| 油脂产业期现日报 F B | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月19日 王凌娃 Z0019938 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 员阳 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 马来棕榈油进口利润 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月16日 1月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 江苏均价 8540 8460 80 0.95% 现价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2605 8016 7938 78 0.98% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基差 Y2605 524 522 2 0.38% | | | | | | | | | | ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前基层售粮进度已超过五成，东北售粮进度同比偏快，今年过年较迟，年前售粮窗口期相对较长，农户挺价情绪仍存；（2）25/26年度种植成本继 续下降，东北、西北增产，华北减产，全国整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年11月，全国工业饲料产量2873万吨，环比减少1.2%，同比增长2.7%，饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为43.8%； （2）生猪存栏高位，产能去化尚不明显，支撑短期饲用需求，生猪养殖已步入亏损，产能调节和政策调控预期 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]

Core Insights - In 2025, Sichuan's foreign trade enterprises exceeded 10,000 for the first time, with a total import and export value of 1,031.81 billion yuan [1] - Sichuan's exports reached 608.65 billion yuan, maintaining over 600 billion yuan for four consecutive years, while imports were 423.16 billion yuan, remaining above 400 billion yuan for two consecutive years [1] - The number of import and export enterprises in Sichuan grew by 13.8% year-on-year, reaching 10,329, with private enterprises surpassing 9,000 for the first time [1] Group 1 - High-value-added and specialty products became new engines for exports, with electromechanical products' import and export value at 820.12 billion yuan, a 2% increase [2] - Exports of "new three samples" products, including lithium batteries, reached 33.77 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a growth of 69.4% [2] - Agricultural products' import and export value grew by 15%, reaching 30.95 billion yuan, with 15 types of agricultural products entering international markets for the first time [2] Group 2 - Chengdu's dual airport operation model (Chengdu Tianfu International Airport and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport) facilitated over 700 billion yuan in imports and exports, accounting for 8.6% of China's air freight [2] - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone's import and export value reached 525.69 billion yuan, leading China's comprehensive bonded zones and becoming a key platform for global industrial chain cooperation [2]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as long - positions, short - positions, or waiting and seeing based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Market performance shows London gold at $4600/oz. Fundamentals involve geopolitical and Fed - related news. Domestic gold ETF inflow is 0.8 tons. Suggested strategy is to go long as the price is rising steadily [2]. - Silver: London silver price is stable at $90/oz. There are inventory changes and speculation factors. It is recommended to participate with caution due to high speculation sentiment [2]. 3.2 Base Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum contract price dropped by 1.85%. Supply capacity increased slightly, demand improved marginally. Short - term price may remain high - level volatile [3]. - Alumina: The price fell 1.36%. Supply is stable, demand from electrolytic aluminum is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price decreased by 1.43%. Supply decreased in some areas, demand has reduction expectations. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200, and short positions can be considered at high prices [3][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price dropped significantly. Supply increased slightly in the short - term but may decline in January. Demand from battery materials is expected to decrease. The price is expected to correct with support at 120,000 [4]. - Polysilicon: The price increased by 3.14%. Supply decreased, demand from some downstream sectors declined. The market may shift from loose to tight balance [4]. 3.3 Black Industry - Rebar: The price dropped. Supply - demand is neutral - weak, with structural differences. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RB05 contract [5]. - Iron Ore: The price fell. Supply - demand is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [6]. - Coking Coal: The price rose slightly. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short the JM05 contract [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term and large in the long - term. The US soybeans are seeking a bottom, and the domestic far - month contracts are under pressure [7]. - Corn: Futures prices are strong, spot prices are rising. Supply is not under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Oils: The market is volatile. Supply is in weak seasonal reduction, demand for exports improved. It is expected to be volatile, and mid - term attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - Sugar: The price of the SR05 contract dropped. International and domestic sugar markets are under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - Cotton: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. US cotton exports are good, Brazilian planting area decreased. It is recommended to buy at low prices with a reference range of 14400 - 14900 [8]. - Eggs: Futures prices rebounded, spot prices are stable. Supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. Futures prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Pigs: Futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, spot prices rose. Supply pressure is small in the short - term, and prices are expected to be strong but may correct later [8]. 3.5 Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The contract price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eases, demand is weak in the agricultural film season. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions can be considered at low prices [10]. - PVC: The price dropped 0.4%. Supply is high, demand is weak seasonally. It is recommended to do reverse arbitrage [10][11]. - PTA: PX and PTA supply are high, demand is weak in the off - season. PX can be long - term long, and the 05 contract of PTA can be used to long the processing fee [11]. - Glass: The price rose 0.5%. Supply is decreasing, demand is weak. It is recommended to long glass and short soda ash [11]. - PP: The contract price dropped slightly. Supply pressure increases, demand is stable. Short - term oscillation, long - term short positions can be considered at high prices [11]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Crude Oil: Prices fluctuated this week. Supply is high, demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Styrene: The contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, styrene inventory is normal. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions of styrene or reverse arbitrage of pure benzene can be considered [12]. - Soda Ash: The price rose 1%. Supply is large, demand is weak. It is recommended to short or long glass and short soda ash [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term, and long - term focus should be on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes [2] - For sugar, international production increase expectations need to be monitored, and in the domestic market, short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, while long - term may look for out - of - quota import cost [6] - Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment [7] - Egg price trends depend on demand and chicken culling data, with different impacts on the second - quarter price [7] - Apple prices are mixed, with good - quality apples stable and lower - quality ones weakening, and the 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [11] - Pig prices may have short - term fluctuations, and futures price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction, with attention to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11] Group 3: Summary by Category Corn/Starch - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, corn base price in Changchun remained at 2160 - 2180, and starch base price in Heilongjiang was 2750. The corn base difference increased by 14, and the starch base difference increased by 10 [1] Sugar - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the spot price in Liuzhou remained at 5390. The base difference increased by 22, and the import profit decreased by 112. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 392 [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 100, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 11. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 397 [7] Eggs - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.09, 0.09, 0.10, 0.10, and 0.11 respectively. The base difference increased by 111 [7] Apples - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national inventory increased by 266, and the Shaanxi inventory increased by 234 [10][11] Pigs - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.10, 0.10, and 0.10 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.05. The base difference increased by 70 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure, so it's advisable to stay cautious [6]. - The central electricity consumption in China reached 10.4 trillion kWh in 2025, and the stock index is expected to have its volatility center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex, and there is a significant speculative sentiment in precious metals. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to weakly fluctuate, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - term corrections may occur. Investors can go long on dips [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded but faced resistance. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [21]. - After 2025 Q4, the ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure. One can consider long positions in the low - level range [24]. - The crude oil is expected to continue its rebound, and one can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is bearish, but the stable cost of crude oil provides support. One can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [27]. - The new demand in high - end manufacturing supports the modified PP industry. The market is waiting for PDH maintenance, and one can focus on long opportunities in polyolefin [29]. - The synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [33]. - The natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [35]. - The PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly due to policy expectations and potential supply - demand improvement [36]. - The urea price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. One can participate in the range and beware of external market risks [40]. - The PTA is expected to oscillate. Operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, due to supply increase and inventory pressure, it's advisable to observe cautiously [44]. - The short - fiber may fluctuate with raw material prices. Control risks and pay attention to cost and downstream stocking [46]. - The bottle - chip may follow the cost to fluctuate. Participate cautiously and pay attention to maintenance implementation [47]. - The soda ash should be traded within the range in the short term, paying attention to policy - driven market changes [49]. - The glass is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [50]. - The outlook for caustic soda is not optimistic under the current supply - demand situation [52]. - The pulp market is under pressure from inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak [53]. - The lithium carbonate price may have increased short - term volatility, but there is strong support below [55]. - The copper price is at a high level and may adjust [57]. - The aluminum price is at a high level and may adjust [60]. - Be cautious when chasing the rise of zinc [62]. - The lead price will maintain range - bound fluctuations [65]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but control risks [66]. - The nickel is in an oversupply situation, and follow - up policies in Indonesia need attention [68]. - For soybean meal, one can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, long positions can consider exiting on rallies [70]. - One can consider long opportunities in palm oil after corrections [73]. - One can consider reducing positions in the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and oil [75]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. Buy on dips after corrections [77]. - The upward space for sugar is limited in the medium - and long - term, and the upward pressure is increasing [81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [86]. - For live pigs, it's advisable to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [87]. - For eggs, a positive spread strategy can be considered [88]. - The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of corn supply pressure [90]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 5362 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The import pulp market sentiment turned weak, prices showed a divergent trend, and the inventory was at a relatively high level, continuing the cumulative trend. The spot trading was light [53]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day's main contract fell 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment cooled down. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was gradually decreasing. The price had strong support below, but short - term volatility might increase [54][55]. Copper - The previous trading day's Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The supply was extremely tight, but high prices inhibited demand, and the inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [56][57]. Aluminum - The previous trading day's Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The alumina supply was in significant excess, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [58][59]. Zinc - The previous trading day's Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,405 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The raw material supply was tight, and the consumption was seasonally weak. Be cautious when chasing the rise [61][62]. Lead - The previous trading day's Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The supply was restricted, and the demand was differentiated. The price maintained range - bound fluctuations [63][64]. Tin - The previous trading day's Shanghai tin main contract fell 8.42% to 379,400 yuan/ton. The supply was tight, and the demand had certain resilience. The price was expected to fluctuate strongly [66]. Nickel - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.1% to 139,890 yuan/ton. The cost was expected to rise, but the consumption was not optimistic, and it was in an oversupply situation [67][68]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.76% to 2727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.63% to 8016 yuan/ton. The soybean supply was relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal was growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improved slightly [69][70]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose for two consecutive weeks. The export increased, and the domestic inventory was at a medium level in the past 7 years. One can consider long opportunities after corrections [71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are decreasing. One can consider reducing spread positions [74][75]. Cotton - The previous trading day's domestic cotton futures fluctuated down. The USDA report was favorable, and the domestic supply was expected to be tight in the future, with demand showing resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [76][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day's Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. India had a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faced double - supply pressure. The upward space was limited in the medium - and long - term [79][81]. Apple - The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fell more than 2%. The inventory was at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality declined. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [83][85]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.42% to 11,980 yuan/ton. The supply in the first quarter might face great pressure, and it's advisable to wait and see [87]. Eggs - The previous trading day's main contract rose 0.39% to 3072 yuan/500kg. The supply in January was expected to be at a high level, and a positive spread strategy could be considered [88]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.13% to 2281 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.04% to 2555 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needed to be further released, and the starch might follow the corn market [89][90]. Logs - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The supply was abundant, and the market was stable. The price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/19 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： PatriaAgroNegocios:巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为1.39% 咨询公司PatriaAgroNegocios发布的数据显示，巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率达到1.39%，而去年同期为0.23%。 Patria称，五年同期均值水平为1.02%。 在马托格罗索州，大豆收割率接近5%。该公司补充称："马托格罗索州的进度是积极的，即使是在种植较早的地 区，在本年度之初也面临有限的天气条件。" Safras：巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计将达到1.7928亿吨 巴西农业咨询机构Safras&Mercado称，巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计将达到1.7928亿吨，较其在去年11月预测的 1.7876亿吨有所上调。 Safras称，产量较前一年度相比预计高出4.3%，并创下纪录新高。 巴西大豆种植面积预计将同比扩大1.5%，至4,833万公顷，约合1.1943亿英亩。预计平均单产为每公顷3,728公斤， 高于2024/25年度的每公顷3,625公斤。 Safras表示，对预估进行上修主要反映了中西部一些州的前景 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 6.5 to close at 1056.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.61%; the May bean meal contract fell 59 to 2727 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.12%; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 40 to 3100 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.27%; the May rapeseed meal contract declined 83 to 2255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.55%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2450 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.39% [4][7]. - The external market was under pressure and oscillated. The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation, the ongoing Brazilian harvest, and the significant increase in the January export supply put pressure on the market. Support factors included the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestically, the overall price of meal products declined. The auction of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. Additionally, the trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. The easing of China - Canada trade relations led to expectations of increased long - term rapeseed meal supply [4][8]. - After the release of the USDA report, the reduction in US soybean exports and the increase in Brazilian production had an overall bearish impact. China's goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year was basically achieved, and the full sale of imported soybean auctions in China alleviated the expectation of short - term supply tightness. The inventories of soybeans and bean meal at oil mills were at a high level compared to the same period. As the subsequent arrivals decreased month - on - month, the inventory reduction pace might accelerate. The pre - holiday stocking demand continued, and the trading volume of bean meal increased significantly last week. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | January 16th | January 9th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1056.25 | 1062.75 | - 6.50 | - 0.61% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 450.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.44% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 473.00 | 475.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.42% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 37.87 | 49.51 | - 11.65 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2727.00 | 2786.00 | - 59.00 | - 2.12% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2255.00 | 2338.00 | - 83.00 | - 3.55% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 472.00 | 448.00 | 24.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3140.00 | - 20.00 | - 0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3140.00 | - 40.00 | - 1.27% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 373.00 | 354.00 | 19.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - External market: The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation (Brazil's harvest work is ongoing, and the January export supply has been significantly increased; the crop conditions in the Argentine production area are good), the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestic market: The overall price of meal products declined. The auction of 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. The trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. Canada's rapeseed is expected to enter China normally from March 1, 2026. China will reduce the comprehensive tax rate from about 85% to 15% and cancel relevant counter - tariffs on rapeseed meal, etc., with the validity period until the end of 2026, making rapeseed meal perform more weakly [8]. - The January USDA report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels (previously estimated at 290 million bushels), indicating a more relaxed supply. Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, and the export demand is 114 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons from the previous month. Argentina's soybean production is estimated to be 48.5 million tons, remaining unchanged, and the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons [9]. - As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the farm inventory was 1.58 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and the non - farm inventory was 1.71 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. As of the week of January 8, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 2.062 million tons (compared to 878,000 tons in the previous week). The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 30.637 million tons, with a sales progress of 71.5% (compared to 80.1% in the same period last year). China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 1.224 million tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 8.117 million tons and an unshipped volume of 6.024 million tons. Last week, private exporters reported exporting 706,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,404 tons of soybeans to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, it is estimated that the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year has been achieved. In December 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the US soybean crushing margin was 2.12 US dollars per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 305.23 US dollars per short ton, and the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 10.62 US dollars per bushel. As of the week of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6% (compared to 0.1% last week, 0.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 1%). Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to be 3.73 million tons (previously estimated at 2.4 million tons). As of the week of January 14, 2026, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9% (compared to 88.3% in the previous week and 98.2% in the same period last year). The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazil's soybean production area will be slightly lower than the average, and the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area is expected to be 50 mm, lower than the normal level [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.0856 million tons compared to the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 126,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 439,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a decrease of 389,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 846,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.028 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 315,700 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 665,720 tons (including 114,700 tons of spot trading and 551,020 tons of forward trading, compared to a daily average total trading volume of 305,420 tons in the previous week); the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 185,900 tons (compared to 173,850 tons in the previous week). The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9942 million tons (compared to 1.7658 million tons in the previous week), and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 9.94 days (compared to 9.53 days in the previous week) [12]. Industry News - South American production forecasts show that Brazil's upcoming soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 178.7 million tons, and Argentina's production is estimated to be 51.1 million tons. The current weather forecast does not show extreme conditions, consolidating the expectation of a large supply in South America and putting pressure on the international market [14]. - As of the week of January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 22.1% to 147,800 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 2.8088 million tons, a 40.5% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.0012 million tons [14]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 0.6% (compared to 0.3% in the same period last year). Mato Grosso is leading the harvest process, and there is also some harvest activity in Paraná. Some areas have a slightly delayed harvest due to the extended growth cycle of soybeans [14]. - As of January 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 0.53% (compared to only 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39% in the same period). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean - producing state, is higher than the recent average but lower than the 2024 harvest progress. In other regions of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly concentrated in irrigated areas [15]. - In early January 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was 645,738 tons (compared to 1.069 million tons in January 2025). The average daily export volume as of now in January is 107,623 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.5% [15]. - The CONAB agency has revised down the estimated production of Brazil's soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 176.1 million tons (previously estimated at 177.1 million tons), the planted area to 48.7 million hectares (previously estimated at 48.9 million hectares), and the export volume to 111.8 million tons (previously estimated at 112.1 million tons) [15]. - The Agroconsult agency expects Brazil's soybean planted area in the 2025/26 season to be 48.8 million hectares, the same as the November forecast, and the production to be 182.2 million tons, higher than the November forecast of 178.1 million tons. As the crop inspection progresses, there is still room to further revise up the forecast of Brazil's soybean production [16].