国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 7 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季备货结束，盘面升水小标仓单 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026 年 02 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：2 月份的美国农业部报告显示，美国 2025/26 年度大豆产量、单产、播种及收割面积均与 1 月 预估持平。期末库存保持在 3.5 亿蒲式耳，与 1 月报告一致，处于六年高位。美豆出口预估仍为 15.75 亿 蒲式耳，未因特朗普总统关于中国可能增加采购 800 万吨的言论而上调。尽管美豆压榨需求强劲，但出口 进度滞后，叠加巴西大豆产量上调，供应压力增加对美豆价格构成压制。国内随着春节临近，油厂陆续停 机，现货交投转淡。尽管进口大豆成本为豆粕价格提供支撑，但国内港口大豆与豆粕库存高企，且节后可 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market is expected to be mainly volatile as the holiday approaches. Different agricultural products have different trends, including weakening, fluctuating, and potential recovery [1]. - For example, the supply of live pigs is abundant, leading to a weakening of pig prices in the short - term, but the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Exports are weakening, and sentiment is cautious. Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. - **Logic**: The 1 - month palm oil inventory in Malaysia is lower than expected, but the weak export performance from February 1 - 10 has put pressure on sentiment. For soybeans, the market anticipates an increase in South American soybean production in the USDA's February report, and the support from Sino - US agricultural trade is weakening. Regarding rapeseed oil, after the tariff reduction agreement between China and Canada in early January, the supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying hedges at low回调 levels [5]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Funds are reducing positions before the holiday, and the two types of meal are trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, China's purchase of US soybeans provides support, but the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA's February report suppress the upward space of US soybean futures prices. Domestically, due to factors such as the exchange's margin increase and the Spring Festival holiday, pre - holiday funds are mainly for risk - avoidance, and the market is inactive. After the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday arrivals are decreasing, and prices are volatile. - **Logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the trading activity is decreasing. After the holiday, there may be some selling pressure, but the remaining grain pressure is limited. The supply of feed grains is supplemented by policy - grain auctions and imported grains. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Pay attention to the trading and restocking rhythm of traders after the holiday [8][9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply is abundant, and pig prices are weakening. - **Logic**: In the short - term, as the Spring Festival approaches, the number of slaughtered pigs is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until at least April 2026. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction was hindered in January 2026. After the holiday, the demand will decrease significantly, and the supply is still excessive in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the pressure on live pig slaughter will weaken in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. Before the Spring Festival, there is a risk of selling pressure. After the holiday, the fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Maintaining range - bound trading. - **Logic**: The rubber price is expected to continue range - bound trading before the holiday. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, there is a possibility of an early rise due to expected factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand side has some support but no large - scale restocking. The obvious negative factor is the rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The trading volume is limited, but the capital attention is increasing [11][12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Mainly range - bound trading before the holiday. - **Logic**: The BR futures price first rose and then fell. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the trading of butadiene is not bad. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish in the medium - term. Although the short - term rise is fast and needs adjustment, the mid - term trend is still bullish [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Lack of upward momentum before the holiday. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, textile factories are shutting down for holidays. Before the holiday, there is no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to be range - bound. After the holiday, the traditional peak season will boost the cotton price. In the long - term, the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Brazil still has export potential, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - and long - term. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. Major producing countries are expected to increase production. Brazil's production is coming to an end, but its export potential is large. The production in the Northern Hemisphere is optimistic. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures are fluctuating independently. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and both the terminal and downstream are in a low - demand state. After the holiday, the seasonal recovery of demand will bring marginal benefits. The valuation of pulp futures is not high, and the downward space is limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to wait and see during the Spring Festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: Trading is coming to an end, and double - glued paper is trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The double - glued paper market has entered a pre - holiday stagnant state. Paper mills' production is basically stable, and some production lines have maintenance plans. After the holiday, the consumption recovery rhythm depends on the resumption of work of downstream printing factories, and there may be more price - cutting phenomena. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [18][19]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Trading is light, and the market is range - bound. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the log market is entering a shutdown stage, and trading is light. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is range - bound. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, there is still pressure from weak future demand and expected supply increase. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 830 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term 03 contract [21][22]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring The report only lists the names of varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3. CITIC Futures Commodity Index (February 10, 2026) - **Composite Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04%. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 10, 2026, is 927.60, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.66%, and a decline of 0.58% since the beginning of the year [182][183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the overall liquidity will remain abundant [7]. - Global asset allocation is expected to gradually shift from a high - concentration allocation of US dollar assets to a more diversified layout in the next 3 - 5 years, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Most commodities in the market are in a state of supply - demand game, with prices mainly in an interval - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to operate lightly or wait and see before the Spring Festival [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [7]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of a "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and suggests that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [7]. - China encourages the cultivation and development of future industries to seize the high - ground of science and technology and industry [7]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13% and achieving six consecutive positive days. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Five departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen the construction of information and communication capabilities to support the development of low - altitude infrastructure [9]. - Alphabet issued 100 - year bonds for the first time, with over 7 times over - subscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [9]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with potential for a pre - holiday corrective rebound. The upper pressure is around 5300 yuan, and the lower support is around 5250 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: The corn price has broken through the original prediction range. One can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions after the price retraces to the new support level of 2270 yuan [12]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an interval - trading strategy [12]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand increase is less than expected. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs continues to decline, and the futures market maintains an oscillation, with near - term strength and long - term weakness [13]. - **Red dates**: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for lower support [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. One can consider laying out long positions at low prices [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. One should pay attention to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices and operate with a light position during the holiday [13]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Logs**: The log price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with the upper pressure around 780 yuan and the lower support around 765 yuan [15]. - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton interval [15]. - **Offset paper**: The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions lightly when the price is high [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is running strongly. One should pay attention to the changes in the start - up of downstream urea enterprises around the Spring Festival [16]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The copper price is affected by the weakening US dollar, but the weak domestic demand restricts its upward space. The aluminum market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Before the Spring Festival, the steel price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is affected by the decline of the black series, but the cost has certain support. It is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17][19]. 3.2.4 Lithium Carbonate The lithium carbonate price shows signs of stabilizing. One can pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions after the price confirms stability after the Spring Festival [19]. 3.2.5 Options and Finance - **Stock index futures and options**: The stock index is mainly in an oscillating pattern. One can consider buying a straddle strategy during the holiday. The A - share market is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming an upward trend after the holiday is high [19][20].

周二纽约尾盘，彭博 谷物分类指数涨0.42%，报29.6459点，北京时间01:00美国 农业部发布 农产品库存 月报时曾瞬间转跌。CBOT玉米 期货持平，报4.2875美元/蒲式耳。CBOT小麦期货涨0.14%，报5.2950美 元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货涨1.13%，报11.2325美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货涨1.07%，豆油期货涨0.98%。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Brazilian new - season soybean supply pressure will suppress US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices, and with sufficient domestic supply, soybean meal prices will maintain a volatile trend. Future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazilian harvest [3] - Due to factors such as last - season's low corn imports, this - season's flood disasters in North China, and uncertain substitute grain auctions, corn supply is not loose. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal Futures - The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2729 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2238 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) [1] Spot - In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3140 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 411, a change of - 24; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 291, a change of - 4; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 271, a change of - 4; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2400 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was RM05 + 162, a change of - 9 [1] Market Information - Brazilian farmers' 2025/26 soybean harvest progress reached 16.55%, higher than 9.84% in the same period last year; Brazilian 2025/26 soybean sales reached 33.9% of the expected output, down from 42.4% in the same period last year; in Argentina, 75% of the 2025/26 soybean crops were rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago, and 59% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data for Corn Futures - The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2265 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton (- 0.40%); the corn starch 2603 contract was 2538 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) [4] Spot - In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was C03 + 75, a change of + 14; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was CS03 + 92, a change of + 2 [4] Market Information - The 2025 global grain output is expected to reach a record 3.023 billion tons, and the 2025/26 global grain inventory is expected to increase, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio rising to 31.8%, the highest since 2001 [4] Group 5: Market Analysis - In the soybean meal market, good weather in Brazil and expected high - yield new - season soybeans will suppress prices. With sufficient domestic supply, prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean procurement and Brazilian harvest [3] - In the corn market, due to factors like last - season's low imports, this - season's floods in North China, and uncertain substitute grain auctions, supply is not loose. Corn prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [6] Group 6: Strategies - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the USDA is about to release its monthly supply and demand report, the market is focusing on South American soybean production. With the pre - holiday trading being light, the market is in a wait - and - see mode and the futures market is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9014.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 12 yuan and a change rate of - 0.13% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8114.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9137.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.08% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.67%. The spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was Y05 + 286.00, with a month - on - month change of - 12.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9890.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, with a month - on - month change of + 7.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of February 9, the national imported soybean port inventory was 8.25918 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop reached 16% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the 2026 second - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 22% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 first - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 15% of the expected area - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was $553/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was $561/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was $503/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) was $497/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was $454/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment), the US West Coast (April shipment), and Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 9 cents/bushel, 9 cents/bushel, and 5 cents/bushel respectively from the previous trading day - As of the week of February 6, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2480000 tons, the second - highest level in history. It increased by 190000 tons week - on - week, 730000 tons month - on - month, 2020000 tons year - on - year, and 1530000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected to drop to about 1.6 million tons during the Spring Festival holiday - As of February 4, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop has been completed, but the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. 16% of the late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, with water shortages causing flower abortion and even plant death in extreme cases. About 31% of the national soybean area is in the critical growth stage, and water stress is the core challenge [2]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-10 棉价窄幅波动，郑糖小幅反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14580元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15689元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨，现货基差CF05+1109，较前一日变动-75；3128B棉全国均价15967元/吨， 较前一日变动-58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1387，较前一日变动-58。 近期市场资讯，1月巴西棉出口量为31.7万吨，环比（45.2万吨）减少29.9%，同比（41.6万吨）减少23.7%。截至 目前，巴西2025/26年度（2025.7-2026.6）累计出口棉花约172.2万吨，同比（约163.0万吨）增加5.6%。从累计出口 目的地看，中国（47.9万吨）为巴西棉花最大出口国，占总出口量的约27.8%；孟加拉（26.8万吨）位居第二，占 比约15.6%；土耳其（21.2万吨）排第三，占比约12.3%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of sugar remains abundant, with a likely downward trend in price. For the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05, consider short - selling on rebounds [3]. - The pulp market is affected by the downstream off - season. Although the cost of warehouse receipts has increased, the pulp futures are under short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - The cost support for double - offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis, and it is advisable to try short - selling in the short term [5]. - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract [6]. - The apple futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [7]. - For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and for long positions, consider buying protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply side still has support, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, and it may show a volatile trend in the short term. Support range: 8800 - 8900, pressure range: 11000 - 11500 [16]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The expected production reduction may be gradually reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is starting to peak and decline. Support range: 8700 - 9000, pressure range: 9500 - 9800 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2605: Short - sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply. Support range: 5070 - 5100, pressure range: 5300 - 5320 [16]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and there is a lack of new supply - side利多 recently. However, the US dollar quotation remains stable, and the cost of warehouse receipts may support the short - term price. Support range: 5200 - 5300, pressure range: 5450 - 5500 [16]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. Support range: 4000 - 4100, pressure range: 4250 - 4300 [16]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term positive expectations still exist, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external market price is in a downward trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term futures price may fluctuate. Support range: 13500 - 13600, pressure range: 15400 - 15500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.6351 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable. The Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. The mainstream price of 70 and above bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty [17][18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the scattered acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious market outlook for the new season after the Spring Festival, holders are more inclined to sell actively before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale products, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resale BSK has fallen, and the spot price of imported NBSK has also declined. However, the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the growth rate also narrowed [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous month. The intended cotton - planting area in 2026 is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu, a decrease of 1.7%. It is estimated that the total cotton output will be 7.275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 452,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [28]. 3.3 Third Part - Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605: Closing price of 9517, a daily decrease of 18, a daily decline rate of 0.19%. - Jujube 2605: Closing price of 8725, a daily increase of 30, a daily increase rate of 0.35%. - Sugar 2605: Closing price of 5261, a daily increase of 33, a daily increase rate of 0.63%. - Pulp 2605: Closing price of 5200, a daily decrease of 34, a daily decline rate of 0.65%. - Cotton 2605: Closing price of 14580, no daily change [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - Apple: Spot price of 4.45 yuan per catty, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: Spot price of 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: Spot price of 5310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 640 yuan. - Pulp: Spot price of 5300 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1400 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: Spot price of 15967 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1150 yuan [33]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references such as apple 5 - month basis, jujube main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part - Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: Current value of 1280, a month - on - month decrease of 38, a year - on - year increase of 1909, expected to be volatile and strong, recommended strategy: buy on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 240, a month - on - month decrease of 15, a year - on - year increase of 140, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 2, a year - on - year decrease of 133, expected to be volatile, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 125, a month - on - month decrease of 5, a year - on - year increase of 40, expected to be volatile and weak, recommended strategy: short - sell on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, etc. of each variety. 3.7 Seventh Part - Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 3350 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 722. - Sugar: 14461 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 87, a year - on - year decrease of 9667. - Pulp: 146447 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 193040. - Cotton: 10580 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 5, a year - on - year increase of 3815 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Option - related Data No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton.

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约 2605 合约涨跌幅 0%，收于 2276 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2170元/吨，较上周五持平；华北地区企业收购均价2304元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、昨日南北港口价格稳定。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2270-2280元/吨，较上周五持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较上周五持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至2月9日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0手 | | | 玉 ...