Market Overview - On June 10, the Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 19 points or 0.1%, closing at 24,162 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.8%, ending at 5,392 points[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 250.3 billion, with the top two ETFs, the Tracker Fund and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF, recording turnover of HKD 16.5 billion and HKD 14.0 billion respectively[1] - Net inflow through the Stock Connect was HKD 7.59 billion[1] Sector Performance - Sub-sectors such as banking, insurance, power, biomedicine, materials, and transportation showed positive performance[1] - Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank reached new highs since their listings[1] - Biomedicine stocks like Lepu Biopharma, CanSino Biologics, and 3SBio saw increases ranging from 9.8% to 15.5%[1] Valuation Insights - The current AH premium index has dropped to 130.5, indicating a low level within the past three years[2] - After accounting for a 20% dividend tax on H-shares, the adjusted AH premium index is approximately 125, suggesting limited upside for H-shares[2] - The Hang Seng Index's risk premium is nearing two standard deviations below its rolling two-year average, indicating insufficient market risk compensation[2] Economic Context - The economic fundamentals remain in a weak recovery phase, with ongoing downward pressure on prices and unstable corporate profit recovery[2] - If the Hong Kong dollar approaches the weak side of the peg, the Monetary Authority may withdraw liquidity, potentially raising funding costs[2] Real Estate Market Trends - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities fell to 1.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 18.1%[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 85.4, up from 83.6 a year ago[7] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped by 48.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in the real estate market[8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on state-owned developers for stability in the real estate sector, given the underperformance of Hong Kong-listed property stocks[11] - Monitor high-growth potential sectors such as consumer electronics and AI, which may benefit from reduced external risks[13]

Group 1 - The article highlights the paradox of high savings and low consumption in China, which is becoming a key bottleneck for economic development [1][3] - China's economic growth over the past two decades has relied heavily on foreign trade and real estate investment, both of which are now facing significant challenges [3][4] - Despite the People's Bank of China's efforts to stimulate consumption through monetary policy, the reality is that liquidity is not translating into consumer spending [4][10] Group 2 - The article contrasts the consumption patterns of the U.S. and China, noting that the U.S. has a highly developed credit system that encourages borrowing and spending [5][6] - In 2024, U.S. personal consumption expenditure reached $20.4 trillion, accounting for 70% of GDP, showcasing a stark difference in consumption behavior compared to China [5][6] - The U.S. government provided direct cash assistance during the pandemic, which helped maintain consumer spending and savings among low-income groups [6][7] Group 3 - China's low consumer willingness is attributed to three structural constraints: weakened expectations, high debt burdens, and mismatched supply [9][10] - As of the end of 2024, China's household leverage ratio reached 63%, indicating that a significant portion of income is allocated to debt repayment, limiting discretionary spending [9][10] - The retail sales growth in 2024 was 4.6%, primarily driven by high-end consumption, while ordinary consumers' demand for upgrades remains unmet [10] Group 4 - To address the consumption dilemma, the article suggests creating a supportive institutional environment that encourages spending [12][15] - Recommendations include improving the social safety net, optimizing income distribution, innovating consumption scenarios, and enhancing the consumer environment [12][13][14] - The transition from a production-oriented society to a consumption-oriented society is a significant challenge for China, requiring deep structural changes [15]

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Brinson Attribution Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is used to decompose the excess returns of active equity funds into stock selection and sector allocation contributions, providing insights into the sources of fund performance [16][19][22] - **Model Construction Process**: The Brinson model calculates excess returns as follows: $ R_{excess} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} (W_{i,f} - W_{i,b}) \cdot R_{i,b} + \sum_{i=1}^{n} W_{i,f} \cdot (R_{i,f} - R_{i,b}) $ - $ W_{i,f} $: Fund weight in sector $ i $ - $ W_{i,b} $: Benchmark weight in sector $ i $ - $ R_{i,f} $: Fund return in sector $ i $ - $ R_{i,b} $: Benchmark return in sector $ i $ The first term represents the allocation effect, and the second term represents the selection effect [16][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights that stock selection contributes more significantly to excess returns than sector allocation, with stock selection accounting for 83.17% of the total contribution on average [16][22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Brinson Attribution Model - Average stock selection contribution: 5.38% per half-year [22] - Probability of positive stock selection returns: 69.12% [23] - Probability of positive sector allocation returns: 53.66% [23] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Fund Stability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the stability of a fund's sector allocation and its impact on outperforming benchmarks [10][12] - **Factor Construction Process**: Funds are categorized into 16 groups based on static and dynamic sector allocation characteristics: - Static categories: Highly diversified, diversified, concentrated, highly concentrated - Dynamic categories: Highly stable, stable, rotational, highly rotational The average probability of outperforming benchmarks is calculated for each group [10][12] - **Factor Evaluation**: Funds with highly stable and diversified sector allocations have the highest probability of outperforming benchmarks, exceeding 73% on average [12][14] 2. Factor Name: Style Consistency Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the consistency of a fund's style (e.g., large-cap value) and its correlation with performance [27][30] - **Factor Construction Process**: Funds are classified based on their style consistency over time: - Long-term stable allocation - Majority-time allocation - Partial-time allocation - Rare-time allocation The probability of outperforming benchmarks is calculated for each group [27][28] - **Factor Evaluation**: Funds with long-term stable large-cap value styles have the highest probability of outperforming benchmarks, reaching 79.77% [28][30] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Fund Stability Factor - Highly diversified-highly stable funds: - Probability of outperforming benchmark: 73.12% - Probability of outperforming benchmark +10%: 57.29% [12] 2. Style Consistency Factor - Long-term stable large-cap value funds: - Probability of outperforming benchmark: 79.77% - Probability of outperforming benchmark +10%: 69.05% [28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) with a target price of HKD 29.30 [6][8]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharmaceutical has successfully entered into an overseas licensing agreement with Regeneron, which includes an upfront payment of USD 80 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.93 billion, along with royalties on sales [6][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the new consumption stocks, particularly the significant price increases of companies like Blok (325 HK) and the mixed performance of Gu Ming (1364 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][4]. - The healthcare sector, particularly the biotech companies, has shown robust growth, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 4.8%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [4]. Summary by Sections Macro Dynamics - The new housing transaction volume in major cities has seen a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, indicating a weakening real estate market [2]. Industry Dynamics - The new consumption sector has been positively impacted by the inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with notable stock price increases [3]. - The AI sector is gaining traction, with Fourth Paradigm (682 HK) seeing a 9.7% increase due to positive quarterly results and new AI solutions for the healthcare industry [3]. Healthcare Sector - The healthcare index has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains from companies like Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) and others, driven by new drug approvals and clinical trial successes [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential of Hansoh Pharmaceutical's new drug HS-20094, which has completed several Phase II clinical trials and is recognized for its quality by Regeneron [6][8]. Energy Sector - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the new energy sector, with mixed performances observed in solar stocks and a positive outlook for coal-fired power generation due to low coal prices [10][11]. - The nuclear energy sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for uranium, driven by U.S. initiatives to boost domestic nuclear energy production [13][15].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI fell by 0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.1%[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of 2.7%[2] - Energy prices, particularly crude oil, significantly impacted the PPI, with oil extraction prices down by 5.6% and refined oil product prices down by 3.5%[3] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.1%, indicating weak demand and limited PPI improvement potential[2] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 5.9% and 0.7%, respectively[6] - Non-food prices also decreased by 0.2%, influenced by a 3.8% drop in gasoline prices[7] - Hotel accommodation and travel prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with hotel prices reaching a ten-year high for this period[6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall supply of pork is expected to remain sufficient in June, with demand still in a seasonal lull[10] - The global grain production forecast for 2025/2026 is expected to reach a record high, stabilizing food prices[27] - Consumer confidence remains cautious, impacting spending and limiting core CPI recovery potential[25]

Group 1 - Three new consumer concept stocks, Bruker (00325.HK), Gu Ming (01364.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK), have been added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, effective from June 9 [1][2] - Following the announcement, Bruker saw an increase of 18.35% to HKD 187 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 46.61 billion; Mixue Group rose by 6.80% to HKD 573 per share, with a market cap of HKD 217.52 billion; Gu Ming increased by 2.64% to HKD 27.20 per share, with a market cap of HKD 64.69 billion [1] - The three companies have shown significant cumulative growth since their listings this year, with Bruker up over 200%, Mixue Group up over 180%, and Gu Ming up over 170% [1] Group 2 - New consumer stocks are considered a rare category among large consumers, characterized by high growth, strong cash flow, and broad market potential, making them attractive to institutional investors [3] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential selling pressure from cornerstone investors or major shareholders in the coming months, as well as high valuations compared to larger consumer categories [3] - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience a peak in lock-up expirations from June to September 2025, with significant amounts of capital being released, which could impact stock prices [3] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding new consumer stocks, with some analysts expressing concerns about overvaluation and potential bubbles in the sector [4][5] - UBS downgraded Mixue Group from "Neutral" to "Sell," citing high valuations and challenges in overseas business, while domestic brokerages remain optimistic about the company's growth potential [5] - Morgan Stanley expressed confidence in the IP industry in China, highlighting companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Huang Jin as top picks, indicating a positive outlook for the new consumer sector [5][6] Group 4 - The IP product category is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% in sales and profits over the next three years, contrasting with traditional companies that may only see single-digit growth [6] - Analysts recommend a strategic approach to investing in Hong Kong's technology and new consumer sectors, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between genuine growth and speculative trading [6]

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 924后的 " 分手 " 上半年的股市可谓有惊无险 ， 赚钱机会多多 ， 但隔壁的商品市场就是完全两样的风景 ， 大部 分工业品都是 " 一路南下派 " ， 几乎被空头力量主导 ， 偶尔借停产检修或宏观利好反弹一把 ， 也成为 " 每涨卖机 " 。 国内上市的67个商品期货品种中 ， 主力合约价格年初以来下跌的有39个 ， 看上去没有那么惨 ？ 你再看上涨的28个品种中 ， 几乎都是金银和农产品 ， 工业品只有铜 、 铝 、 锡三个国际定 价的有色品种和尿素这个严格出口管制的农化产品 。 像焦煤 、 玻璃 、 甲醇 、 塑料 、 橡胶 、 纯碱 、 螺纹钢这一类重要的大宗商品 ， 都是跌幅巨大 。 上半年这一轮工业品的下跌 ， 实际上是在延续21年以来的商品熊市 ： 焦煤主力合约上半年跌了34% ， 从21年最高点跌了80% ； 玻璃主力合约上半年跌了25% ， 从21年最高点跌了68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance today, particularly with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) rising nearly 3% and achieving a trading volume of 758 million yuan, which is a 92.72% increase compared to the same time yesterday [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) experienced a trading volume increase of 22.02% over the past month, adding 556 million units [1] - Other related ETFs also showed positive performance: - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) increased by 1.22% - Hong Kong Automotive ETF (159210) rose by 0.1% - Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) gained 2.42% - Hong Kong Technology ETF (513560) saw an increase of 1.53% [1]

Core Views - The market is expected to remain in a "top and bottom" scenario, with attention on the upcoming Lujiazui Forum and FOMC meeting for further guidance [2][3] - The recent trading volume of micro-cap stocks is approaching levels seen in November 2023, indicating a crowded market, but the odds of participating in small-cap trends are currently low [2][5] - With the current trading volume not significantly increasing, the speed of sector rotation may remain rapid, with themes like innovative drugs and new consumption already fully played out [2][4] Market Dynamics - The short-term market lacks clear upward momentum, with increased divergence near key levels, but strong support exists at the market bottom [3] - Structural pressures on the macro economy persist, with manufacturing and domestic demand needing improvement, with potential for trend improvement in the second half of the year [3] - The financing balance remains stable at around 1.8 trillion, indicating a baseline scenario of stock game [3] Sector Rotation Opportunities - Recent adjustments in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors suggest a need for investors to reassess their positions [4] - The current internal rotation within innovative drugs and new consumption is relatively sufficient, with a decline in cost-effectiveness [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume has dropped to a low since 2023, presenting potential excess return opportunities in low-positioned technology sectors with industrial catalysts [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of "odds thinking" in investment strategy, suggesting a focus on relatively low-crowded technology sectors such as AI computing chips, storage chips, optical fibers, and smart driving [6] - Mid-term focus should be on core assets represented by A50, consumption, and finance, especially considering the potential for RMB appreciation due to "de-dollarization" [6]