Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline yesterday, with the three major indices showing minor drops. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.17% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking the fifth consecutive day with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] - Sectors such as liquor, Huawei HiSilicon, CPO, and humanoid robots saw significant gains, while insurance, military, securities, and gaming sectors experienced notable declines [1] Investment Insights Rare Earths - Huatai Securities emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and anticipates a price increase, projecting that the price center for rare earths will continue to rise from 2025 to 2026. The strategic significance of rare earths has become more pronounced in the context of "de-globalization" [2] - The active bidding for praseodymium and neodymium metals that started in July reflects strong market bullish sentiment, suggesting that related companies' performance is expected to improve continuously [2] Solar Thermal Power - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the potential for solar thermal power to undergo a qualitative change in the energy storage era, noting its importance in building a new power system. The installed capacity of solar thermal power in China is projected to reach 838.2 MW by the end of 2024, with an additional 300 MW expected to be added from 2021 to 2024 [3] - The report indicates that the industry still has significant growth potential, despite historical fluctuations in installed capacity due to economic viability and policy uncertainties. Current pricing policies in Qinghai province suggest that solar thermal power is beginning to demonstrate economic feasibility [3] Building Materials - Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on opportunities in the building materials sector, anticipating a recovery in demand due to expected policy support and improved channel layouts. Companies with product quality and brand advantages are highlighted as potential leaders in the consumer building materials industry [4] - In the cement sector, stricter supply controls are expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, leading to a potential increase in cement prices and profitability for regional leaders [4] - For fiberglass, the report suggests that demand recovery driven by emerging markets and price increases for mid-to-high-end products could lead to a full-year performance recovery for leading companies [4]

Group 1 - The consumption building materials industry leaders are expected to benefit from improved demand due to anticipated policy support and enhanced channel layout and product expansion [1] - In the cement sector, stricter supply controls are expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, leading to a price increase and potential profit recovery for regional leaders [1] - The fiberglass industry is projected to benefit from demand recovery driven by emerging markets, with expectations for price increases in mid-to-high-end products and overall performance recovery for leading companies [1] Group 2 - In the glass sector, the anticipated increase in cold repair production lines is expected to gradually optimize the supply-demand landscape [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] - The mid - term outlooks for specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are also "oscillation" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the transition between the off - season and peak season approaches, market concerns about the terminal demand for steel are rising. Although the seventh round of price increases for coke has started, the futures prices of coal and coke are falling. The production restriction before major events is slightly less than expected, and inventory pressure at the downstream of steel is emerging. The price is expected to oscillate within the current range in the near term [1][2] - The trading focus of the black building materials market is gradually shifting from the expectation of anti - involution on the supply side to the actual supply - demand situation. The weak reality is suppressing prices, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Overseas mines' shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly rebounded, slightly higher than last year's level. The total supply is relatively stable, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention [2][7] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly, but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and the possibility of short - term production cuts by steel enterprises due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2][7] - **Inventory**: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The fundamental bearish drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, but some mines' production is still restricted due to accidents and other factors. Short - term supply disturbances will continue due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" policy. The short - term impact of the adjustment of the error threshold between the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically dissipated, and the average daily customs clearance still exceeds 1,000 vehicles [2][12] - **Demand**: The seventh round of price increases for coke has started, profits are gradually recovering, production is slightly increasing, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, spot trading is weakening, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][12] - **Outlook**: Supply disturbances will continue, and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in supply before the parade. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term futures market still has support [2][12] Coke - **Supply**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the overall profit of coke enterprises turned positive, production started to improve, and production increased slightly. However, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and the seventh round of price increases has started [11] - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month. Under the weakening of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased. Steel mills' inventory replenishment before the parade was active, and the arrival of goods has improved [11] - **Outlook**: As the parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions for coke. The degree of production restriction for coke enterprises may be greater than that of steel mills. The short - term supply of coke will remain tight, and it will take time for the seventh round of price increases to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the impact of possible parade - related production restriction policies on the production and transportation of coke and steel enterprises [11] 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: Manganese silicon manufacturers pre - purchased raw material inventory before the parade, and the recent inventory replenishment is coming to an end. The trading atmosphere at ports is cooling down. With the increase in arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has started to decline from its high level [2][16] - **Supply - Demand**: Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel is still at a high level. The resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing in an environment of profit recovery. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [2][16] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support. However, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and there may be downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long term [16] Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: Industry profits have improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, leading to a gradual increase in ferrosilicon production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [17] - **Demand**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking is still resilient. In the metal magnesium sector, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but downstream enterprises are trying to push down prices, and the magnesium ingot price remains stable overall [17] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the future, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals in the medium - to - long term. The upside potential of the price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and adjustments in electricity costs [17] 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly accumulating, and there are many market sentiment disturbances [2][13] - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand is declining. Although the number of deep - processing orders has increased month - on - month, the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased significantly to a high for the year, indicating speculative purchasing by downstream enterprises. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the sales of intermediate and upstream products have declined significantly [13] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are relatively high. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward when returning to fundamental trading [13] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase [15] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out, and the demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall inventory replenishment sentiment of downstream enterprises is weak, and they resist high prices [15] - **Outlook**: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. After the increase in the futures market, spot trading is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance of production, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed little. There is a large amount of rebar delivery resources arriving at ports, and the inventory of rebar has increased significantly. The inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coil has slowed down, and the inventories of medium - thick plate and cold - rolled coil have increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has declined, and inventory is accumulating, showing off - season characteristics [7] - **Demand**: The speculative sentiment is poor, and the overall spot trading of steel is weak. The export orders for hot - rolled coil have improved, and domestic demand has some resilience [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally in the off - season. Both supply and demand will be affected around the parade. The blast furnace production restriction depends on air quality, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The futures market may fluctuate more violently. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and future attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [7] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly month - on - month, with narrow fluctuations during the week [9] - **Demand**: The profit of electric arc furnaces is acceptable, and daily consumption has increased to a new high for the year. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory in factories has decreased slightly, and the number of available inventory days has dropped to a relatively low level [9] - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel is stable, and demand is strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. Attention should be paid to the repair progress of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [4]. - The short - term price of iron ore may be slightly adjusted due to the weakening of terminal demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent shipping progress and the contradiction between high - level hot metal production and terminal demand [7]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate opportunistically. The final price will move closer to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream terminal demand [8][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in major production areas and the impact of policies [13][14][15]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [17][18]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3155 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3419 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The positions of both decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation accelerated, while hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are rising marginally, with high production but insufficient demand [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 1577 hands to 44.89 million hands [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average hot - metal output increased, and port and steel mill inventories both increased. Terminal demand weakened, and short - term prices may be adjusted [7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 18, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed flat at 6026 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) fell 0.88% to 5880 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: Investment positions are recommended to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate according to their own situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment still disturbs the market, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, down 2.27% (- 200). The weighted contract position increased by 20923 hands to 552911 hands [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52280 yuan/ton, down 0.87% (- 460). The weighted contract position decreased by 1658 hands to 321203 hands [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, inventory clearance was limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe was 1160 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day. The national floating - glass inventory increased, and the inventory days increased. The market sentiment has been digested, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may rise [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment, but the rise is limited by demand [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, reflecting the current market situation of these two industries [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 11th to August 18th, the prices of various glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1173.0 to 1164.0, a weekly decrease of 9.0; the FG09 contract price dropped from 1068.0 to 1030.0, a weekly decrease of 38.0 [3] - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production and sales rate was 114, Hubei's was 85, East China's was 103, and South China's was 93 [3] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods and regions also changed. For instance, the profit of North China's coal - fired glass decreased from 247.8 to 229.2, a weekly decrease of 18.6; the 09FG disk natural gas profit decreased from - 300.0 to - 342.4, a weekly decrease of 42.4 [3] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 11th to August 18th, the prices of various soda ash products also had fluctuations. The price of Shahe heavy soda increased from 1240.0 to 1260.0, a weekly increase of 20.0; the SA05 contract price rose from 1400.0 to 1442.0, a weekly increase of 42.0 [3] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash continued to accumulate slightly, and the heavy - soda delivery price in Hebei was about 1220, and about 1260 when delivered to Shahe. Downstream customers replenished at low prices but did not accept high - priced goods [3]

行业配置上，金鹰基金建议均衡配置应对板块快速轮动。具体而言，科技方向，AI海外产业链和创新 药等景气方向在此前已经历资金集中配置，市场交易趋于拥挤，增量资金存在恐高情绪，或将转向低位 品种。其建议关注与AI主线相关、但当前估值赔率更具性价比的细分方向，如AI应用及半导体先进制 程。 价值方向，随着市场逐渐走强，券商、保险、金融IT等非银方向或有望迎来估值和业绩的双重改善。同 时，美联储降息预期的打开，以及2026年海外货币与财政"双宽"格局的确立，将利好出口产业链，以有 色、家电为代表的外需相关板块或具备配置价值。 此外，在"反内卷"进程持续推进的背景下，其建议关注光伏、玻璃、钢铁等行业，以及近期政策重点指 导的行业。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 聂林浩）A股近期放量上涨。8月18日，上证指数刷新近十年来新高，沪深 两市成交额已连续多个交易日破2万亿元。 金鹰基金表示，国内方面，上周公布的M1、M2增速等金融 数据超出预期，居民"存款搬家"现象成市场热议话题。在低利率环境下，权益市场仍有较大资金容纳空 间，有望在赚钱效应中持续提振市场风偏。海外方面，其认为9月美联储降息或是基准情形，未来随着 特朗普引导市场预期 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the reconstruction of Ukraine, with an estimated total cost of approximately $524 billion, which is nearly three times Ukraine's GDP for 2024. Key areas of investment include housing ($84 billion), transportation ($78 billion), energy ($68 billion), industrial and commercial sectors ($64 billion), and agriculture ($55 billion) [3]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of domestic international engineering companies in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, despite the U.S. leading the efforts. Companies such as China Communications Construction Company, China Chemical Engineering, China National Materials, and China Steel International are noted as potential beneficiaries [4]. - In the cement sector, a policy to limit overproduction is expected to enhance capacity utilization, with a forecasted recovery in demand and price increases starting in August [4]. - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, with supply-demand imbalances persisting. However, the report anticipates that environmental regulations will accelerate the industry's cold repair processes [4]. - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [5]. - The consumer building materials sector is projected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases across various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards [5]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market price is stabilizing, but demand remains low due to seasonal factors, with July's production down 5.6% year-on-year to 146 million tons [9]. Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with regional prices dropping by 1-4% per weight box. The report predicts ongoing price fluctuations due to limited demand improvement [14]. Company Announcements - Three companies reported their mid-year results: - **Sanhe Building Materials**: Revenue of 5.816 billion yuan, up 0.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 107.53% [17]. - **Puyang Refractories**: Revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, but net profit down 48.3% [18]. - **Tianan New Materials**: Revenue of 1.444 billion yuan, up 3.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.59% [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly in AI materials and traditional building materials entering a price increase season [1][3]. Core Insights - The AI materials market continues to expand, driven by the anticipation of mass production in the AI industry chain, which is expected to boost demand for related products [2][3]. - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with consumption fundamentals expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [10][24]. - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with price increases already observed in the Yangtze River Delta region [30][33]. Summary by Sections AI Materials - The M9 production for switches is expected to ramp up ahead of schedule, with core Q fabric suppliers also increasing production capacity [2]. - The demand for low dielectric fabrics is anticipated to rise alongside the production of GB200 and GB300 cabinets [2][3]. - The overall production ramp-up is seen as a key support for market trends [2]. Cement Industry - The opening of major infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet is expected to enhance market confidence and drive demand for cement [8][30]. - The cement market has seen a slight price increase, with certain regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 RMB per ton [33][34]. - The report highlights a potential supply reduction in the North China region due to planned production cuts for air quality improvement [32][33]. Building Materials - The report notes a significant policy shift in Beijing aimed at stimulating the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact consumption building materials [10][24]. - Companies in the consumption building materials sector are beginning to stabilize their earnings, with expectations of improved profitability in the coming quarters [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost management and pricing strategies among leading companies in the sector [25][26]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is currently facing price pressures, with average prices declining [41][42]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, which may lead to increased costs for glass manufacturers [42][43]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market challenges, with a focus on profitability in their automotive glass segment [44].