2月9日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约 报136780.0元/吨，涨幅3.39%。 现货方面，2月9日，优质碳酸锂市场价格区间在135600-139200元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调3950 元，电池级碳酸锂市场价格区间在134200-139200元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调4200元，工业级碳酸 锂市场价格区间在131500-136500元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调4500元。 后市来看，东海期货表示，社会库存持续去库，强现实维持，但春节前备货需求有较大程度释放，对节 前行情支撑减弱。预计碳酸锂震荡调整，耐心等待企稳后逢低布局，或期权双卖策略。 供应方面，银河期货指出，今年2月份，锂盐厂开始检修，产量有所下滑。截至2月6日当周，碳酸锂周 度产量为20744吨，环比减少825吨；碳酸锂周度库存为105463吨，环比去库2019吨。 需求方面，南华期货（603093）分析称，下游材料厂报价整体下跌，其中磷酸铁锂系报价变 动-11.97%，三元材料系报价变动-3.69%，六氟磷酸锂报价变动-11.58%，电解液报价变动-5.84%。终端 电芯市场报价+0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for the chemical sector, particularly urea, is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract rising by 1.18% to 1797.00 yuan/ton as of February 9 [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, as of February 9, Shandong Ruixing's small granular urea price has been raised to 1780 yuan/ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation; Shandong Alliance's small granular urea is quoted between 1770-1800 yuan/ton, with actual transactions varying by region [2] - On the supply side, East China Futures analysis indicates that daily production has increased, leading to sustained pressure, while overall demand support is insufficient due to reduced compound fertilizer operations and weak expectations, alongside a lackluster export market and limited port demand [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, representing a 2.79% decline; the port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons, marking a 14.58% rise [2] - Looking ahead, Wukuang Futures believes that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, combined with expectations of improved operations at the end of January, indicating that bearish expectations for urea's fundamentals are approaching, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rallies [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk point is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - The inventory of palm oil ports on January 9 was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - There are also contents about soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic oil and fat inventory, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [8][10][21][23]. Demand - There are contents about the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [12][14]. Price Expectations - The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3]. - The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4]. Other Factors - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is the right time to adopt the long straddle strategy for CSI 300 index options as the PCR of open interest and the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options have both fallen to relatively low historical quantile levels. Although the short - term stock market risk appetite has been negatively disturbed, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the expectation of consumption recovery is rising, and the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of CSI 300 Index - Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has shown a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 4836.95 points, presenting a range - bound market. Compared with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, the CSI 300 index has been relatively stable. However, since January 26, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly corrected, while the CSI 300 index has remained relatively robust, indicating a possible shift in market style [2] 3.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Open Interest PCR - As of February 4, the open interest PCR of CSI 300 index options was 63.47%, at the 43.8% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously declining since January 8. This indicates that investors' risk preference has weakened marginally, and the current low level implies a possibility of bottom - out recovery [3] 3.3 Analysis from the Perspective of Implied Volatility - As of February 4, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 14.79%, at the 39.9% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously decreasing since January 7. The current low level is more favorable for option buyers [4] 3.4 Analysis of the Direction of the Underlying Index 3.4.1 Macro - fundamental Aspect - The problem of insufficient effective demand still exists. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the contraction range. The new order index declined more than the production index, indicating that the demand side is the main drag. The price scissors - gap dilemma has been alleviated to some extent, and there is an obvious differentiation in the economic prosperity among enterprises [9] 3.4.2 Policy Aspect - Policy needs to stabilize domestic demand at the overall level and support technology and consumption at the structural level. Stabilizing domestic demand is a short - term measure to stabilize growth, while structural support for technology and consumption aims at long - term kinetic energy transformation [12] 3.4.3 Market Style and Capital Flow - Since the beginning of the year, stocks related to strategic emerging industries and future industries mentioned in the "15th Five - Year Plan" have been favored by funds, and the valuations of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly increased. However, with the regulatory signal of de - leveraging and risk control, the market driven by valuation has ended. As the Spring Festival approaches, the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" due to consumption recovery expectations. Since mid - January, the inflow of margin trading funds into the stock market has slowed down [13][14] 3.4.4 External Factors - The news about the next Fed chairman at the end of January and early February has caused market volatility, and the stock market has been under pressure. However, this is mainly a short - term disturbance, and the stock market logic will eventually return to its fundamentals [17] 3.5 Conclusion and Operation Ideas - It is advisable to choose the long straddle strategy to layout the Spring Festival market. This strategy involves buying the same number of call and put options with the same expiration month and strike price. It can profit whether the market breaks upward as expected or experiences an unexpected downward risk, and can control the risk exposure [18]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 本周开盘，A股市场主要指数显著上扬，成功收复4100点整数关口。股指期货市场同样表现强劲，截至 今日早盘10时50分，四大股指期货主力合约涨幅均超过1%，呈现普涨格局。 近期逻辑： 外围市场的回暖为A股提供了积极的开局环境，尤其是美股道指历史性突破5万点大关，显著提振了全 球市场的风险偏好。与此同时，市场内部也显现出一些积极迹象，例如部分宽基ETF在盘初出现资金流 入，这对稳定市场情绪起到了关键作用。 除了外部因素，地缘政治层面的积极信号也为市场注入了信心。近期中美高层对话释放出关系缓和的明 确信号，双方均表现出以务实合作推动经济发展的共同意愿。大国关系的这一积极动向，有助于缓解外 部不确定性，改善全球经济增长预期，从而对A股市场情绪产生带动。 此外，随着春节临近，市场对传统的"红包行情"有所期待，近十年节前上涨概率较高的统计规律，也一 定程度上增强了投资者的乐观情绪。 综合来看，今天的反弹更像是市场情绪在经历前期调整后的一次集中修复。 分析师观点： 今日，中证1000股指期货主力合约呈现技术性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-09燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：贸易商称，尽管下游加油活动活跃，尤其是在农历新年前夕，但亚洲低硫燃料油市场仍受到近期充足 的套利供应压制，美伊谈判开局较为良好，暂未增加地缘担忧，预计燃油价格短期震荡运行，等待更多地缘信号 出现。FU2603：2750-2810区间运行，LU2603：3220-3280区间运行 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱，主要受即期供应充足影响。与此同时，含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价 差连续第二个交易日维持负值不变，原因是货物需求疲软；新加坡高硫燃料油的需求通常从3月开始回升，以满 足南亚夏季发电高峰的 ...

首席点评：央行继续增持黄金 2 月 7 日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月末， 中国黄金储备为 7419 万盎司(约 2307.57 吨)，较 2025 年 12 月末的 7415 万盎 司(约 2306.32 吨)增加 4 万盎司(1.24 吨)，为连续第 15 个月增持黄金。央行 15 个月共增持黄金 139 万盎司(约 43.23 吨)。其中，2025 年全年，中国黄金储备 增加了 86 万盎司(约 26.75 吨)。美国上周初请失业金人数录得 23.1 万人，预估 21.2 万人，前值 20.9 万人。美国 1 月 24 日当周持续申领失业救济人数为 184.4 万人，预估 185 万人，失业数据上升显示经济放缓风险增加，可能减少能源需求， 对液化石油气现货价格构成利空。2 月 6 日周五举行的伊美谈判因双方在关于谈 判内容是否只聚焦核问题方面存在分歧，伊朗问题反复，油价受消息面影响波动。 美国政府正准备发布一项通用许可证，允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油，委内瑞拉 原油产量存增长预期。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：贵金属有所反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the nomination of the new Fed Chair and the release of Q4 earnings of large US tech companies, overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives have fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the money market remained balanced and loose. The bond market strengthened this week, and futures bond prices generally rose [6]. - In the future, the decline in the profit - making effect of risk assets and the approach of the Spring Festival may bring incremental funds to the bond market. The probability of the 10Y Treasury yield breaking below 1.8% is increasing. However, the short - term yield decline may be limited due to weak policy rate cut expectations, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious as the second - hand housing market in core cities shows signs of stabilization and important meetings are approaching after the Spring Festival [6]. - The short - term risk - off does not mean a fundamental reversal of the optimistic macro - narrative, and the de - leveraging of risk assets does not mean a complete reversal of their trends [6]. 3. Summary According to Different Sections 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Market risk appetite decline**: The nomination of the new Fed Chair and Q4 earnings of large US tech companies caused fluctuations in overseas policy easing and AI industry expansion narratives. This led to increased volatility in global risk asset prices, which spread to the domestic market. The decline in risk - asset profit - making effect and risk appetite was beneficial to the bond market, driving the bond market to strengthen this week [16]. - **Stable cross - festival funds**: Next week, government bond issuance and payment will increase to 6436.87 million yuan. With the approaching Spring Festival, cross - festival fund prices are expected to converge. However, the central bank's clear attitude to protect liquidity may limit the actual fluctuation of fund prices [18]. - **Partial recovery of the second - hand housing market**: Recently, the second - hand housing market in some core cities has shown signs of marginal stabilization, especially in first - tier cities where the second - hand housing listing price index has risen for three consecutive weeks since mid - January. This may be due to the introduction of local housing purchase policies and the market's need for stabilization after a rapid price decline in Q4 last year. However, the sustainability of the recovery needs further observation [29][31]. - **Low valuation of futures bond market**: As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3104%, 1.4461%, 1.3764%, and 1.3644% respectively. Compared with spot bonds, the futures bond market valuation was mostly at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [36]. - **Slow progress of main contract roll - over**: The roll - over of main contracts accelerated this week but was still slower than the historical average. As of Friday, the roll - over progress of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 22.0%, 34.7%, 24.6%, and 35.3% respectively [37]. - **Net short - position dominance in the top ten futures seats**: During the rise of futures prices this week, the net long - position ratio of the top ten seats decreased. As of Friday, the net position ratios of TS, TF, T, and TL top ten seats were - 21.38%, - 6.99%, - 4.58%, and - 3.30% respectively. With low contract valuation, slow roll - over, net short - position dominance, and no significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations, the inter - delivery spread may strengthen periodically [44]. - **High spread between new and old ultra - long bonds**: The spread between new and old 30Y bonds widened significantly this week and then narrowed. As of Friday, the spreads between the CTD bonds of TL current and next - season contracts and active bonds were 7.71bp and 7.10bp respectively. It is recommended to short the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds. However, significant spread narrowing may require the elimination of negative factors such as government bond supply, and the next - season TL contract may be a better choice for arbitrage positions [47]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side strategy**: Partially take profits on long TL positions and hold the remaining lightly [7][8]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay appropriate attention to going long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread and shorting the spread between new and old ultra - long bonds using futures bonds [7][8]. 3.2 Second Part: Related Data Tracking - **Bond futures contract spreads**: Data on spreads between TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, showing historical trends [52]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: Data on trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Spot bond yields and spreads**: Information on Treasury bond yield curves, term spreads, spreads between Treasury and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury and CDB bonds are given [58]. - **US Treasury yields and exchange rates**: Data on US 10 - year Treasury yields, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury yield spreads, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]