投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-31 原油上行走势，植物油持续反弹 油脂：原油上行走势，植物油持续反弹 蛋白粕：库存压力仍大，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：华北东北分化，期货冲高回落 生猪：月末缩量，猪价反弹 天然橡胶：看涨情绪仍存，胶价低位反弹 合成橡胶：原料调涨，盘面坚挺运行 棉花：延续偏强走势 白糖：小幅反弹，但依旧承压 纸浆：现货平淡，期货独自反复震荡 双胶纸：现货持稳，盘面偏强 原木：供需双弱，窄幅震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：原油上行走势，植物油持续反弹 逻辑：国内油脂走势震荡偏强，其中棕榈油涨势更为明显。从宏观环境 看，国际原油价格延续上行趋势，地缘问题带来的供给顾虑仍需消化，同 时原油上涨使棕榈油作为生物柴油的吸引力加强。从产业端看，南美豆丰 产预期持续，巴西大豆种植基本结束，AgRural预计2025/26年度巴西大豆 产量将达到创纪录的1.804亿吨，高于11月份预估的1.785亿吨，同比提高 5.19%。阿根廷大豆种植截至12月19号的进度是67.3%，环比提高8.7个百 分点，去年 ...

新华财经纽约12月30日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价30日全线下跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.41美元，比前一交易日 下跌1.75美分，跌幅为0.4%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.11美元，比前一交易日下跌2.25美分， 跌幅为0.44%；大豆2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳10.62美元，比前一交易日下跌1.25美分，跌幅为 0.12%。 受全球粮食价格走弱影响，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货当日下跌，年底市场交易清淡。 美国农业部将于2026年1月12日发布作物报告，届时将提供2025年美国夏季农作物最终产量数据。在巴 西大豆产量创历史新高的背景下，市场分析机构认为价格上涨即为销售良机。 美国农业部当日宣布，美国向中国出售13.6万吨大豆，向未知目的地出售23.1万吨大豆。 世界粮食贸易现在面临的最大问题是印度何时会成为粮食进口国。目前，印度正大量出口大米，以提高 农民收入。由于印度和泰国积极的出口计划，世界大米价格下跌了32%。印度预计将在2026年迎来创纪 录的小麦丰收。 天气预报显示，阿根廷未来11-15天内降 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal market is experiencing high downstream inventory, causing the price to fluctuate. The 05 contract price is moving weakly in line with the US soybean price due to ample domestic supply, high inventory, and strong South American harvest expectations. However, high import costs and pre - and post - Spring Festival shutdown expectations provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [1][2] - In the corn market, supply - side trading is sluggish with low trader enthusiasm and limited arrivals. On the demand side, feed companies are mostly in a wait - and - see mode after restocking, and deep - processing enterprises are making just - in - time purchases with stable production and sales. With farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream wait - and - see attitudes, future attention should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2774 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous day. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had spot prices of 3100 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, and 3070 yuan/ton respectively. Crop expert Michael Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 1.77 billion tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic supply is ample, and the 05 contract price is weak due to high inventory and South American harvest expectations, but there is some price support [2] Corn - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2249 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. As of December 23, 77.7% of Argentina's 2025/26 corn was planted. As of December 25, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply - side trading is light, and demand - side players are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. Corn spot prices are expected to adjust [4][5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/30 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7818 | 8512 | 9040 | 2774 | 2465 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -18 | -56 | -6 | -16 | 6 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.23% | -0.65% | -3.15% | -0.57% | 0.24% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report suggests short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and jujube. For soybean meal, although the U.S. soybean export data is poor and domestic soybean inventory has decreased while soybean meal inventory has increased, the expected decline in imports in the first quarter and the rising cost of U.S. soybean imports support the short - term rebound. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal with reduced inventory pressure and shows some resistance to decline. Jujube has a short - term rebound opportunity despite high inventory and a generally bearish supply - demand situation [1][3][6][14]. - **Stop - falling and Rebound**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to stop falling and rebound. Palm oil has a de - stocking expectation in December due to increased export data and reduced production, but the Indonesian policy cools the bullish sentiment. Soybean oil's supply environment has slightly improved, and the import in the first quarter is lower than expected. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply tightness and benefits from domestic edible oil inspections [1][7][8]. - **Oscillate Strongly**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. Internationally, the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to mixed factors. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is resilient, but attention should be paid to the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply [1][9][12]. - **Short - term Rebound for Live Pigs**: Live pigs are expected to have a short - term rebound. Recently, affected by snow and the entry of second - fattening pigs, the supply pressure is postponed to January - February, and the short - term supply - demand pressure eases, which is conducive to the short - term rebound [1][15][16]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654.44 million tons, a decrease of 67.92 million tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 116.76 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and 1.01 days from the same period last year [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term long positions after adjustment. Before the U.S. soybean stabilizes, the performance of soybean meal will be restricted. Focus on whether the U.S. soybean export data can improve and the South American weather conditions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory, rapeseed meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts were all 0 million tons, unchanged from last week. The supply of rapeseed meal is scarce, and the spot price has risen, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal. With the relief of inventory pressure, it shows some resistance to decline. Pay attention to the Australian rapeseed pressing and import policies and the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.41 million tons, an increase of 4.87%. Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil export and production in the first 25 days of December vary, but generally, there is a de - stocking expectation in December [7][8]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Bullish investors can participate at low prices. Before the de - stocking conclusion in December is confirmed, pay attention to controlling positions. Focus on the final data [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the U.S. new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's new cotton daily listing volume is 4.3 million tons, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 16.9%. Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 6 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is locked at 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast, and the national commercial inventory has risen to 5.165 billion tons [9][10][11]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of entering the market with long positions on dips. Be vigilant about the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply on the disk, and focus on the change in the commercial inventory accumulation speed [1][12]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply has increased. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 15,898 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210 tons, still higher than the same period last year. The demand in the market varies [13][14]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain a generally bearish attitude, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slaughter progress of steel - union sample enterprises in the first 20 days is 70%, and the supply pressure at the end of the month may ease. The entry of second - fattening pigs in Shandong has increased, and the supply pressure is postponed to January - February. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets in November decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is expected to reach the adjustment target by the end of the year [15][16]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 01 contract is restricted by the delivery logic, and the deep - decline space of the valuation is limited after the spot rebound. For the 03 contract, pay attention to the safety margin after the rebound and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. For the 09 and 11 contracts, wait and see in the short - term data vacuum period [1][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: South American soybean growth is good with a high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean exports are slow, leading to weak CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about soybean customs clearance have supported domestic bean prices, but overall soybean and soybean oil supplies are sufficient, suppressing price increases. With ample supply and limited short - term bullish drivers, it is advisable to hold short positions lightly. The support level for the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 7900 - 7950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated on Monday. The current inventory is in a destocking state. With Australian rapeseed not yet in the crushing stage, the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The near - month contract prices have risen rapidly, but the upside of the 05 contract is limited due to expected supply increases. In the short - term, it is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, supply increases and a global bumper harvest will put pressure on prices, while anti - dumping duties and high import costs provide some support. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil fluctuated weakly on Monday. The fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved slightly, but the market still expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue to accumulate in December, limiting price rebounds. With long - term deep import profit inversion and stagnant ship purchases in the past two weeks, there is some bottom support. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [2]. - **Other Products**: For other products such as soybeans, corn, and their derivatives, as well as livestock and poultry products like pigs and eggs, the report provides detailed market analyses, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, inventory situations, and market sentiment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans (domestic) is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions; the 05 contract of soybeans (imported) is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. - **Oils**: The 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to be oscillating bearishly, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see stance [9]. - **Proteins**: The 05 contract of soybean meal is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 03 contract of corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach; the 03 contract of corn starch is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach [9]. - **Livestock Farming**: The 03 contract of pigs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; the 05 contract of eggs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [9]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For different products, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, including waiting and seeing, positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts), and negative spreads (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts) [10][11]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For different product combinations, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, such as waiting and seeing, bearish operations [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming products [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean (port) inventory, soybean meal (oil mill) inventory, and soybean oil (port) inventory [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, corn inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and starch enterprise inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It includes daily data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, price changes, and basis changes [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, breeding costs, profits, and inventory data [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, spot prices, and related price indicators [24][25][26]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts related to palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, such as production, exports, inventory, and basis [33][40][48]. - **Feed**: It includes charts related to corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, such as closing prices, spot prices, basis, and inventory [51][58][63][70]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts [86][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [94][96][97][100][102].

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 一、期货 国际油价周一收高逾1美元，这使棉花的替代品聚酯纤维的价格变得更加昂贵，从而提升棉花的吸引 力。 软商品市场整体上涨，可可、原糖和咖啡期货均小涨。 上周五，中国国家统计局公布的全国棉花产量数据显示，2025年全国棉花播种面积4468.7万亩，比上年 增加211.3万亩，增长5.0%；单产148.6公斤/亩，比上年增加3.8公斤/亩，增长2.6%；产量664.1万吨，比 上年增加47.7万吨，增长7.7%。 受年底临近因素影响，市场成交相对稀疏。 ICE指标3月期棉合约下跌0.14美分或0.22%，结算价报每磅64.35美分。该合约上周五触及自12月3日以 来的最高位。 StoneX的风险管理师BaileyThomen称，"看起来可能有一些空头回补，但实际上并没有什么具体的因素 推动这次反弹。目前，它只是形成了一种新的上升趋势并继续走升。我们今天看到整个软商品市场都有 一些积极因素，另一方面油价上涨可能会提供一些支撑。" 据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据，截至12月16日当周，投机客增持ICE棉花期货的净空头头寸 1,822手，至60,573手，这表明他们 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...