研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 油脂周报：油脂仍受政策端扰动，关注下周两大月报 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 n 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1.三大预估机构预计马棕1月产量环比减少12-14%至160万吨左右，出口变现有所好转至142万吨，库存或将去库至290 万吨左右。 2.美国财政部本周发布了45Z税收抵免拟议规则，新规中将生物燃料的生产原料定为美国、加拿大、墨西哥地区，还取消 了间接土地利用变化惩罚等。此外，周三中美领导人通话传言中国将本季美豆采购承诺增至2000万吨。 3.近期油脂受贸易及政策预期等因素影响较多，经历了前期快速上涨，近日上涨乏力有所回落。马棕1月或将减产去库， 但高基数下马棕库存或持续维持偏高水平，不过马来和印尼库存有所分化，两国合计库存仍不算宽松。美国生柴预期向好 将利好美豆油消费需求等，对豆油存在潜在利多。不过豆油整体上没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点，市场传中国将本季美 豆采购承诺增至2000万吨，且新一轮拍储或在节后进行，豆油供应压力可能后移，也将制约 ...

金瑞期货：贵金属价格尚未完成底部再平衡，短期或延续高波动状态 转自：新华财经 金瑞期货最新早报观点认为，市场情绪回暖，叠加地缘方面仍保持紧张，金银价格出现显著反弹。短期 看，金银价格尚未完成底部再平衡，金银或延续高波动状态，走势上不排除出现再次探底与反复拉锯。 但中长期看，全球高债务、地缘风险及白银结构性短缺等核心支撑未变，金银调整后仍具备上行基础。 近期需重点关注沃什政策主张及非农数据。 五矿期货表示，当前行情维持高位震荡，市场普遍定价美联储6月降息预期，为金价提供了核心基本面 支撑；在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，博斯蒂克表态称，在高通胀持续的环境下，需等到4-5月数 据才能给出更明确的政策信号，并暗示美联储可能需要更多依托非官方数据来评估经济形势。同时，前 期集中抛售也为场外观望资金提供了逢低布局的机会，金价中期趋势仍偏向震荡上行。 申银万国期货表示，此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响。1月30日特 朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期降温， 同时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1月以来贵金属快速上涨，波动率已处 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.28 with a -4.41bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.08bp change, GC001 at 1.29 with a -13.50bp change, GC007 at 1.60 with a 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a -0.05bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.44bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with a -0.69bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a -0.41bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.22 with a 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4055 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week, with 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday and Friday respectively [4] - This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 750 billion, 1055 billion, 750 billion, 1185 billion, and 315 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts: CSI 300 closed at 4644 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4640 with a -%0.7 change; SSE 50 at 3038 with a -0.69% change, IH current month at 3037 with a -%0.9 change; CSI 500 at 8146 with no change and IC current month at 814 with a -0.%1 change; CSI 1000 at 8052 with a -0.20% change, IM current month at at 8027 with a -0.6% change [6] - The trading volume and open interest changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 118040 with a 1.8% change, IF open interest was at 29 with a -%1. change; IH trading volume was 55 with a 2. change, IH open interest was at 109 with a 0. change; IC trading volume was 19 with no change, IC open interest was at 31 with a -%2. change; IM trading volume was 24 with a 4. change, IM open interest was at 40 with a 1. change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.6, SSE 50 fell 0.93% to 3037.9, CSI 500 fell 2.68% to 8146.4, and CSI 1000 fell 2.46% to 8051.6. A - share trading volume shrank significantly due to pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. The daily trading volumes last week were 26066 billion, 25656 billion, 25033 billion, 21943 billion, and 21635 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 6565.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, food and beverage (4.3%), power equipment (2.2%), comprehensive (2%), transportation (1.9%), and banking (1.7%) led the gains last week, while non - ferrous metals (-8.5%), communication (-6.9%), electronics (-5.2%), steel (-3.3%), and computer (-3.3%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - During the US stock earnings season, the performance of the AI industry chain is under test, and US stock volatility has increased. Chip giants like NVIDIA and AMD have seen continuous stock price adjustments, and internet giants like Google and Amazon have raised market concerns due to poor profit efficiency and under - expected performance [7] - Last week, the domestic news was relatively calm, the selling pace of broad - based ETFs slowed down, indicating a significant weakening of regulatory control. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the total A - share trading volume narrowed significantly to around 2.1 billion yuan. Overseas, the increased volatility of non - ferrous metals and US technology stocks has had a significant impact on domestic non - ferrous and technology sectors [7] - In the short term, after a volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations to accumulate strength for further upward movement. In the long run, in the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the process of bottom - building, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end. The strategy is that stock index pullbacks may be opportunities to enter long positions [7] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [8]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-09 市场流动性概况 2026-02-06，股指板块成交9254.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.21%；持仓金额16736.61亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.38%；成交持仓比为54.57%。 国债板块成交4263.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.29%；持仓金额9155.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.90%；成交持 仓比为46.67%。 基本金属板块成交8776.26亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.64%；持仓金额6380.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.07%；成 交持仓比为146.35%。 贵金属板块成交14631.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-28.56%；持仓金额4877.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.50%；成 交持仓比为378.51%。 能源化工板块成交5435.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.90%；持仓金额4862.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.27%；成 交持仓比为99.16%。 农产品板块成交2096.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.97%；持仓金额6117.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成交 持仓比为32.33%。 黑色建材板块成交1753 ...

以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | 113.08 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5270 | -504.81 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5310 | -249.54 | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/09 SP主力合约收盘价： 5234.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/06 | 2026/02/05 | 2026/02/04 | 2026/02/03 | 2026/02/02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5234.00 | 5254.00 | 5324.00 | 5276.00 | 5266.00 | | 折美元价 | 658.48 | 660.96 | 670.20 | 664.21 | 661.49 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.38066% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate. The soybean No.1 spot is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price will fluctuate [2][4]. - The callback range of corn futures prices is limited [2][7]. - The sugar futures prices will be sorted in a narrow range [2][10]. - The cotton futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend before the holiday [2][15]. - The egg futures prices will be adjusted in a volatile manner [2][21]. - The peak season for live pigs is not prosperous, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [2][25]. - The peanut futures prices will fluctuate [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of DCE soybean No.1 2605 and DCE soybean meal 2605 in the day - session were 4378 yuan/ton (-12, -0.27%) and 2735 yuan/ton (+5, +0.18%) respectively. The overnight CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1114.75 cents/bushel (+2.5, +0.22%). The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [4]. - **News**: The US President said that China will increase soybean purchases, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the January supply - demand report on February 10. Analysts predict the US and global soybean ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean exports in January decreased compared with December but increased compared with last January. The Argentine soybean crop good - to - excellent rate decreased compared with a week ago but was higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [6]. 2. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of C2603 and C2605 were 2274 yuan/ton (+0.31%) and 2279 yuan/ton (+0.22%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of the main 03 contract was 61 yuan/ton, and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread was - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping and containerized shipping prices in ports had different changes. The prices of imported sorghum and barley from different origins and time periods were also provided [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [9]. 3. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.11 cents/pound (-0.16), the mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton (+10), and the futures main - contract price was 5228 yuan/ton (+4). The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton (+31), and the 59 - spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-8) [10]. - **News**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the Indian sugar production increased year - on - year, the Brazilian sugar exports decreased year - on - year, and the Chinese sugar imports increased in December. The CAOC predicted China's sugar production, consumption, and imports. The ISO predicted the global sugar supply surplus. The production data of Brazil, India, and Thailand were also provided [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [13]. 4. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of CF2605 and CY2605 were 14580 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and 20405 yuan/ton (-0.20%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The spot prices of cotton in different regions also had different changes [16]. - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn quotation was stable, and the pre - holiday trading atmosphere was light. The ICE cotton futures continued to fall due to the rapid increase in warehouse receipts [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [18]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of egg2603 and egg2604 were 2904 yuan/500kg (-0.34%) and 3165 yuan/500kg (+0.32%) respectively. The 3 - 4 spread was - 261 yuan/500kg, and the 4 - 9 spread was - 714 yuan/500kg. The spot prices of eggs in different regions and the prices of related feed and livestock had different changes [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [23]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 12430 yuan/ton (-450), 11650 yuan/ton (0), and 11860 yuan/ton (-200) respectively. The closing prices of different futures contracts also decreased year - on - year. The trading volume and positions of different contracts decreased. The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts also had different changes [26]. - **News**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts for March contracts [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 2 [28]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The closing prices of PK603 and PK605 were 8054 yuan/ton (+0.07%) and 7918 yuan/ton (-0.03%) respectively. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes. The basis of different varieties and the 03 - 05 inter - period spread were also provided [30]. - **News**: The peanut spot prices in different regions were stable, and the pre - holiday trading was basically ending in some areas [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [32].

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：春节假期叠加宏观扰动 延续震荡整理 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周碳酸锂期货主力合约收至 132920 元/吨，成交量增至 58.67 万手，持仓降至 32.86 万手。资金面主力净空延续，前五名净持仓多空比环 比微降，资金在节前偏向谨慎防御；广期所碳酸锂日库存 33777 手，较上 一日减少 10 手。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 134500 元/吨，电工价差 3500 元/ 吨。从市场成交情况看，上游锂盐厂惜售挺价情绪强烈；下游材料厂采取 逢低采购策略，春节备库基本接近尾声，市场询价和成交情况相对稳定。 随着春节临近，资金避险情绪上涨；同时市场波动率处于历史高位，盘面 易受短期情绪及资金流动影响，注意持仓风险。 基本面来看，供应端上周来看，原料市场普跌，SMM 总周度开工率 47.29%（-2.21%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 周度总产 量 20744 吨（-825 吨）。需求端上周数据显示， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：逢低买入推动美股周五反弹，金价回升；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨2.99个基点报 4.206%；美元指数跌0.36%报97.61离岸人民币对美元升值报6.9298；COMEX黄金期货 涨2.03%报4988.60美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1090.12，现货1086.04，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104052 千克，不变；偏空 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长及美联储委员讲话、欧元区2月Senti ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-9 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求良好，工业需求方面，复 合肥需求稳、三聚氰胺开工回落。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整体仍供过于 求。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-16，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.4万吨（-0.5），偏多； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-9 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1072元/吨，基差为-128元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5306.40万重量箱，较前一周增加0.95%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，行业存在进一步冷修预期。 利空： 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位，下游深加 ...