Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise on September 23, with raw sugar futures increasing by 1.57% to 16.16 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.59% to 66.61 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures increased by 0.63% to $7003.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures declined by 4.19% to 351.95 cents per pound [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 市场信息 农产品日报 2024 年 09 月 23 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13540 | -70 | 241,105 | -94261 | 532,801 | 10524 | | CF05合约 | 13560 | -55 | 33,542 | -10592 | 100,783 | 6007 | | CF09合约 | 13725 | -80 | 49 | -59 | 226 | 37 | | CY01合约 | 19635 | -45 | 228 | 108 | 480 | 18 | | CY05合约 | 19730 | -415 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19990 | 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 8964.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.88% [1] Group 1: Market Data - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 6.57% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil yield for the period of September 1-20, 2025, along with a 0.25% decrease in extraction rate and a 7.89% reduction in production [2] - As of September 19, domestic palm oil commercial inventory stands at 600,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 130,000 tons [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that the price of crude palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 4200 to 4500 MYR per ton in the short term, supported by a robust global vegetable oil market and supply uncertainties [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures suggests that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand noted in mid-September. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, but caution is advised due to frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policies that may negatively impact palm oil adjustments [3] - Dae Yu Futures notes that oilseed prices are stabilizing, with a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply. The USDA's high production expectations for South America in 2024/25 and neutral Malaysian palm oil inventory are highlighted, along with improved demand due to Indonesia's B40 policy promoting domestic consumption [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-23 粮农认卖情绪偏高，玉米突破前低 油脂： 马棕9月产量预期环降，继续关注油脂下方支撑有效性 蛋白粕： 节前备货下游点价，盘面区间下沿反弹 玉米/淀粉： 粮农认卖情绪偏高，期货突破前低 生猪： 供给充足，价格弱势 橡胶： 数据修正带来利多情绪，关注持续性 合成橡胶： 盘面维持区间震荡走势 棉花： 棉价提前交易新作宽松预期，连续向下调整 白糖： 基本面未见好转，糖价向下寻找支撑 纸浆： 现货弱势不改，纸浆维持震荡走势 双胶纸：窄幅震荡运行，关注出版社招标 原木： 盘面窄幅波动，区间操作为主 【异动品种】 ⽟⽶观点：粮农认卖情绪偏⾼，期货突破前低 逻辑：今日国内现货走势继续分化，东北深加工到货量快速增加，价格大 幅下跌；华北深加工涨多跌少，根据到货量灵活调价；港口装船需求较 大，价格偏强运行。供应端，吉林、内蒙古、黑龙江西部目前暂无新季玉 米上市，新粮上市主要集中于黑龙江东部，由于开秤价格偏高，粮农认卖 情绪偏高，玉米收购价较上周五普遍下调。华北近期持续降雨，潮粮上量 不足，粮质偏弱。存陈粮相对偏紧，价格有企稳回升的苗头。 ...

期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月22日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 阔叶浆提涨外加针叶浆价格处于成本线附近，对短期价格或有所支 撑，不过上涨驱动还不明朗，需要验证成品纸旺季成色，向上高度 谨慎 ...

油料日报 | 2025-09-23 豆一节前备货阶段性支撑豆价，花生供应放缓需求仍弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3912.00元/吨，较前日变化+8.00元/吨，幅度+0.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+308，较前日变化-8，幅度32.14%。 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2511合约7806.00元/吨，较前日变化-28.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8380.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元/吨，幅度+0.60%，现货基差PK11+394.00，环比变化+28.00，幅度+7.65%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面全国花生市场通货米均价4.17元/斤，上涨0.02元/斤，其中，河南白沙通货米好品质4.2-4.35 元/斤不等、8个筛价格4.8元/斤以内，大花生通货米3.9-4.2元/斤，辽宁白沙通货米4.2-4.25元/斤，以质论价，成交 一般。山东油厂通货米合同采购报价8300-8400元/吨、河南油厂报价7800元/吨，山东油厂油料米合同采购报价7900 元/吨，谨慎收购，到货量较少。 市场资讯汇总：东北地区新季大豆已开始零星上 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 现货小幅上涨，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3034元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.66%；菜粕2601合约2528元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M01-14， 较前日变动+10；江苏地区豆粕现货2940元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-94，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-74，较前日变动-10。福建地区菜粕现货价格2700 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+172，较前日变动+14。 近期市场资讯，加拿大统计局数据显示，2025/26年度迄今，加拿大油菜籽出口进度偏慢。截至9月7日当周，加拿 大油菜籽出口量4.6万吨，上周为4.7万吨；2025/26年度迄今油菜籽出口量57.5万吨，同比减少60.3%，上周同比减 少53.4%。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号，未来需持续关注。另一 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal declined significantly. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.5 bushels, and the reduction was lower than market expectations. It raised the estimated soybean crushing volume to 2.555 billion bushels and lowered the estimated export volume to 1.685 billion bushels, ultimately increasing the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 to 300 million bushels. Currently, US soybeans are gradually entering the harvest and listing period, and the harvest pressure will gradually emerge. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which will put short - term pressure on the soybean market. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly operate under pressure [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Recently, Sabah, Malaysia, was affected by flood weather, but concerns about production have cooled down. According to high - frequency data, SPPOMA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 8.05% compared with the same period last month. In terms of exports, SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 decreased by 24.7%. Both the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil declined, and Argentina cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which pressured the soybean oil price and dragged down the short - term performance of the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8366 for soybean oil, 9360 for palm oil, 10143 for rapeseed oil, 3034 for soybean meal, 2548 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 38, 44, 75, 20, 5, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.47%, - 3.15%, 0.66%, 0.20%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 were - 332, - 558, - 728, - 768, 1381, and 613 respectively, with previous values of - 338, - 524, - 569, - 802, 1466, and 664 [1]. - Ratios and spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 were - 143, - 81, 444, 1.18, 2.78, and 5143 respectively, with previous values of - 115, - 87, 464, 1.19, 2.76, and 5091 [1]. International Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4363 for BMD palm oil (Ringgit/ton), 1011 for CBOT soybeans (cents/bushel), 50 for CBOT US soybean oil (cents/pound), and 280 for CBOT US soybean meal (dollars/ton). The price changes were - 5, - 15, - 1, and - 4 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 1.44%, - 1.90%, and - 1.41% [1]. Spot Market Domestic Spot - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil, and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 8580, 8700, 9380, 9270, 10370, and 10370 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, 0.35%, - 0.32%, - 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.48% [1]. - Basis: The current spot basis of the above - mentioned products were 214, 334, 20, - 90, 227, and 227 respectively [1]. - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal were - 590, 1400, and 330 respectively, with previous values of - 610, 1340, and 350 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 314, 63, - 71, 288, 748, and 1116 respectively, with previous values of - 361, 4, - 130, 320, 881, and 1020 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 25,644, 1,570, 8,182, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 25,644, 1,570, 8,202, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 [1]. Industry Information - Palm oil: SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 6.57% compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 7.89% compared with the same period last month [2]. - Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 0.9% of the expected total area. The field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states had significantly increased, and the current progress was the same as the same period last year [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and inventory pressure needs to be released [1]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, causing US soybeans to fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures during the day session was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and 9,152 yuan/ton at night with a -2.22% decrease. For soybean oil futures, it was 8,366 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.46% increase and 8,172 yuan/ton at night with a -2.32% decrease. Rapeseed oil futures closed at 10,143 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.74% increase and 10,073 yuan/ton at night with a -0.69% decrease. The Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD) closed at 4,442 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.41% increase and 4,369 ringgit/ton at night with a -1.67% decrease. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 49.63 cents/pound with a -1.96% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. For soybean oil futures, the trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. Rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 275,428 lots, a decrease of 36,699 lots, and an open interest of 366,477 lots, an increase of 14,048 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 90 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 344 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 783 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 994 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 206 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 288 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 505 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions had different estimates of Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20: ITS reported 1,010,032 tons, an increase from the previous month; AmSpec reported 941,984 tons, an 8.3% increase; SGS estimated 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease [3][4][5][6]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The defoliation rate was 61%. As of the week ending September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the market forecast. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 1,569,777 tons, higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year. In the first three weeks of September, Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume 8.20% higher than that of September last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association plans to invest 59 billion reais (11.1 billion US dollars) in the next 12 months, which will increase the soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [7]. - **Argentina**: On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches 7 billion US dollars. In August, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3,904,901 tons, with a soybean oil output of 759,356 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,830,752 tons [7][8]. - **Canada**: A canola oil transshipment facility in Canada, invested 150 million Canadian dollars (109 million US dollars) by DP World, has started full - scale operation, increasing the export capacity by 1 million tons per year [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 1.22%, closing at 28.8367 points, with a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - The index experienced a significant drop, reaching 28.6721 points by 22:20, approaching the August 6 low of 28.2567 points and the September 28, 2020 low of 27.1193 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.53%, while CBOT wheat futures decreased by 2.39%, settling at $5.10 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.39%, closing at $10.1125 per bushel, with soybean meal futures down by 1.34% and soybean oil futures down by 1.96% [1] - In contrast, CBOT softwood futures increased by 0.35%, and CBOT lean hog futures rose by 1.23%, with live cattle futures up by 1.56% and feeder cattle futures increasing by 2.64% [1]