简评：11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有 效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望得以实施，从而持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比 降幅扩大。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，同比下降 1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点， 同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。 简评：11月70城房价数据呈现"环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大"的特征，其中一线城市11月房价表现不 佳，无论是新房还是二手房，同环比跌幅均有所扩大。投资与销售的双降或显示行业仍处于深度调整 期，基本面尚未扭转。往后看，在中央"着力稳定房地产市场"的定调及各地"因城施策"下，房地产市场 有望在结构分化中逐步寻底。 央行12月12日发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告显 ...

Core Insights - The analysis by Western Fixed Income indicates a significant decline in credit bond defaults for 2025, suggesting an improvement in the credit environment [1] Group 1: Default Trends - The number and amount of credit bond defaults have continued to decrease, with 16 defaults totaling 15.084 billion yuan in 2025, representing a reduction of 54 defaults and 77.145 billion yuan compared to 2024 [2] - The historical peak of default amounts occurred in 2021, with a steady decline observed since then, indicating an improving credit environment [2] - Among the defaults, 11 were substantial defaults, while 5 were extensions, with substantial defaults making up 73.4% of the total from 2014 to 2025 [2] Group 2: Defaulting Entities - All 16 defaulting bonds in 2025 were issued by non-state-owned enterprises, with the real estate sector having the highest number of defaults (4 entities), followed by non-bank financials (3 entities) [4] - The total number of defaulting entities from 2014 to 2025 shows a significant predominance of non-state-owned enterprises, with 265 defaults compared to 46 from state-owned enterprises, indicating higher stability and risk resistance in state-owned enterprises [5] Group 3: Industry Distribution - Defaulting entities span across 30 primary industries, with real estate (57 entities), comprehensive (36 entities), and basic chemicals (18 entities) being the most affected [6] - The real estate sector experienced a peak in defaults from 2022 to 2023, but the number has decreased to 4 in 2025, although it remains a primary risk area in the credit bond market [6] Group 4: Default Rates and Recovery - The marginal default rate for 2025 is 0.22%, the second lowest since 2014, with a total of 5,568 effective issuers at the beginning of the year [9] - The overall recovery rate for defaults since 2014 is 13.76%, with state-owned enterprises achieving a recovery rate of 27.12%, significantly higher than the 10.28% for non-state-owned enterprises [9][11]

非银金融行业资金流向排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300059 | 东方财富 | -0.74 | 1.40 | -18543.41 | | 601211 | 国泰海通 | 1.08 | 0.93 | -12929.15 | | 601688 | 华泰证券 | 2.57 | 1.73 | -7628.75 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | 2.60 | 1.28 | -6133.40 | | 601319 | 中国人保 | 2.81 | 0.30 | -5939.08 | | 002945 | 华林证券 | -3.33 | 0.52 | -5576.11 | | 601456 | 国联民生 | -0.64 | 2.15 | -5405.90 | | 000617 | 中油资本 | -1.21 | 0.38 | -5191.20 | | 601162 | 天风证券 | -1.42 | 1.58 | -3933.39 | | 002670 | 国盛证券 | -1.81 | ...

沪指12月15日下跌0.55%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有13个，涨幅居前的行业为非银金融、商贸零 售，涨幅分别为1.59%、1.49%。食品饮料行业今日上涨0.67%。跌幅居前的行业为电子、通信，跌幅分 别为2.42%、1.89%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出471.84亿元，今日有8个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨0.83%，全天净流入资金22.87亿元，其次是食品饮料行业，日 涨幅为0.67%，净流入资金为11.24亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有23个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金163.31亿元，其次 是电力设备行业，净流出资金为59.19亿元，净流出资金较多的还有有色金属、机械设备、通信等行 业。 食品饮料行业今日上涨0.67%，全天主力资金净流入11.24亿元，该行业所属的个股共124只，今日上涨 的有106只，涨停的有7只；下跌的有15只，跌停的有2只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流 入的个股有71只，其中，净流入资金超5000万元的有8只，净流入资金居首的是莲花控股，今日净流入 资金3.16亿元，紧随其后的是欢乐家、 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55% on December 15, with 13 sectors rising, led by non-bank financials and retail, which increased by 1.59% and 1.49% respectively. The electronic sector experienced the largest decline at 2.42% [2] - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 47.184 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows. The defense and military industry had the highest net inflow of 2.287 billion yuan, rising by 0.83%, followed by the food and beverage sector with a net inflow of 1.124 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.67% [2] Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a decline of 2.42%, with a total net capital outflow of 16.331 billion yuan. Out of 472 stocks in this sector, 99 rose, 2 hit the daily limit up, while 367 fell, with 1 hitting the daily limit down [3] - Among the stocks with net inflows, 146 saw capital inflows, with 8 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan. The top inflow was for Huaying Technology, which received 341 million yuan, followed by Xinwei Communication and Zhenray Technology with inflows of 254 million yuan and 219 million yuan respectively [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Changying Precision, Lixun Precision, and Industrial Fulian, with outflows of 1.421 billion yuan, 1.375 billion yuan, and 950 million yuan respectively [3][5] Capital Flow in Electronic Sector - The top stocks with capital inflows included: - Huaying Technology: +9.96%, 341.12 million yuan - Xinwei Communication: +5.56%, 253.65 million yuan - Zhenray Technology: +12.07%, 219.19 million yuan [4] - The stocks with the largest capital outflows included: - Changying Precision: -4.96%, -1.42089 billion yuan - Lixun Precision: -5.00%, -1.37505 billion yuan - Industrial Fulian: -4.23%, -950.17 million yuan [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the number and scale of credit bond defaults decreased significantly, and the credit environment improved. The number of defaulted bonds was 16, with a total default amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively [1][11]. - All first - time defaulting entities in 2025 were non - state - owned enterprises, and the number of defaults in the real estate industry decreased. Looking ahead to 2026, real estate may still be the main risk point in the credit bond market, and local risks of some weak - qualified small and medium - sized financial institutions should be vigilant, but the probability of a systemic impact on the market is low [1][13]. - The default rate dropped to a historically low level. In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014 [1][22]. - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Default Quantity and Scale Decreased Significantly, Credit Environment Improved**: In 2025, the number and amount of defaulted credit bonds continued the downward trend of the previous year. There were 16 defaulted bonds with a total amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively. From 2014 - 2025, substantial defaults were the main type in the credit bond market (73.4%), and in 2025, there were 11 substantial defaults and 5 extensions [11]. - **First - time Defaulting Entities were All Non - state - owned Enterprises, Real Estate Industry Default Quantity Decreased**: The 16 first - time defaulted bonds in 2025 came from 12 non - state - owned enterprise issuers, covering 6 industries such as real estate and non - bank finance. Historically, non - state - owned enterprises had significantly more defaults than state - owned enterprises. The real estate industry was still the main risk point in 2026, and local risks of some small and medium - sized financial institutions should be watched out for [13][17]. - **Default Rate Dropped to a Historically Low Level**: In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014. The overall recovery rate from 2014 to 2025 was 13.76%, with state - owned enterprises having a higher recovery rate of 27.12% than non - state - owned enterprises at 10.28% [22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Overall, credit bond yields showed mixed trends, with financial bonds performing better than non - financial credit bonds, and the 3 - year non - financial credit bonds performing better [27]. - Wealth management scale and the proportion of broken - net products decreased. The average yield of wealth management products had been declining for 6 consecutive weeks since early November. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy. Institutions with stable liability ends can moderately participate in 3 - year medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds with relatively high spreads [29][36]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Volume**: Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the net financing scale decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased month - on - month, while that of industrial bonds increased [37]. - **Issuance Cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased slightly. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds decreased [45]. - **Issuance Term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance terms of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds increased [47]. - **Cancellation of Issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased last week [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Except for the trading volume of securities firm subordinated bonds, the trading volume of other types of credit bonds rebounded last week, with the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds increasing by over 13 billion yuan. The trading terms of different types of bonds showed different trends in terms of remaining maturity and implied rating [57][58]. - **Trading Liquidity**: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of different terms of each type of bond also showed different trends [59]. - **Spread Tracking**: Last week, most urban investment bond spreads widened, with the 10 - year AA + grade urban investment bond spreads widening the most. Most industrial bond spreads also widened, with the real estate industry having the largest spread widening for both AAA and AA grades. Most bank secondary and perpetual bond spreads narrowed, while the spreads of securities firm subordinated bonds widened across the board, and most insurance subordinated bond spreads narrowed [65][73][76]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scoring, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [80]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review Last week, 3 bonds had their debt ratings downgraded, and there were no upgrades [84].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% closing at 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.10% at 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77% at 3137.8 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 2.22% at 1318.91 points [1] - Overall, there were 2312 stocks that rose and 2965 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 17734 billion yuan, a decrease of 3188 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-bank financials, retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, steel, and building materials showed positive performance with increases of 1.59%, 1.49%, 1.24%, 0.91%, and 0.91% respectively [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, telecommunications, media, machinery, and computers experienced declines, with decreases of 2.42%, 1.89%, 1.63%, 1.36%, and 1.27% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included dairy, selected insurance, chemical fiber selection, three-child policy, large aircraft, fiberglass, SPD, liquor, initial public offering economy, photovoltaic glass, gold and jewelry, cross-strait integration, satellite internet, chemical raw materials selection, and aquaculture [2] - In contrast, sectors such as optical modules (CPO), GPU, optical communication, cultivated diamonds, ASIC chips, optical chips, and Moore threads experienced pullbacks [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:57，今日沪指跌0.22%，A股成交量916.73亿股，成交金额14487.11 亿元，比上一个交易日减少10.31%。个股方面，2693只个股上涨，其中涨停67只，2591只个股下跌， 其中跌停21只。从申万行业来看，商贸零售、非银金融、农林牧渔等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.24%、 1.61%、1.36%；电子、通信、传媒等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.10%、1.41%、1.14%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:57） | 综合 | | | | 东阳光 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.14 | 305.79 | -8.65 | 博纳影业 | -9.96 | | 通信 | -1.41 | 1098.98 | -24.91 | 长飞光纤 | -10.00 | | 电子 | -2.10 | 2580.51 | -17.45 | 芯原股份 | -10.52 | （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | - ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 1.52 | 213.80 | 42.90 | 渤海租赁 | 4.09 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.40 | 152.87 | 1.35 | 中粮糖业 | 9.99 | | 钢铁 | 1.27 | 62.32 | 29.53 | 抚顺特钢 | 10.00 | | 商贸零售 | 1.20 | 187.20 | 25.10 | 百大集团 | 10.02 | | 食品饮料 | 1.04 | 177.92 | 19.13 | 欢乐家 | 19.98 | | 基础化工 | 0.90 | 363.85 | 0.44 | 科强股份 | 23.97 | | 国防军工 | 0.89 | 551.58 | 1.92 | 西测测试 | 20.00 | | 建筑材料 | 0.79 | 95.95 | -5.63 | 再升科技 | 9.96 | | 交通运输 | 0.64 | 121.70 | -9.77 | 嘉友国际 | 10.04 ...

| 电力设备 | | | | 迈为股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.12 | 246.24 | -6.85 | 博纳影业 | -9.96 | | 通信 | -1.15 | 920.56 | -22.73 | 长飞光纤 | -9.81 | | 电子 | -1.75 | 2141.46 | -11.09 | 芯原股份 | -10.43 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 1.78 | 354.71 | 55.14 | 中国平安 | 4.98 | | 商贸零售 | 1.57 | 240.28 | 23.59 | 全新好 | 10.05 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.21 | 192.02 | -2.57 | 中粮糖业 | 9.99 | | 钢铁 | 1.07 | 84.44 | 21.67 | 抚顺特钢 | 10.0 ...