Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to enhance financial support for consumption, establishing a multi-tiered financial service system to meet diverse financing needs and stimulate high-quality consumption growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidance outlines 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, unlocking consumer potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and ensuring policy support [2]. - The focus is on three main consumption areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption, with specific strategies to activate market potential in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support Mechanisms - The current financial service system includes banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, with credit support being the primary channel, complemented by bond and equity financing [4]. - The guidance emphasizes the need for banks to optimize credit products and enhance support for first-time loans, renewals, and credit loans to improve the sustainability of consumer financial services [4][5]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Environment - Improving the consumer environment is crucial for stimulating consumption, with measures to optimize payment services, strengthen credit systems, and protect consumer rights [6]. - The guidance highlights the importance of increasing residents' income levels and improving consumption infrastructure to support market expansion and quality enhancement [5][6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the importance of boosting consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth, with the central economic work conference prioritizing this task for the year [1] - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have jointly issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, outlining 19 measures across six key areas [1][2] - The guidelines emphasize the need for a multi-layered financial service system to support consumption growth, coordinating various financial resources to meet diverse financing needs [1][3] Group 2 - Experts believe that service consumption has significant growth potential, with current goods consumption reaching high levels, while service consumption remains relatively underdeveloped compared to developed countries [2] - The guidelines specifically support the development of service consumption by increasing financing for sectors such as wholesale and retail, catering, and elder care services [2][3] - The introduction of new financial tools aimed at enhancing supply-side support for service consumption is highlighted as a key direction for macroeconomic policy [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the establishment of a multi-tiered consumer finance service system in China, which has been well-developed over the years, with credit support playing a major role [4] - The guidelines stress the need to diversify consumer financing channels, enhancing credit products and supporting qualified enterprises in issuing bonds [4][5] - The focus is also on improving the efficiency of consumption supply, particularly in infrastructure projects related to aging, sports facilities, and logistics [6] Group 4 - The guidelines aim to enhance residents' income levels as a crucial support for stimulating consumption potential [5][6] - Protecting consumer rights is also emphasized, with measures to optimize payment services and strengthen credit system construction in the consumption sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have issued guidelines to enhance consumer spending through financial support, focusing on three key areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines propose 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand financial supply, aiming to create a multi-layered financial service system to support consumption [1][2]. - The focus is on utilizing credit, bonds, and equity financing to stimulate consumption growth potential [1][2]. - The measures are designed to meet diverse financing needs of businesses and consumers, fostering a cycle where financial empowerment drives consumption, which in turn stimulates economic growth [1][2]. Group 2: Key Areas of Consumption - The guidelines emphasize three main areas for financial support: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types [3][4]. - For goods consumption, the focus is on innovative credit products tailored to consumer needs and enhancing support for trade enterprises transitioning to domestic sales [3]. - In service consumption, increased financing support is directed towards sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, with a specific emphasis on cultural, tourism, and educational services [3][4]. Group 3: New Consumption Types - The guidelines encourage the exploration of financial support channels for digital, green, and health-related consumption, promoting financial innovation to cater to these emerging markets [4][6]. - The establishment of a robust multi-tiered consumer finance service system is highlighted, with credit support playing a crucial role alongside bond and equity financing [6]. Group 4: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - Improving residents' income levels is identified as a key factor in stimulating consumption potential, with measures to support employment and wealth management [7]. - The guidelines also address the need for improved consumption infrastructure, particularly in logistics and supply chain efficiency, to enhance market expansion [7]. Group 5: Optimizing Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose optimizing payment services, building a credit system in the consumption sector, and enhancing consumer rights protection to create a better consumption environment [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant growth of China's consumption market, which reached 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [10][11] - Service retail sales in China grew by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a shift towards service consumption [10][18] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% by 2025, driven by policy support and technological innovation, with sales growth projected at nearly 30% [23][71] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors are experiencing diverse growth, particularly in the automotive sector, where NEVs are the main growth driver, with sales of 1.29 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [21][22] - The home appliance market saw significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.95 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase from the previous year, supported by government policies [28][30] - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing stable revenue, while overall production has been declining since 2016 [33][39] Group 3 - The report identifies emerging consumption trends, such as the pet economy, which is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased pet ownership and higher spending per pet [59][60] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2022 to 2026, with retail sales projected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026 [62][74] - The beauty economy, encompassing cosmetics, personal care, and medical aesthetics, is also expanding, with the cosmetics retail sales reaching 114.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 3.2% year-on-year increase [69][70]

Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is a crucial area for future consumption growth, with significant development potential and space [1] - In Q1 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 43.4% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Long-term trends indicate that service consumption will evolve towards intelligence, personalization, and sustainability, enhancing domestic demand and improving economic structure [1] Group 2: County-Level Market Opportunities - Service consumption is accelerating its penetration into county-level markets, presenting new opportunities [2] - In 2024, rural retail sales reached 66,729 billion, growing by 4.3%, with rural market sales growth consistently outpacing urban areas [2] - The proportion of county and rural retail sales in total social retail sales reached 38.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3: Urban Service Consumption Demand - Urban areas also show significant potential for service consumption, with education (30.5%), healthcare (29.9%), tourism (25.2%), and social culture and entertainment (23.7%) being the top areas for increased spending [3] - The demand for productive services is expected to grow, driven by innovation and the need for improved logistics services [3] Group 4: Consumer Finance Innovations - Consumer finance companies are expanding their services through collaboration with various sectors, creating diverse consumption scenarios [4] - Companies are leveraging digital technology to enhance service efficiency and user experience, which is essential for meeting diverse consumer needs [4] - New models like "Tianjing" and "Zhaolian Zhilu" are being developed to optimize service delivery and improve user experience [5] Group 5: Policy and Environment for Service Consumption - Supporting service consumption is vital for unleashing domestic demand and promoting high-quality economic development [6] - Continuous optimization of the consumption environment and strengthening digital technology empowerment are necessary to stimulate consumption vitality [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中佳 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果; | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升 · | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 National "Service Consumption Season" and "Su Xin Service · Enjoy Life" event was launched in Nanjing, aiming to enhance service consumption across various sectors and improve consumer experiences through over 160 key activities [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was initiated with participation from 12 central departments, 13 national industry associations, and various local and leading platform enterprises [2]. - Jiangsu province introduced a "Service Consumption Benefit Package" focusing on sectors such as elderly care, catering, and tourism to enhance consumer welfare [2]. - Nanjing released the first edition of the "Ning Enjoy Service" consumption guide, covering 12 fields and featuring nearly 200 selected service points [2]. Group 2: Market Engagement - The "Wander Su Suitable Circle" themed market featured five interactive experience zones, showcasing elements like health consumption, cultural entertainment, and digital consumption [3]. - The market included various brands and activities, such as Michelin food stalls and outdoor camping experiences, promoting a vibrant service consumption atmosphere [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - The event emphasized green and low-carbon development, with carbon emissions scientifically measured and offset to achieve carbon neutrality [4]. - A circular economy market was set up to promote sustainable consumption practices, featuring digital recycling and second-hand products [4]. Group 4: Innovation in Service Consumption - The International Business Daily highlighted ten innovative service consumption case studies, with Nanjing's Hongshan Forest Zoo recognized for its successful integration of experience, IP, and fusion economies [5]. - Nanjing's service consumption development is supported by a robust policy framework and a commitment to high-quality growth, positioning the city as a leader in service consumption innovation [5][6]. Group 5: Future Plans - Nanjing has outlined four strategic blueprints for service consumption, focusing on brand development, innovative scene creation, activity matrix construction, and enhancing digital service capabilities [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May, the A-share market rose slightly overall with a stable index but significant structural changes. The market style was biased towards micro-cap and medical sectors, with relatively average profit - making effects, decreased trading activity, and increased industry rotation speed [3][6]. - Due to the interweaving of internal and external factors, the index is expected to fluctuate in June. Although the most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that exports will maintain high growth in the short - term, with consumption remaining an important driving force for economic recovery [3][31]. - There are three certain main investment lines: domestic demand consumption, domestic substitution, and under - weighted sectors by funds. In June, the market may tend to a defensive style, and attention should be paid to the Internet and consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Three Market - Concerned Core Issues 3.1.1 Core Issue One: Stable Index Points but Significant Structural Changes - In May, the A - share market rose slightly overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly higher. The WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index and CSI 2000 had relatively high gains, while the STAR 50 Index declined [6]. - In terms of industries, environmental protection and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while electronics and social services led the losses. The market style was biased towards micro - cap and medical sectors. The micro - cap style outperformed in May, with the WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index rising 9.3%. The medical and healthcare sector rose 6.2%, outperforming other sectors [11][15]. - The market's profit - making effect was relatively average in May, with the net outflow of equity ETF funds exceeding 40 billion yuan. Market trading activity decreased, while industry rotation speed increased [20][26]. 3.1.2 Core Issue Two: Interweaving of Internal and External Factors, Expected Overall Index Fluctuation - The most severe short - term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Trump's previous trade frictions with many countries and his current short - term compromise are for a buffer for his anti - globalization policies [31][35]. - Trump's previous technology policies against China mainly restricted technology product exports and the development of Chinese enterprises. The new round of US technology policies may focus on restricting the AI industry [39][42]. - US stock enterprises may face greater profit pressure this time, and it is difficult to hedge through tax cuts. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that the economy in the second quarter will remain resilient. Exports may maintain high growth in the short - term, consumption will still be an important driving force for economic recovery, industrial production will remain high, and investment growth is expected to remain high [44][50]. 3.1.3 Core Issue Three: What are the Certain Main Lines? - Domestic demand consumption: It has been the focus of domestic policies, and future policies are expected to continue to catalyze. The consumer industry has relatively low overseas revenue and more resilient performance. Some consumer industries, such as household products, food processing, professional services, and leisure food, are worthy of attention [73]. - Domestic substitution: In 2018, the domestic substitution direction once achieved excess returns. Two investment clues are worthy of attention: industries with high dependence on US imports and strong domestic supply capabilities, and industries with high dependence on US imports but the potential to improve domestic supply capabilities [84][85]. - Under - weighted sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Offering Funds" may have a profound impact on fund industry allocation. Some under - weighted sectors by funds are worthy of attention in the medium - to - long - term, including banks, non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation, but short - term over - interpretation should be avoided [89]. 3.2 A - share Market: May Tend to a Defensive Style in June - Based on the combination of "economic reality" and "market sentiment", the market can be divided into four styles: balanced, pro - cyclical, defensive, and theme - growth and independent prosperity [98]. - In June, the economic reality or economic expectation is less likely to be "strong" in the short - term, and the market sentiment is expected to be weak. Therefore, the market style in June may tend to a defensive style [103][109]. - In a defensive style, attention should be paid to stable or high - dividend industries, such as public utilities, coal, and some sub - sectors [114]. - The five - dimensional industry comparison framework is used to comprehensively analyze and judge industry stock price performance. In May, under the assumption of a decline in market sentiment, the industry grouping effect was good, and the first - group industries achieved excess returns [119][123]. 3.3 Hong Kong Stock Market: Focus on Internet and Consumption Directions In May, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with a significant narrowing of the inflow of southbound funds but a relatively high trading proportion. Attention should be paid to the US restrictions on Chinese concept stocks listed in the US and investment in China. It is recommended to focus on the Internet, automobile, and service consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption market in China is showing enhanced vitality and heat, but there are still constraints to sustained improvement. Future policies should better coordinate the relationship between benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, supply innovation and demand upgrading, as well as current and long-term considerations to effectively expand consumption [1]. Group 1: Consumption Characteristics - The characteristics of consumption in China are marked by rapid growth, new products, new business formats, and new scenarios [2]. - Consumption is maintaining a moderate growth trend, with significant vitality in the market. Key features include rapid growth in service consumption, the emergence of new products and business models, and the rise of consumption in county areas [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is experiencing good growth, driven by policies that promote service consumption and the expansion of consumption scenarios. The focus is shifting from separate development of categories like dining and tourism to integrated and multi-faceted development [4]. - In 2024, China's service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 3 percentage points. Per capita spending on services is projected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Group 3: New Products and Business Models - New technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence are accelerating consumption innovation, leading to rapid development of new products, business formats, and scenarios. The smart home market is expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, with smartphone shipments projected at approximately 286 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6]. - Online retail is also thriving, with a 6.5% growth in physical goods online retail expected in 2024, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3 percentage points. Live streaming and instant retail sales are showing strong growth, with sales increasing by 19.1% and 13.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Group 4: County-Level Consumption - Since 2023, consumption in county areas, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural regions, has become more active. The coverage of county-level tourist attractions has increased significantly, with a rise from 73% in 2012 to 93% in 2023 [7]. - Travel orders from lower-tier cities are expected to grow by nearly 20% in 2024, with outbound travel ticket purchases from residents in third-tier cities and below accounting for over 30% of the total, more than doubling from the previous year [7]. Group 5: New Consumer Groups - The influx of residents from Hong Kong and Macau into mainland cities is creating new consumption dynamics. In 2024, the number of Hong Kong residents traveling north is expected to reach 81.91 million, with total spending exceeding 55.7 billion yuan, both up over 50% from the previous year [8]. - The optimization of visa-free policies has led to a significant increase in inbound tourism, with the number of eligible individuals rising by 113.5% year-on-year in 2024. The diversity of tourist sources and the appeal of lesser-known destinations are also increasing [8].