1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market is highly uncertain in the short term, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. Shanghai gold night session closed down 0.94% at 1137.50 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.60% at 21706 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 12, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.429 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.852 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 19.5% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the daily price limit is 17%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 18%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the daily price limit is 20%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 21%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 22% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, with an estimate of 215,000 and a previous value of 213,000 [1] - Iran's new supreme leader stated in his first statement that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary. Trump said that the US makes a lot of money when oil prices rise and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and many ships can still pass through the strait if coordinated with the Iranian navy [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index rose 0.48% to 99.74, strengthening for the third consecutive trading day. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise to 4.269%. Iran's new supreme leader's first statement showed a tough stance. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 10.62% to $101.75 per barrel on Thursday, closing above the $100 mark again after four years. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, COMEX gold and COMEX silver both declined on Thursday. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran have supported the gold price to some extent due to market risk - aversion sentiment [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, redemption pressure in the private credit market, and a sharp decline in US stocks, both gold and silver prices fell. The US dollar continued to rise, and the risk - appetite continued to decline. Gold is expected to fluctuate, while silver prices remain under pressure [4][5]. - In the medium - term, with the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. Rising oil prices have increased concerns about stagflation [8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.49% to 99.75, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 510 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the main force's net long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 58,115 kilograms. The main force's net long position increased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Dubai witnessed multiple drone attacks, escalating the situation in the Middle East. Concerns about inflation have decreased, and expectations of interest - rate cuts have cooled. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4.9 yuan per gram, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Silver**: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to heat up, and there is redemption pressure in the private credit market. Silver prices have fallen, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan per kilogram. Concerns about oil prices have resurfaced, and silver prices remain under pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 15:00, pay attention to the UK's January GDP, industrial output, and goods trade balance. - At 15:45, focus on France's February CPI final value. - At 17:45, listen to the speech of European Central Bank Governing Council member Wunsch. - At 20:30, watch for the US's January personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), preliminary durable goods orders, and the fourth - quarter GDP revision, as well as Canada's February unemployment rate. - At 22:00, focus on the preliminary value of the US's March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. - On Saturday, there is the Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference. - On Sunday, there is the 315 Gala [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.1, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The futures warehouse receipts are 105,420 kilograms, an increase of 510 kilograms, which is bearish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 233, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 309,974 kilograms, an increase of 58,115 kilograms, which is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.6. Factors Affecting Gold and Silver - **Gold** - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, rising expectations of easing, sharp decline in the US dollar, and the resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes [10][11]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [10][11]. - **Silver** - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, potential determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices, low spot inventory, and intense supply - shortage games [10][11]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, deterioration of risk appetite, and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass production profit has slightly recovered, cold repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The short - term glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. - The main logic is that with low glass supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventory, the glass is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures is 1113 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass is 972 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis is - 141 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.71% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 972 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The glass production profit has slightly recovered [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 210, with an operating rate of 70.81%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The glass production profit is at a low level, and the production volume is decreasing [4]. - **Negative factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bullish, with both expected to have strong performance today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the tense situation in Iran and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, has led to an increase in external crude oil prices at night. The downstream demand for both is recovering, although there are some differences in specific sectors. The inventory levels of both are neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and external crude oil prices rose at night. On the supply - demand side, the downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector have significantly increased their开工, the spring plowing demand has started, the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand, and the construction of the pipe sector has gradually started. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 8450 (+700), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 214, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran affecting oil prices, external crude oil prices rose at night, the inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will have a strong performance today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and external crude oil prices rose at night. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The plastic weaving sector has slightly increased its开工, and enterprise orders have improved, while the BOPP sector's开工 rate has abnormally decreased, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current PP delivery spot price is 8650 (+450), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 347, and the premium - discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran affecting oil prices, external crude oil prices rose at night, the inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will have a strong performance today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 8450, up 700; the price of the 05 contract is 8236, up 82; the basis is 214, up 618; the warehouse receipt is 8101, down 130; the comprehensive PE factory warehouse inventory is 62.5 tons, up 3.1; the PE social inventory is 66.3 tons, down 11 [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 8650, up 450; the price of the 05 contract is 8303, up 106; the basis is 347, up 344; the warehouse receipt is 19667, down 142; the comprehensive PP factory warehouse inventory is 65.8 tons, up 0.3; the PP social inventory is 32.4 tons, down 21 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. The import dependence has generally decreased [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also changed over the years, and the import dependence has generally decreased [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-13燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：低硫方面，中东战争爆发时，市场最初预期高硫燃料油市场会比低硫燃料油受到更大影响。但随着运费飙 升关闭了来自欧洲地区的套利窗口，低硫燃料油供应短缺的担忧加剧；高硫方面，由于霍尔木兹海峡封锁限制了来自中 东地区的燃料油供应，也加剧了近期市场对供应中断的担忧；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油777.39美元/吨，基差为780元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为931.2美元/吨，基差为838元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油3月11日当周库存为2449.9万桶，减少125万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. After the holiday, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is generally weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is predicted that the urea market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. After the holiday, daily production is expected to remain high with the restart of some natural gas plants. The overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 12, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of phased agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, it is expected that the UR market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Positive Factors**: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1875 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 6380 | 947 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | - 15 | - 3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 0 | UR01 | 1857 | 2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 3881 | | UR05 | 1875 | 3 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1890 | 5 | | | | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 12, the four major A - share stock indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to 4129.1 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.63% to 14374.87 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.96% to 3317.52 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.24% to 1383.65 points. Market trading volume was 24,606 billion yuan, a decrease of 677 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, coal (+4.24%), public utilities (+1.89%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.32%) performed well; national defense and military industry (-2.33%), machinery and equipment (-1.86%), and communications (-1.53%) performed averagely. In terms of market strength, IM>IF>IH>IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,492/102/3,891 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 246, - 266, 108, and 404 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 197, - 122, +100, and +219 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 124.51, 103.07, 45.56, and 7.16 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.36%, - 11.86%, - 9.35%, and - 2.32% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 19%, 15%, 8%, and 30% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 12, treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.02%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.12% [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.011, and an IRR of 1.43%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.36%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.9bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.034, and an IRR of 1.34%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.054, and an IRR of 1.32% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 245 billion yuan and withdrew 230 billion yuan, with a net injection of 15 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [1]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [7]. - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year change of month - on - month), scores are given according to the degree of change. Positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a decline in prosperity, and a score of zero represents little change in prosperity [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view on methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is oscillating and strong. It is expected to run strongly [5]. - Although the US President Trump signaled a possible end to the war with Iran soon, the mutual attacks between the US - Israel and Iran may not end. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain, keeping international energy commodity futures prices strong, which boosts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices [5]. - In the short term, due to the continued geopolitical risks, the premium of methanol has increased again. However, the continued rise of methanol lacks fundamental support as domestic methanol production capacity is high, downstream demand is weak, external dependence is low, and port inventories are at a historically high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes and Fluctuation Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The slightly strong/slightly weak concept only applies to the intraday view, not for short - and medium - term views [3][4]. Methanol Market Analysis - The intraday view on methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is oscillating and strong. It is expected to run strongly on Friday [5]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East support international energy prices, boosting domestic energy - chemical futures prices, and increasing the premium of methanol in the short term [5]. - The continued rise of methanol lacks fundamental support as domestic production is high, demand is weak, external dependence is low, and port inventories are high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks, such as the US - Iran conflict, are having a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased price volatility and uncertainty [9][10][11][12]. - The domestic market shows certain resilience, but the equity market is still affected by global inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. The bond market may benefit from the expectation of future monetary easing [14][15]. - Different commodity sectors have different trends. For example, energy - related commodities are strongly affected by geopolitical factors, while some agricultural products are influenced by supply - demand relationships and seasonal factors [42][43][30][31]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress concluded, approving important reports and passing relevant laws [9]. - The US will launch trade investigations on 16 major trading partners, which may lead to new tariffs. China opposes such political manipulation, and the EU may respond firmly [9]. - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge and may take strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that some ships are allowed to pass through the strait [9]. - International oil prices soared on March 12. The US plans to issue a temporary exemption for the Jones Act to ease the fuel supply pressure. The US Energy Secretary said that the oil price is unlikely to rise to $200 [10]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic development [10]. - More than 10 trillion in inter - bank deposits may see an interest rate cut, and the market interest rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism requires banks to strengthen self - management [10]. - The Ministry of Justice will focus on optimizing the business environment and accelerating legislation in areas such as artificial intelligence and low - altitude economy [10]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption took joint action against a case of corruption and insider trading, with 8 people arrested [10]. - Baidu launched a mobile app, and Tencent is developing an independent AI model [11]. - There are risks in the application of OpenClaw, and the semiconductor industry is facing a new round of price increases [11]. - The US initial jobless claims decreased slightly, and the trade deficit narrowed in January. The IEA significantly lowered the global crude oil supply and demand growth expectations [11][12]. - Two foreign oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, and all Iraqi oil terminals suspended operations [12]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market fluctuated lower. The strategy is to focus on short - term risk defense. The domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas, but geopolitical risks may suppress market performance [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider waiting for the inflation expectation to ferment and then betting on future monetary easing. The priority of odds may be higher than the direction [15]. Black Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [15][16]. Ferroalloys - The absolute prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are relatively high. Short - term strategies are to short on rallies for manganese silicon and short in intraday trading for ferrosilicon, while being wary of unexpected price increases [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Due to geopolitical tensions, inflation pressure, and high inventory, copper prices will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and macro factors [20]. Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and the consumption end is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and an oscillatory and bearish approach is recommended [21][22]. Lead - Lead inventories are increasing. After taking profit on previous short positions, wait for the price to rise and then short again [23][25]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, but there is support in the medium - long term. Pay attention to buying opportunities during the correction [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate, and continue to pay attention to selling wide - straddle options. Polysilicon will oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical factors. It is expected to run strongly at a high level. Pay attention to the actual planting situation in Xinjiang [30][31]. Sugar - The sugar price may rebound with pressure and oscillate at a high level. There are differences in the prediction of global sugar supply, and the domestic sugar market has seasonal production pressure [32][33][34]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may rise in March, but the supply pressure is large. The futures market may enter a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [35][36][37]. Apples - High - quality apple sources may continue to be strong, and the futures market may also be strong. The market shows a structural differentiation pattern [38]. Corn - Be cautious about chasing high prices. Consider rolling 5 - 7 reverse spreads. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain releases [39]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the supply of crude oil is at risk. The market pricing may be insufficient, and oil prices have risen significantly [42][43]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil will follow the oil price and enter a high - level fluctuation. Focus on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [44]. Plastics - Due to the unstable situation in the Middle East, polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, and the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [44][45]. Rubber - Be cautious in taking unilateral positions. Pay attention to narrowing the price spreads and selling put options at low prices [46]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is mainly driven by the cost side and may maintain high volatility in the short term. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see [47]. Methanol - The short - term price is affected by geopolitical factors. If the war eases, the price may continue to correct. Long - term supply - demand conditions are expected to improve, but there is uncertainty [48]. Caustic Soda - The price is affected by supply - side production cuts and export increases, as well as insufficient domestic demand and high futures premiums. Pay attention to market rhythm [49]. Asphalt - The demand for asphalt is in the off - season, and the price follows the oil price. Focus on the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [50]. PVC - PVC may continue to be strong due to upstream production cuts. The key factor is the continuity and scope of upstream ethylene production cuts [50][51][52]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Keep a cautious and bullish attitude, and pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is under risk, but it is expected to remain strong, relatively weaker than crude oil [54]. Pulp - The market is in a state of long - short game. Pay attention to port inventory and product price increases. Consider buying at low prices or using accumulation - purchase strategies [55]. Logs - The demand is warming up, but there is inventory pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts and port inventory [55]. Urea - The urea futures market is highly emotional. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the Iran - US conflict, which has led to fluctuations in various asset prices. Different industries have different trends and investment strategies based on their own fundamentals and market sentiment [4][8][10] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, risk control is emphasized, and different investment strategies are proposed for different industries, such as short - term trading, hedging, and waiting for opportunities [4][10][53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: News includes Iran's stance on revenge and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fiber - optic cable product procurement issues, Fed rate - cut expectations, and Cambrian's financial results [2] - **Strategy**: Due to the Iran - US conflict affecting global risk appetite, it is recommended to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and control risks [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond prices showed small fluctuations. The US government's trade investigation and Iran's oil price remarks, along with central bank liquidity operations, were reported [5] - **Strategy**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8] 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices declined. US inflation data showed a certain trend, and there were relevant statements from Iran and the US government [9] - **Strategy**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Higher inflation expectations suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with reference price ranges provided [10] 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated due to the Middle East conflict. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the basis and spreads showed certain characteristics [12] - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price is expected to be in a shock state, with reference price ranges provided [13] 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong due to supply concerns. Inventory and basis changes were reported [14] - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with reference price ranges provided [15] 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Inventory and basis data were provided [16] - **Strategy**: The zinc industry is weak. There is a risk of the zinc price breaking downward, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [16] 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Inventory and basis data were provided [17] - **Strategy**: The lead market has poor consumption and inventory accumulation. There is a possibility of the lead price further declining [17] 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Cost and price data of nickel - related products were provided [19] - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, the nickel price center may rise. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges provided [20] 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply and demand were in a post - holiday transition period [18] - **Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [18] 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. Production and inventory data were provided [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Future factors such as downstream stocking and market atmosphere need to be concerned [21] 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices declined. Inventory and basis data were provided [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and potential driving factors need to be focused on [23] 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Inventory and basis data were provided [25] - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern, with a reference price range provided [25] 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose. Inventory and basis data were provided [26] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [27] 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fluctuated. Inventory and basis data were provided [29] - **Strategy**: The steel market is neutral - weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and future demand and raw material prices need to be concerned [30] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. Inventory and basis data were provided [31] - **Strategy**: The iron ore price is expected to be strong with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress and geopolitical situations [32] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices rose. Technical support and resistance levels were analyzed [33][34][35] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market sentiment is bullish, but there are still supply and demand constraints. In the long - term, the coking coal price is expected to be optimistic [36][37] 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices rose. Inventory and basis data were provided [38][40] - **Strategy**: Glass demand has improved slightly, and soda ash is mainly driven by cost. Reference price ranges are provided [39][41] 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Technical analysis was provided [42] - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is bullish. The future market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors [43][44] 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices rose. Supply and demand data were provided [45][47] - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate or rebound, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate [46][48] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has different views on supply and demand. Tire enterprise operating rates and inventory data were provided [50][51] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade flexibly and set stop - losses. A hedging strategy is provided [53] 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices rose. US inventory data were provided [54][55] - **Strategy**: Several trading strategies are proposed, including short - selling and spread trading [56] 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. MTO profit data were provided [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Regional price and basis data were provided [59] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and pay attention to short - term demand changes [60] 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose. Supply, demand, and cost data were provided [61][62] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [63] 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [64] - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a rebound. Attention should be paid to risks [65] 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [66] - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [67] 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and cost data were provided [68] - **Strategy**: It is necessary to observe the subsequent maintenance situation. There is room for valuation to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69] 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and cost data were provided [70] - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. There is room for valuation to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [71] 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell the spread between different contracts when the shipping situation improves [73] 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74] - **Strategy**: The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production and demand mismatches [75] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply and demand situations were analyzed [77] - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price is expected to be weak and stable. Different trading strategies are proposed for the near - term and far - term [79] 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were generally stable. Supply and demand situations were analyzed [80] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply is high. Different trading strategies are proposed for the near - term and far - term [81] 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data were provided [82] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to price fluctuations [83] 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data were provided [84] - **Strategy**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the medium - term is bullish [85] 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Global and regional sugar production and supply data were provided [86] - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips [87][88] 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Global and US cotton production, export, and inventory data were provided [89] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream starts up well [90]