中信证券研究发文表示，随着中国制造业在全球定价权和经济利润份额的不断提升，资产内在价值亦不 断提升，最终会带来持续的人民币升值。中信证券研究部宏观组预测2026年人民币对美元有望升值到 6.8。为了避免人民币过早、过快单边升值对出口导向型制造业的损伤，超预期的货币宽松是必要的。 超预期的货币宽松可能会带动实际利率下行，并在一定程度上撬动内需（当然这需要财政的配合），而 内需的系统性提振是2026年市场整体打破震荡僵局再上一个台阶的必要条件。在此之前，预计震荡和结 构性机会的轮动是A股的常态，我们依然建议在配置上寻找全球有敞口，且利润率有提升逻辑的方向。 1）资源与传统制造业领域，依旧看好中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反 内卷，需求在外出利润"的故事，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源 等。2）企业出海依旧是打开利润和市值空间的重要方式，A股从本国敞口的新兴市场定位向全球敞口 的成熟市场定位过渡也依旧是时代特征，过程中不可避免的会出现与海外风险资产和经济环境共振频率 增加的问题，这是必经之路，重点关注的行业包括工程机械、创新药、电力设备、游戏和军工等。3） 站 ...

中信证券研究发文表示，超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常态，资源/传统制造 业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜力的被低估的方向。去年"9.24行情"以来，两轮市场水位的整体抬升都 伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私募主观多头产品新 发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔除两轮融资的大幅 上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是量化驱动的微盘、 保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新药。当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变 化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高 的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可 能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业 出海两个方向。 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 冗余时刻还未结束，目标不变、守株待兔 ——A 股市场运行周报第 70 期 核心观点 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较 大、强势标的多数还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏 大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗 余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指 数 9 月 4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介 入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注 走势顺畅且历史上在 12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低 位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 ❑ 本周（2025-12-01 至 2025-12-05）行情概况 （1）主要指数：宽基指数多数上涨，创业板指涨幅居前。（2）板块观察：有色携 硬科技上涨，消费伴软科技回调。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比有所回落，股指 期 ...

中国大宗商品价格指数连续七个月环比回升 中新社北京12月5日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会5日发布数据显示，2025年11月份，中国大 宗商品价格指数(CBPI)为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨1.6%，保持稳中向好态势。 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 分行业看，有色价格指数继续走高，能源价格指数止跌反弹，农产品价格指数小幅上涨，矿产价格指数 继续回升，黑色系价格指数跌幅收窄，化工价格指数继续下行。 分商品看，在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格与上月相比，25种(50%)大 宗商品价格上涨，25种(50%)大宗商品价格下跌。11月涨幅前三的大宗商品为碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸， 环比分别上涨15%、7.2%和7.1%；跌幅前三的为甲醇、玻璃和棕榈油，环比分别下跌8.3%、7.1%和 6%。 分析认为，总体来看，中国大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，保持稳中 ...

资金流向方面，深证国企股东回报（970064）指数成份股当日主力资金净流入合计12.42亿元，游资资金 净流出合计8.77亿元，散户资金净流出合计3.65亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000725 京东方 A | | 9.01亿 | 11.39% | -5.16 Z | -6.52% | -3.85 Z | -4.87% | | 000630 铜陵有色 | | 2.05 Z | 8.37% | -3243.44万 | -1.33% | -1.72 Z | -7.05% | | 000987 | 越秀资本 | 1.16亿 | 22.21% | -3920.73万 | -7.50% | -7688.67万 | -14.71% | | 002080 | 中材科技 | 1.09 Z | 8.09% | -4087.77万 | -3.04% | -6777.02万 | -5. ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，中证A500行业配置聚焦四大方向：科创（科技博弈打开估值上限，重视端侧稳健 增长及ToB商业化落地）、顺周期（再通胀交易下关注紧供给的有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭/建材/机械）、出 海（产能出海提升全球竞争力，关注电新/机械/通信设备/能源金属）及地产链（中期触底困境反转，建 筑/建材/家居/家电/物管具高赔率）。科技领域需消化估值，短期看北美AI资本开支及业绩兑现；顺周 期行业受益供给出清带来的价格弹性；制造出海依托产业链优势；地产链关注房价企稳后的修复机会。 行业新旧动能转换中，科技制造ROE稳步抬升。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用 的"行业均衡"方式编制。从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列同类首位， 是第 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - **Quantitative Analysis**: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - **Glass**: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - **Lead**: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - **Eggs**: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - **Apples**: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - **Corn**: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - **Rubber**: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Urea**: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].

12月以来，市场有两个现象。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF智选） 一是成交量持续下滑，像是今天，沪深两市成交额1.55万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1210亿。 据报道，工、农、中、建、交、邮储六大行官网及App中，五年期大额存单已集体"消失"，仅剩的三年期产品利率普遍降到1.5% 至1.75%，且额度紧张。 这其实也是一个信号。如果银行接下来要降息，但依然按照现在利息水平卖给你5年期大额存单，给你的利息锁死，明显是要吃 亏的。 另一个是越来越多人开始防守，小盘成长熄火，大盘价值表现更出色。 截至今天，宽基指数中，中证A500本周涨幅0.38%，中证2000下跌1.55%。 根据同花顺iFinD数据，申万一级行业中，这周涨幅居前的，依次是有色、通信、家电、石油石化、交通运输和煤炭，高股息板 块占到大半。 这个也符合我们之前说的，11月炒小炒差，12月开始到明年1月，股价和业绩相关性持续提升，大盘有更高胜率和赔率。 具体到行业上，家电、食饮、纺服、社服等消费板块在12月至1月的胜率较高。 此外，石化、钢铁、有色、煤炭、建材、大金融板块在1月胜率明显提升。 除此以外，老美12月降息概率很高，我们这边，也存在跟进的可能 ...

上游资源：煤价环比回落，工业金属价格上涨。 1 ）煤炭： 煤价环比 -2.2% ，尽管供给仍偏紧，但需求端短期难有明显超预期空间，煤价回吐部分涨幅 ； 2 ）有色： 降息预期升温，工业金属价格上涨。 报告导读： 中观景气延续分化的增长格局，新兴科技景气仍强，高性能存储价格延续快速 上涨，游戏供给偏宽松；服务消费景气明显提升，地产周期和耐用品需求仍承压。 服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价。 上周（ 11.24-11.30 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）内需景气线索有所增多，冰雪出行和电影市场景气度 显著提升，或反映地产和耐用品消费收缩之余，"吃喝玩乐"相关的服务型和大众品消费复苏趋势持续显现。 2 ）新兴科技行业延续高景气，但短期 AI 泡沫叙 事影响下， TMT 硬件景气增长的持续性有赖于 AI 应用取得积极进展。后续重点关注 AI 应用商业化进展。 3 ）建工需求偏弱，内需资源品大多偏弱震荡， 海外降息预期再度升温，国际金属价格大幅上涨；受铁矿增产影响，干散运价格环比延续提升。 下游消费：服务消费景气显著提升，地产耐用品仍承压。 1 ）服务消费： 国内冰雪游景气度显著提升，根据同程旅行，广州 - ...

角逐定价权，迈入低波市 A 股市场 2026 年投资策略｜2025.11.10 中信证券研究部 裘翔 首席 A 股策略师 S1010518080002 刘春彤 联席首席 A 股策略师 S1010520080003 高玉森 A 股策略分析师 S1010524080009 张铭楷 A 股策略分析师 S1010525070015 陈泽平 A 股策略分析师 S1010525080021 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后第 53 页起的免责条款和声明 A 股市场 2026 年投资策略｜2025.11.10 核心观点 A 股上市公司正陆续从本国敞口的本土化企业转型为全球敞口的跨国公司，中国资本 市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，A 股不仅是中国的 A 股，也是全球的 A 股。 "十五五"期间，中企在全球价值链分配中的位置有望进一步抬升，把份额优势转化 为定价权，这是 A 股行情迈向低波动慢牛的基础。展望 2026 年，从大势研判来看，A 股全球营收敞口企业已不局限于少数公司，而是足以推动整个 A 股的行情，未来 A 股 的基本面要放在全球市场需求去看，而不是单看本土需求。在此框架下，中美格局决 定了行情的节奏和顺畅程 ...