized by low valuations and high growth potential, with the Hong Kong Consumer Index P/E at only 21 times, significantly lower than major global consumer indices [8][9]. Sector Trends - The market is witnessing a shift towards new consumption trends, with Hong Kong stocks focusing on emerging consumer sectors that have shown strong performance [9]. - Policies promoting technology innovation and domestic demand are expected to create ongoing investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [8].