1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, highlighting the likelihood of a framework agreement being reached by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiations - Most U.S. trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement by July 9, after which detailed discussions will continue [1][7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. might extend negotiation deadlines for countries engaging in good faith discussions, such as the EU [6][8]. - President Trump expressed a willingness to extend negotiation deadlines but deemed it unnecessary, stating that the U.S. is negotiating with about 15 economies [6][8]. Group 2: EU's Position - The EU anticipates that negotiations will extend beyond the July 9 deadline, aiming for a principle agreement before focusing on specifics [7][9]. - The EU's goal is to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on sectors like steel and automobiles, while acknowledging the challenge of eliminating the 10% baseline tariff [9][11]. - EU officials are preparing for potential retaliatory measures against the U.S. if negotiations do not yield a fair agreement, including tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods [11][12]. Group 3: Other Countries' Negotiations - Trade discussions with India and Japan are ongoing but have seen limited progress, particularly on agricultural issues and automotive tariffs [13][15]. - India is resistant to U.S. demands regarding genetically modified crops, while seeking tariff exemptions [14]. - Japan faces challenges with U.S. automotive tariffs, which remain a significant barrier to reaching an agreement [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].

2025年06月25日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 氧化铝：底部震荡 | 7 | | 铝合金：淡季走深 | 7 | | 锌：窄幅调整 | 9 | | 铅：中期偏强 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单加速去化，近月合约虚实比偏高 | 15 | | 工业硅：仓单再次去化，关注上方空间 | 17 | | 多晶硅：逢高空配思路为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term. Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict. The stock market's high - risk preference may continue, and the high - level oscillation pattern will persist. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through. Most commodities face supply - side pressures, and their prices are expected to be under pressure, while some may have short - term trading opportunities [12][16][18][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - International Atomic Energy Agency plans to return to Iranian nuclear facilities. Powell's congressional stance is hawkish, negating short - term rate - cut expectations, so the Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [10][12]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell said the US is not in a recession. If inflation or the labor market is weak, the Fed may cut rates early. Bostic believes there is no need to cut rates currently but expects a 25 - basis - point cut later this year. Gold prices have fallen by more than 1% due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment after the Iran - Israel cease - fire [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained 3400 points. Six departments have issued a document to promote consumer finance support. The stock market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, and the high - risk preference may continue, with the high - level oscillation pattern persisting [17][18]. - Investment advice: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in June was lower than expected. Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see attitude and did not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut. After the Iran - Israel cease - fire, the market risk preference has improved significantly, and the technology sector has led the index [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to oscillate weakly at the current level [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations and 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF shows its intention to protect liquidity. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through [23][24]. - Investment advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in April increased to 3.04 million tons. The palm oil market is affected by the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the decline in crude oil prices. The market is in a game between production increases in the origin and inventory accumulation in the sales area [26]. - Investment advice: Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and then gradually arrange long positions in the far - month contracts [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - It is predicted that Brazil's sugar production will increase by 2.7% in the 2025/26 season, and the global market may have a supply surplus of 2.6 million tons. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the international sugar price is under pressure from the supply side [29][30]. - Investment advice: The rebound space and sustainability of Zhengzhou sugar are limited [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn - starch exports in May continued to rise. The export policy has been relaxed, but the export proportion is still relatively small. The core factor of the starch supply - demand situation may be the cassava substitution [31][32]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see mainly [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of Northeast corn is running strongly, but the futures price has started to fall. The warehouse receipt pressure may appear, and the old - crop contracts are expected to oscillate narrowly [33]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for new - crop contracts 11 and 01 when the production situation is clearer [33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference of imported steam coal exists. The coal price has eased in June, and the demand has a seasonal recovery. The short - term price is expected to be stable [33][34]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be stable [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Malaysia has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese cold - rolled steel coils. The iron ore price is in an oscillating market, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [36]. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate weakly, with the spot weaker than the futures [37]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of organic silicon DMC has been slightly adjusted upwards. The resumption of production of industrial silicon is greater than the reduction, and the demand is not improving significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has extended the informal mining temporary license to the end of the year. The macro - level factors for copper are mixed in the short term. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The copper price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [43]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy for single - side trading and wait patiently for cross - period layout opportunities [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In May, the import and export volume of Philippine nickel ore increased. The nickel market has a tight supply of high - grade nickel ore, and the nickel - iron supply is expected to be in surplus in June. The pure - nickel price is oscillating weakly [44][45]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The market is trading the expectation of improved demand. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the supply of recycled lead has decreased. The demand is in the off - season and is expected to be weak until July [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the short term, and wait and see for cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount. Some zinc smelters are resuming production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthening, but the inventory accumulation height is limited. The zinc price decline may be a tug - of - war process [49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies, pay attention to the 21500 - 21600 yuan support level, and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [49]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium projects have obtained approvals or financing. The LC2507 contract has a high position, and attention should be paid to the position - reduction rhythm before entering the delivery month [51]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions at the current level, consider partial profit - taking for previous short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [52]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude - oil inventory has decreased. Oil prices have continued to fall, and the risk premium has been significantly reversed. The supply of the crude - oil market has high potential for increase in the medium - to - long term [53][54]. - Investment advice: The short - term risk premium will be reversed [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Some urea plants have had failures and stopped production. The urea price is falling, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. The key variable lies in the export [57]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in export quotas and overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle - chip factories has been partially reduced. The polyester raw material price has fallen significantly, and the bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of the impact of raw - material price fluctuations [61]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market is oscillating at a low level. The fundamentals are under pressure, with supply stable and demand weak [62]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in the Shahe market is stable. The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will be relatively stable. The price has downward adjustment space [64]. - Investment advice: The short - term rebound may be difficult to sustain, and the price has downward adjustment space [64]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene has been reduced. The supply of styrene is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The pure - benzene price may have some repair space [67]. - Investment advice: The styrene price depends on the oil price and supply disturbances, and pay attention to the impact of the home - appliance subsidy policy [67]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has risen. The carbon - market trading has increased slightly, but the supply - demand structure is expected to be loose this year, and the price is under pressure [68]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [69].

Group 1 - Spot gold declined by 1.35%, closing at $3323.69 per ounce, and reached a daily low of $3295.62 after a brief rise [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.71%, ending at $3336.90 per ounce, showing a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index decreased by 1.91%, closing at 203.81 points [1] Group 2 - Spot silver dropped by 0.48%, closing at $35.9258 per ounce, with a W-shaped pattern observed during the day [1] - COMEX silver futures fell by 0.90%, ending at $35.860 per ounce, with a daily low of $35.195 reached [1] Group 3 - COMEX copper futures increased by 0.18%, closing at $4.8945 per pound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It evaluates the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for each commodity based on supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic factors, and industry - specific events. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. US PMI data exceeded expectations while European PMI data was weak. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and Glencore stated that the mountain ISA smelter was difficult to continue operating. Demand showed some resilience, with premiums for flat - water copper in East and South China at 70 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the London structure at a 392 - dollar back [1]. - Trading strategy: Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 20,365 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 435 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2,559 dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: LME has forced traders holding near - month contract positions exceeding available inventory to reduce their positions to limit spot liquidity risk. Aluminum ingots have seen inventory accumulation (15,000 tons) for the first time since June. It is necessary to observe whether the inventory accumulation is continuous, and aluminum prices may come under pressure to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 2,906 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 288 yuan/ton. On June 20, India had a transaction of 30,000 tons at a price of 366 dollars/ton (the previous transaction was also at 366 dollars/ton) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production capacity continued to be released, and the operating capacity increased. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity was stable [1]. - Trading strategy: The alumina futures price encountered resistance when rising. In the medium term, the pressure of production capacity release and inventory accumulation persists, and the price may continue to operate at a low level [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 09 contract closed at 7,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 303,119 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 439 lots to 54,184 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, spot prices stopped falling. On the supply side, there was no significant contraction, and the number of open furnaces increased by 5. Weekly inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and after the market decline, the visible inventory of warehouse receipts turned into invisible inventory. On the demand side, the production of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared to May, and there are plans for复产 this week. The production of organic silicon was relatively stable, and the decline in industrial chain prices widened. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [1]. - Trading strategy: If the futures price continues to rise, it may face hedging pressure, and the rebound of the market may be limited. Before there is an effective reduction in actual supply during the flood season, maintain a bearish view. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level. Consider shorting lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to the on - site sentiment at the Leshan industry conference [1]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 08 contract closed at 30,615 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 10,054 lots to 78,183 lots. The 11 contract closed at 30,030 yuan/ton. Today, the warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 2,600 lots (7,800 tons) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production changed little, and the industry inventory decreased slightly. There are still expectations of复产 in the future, and the market is pessimistic about the joint production cuts by leading enterprises. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, which is related to the production scheduling of some enterprises' previous orders in the third quarter due to limited quotas. The expected production schedule for the third quarter is still declining quarter - on - quarter. According to the balance sheet, inventory will start to accumulate in July [1]. - Trading strategy: The industry's复产 plan exceeded expectations. In the short term, it is recommended to go short on the 07 contract on rallies. Pay attention to the industry's production cut plan [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined, affected by favorable weather in the production area and the sharp drop in crude oil prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply from South America was abundant in the near term, and the growth of US soybeans was normal in the long term. On the demand side, South America was the main influence in the short term, US soybean exports were seasonally weak, but the US biodiesel policy was beneficial to the demand for soybean crushing [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate strongly; in China, although there will be a large arrival of soybeans later, demand will also remain high. The domestic market will follow the international cost side [2]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2509 contract corrected, and the spot price of corn declined slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: This year, the supply - demand situation has tightened marginally, and the grain rights have shifted to channels, increasing the bargaining power of channels. The expected import volume of substitutes will decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. The wheat support - price purchase has boosted the wheat price, which will also drive up the corn price. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Trading strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain and the wheat support - price purchase, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and Malaysia's production in May increased by 5% month - on - month. On the demand side, the exports from the production area improved month - on - month. ITS showed that exports，from June 1 - 20 increased by 14% month - on - month [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the volatility of palm oil will increase, affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and other factors. The trading difficulty has increased. Pay attention to crude oil and biodiesel policies [2]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2508 contract performed strongly, and the spot price was stable [2]. - Fundamentals: Due to breeding losses, the culling of old hens is expected to decrease temporarily. Supply remains high, and the hot and humid weather is not conducive to egg storage, but low prices stimulate demand. With strong supply and weak demand and cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading strategy: With sufficient supply and cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate [2]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig 2509 contract performed strongly, and the spot price of pigs rose [2]. - Fundamentals: Large - scale farms have been continuously reducing the weight of pigs recently, and the pressure to sell at the end of the month has decreased. Small - scale farmers, on the contrary, continue to hold back pigs to gain weight. At the end of the month, the supply from the breeding side will decrease, and the entry of second - fattening will support the price. The pig price is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium term, the supply will continue to increase, and the center of the pig price will gradually decline. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of second - fattening [2]. - Trading strategy: With reduced supply at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Energy Chemicals PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 4,897, down 0.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: PVC was driven up by the rise in crude oil prices and then retreated. On the supply side, the plants of Wanhua, Bohua, etc. are gradually being put into production, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The upstream operating rate is 80%, and maintenance has gradually ended. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing. On June 19, the new sample of PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month and 37.97% year - on - year. India has postponed the BIS anti - dumping investigation until December, which is beneficial to exports. The carbide price is 2,400 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the future. The spot price has stopped rising, with 4,800 yuan in East China and 4,870 yuan in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. Since there is no driving force for a rebound, consider selling call options above 4,950 [4]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX is 899 dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,430 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 5,260 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 264 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: On the cost side of PX, domestic production still has maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shandong Weilian, and the load increase is limited. Overseas, a 400,000 - ton plant of South Korea's GS has restarted, a 500,000 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos has unexpectedly shut down, plants in Iran and Israel have shut down, the restart of a Saudi plant has been postponed, and Vietnam's NSRP has reduced production. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level. For PTA, Hengli Dalian and Fuhai Chuang are implementing maintenance plans, Yisheng New Materials has briefly reduced production, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant has restarted. Overall, the supply has decreased, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. After the peripheral factors drove the market last Friday, there was concentrated replenishment at the terminal; since the weekend, downstream enterprises have mainly been digesting their stocks, with only rigid demand following up. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, both PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern [4]. - Trading strategy: Continue to hold long positions in PX. PTA has tight short - term liquidity but large medium - and long - term surplus pressure. Maintain the view of shorting the processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,007, up 0.1% [4]. - Fundamentals: The glass trading volume has been mixed, and the average price has been stable. Downstream demand is gradually improving. On the supply side, 4 production lines will resume production in July, and the supply growth rate is expected to increase by 1.2% month - on - month. The daily melting volume of glass is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8.8% year - on - year. Inventory has unexpectedly accumulated. On June 19, the upstream inventory was 69,887,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.29% month - on - month and 16.82% year - on - year. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises are 9.8 days, the operating rate is about 48%, which is lower than in previous years. In terms of valuation, losses have increased, with a large loss of 195 yuan for the natural - gas route, a profit of about 85 yuan for the coal - gas route, and a loss of 105 yuan for the petroleum - coke route. The spot prices are 1,120 yuan in North China, 1,020 yuan in Central China, 1,230 yuan in East China, and 1,280 yuan in South China [4]. - Trading strategy: The downward trend of glass prices is hard to reverse. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [4]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,597 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 78 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Plants are restarting in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply. Pay attention to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan at the end of the month. Overseas, plants in Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia have restarted, increasing the import supply. The inventory at East China ports is around 620,000 tons, at a historically low level. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, the supply - demand situation of MEG has weakened [4]. - Trading strategy: With the easing of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to take short positions [4]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,173, down 0.3% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the supply is gradually recovering. On the supply side, the Lianyungang Soda plant has reached full production, and the upstream operating rate of soda ash is 86%. Summer maintenance has gradually ended, and Qinghai Fatou Soda and Xuzhou Fengcheng Soda have maintenance plans this month. Inventory has accumulated at a high level. On June 23, the upstream inventory was 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from last Thursday, a rise of 1.69%. The number of days of pending orders for upstream manufacturers is 11 days. The inventory at delivery warehouses is 311,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,000 tons, the inventory days are 30.5 days, and the photovoltaic glass production line of China National Building Materials Yixing has blocked the kiln mouth. The soda ash price has changed little, with the delivered price around 1,250 yuan, the futures - spot quotation in Shahe at 09 contract + 20, and the factory - pickup price in Inner Mongolia at 09 contract - 160 [4][5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand of soda ash is weak on both sides, and it will oscillate at the bottom. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 for soda ash options [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]