Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 1.42% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 and the Wind All A Index, which declined by 0.45% and 1.07% respectively [4] - The report suggests that strategic infrastructure projects in the central and western regions may become a focus for investors, particularly in areas like hydropower and major construction projects [4] - The real estate sector is nearing a clearing phase, leading to improved supply dynamics, which may benefit leading companies in the industry [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price drop in cement, with the national average price at 356.8 RMB/ton, down 3.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and 36.0 RMB/ton from the same period last year [4][20] - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last week but an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [25] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - The average shipment rate for cement is 44.0%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week and 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The report anticipates that the cement industry will maintain a higher profit margin compared to last year due to improved supply-demand balance and ongoing policy support for domestic demand [12][19] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The report indicates that the profitability of glass fiber remains resilient, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics continuing to grow [13] - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance, benefiting leading companies with strong product structures [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Qibin Group, which may benefit from industry capacity reductions and diverse business growth [15] 3. Renovation and Building Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in the renovation sector [16] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from government subsidies are recommended for investment consideration [16]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

Core Points - The article highlights the increasing environmental risks faced by listed companies in China, with a focus on recent penalties imposed for violations of environmental regulations [11][12][20] - A total of 8 listed companies were identified as having environmental risks, affecting approximately 633,100 shareholders [15][16] Group 1: Company Penalties - Shaanxi Energy Holdings Company was fined 500,000 yuan for failing to construct pollution prevention facilities as required by environmental assessments [17] - Lihua Co., Ltd. was penalized 210,000 yuan for exceeding emissions of air pollutants by its subsidiary [11][17] - Hualing Precision Engineering was fined 384,000 yuan for not re-evaluating environmental protection facilities after significant changes in production processes [18] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The article discusses the importance of environmental risk management as a critical aspect of corporate governance, alongside financial and operational factors [12][20] - It emphasizes the role of environmental information transparency in the capital market, facilitated by the collection and analysis of data from various government sources [11][20] Group 3: Broader Implications - The increasing focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors among investors highlights the need for companies to prioritize sustainable development [20] - The article notes that the public's right to access environmental information is supported by legal frameworks, enhancing accountability for companies [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen SIDA Instrument Co., Ltd. has become a model for energy conservation and carbon reduction by upgrading old energy-consuming equipment, saving approximately 1.7 million kWh of electricity annually [1][4]. Group 1: Policy and Government Initiatives - The "Two New" policy, introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023, aims to promote large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of consumer goods [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a support fund of 200 billion yuan for equipment upgrades by 2025, with a high subsidy rate and broad coverage in the energy-consuming equipment sector [5][6]. - Guangdong has actively responded to national policies by organizing multiple specialized events since April 2023 to facilitate the replacement of energy-consuming equipment [4][8]. Group 2: Industry and Market Dynamics - Guangdong is the largest province in terms of refrigeration energy consumption, with over 130,000 central air conditioning units, more than 30% of which are over ten years old [6][11]. - The energy-saving potential from upgrading outdated equipment, such as central air conditioners and industrial boilers, is estimated to save around 1.7 million tons of standard coal and stimulate over 10 billion yuan in investment [6][12]. - The government has facilitated direct discussions between users, manufacturers, and experts to enhance technology-market connections, promoting energy-saving upgrades [8][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Industry Development - The ongoing energy-saving initiatives and technological advancements are expected to create a complete "energy-saving industry chain," contributing to Guangdong's dual carbon goals while improving production efficiency and product quality [13][14]. - The joint application policy encourages collaboration among manufacturers, local state-owned enterprises, and energy service companies to enhance project competitiveness and access to funding [12].

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With production profit at a low level, industry cold repairs increasing, and开工率 and产量 dropping to historical lows. However, terminal demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 980 yuan/ton to 998 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.84%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass increased from 1044 yuan/ton to 1052 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.77%. The main basis decreased from 64 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton, a decline of 15.63% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1052 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profitability of coal production lines has recovered, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [19]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4][29]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.887 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.29% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the surplus is 1.51 million tons [45]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - **Negative factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. With the arrival of the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and the glass factory inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. - The outlook for each variety is as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [7] - Iron ore: Oscillation [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [8] - Coke: Oscillation [8] - Coking coal: Oscillation [11] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [15] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is affected by external disturbances and is in an off - season. The prices of each variety are oscillating. The overall demand is weak, and there is a downward pressure, but the upward driving force is also insufficient [1][2]. - After the positive factors of coking coal are digested, there is no new driving force for the time being. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a tight balance. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are in the off - season, and there is not much demand increase. The iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly, and the supply of coking coal and coke has not improved significantly, so the downward pressure is relatively large [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines start to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. The shipment volume is expected to increase seasonally and may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited [2][7]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production have slightly decreased, but it is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the arrival volume decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, the arrival volume will remain high, and there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited [2][7]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are seasonally weakening but not exceeding expectations. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that there is little possibility of a significant decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 2. Carbon Element - Supply: Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and the coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future [3]. - Demand: The coke production has declined from a high level. Under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses, the coke enterprises' production is expected to further decline [3]. - Inventory: During the price - cut cycle, the coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory is not high. The upstream coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved [3]. - Outlook: The contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream coking coal inventory reduction pressure remains. The short - term price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3. Alloys Silicomanganese - Cost: In the manganese ore market, some ore varieties have a shortage of circulating resources. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and the downstream procurement bargaining is more difficult [14]. - Supply: Some factories in Guizhou have few operating enterprises; some factories in Yunnan have plans to resume production; some factories in Guangxi are expected to shut down for maintenance; there are still situations of resuming production and new production capacity in the north. The production is expected to increase [14]. - Demand: The black market is in the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of pressing prices. The steel tender price is around 5600 yuan/ton, in line with market expectations [14]. - Outlook: The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the manganese ore market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The semi - coke market is stable [15]. - Supply: The manufacturers' profits are not good, the overall supply level is still at a low position, and the manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices [15]. - Demand: Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory. The metal magnesium market demand is weak, and the price is rising weakly [15]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, but individual manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production. The supply - demand gap tends to be filled, and the cost may still have a drag. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 4. Glass - Demand: The demand in the off - season is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weakening month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price has declined, and the production and sales are still weak [6]. - Supply: Recently, one production line is planned to be shut down for cold repair due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are still five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists [6]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory is slightly reduced, and the mid - stream inventory continues to decline, with repeated mood swings [6]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the price - cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. 5. Soda Ash - Supply: The pattern of oversupply has not changed, the maintenance is gradually resuming, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. - Demand: The heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting of float glass is expected to increase, but the daily melting growth of photovoltaic glass may not be sustainable [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will still decline [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the optimization of real estate policies in Guangzhou, which includes the cancellation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates to stimulate housing consumption [6][20] - The report highlights a decline in cement shipments and an increase in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand in the real estate sector [7][24] - Recommendations include focusing on domestic substitution chains and African chains, with leading companies being the main investment theme for the year [9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Policy - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates. The city aims to support housing consumption and urban renewal projects, with a fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan for the renovation of urban villages and old communities by 2025 [6][20] Cement Market - In early June, the average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions was 45.5%, down approximately 2.3 percentage points month-on-month and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, reflecting weak demand [7][24][25] - The national average price of cement was 365.32 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.23 yuan per ton month-on-month and a decrease of 29.03 yuan per ton year-on-year [25] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market showed a weak price trend, with a total inventory of 60.45 million weight boxes, an increase of 34,000 weight boxes week-on-week. The production capacity utilization rate was 81.56% [8][37] - The average price of glass was 71.15 yuan per weight box, down 0.44 yuan per weight box month-on-month and down 19.00 yuan per weight box year-on-year [37] Recommended Companies - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials, Meijia Xincai, and Puyang Huicheng are recommended due to their strong positions in the market. For the African chain, Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a leading player with advantages in production and branding [9] - The report also suggests focusing on companies with strong business models and growth potential, such as Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby, which are expected to benefit from urban renewal policies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][77]. Core Views - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for new policies to stimulate growth. Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for increased government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including land repurchase and urban renewal initiatives [1][3]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with regional variations. Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in enterprise shipment rates to 45.7% [2][24]. - Future price trends are expected to remain volatile due to insufficient demand support [2][24]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1229.90 CNY/ton, down 1.63% week-on-week. Both supply and demand are weak, leading to high inventory levels [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market is also experiencing low demand, with prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels declining [2][41]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali roving yarn is stable, while electronic yarn prices are experiencing slight increases due to tight supply. The average price for non-alkali roving yarn is 3687.50 CNY/ton, down 4.08% year-on-year [2][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and urban renewal demands, recommending companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials [3][5]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [3][5]. - In the construction sector, state strategic projects are expected to boost demand, with recommendations for companies like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [3][5]. Real Estate Data - Recent data shows a decrease in new housing sales, with a 1.2% drop in the average transaction area for new homes in major cities [67][68]. - The report notes a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [67][68].