原油日报 | 2026-02-10 印度俄油采购不会归零 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨81美分，收于每桶64.36美元，涨幅为1.27%；4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨99美分，收于每桶69.04美元，涨幅为1.45%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.13%，报471元/桶。 （来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月10日，墨西哥停止向古巴运送所有石油的决定，给这个燃料匮乏的国家带来了沉重打击，该岛国录得了十 年来首个无石油进口的月份。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆周一证实，鉴于特朗普威胁要对任何向古巴出售或提供石油的国 家征收关税，石油出货已"暂停"。由于古巴不公开相关信息，目前很难估算机动车燃料供应还能维持多久。在2024 年的一次罕见表态中，一名政府官员曾表示，这个拥有约1000万人口的岛国每天的汽油需求量约为8200桶，但在 制裁和封锁下，这一需求仅能勉强得到满足。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月9日，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已撤销其在主要产油区奥里诺科带大部分油田及合资项目的减产指令，推动 该国总产量接近每日100万桶。熟悉运营情况的消息人士称，上周末多个项目增产后， ...

印度突然服软，放弃购买俄罗斯石油，究竟为何如此迅速转变态度？普京失去了一个重要客户，俄乌战争的财政缺口将如何弥补？接下来，俄罗斯还能依赖 中国吗？ 换句话说，特朗普对印度加征的石油关税，表面上看是对印度实施制裁，实则加剧了欧洲的能源危机。这对于俄罗斯来说无疑是一个坏消息。印度是俄罗斯 石油的重要客户，俄罗斯石油海运出口的53%都依赖印度，日均出口约170万桶，占据俄罗斯石油出口产能的38%。这部分石油收入在一定程度上弥补了俄 罗斯因特别军事行动造成的财政缺口。然而，随着印度与美国达成协议，俄罗斯失去了这一重要客户，其能源收入将大幅缩水。市场经济的规律决定了，如 果石油出现大规模积压，价格将不可避免地下跌，尤其是美国的页岩油和委内瑞拉的劣质石油大规模进入市场，若美国继续对欧佩克施压，石油价格跳水几 乎是不可避免的，俄罗斯的财政收入也将大幅减少。 2015年，俄罗斯通过石油和天然气的出口收入达到7.1万亿卢布，占财政收入的19.1%。这笔收入不仅 能够支撑国家的日常运转，还能覆盖特别军事行动开支的60%。如今，印度选择放弃购买俄罗斯石油，无疑是在俄罗斯的能源出口领域狠狠地打了一记重 拳。这也意味着，特朗普通过这种 ...

分区域来看，吉林、青海、陕西、山东、江西汽油批发价格上涨，甘肃、安徽、上海、广东、福建、天 津、河北、河南、湖北、广西汽油批发价格下跌；黑龙江、吉林柴油批发价格上涨，甘肃、广西、青 海、河北、湖北、重庆、福建、四川、广东、辽宁柴油批发价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格小幅上 涨，柴油价格下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京2月10日电中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，2月9日，中国汽、柴油批发价格均下跌。全国92# 汽油平均批发价格为7421元／吨，较2月6日下跌6元／吨；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发价格为6073元／ 吨，较2月6日下跌15元／吨。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 从市场整体情况来看，2月6日国际原油期货价格上涨，一揽子原油平均价格变化率在正向区间波动。随 着春节假期临近，下游终端用油单位成品油消耗逐步减少，市场购销氛围趋于清淡。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.81 美元至 | | | | 64.36 美元/桶，涨幅 1.27%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘上涨 0.99 美元 | | | | 至 69.04 美元/桶，涨幅 1.45%。SC2604 以 475.2 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 9.2 元/桶，涨幅 1.97%。美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新 | | | | 指南。据美国交通部海事管理局发布的指导意见，该机构建议"悬 | | | | 挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗军队要求登 | | | | 船时口头拒绝，如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强行抵抗"。OPEC1 | | | | 月石油产量下降，抵消了包括委内瑞拉在内的部分成员国产量增 | | | 原油 | 幅--此前美国抓获马杜罗、石油封锁结束。调查显示 OPEC1 月 | 震荡 | | | 原油产量为 2834 万桶/日，较 12 月减少 6 万桶/日，其 ...

全球能源供给格局变化专题交流 20260205 摘要 布伦特原油月差显示供应过剩预期，OPEC 当前产量已满足市场需求， 一季度暂停增产以避免加剧过剩，预示短期内 OPEC 可能维持现有产量 策略。 2026 年全球油品需求增量预计略高于 2025 年，主要驱动力来自发展 中国家，特别是亚洲的化工需求，但整体需求增长相对温和。 若地缘风险导致油价持续高位，OPEC 可能考虑增产；WTI 价格跌破 61 美元将导致美国页岩油减产，但存在滞后性，南美国家将成为重要增产 来源。 美国页岩油生产放缓，2026 年增量显著低于 2025 年，主要受 WTI 价 格接近高成本区块、生产商倾向于分红及高质量井位资源消耗殆尽等因 素影响。 印度与美国签订能源进口合同，但未明确停止采购俄罗斯石油，市场认 为俄油因性价比高及政治中立仍将保持一定进口量，对俄油销售压力影 响有限。 全球原油库存持续累积，海上浮仓数量虽略有回落但仍处高位，受制裁 船舶数量增加，预示 2026 年上半年全球库存将继续显著增加。 合规油品货盘增加，供给端脆弱，影子船队难以满足需求，老旧受制裁 船舶回归合规市场难度大，游轮行业景气度有望显著改善，地缘局势僵 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月10日 (原油) 美伊均对上周五在阿曼举行的会谈给予积极评价,并计划本周继续磋商。市场短期认为局势失控风 险降低,对冲突和供应中断的担忧有所缓解。这一判断也与政治现实相符：考虑到低油价承诺及中 期选举临近，美方在选前主动升级局势的可能性较低。然而伊朗态度依然强硬，其外长强调承认铂 浓缩权利是谈判关键,双方核心分歧显著,僵局可能持续。而特朗普在委内瑞拉的成功或增强其对 伊朗的施压信心，不愿轻易让步。因此短期内对峙难有突破。布伦特油价在68-70美元区间大幅震 荡，反映出在谈判前景不明、对峙持续的背景下，市场持续计入地缘风险溢价。预计油价将保持高 波动性，且继续蕴含显著的地缘政治风险溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡反弹。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经济委 员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续，她缘仍 存在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段，观望等待波动率下降。 （铜） 隔夜铜价随贵金属反弹，沪铜节前继续减仓，市场持续关注地缘风险与长线战略金属价值 ...

中国油轮突然掉头！委内瑞拉石油断供，美国真能卡住我们脖子？背后真相让人意外 两艘中国超大型油轮在北大西洋徘徊数周后悄然返航，彻底搅动了全球能源棋局。原本它们计划前往委内瑞拉装载原油，延续两国长达十多年的"石油 换贷款"合作，但这一次，航线终点却从委内瑞拉港口变成了亚洲基地。 航运数据揭露了这一异常动向，而背后原因直指美国的强势干预——美军年初对委内瑞拉发动军事行动，控制该国石油出口渠道，甚至要求中国未来购 买委内瑞拉原油必须经过美国批准。 两艘油轮的轨迹变化并非偶然。1月初，美军在加勒比海域加强巡逻，多次扣押涉嫌违反制裁的油轮，包括一艘俄罗斯油轮"贝拉号"。面对军事威慑， 中国油轮最终选择返航，避免触碰美国制裁红线。这一举动直接导致委内瑞拉对华原油供应中断。 数据显示，自去年12月起，中国未收到任何委内瑞拉国家石油公司的货运，原本用于偿还债务的原油被美国强制改道，计划运往美国及欧洲盟友。 美国对委内瑞拉的控制手段极为强硬。美军行动后，特朗普政府宣布"无限期"接管委内瑞拉石油销售权，冻结其海外资产，并规定石油收入只能用于购 买美国商品。 这种单边操作本质是将委内瑞拉资源变为美国地缘政治筹码，试图切断中国在拉美的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: With the current oil price having risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium, considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanol has priced in a significant number of negative factors. Given the short - term volatility probability of overseas geopolitics, it is recommended to stop losses on short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Urea**: The current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - **Rubber**: Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. Although there are short - term supports such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - **Polyethylene**: The OPEC + plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of the crude oil price. The downward valuation space of PE still exists. With the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the demand side is declining [21]. - **Polypropylene**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [24]. - **PX**: Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [27]. - **PTA**: Supply is under high - level maintenance in the short term, and demand is declining due to the off - season. PTA is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to medium - term opportunities to go long [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate is still relatively high. Although imports are expected to decline slightly in February, due to the downstream off - season, the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the medium term. However, there is also a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [32]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 464.20 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, diesel, and naphtha inventories increased, while fuel oil and aviation kerosene inventories decreased. The total refined oil inventory decreased slightly [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract increased by 1.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit decreased by 64 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in most areas remained unchanged, with a slight decrease in Jiangsu. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1788 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 28 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated with the commodity market. Bulls and bears had different views. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4992 yuan. The overall operating rate increased slightly, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory and social inventories changed accordingly [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene both decreased. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The operating rates of downstream products had different changes [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 91 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory increased [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 20 yuan to 7192 yuan. The operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some enterprises had production status changes. Import volume decreased, and inventory increased [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 26 yuan to 5192 yuan. The PTA operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Social inventory increased, and processing fees increased [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3739 yuan. The overall supply - side operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased. Port inventory increased, and different production methods had different profit situations [31].

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]

Group 1 - The US is set to lower the most-favored-nation tariff on Bangladeshi goods to 19%, down from 20% last year, which was previously reduced from 37%. This includes a mechanism for certain textiles to receive full tariff exemptions, providing support to Bangladesh's garment industry [1][6] - The US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, plans to visit Venezuela to discuss the future of its state oil company, asserting that the Trump administration's interest in Venezuela is not primarily about oil [6] - The White House's National Economic Council Director, Hassett, anticipates a slight decline in US employment growth data, which is expected to reflect structural changes in the labor market rather than a weakening economic momentum. The January non-farm payroll report is expected to show an addition of approximately 70,000 jobs [6][1] Group 2 - The UK Prime Minister's communications director, Tim Allen, resigned, marking the second high-profile resignation in two days following the resignation of the Prime Minister's office director, Morgan McSweeney, due to a scandal involving a former ambassador [2][6] - The Governor of the Bank of France, Villeroy, unexpectedly announced his early resignation, set for June, despite his term originally scheduled to end in October 2027. He is viewed as a representative of the dovish faction within the European Central Bank [7] - The European Central Bank has urged the EU to expedite the digital euro initiative, warning that delays could lead to increased reliance on non-EU tech companies in digital payments and financial infrastructure [7] Group 3 - Japan's Ministry of Health reported a 1.3% decrease in real wages per capita for 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline due to ongoing inflation [7] - Japanese investors are projected to net purchase 464 billion yen of German government bonds in 2025, the highest since 2017, while also net buying French and Italian bonds for the first time since 2019 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, net purchases of US Treasuries have decreased by 43%, reaching the lowest level since 2022 [7]