大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2510 合约收于 79790 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%，沪铜指数减仓 3280 手至 48.59 万 手。 2.现货：进口货源继续低价出货，沪铜升水继续走低，报升水 60 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 6 连降，持货商本欲挺价出货但下游接受能力一般，现货升水持平昨 日，报升水 40 元/吨。华北由于高铜价抑制消费，现货升贴水下行，报贴水 150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.根据美国政府周二公布的初步基准修订数据，截至 3 月的一年间的非农就业人数下修 91.1 万，相当于每月平 ...

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices remained stable, supported by a significant drop in the US dollar, following a key employment report suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price closed at $9,897.50 per ton, down $0.50 or 0.01% [2] - The US employment report indicated a slowdown in job growth for August, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates has improved the outlook for metals reliant on economic growth, with the US dollar index dropping by 0.6%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4] - The copper premium in China’s Yangshan remained stable at a three-month high of $57 per ton, while JX Advanced Metals indicated potential cuts in copper production due to tight supply, providing additional support for copper prices [7] - LME three-month aluminum and zinc prices increased by $9.00 (0.35%) to $2,600.50 and $17.50 (0.62%) to $2,861.00, respectively [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore and zinc ingot continue to be in a surplus situation, with inventory accumulation in both ore and ingot. The TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc is weakly operating. The domestic supply side remains loose, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises have not improved significantly. The LME market has experienced long - term destocking, resulting in low LME zinc warrants and an increase in the LME zinc monthly spread. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets has intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated its decline. Currently, there are high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. From the perspective of capital positions, some institutional and foreign capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with a high consensus on shorting the variety. It is expected that the short - term downward space is limited, and it will show a low - level oscillation pattern [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted price of SHFE zinc first rose and then fell, closing down 0.74% at 22,140 yuan/ton, with the total open interest slightly increasing to 223,700 lots. LME zinc 3M oscillated upward, closing up 1.63% at 2,814 dollars/ton, and the open interest slightly increased to 191,500 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 21,970 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of - 65 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 75 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 65 yuan/ton, and a flat price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton [25][27][29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. In July, the net import of zinc ingots was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of - 46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In July 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In July 2025, the supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 88,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a shortage of - 42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 7,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned net short, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also decreased, indicating a bearish view from the position perspective [69].

Group 1: Macro Insights - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold rising nearly 7% to $3,578 per ounce and COMEX gold touching $3,640 per ounce, reinforcing the "long bull" logic for gold as a long-term investment [2][4] - The report emphasizes the unique long-term allocation value of gold amidst profound changes in global geopolitical logic and financial systems, suggesting that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook remains positive [2][4] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - A comprehensive multi-factor framework for the Hong Kong stock market has been constructed, analyzing 339 factors across four main categories: price-volume, fundamentals, liquidity, and consensus expectations [2] - The report highlights the statistical performance of different types of factors and explores the factor effects across market capitalization and industry, as well as the impact of southbound capital on factor effectiveness [2] - A stock selection strategy has been implemented, resulting in an annualized return of 10.57% for a selected 50-stock portfolio and an annualized excess return of 8.65% for an enhanced southbound stock portfolio [2] Group 3: Fixed Income and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the evolution of global trade order, emphasizing the shift from cooperation to friction in economic relations, and the transition towards regionalization and fragmentation in industrial division [4] - It notes that the current global supply-demand imbalance, conflicts over pricing power, and the debt cycle are accelerating the restructuring of trade order, presenting both challenges and opportunities for China [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - For the company "乖宝宠物" (Guaibao Pet), the report attributes its leadership in the pet food market to continuous innovation in products, deep channel development, and effective marketing strategies, maintaining a target price of 130 CNY and a "buy" rating [7] - "蔚来" (NIO) reported a revenue of 31 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and is expected to continue cost reduction and efficiency improvements, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - "旺能环境" (Wangneng Environment) achieved a revenue of 1.701 billion CNY in H1 2025, with growth driven by its waste incineration projects and expansion into new business areas, also maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - "黑芝麻智能" (Heizhima Intelligent) reported a revenue of 253 million CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and is expected to expand its product line and improve software algorithms, maintaining a "buy" rating with a target price of 24.46 HKD [10]

Core Viewpoint - Yimen Copper Industry is undergoing a digital transformation, enhancing operational efficiency and safety through advanced technologies and smart systems, positioning itself as a leader in the copper smelting industry [1][9]. Group 1: Digital Transformation and Efficiency - Yimen Copper has integrated a smart control center that monitors over 9,000 parameters and 500 equipment statuses, reducing response time in fire smelting from 30 minutes to 5 minutes and increasing overall process efficiency by 40% [3][4]. - The company has developed a "Supply-Production Intelligent Matching Model" that compresses the raw material allocation time from one day to minutes, significantly improving procurement decision cycles from one week to one day [4][9]. - Automation in the acid production process has led to a 28.57% reduction in hydrogen peroxide consumption per ton of acid, with a product qualification rate stabilizing at over 99.9% [4][8]. Group 2: Safety Management Innovations - An AI-based video monitoring system has been implemented to detect safety violations, resulting in a 60% reduction in such incidents by promoting a culture of safety awareness among employees [7][9]. - The company has established a comprehensive safety management platform that integrates personnel tracking and hazardous gas monitoring, achieving a zero incident rate for unauthorized access to dangerous areas since 2023 [7][9]. - Automation in various operational areas, including unmanned substations and intelligent material handling, has significantly reduced safety risks associated with manual operations [8][9]. Group 3: Talent Development and Future Plans - Yimen Copper is focusing on building a skilled workforce adept in both business and digital technologies, implementing various training and recruitment strategies to enhance digital capabilities [9][10]. - The company plans to launch a second phase of its smart factory project, aiming to further establish itself as a benchmark for digital transformation in the copper smelting sector [10].

Group 1 - The company issued 21,460,000 convertible bonds with a total fundraising amount of RMB 2,146,000,000, approved by the regulatory authority [1] - The convertible bonds are set to be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange starting March 6, 2024, under the name "铜陵定02" and code "124024" [1] - As of September 2023, 财通基金管理有限公司 held 10,000,000 bonds, representing 46.60% of the total issuance [1] Group 2 - From December 31, 2024, to August 29, 2025, 财通基金 reduced its holdings by a total of 3,100,000 bonds through selling and conversion, which is 14.45% of the total issuance [1] - The detailed changes in holdings before and after the reduction are provided, showing the impact on the percentage of total bonds held [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing adoption of magnesium alloys in the electric vehicle industry due to their lightweight, electromagnetic shielding, and vibration damping properties [1] - As of August 29, 2025, the number of shareholders for Baowu Magnesium Industry is reported to be 56,894 [1] - Leading electric vehicle companies such as Aima, Yadi, and Niu have begun using magnesium alloy components in their products, leading to significant weight reduction, improved range, and enhanced shock absorption [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the shift towards magnesium alloys will dilute production costs and create a cost advantage over aluminum alloys, thereby promoting the growth of magnesium applications [1] - Following the release of new national standards in 2024, companies across the electric vehicle supply chain have actively initiated the replacement of plastic parts with magnesium alloys [1] - It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the usage of magnesium in electric two-wheelers will continue to increase rapidly [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]