Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday fundamental driving force of rubber is relatively limited, and the market performance follows external macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the intensification of Sino - US game on the macro - level, the supply - side support weakens, terminal consumption is average, and natural rubber inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][9][84]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 ranged from 15,150 to 15,480 yuan/ton, with an overall slight increase. As of the close on October 10, 2025, it closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, up 285 points or 1.9% for the week [14]. Spot Price - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from September 30; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from September 30; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from September 30 [18]. - As of October 10, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,120 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 30 [21]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with September 30. As of October 10, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 665 yuan/ton, narrowing 65 yuan/ton from September 30 [25]. - As of October 10, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased significantly during the week [27]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On October 9, Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement; on October 5, eight foreign ministers welcomed Hamas' measures on the "20 - point plan" for a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip [28]. - US domestic politics: The Trump administration is using the government shutdown crisis to promote the second - round large - scale federal employee reduction plan, which may lead to a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of this year. The Fed faces greater pressure to cut interest rates due to the delay in key employment and inflation data [28]. - Tariff policy: Starting from November 1, 2025, the US will impose a 25% tariff on all medium - and heavy - duty trucks imported from other countries and regions [28]. - Fed policy: The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many were cautious due to inflation concerns. New York Fed President Williams supported further rate cuts, while Fed Governor Barr advocated caution [29]. - Global economy: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium term, lower than 3.7% before the COVID - 19 pandemic. By 2029, global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP [29]. - Global manufacturing: In September, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for seven consecutive months. The average value in the third quarter was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter [30]. - Chinese economy: From January to August this year, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [31]. - Real estate: In September, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in China increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of top 100 real estate enterprises in September was 252.78 billion yuan, up 22.1% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year [31]. - Automobile industry: In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. The retail sales of the passenger vehicle market were 2.239 million, up 6% year - on - year and 11% month - on - month. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million, up 16% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.5% [32]. - Logistics industry: In September, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [32]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production in major producing countries: As of August 31, 2025, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, up 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly lower growth rate [40]. - Synthetic rubber production in China: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 740,000 tons, up 7.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, up 10.9% year - on - year [44][48]. - Import of new pneumatic rubber tires in China: As of August 31, 2025, the import volume was 9,300 tons, down 10.58% month - on - month [51]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise开工率: As of October 9, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 46.51%, down 27.07% from September 25; the开工 rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 43.96%, down 21.76% from September 25 [53]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million, up 13% year - on - year and 8.7% month - on - month; monthly sales were 2.857 million, up 16.4% year - on - year and 10.1% month - on - month [56][59]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 91,619, up 46.71% year - on - year and 7.93% month - on - month [65]. - Tire production: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million, up 1.5% year - on - year [68]. - Tire export: As of August 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 63.01 million, down 5.46% month - on - month [74]. Inventory - side Situation - Futures inventory: As of October 10, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 144,390 tons, down 5,420 tons from September 30 [81]. - Social inventory: As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, down 15,000 tons or 1.4% month - on - month. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 661,000 tons, down 0.87%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 427,000 tons, down 2.2% month - on - month [81]. - Qingdao inventory: As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 456,500 tons, down 4,700 tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 69,400 tons, remaining flat; the general - trade inventory was 387,100 tons, down 1.18% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main producing areas have provided some cost - side support, but as the weather impact weakens, there is a strong expectation of increased supply, and the supply support weakens. In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, up 9.68% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [82]. - Demand: During the National Day holiday, some tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 - day holiday. Last week, the tire enterprise开工率 decreased significantly compared with September 25. The all - steel tire inventory continued to rebound, and the semi - steel tire inventory decreased marginally. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In August, China's heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [82]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly compared with September 30; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline month - on - month [82]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - Viewpoint: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [85]. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see for the time being and focus on the inventory accumulation situation; for options, wait and see for the time being [86].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [4]. Core Views - For natural rubber, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, production is gradually increasing, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although the raw material prices in Thailand remain firm, the supply is expected to increase due to the peak season and reduced rainfall. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall supply - demand situation in China is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again [3]. - For butadiene rubber, there are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber plants in October, with a similar scale to September, providing support on the supply side. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level year - on - year, and the supply remains abundant. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply and demand of butadiene rubber will be strong [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread - The spread data includes the prices of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, BR rubber, and various rubber products, as well as the basis of NR, RU, BR, and differences between different rubber types and products [1][7][8]. 2. Supply Data - In terms of natural rubber, the inventory inflow rate at Qingdao Port is 10.56% (+2.06%), with the general trade inventory inflow rate at 11.61% (+1.99%) and the bonded warehouse inventory inflow rate at 4.62% (+2.15%). The output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 29,990 tons, and the operating rate is 74.69% (+4.15%). There are also data on natural rubber production in China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as China's natural rubber imports [1][7][8]. - Regarding production profit, the production profit of Thai STR20 is - 186.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of Thai RSS3 is 2,847.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 364 yuan/ton (-300), and the production profit of butadiene by carbon - four extraction method is 1,765.83 yuan/ton (-39.83) [2]. 3. Demand Data - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 42.15% (-18%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 39.87 days (+0.36), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires are 45.70 days (-0.23). There are also data on the production of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, the export volume of motor vehicle pneumatic tires in China, and the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, rubber tubes, and conveyor belts [2][8]. 4. Inventory Data - The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory is 41,329 tons (-705). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 27,750 tons (+0), the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises is 26,600 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 5,700 tons (+0) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The global ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR) industry is experiencing rapid growth due to advancements in production technology and increasing market demand, with a total production capacity of approximately 2 million tons per year by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The global EPR production capacity is projected to reach around 2 million tons per year by the end of 2024, with China's capacity stable at 395,000 tons [1]. - In 2024, China's EPR production is expected to be 309,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while apparent consumption is projected at 443,300 tons, up 10.5% [1][12]. - The domestic EPR market is shifting focus from capacity expansion to optimizing production processes to enhance product quality and operational efficiency [1][12]. Group 2: Import and Export Trends - China's EPR import volume is expected to reach 168,400 tons by 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while export volume is projected at 34,500 tons, up 3.6% [1][12]. Group 3: Market Size and Pricing - The market size of China's EPR industry is anticipated to be 10.912 billion yuan in 2024, with an average price of approximately 24,614 yuan per ton [2][14]. Group 4: Production Technology - The main production methods for EPR include solution polymerization, suspension polymerization, and gas-phase polymerization, with solution polymerization accounting for about 80% of global production capacity [6][7]. Group 5: Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream of the EPR industry includes key raw materials such as ethylene, propylene, catalysts, and solvents, while the downstream applications span automotive, construction, and electrical industries [8][10]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The domestic EPR market is characterized by five major producers, maintaining a stable total capacity of 395,000 tons per year, with significant price control capabilities [17][18].

Market Overview - On October 10, the rubber sector experienced a slight decline of 0.07%, with Tian Tie Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Haida Co., Ltd. (300320) with a closing price of 10.34, up 2.48% on a trading volume of 159,500 shares and a turnover of 164 million yuan [1] - Quecheng Co., Ltd. (605183) with a closing price of 20.70, up 2.42% on a trading volume of 35,300 shares and a turnover of 72.75 million yuan [1] - Longxing Technology (002442) with a closing price of 6.39, up 1.91% on a trading volume of 71,100 shares and a turnover of 45.16 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 50.51 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 67.47 million yuan, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 16.96 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant fund flow included: - Kexin Innovation Source (300731) with a main fund net inflow of 20.52 million yuan, but a retail net outflow of 31.99 million yuan [3] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) with a main fund net inflow of 18.33 million yuan and a retail net outflow of 33.90 million yuan [3] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) with a main fund net inflow of 1.81 million yuan, but a significant speculative fund outflow of 26.84 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an increase in copper inventory by 14,656 tons this week [1] - Aluminum inventory rose by 1,180 tons, while zinc inventory increased by 8,940 tons [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 1,978 tons, and nickel inventory saw an increase of 3,604 tons [1] Group 2 - Tin inventory decreased by 550 tons, and natural rubber inventory fell by 3,729 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a rebound after over - decline, but the futures price was under the reverse suppression of the 5 - day moving average, and the short - and medium - term moving averages showed an obvious short - selling trend. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber will continue to run weakly in the future. The bullish expectations at the industrial level are difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment, and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of US Government Shutdown - Due to the failure of the US Senate to pass a new temporary appropriation bill on October 6, the US government shutdown continued. The 35 - day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 caused a loss of $3 billion to GDP. It is estimated that each week of the current shutdown will reduce the economic growth rate by about 0.15 percentage points, and may reduce it by 0.2 percentage points when the impact on private institutions is included. The shutdown has a major impact on the economy and demand, and drags down the price trend of commodities, which also has a negative impact on Shanghai rubber futures [2] Supply and Demand in the Rubber Market - **Supply**: Currently, both domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are in the peak tapping season, especially the Southeast Asian main producing areas. The supply pressure is steadily increasing. In August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons. From January to August, the total rubber production reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons, or 0.96%. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, had a total rubber production of 2.8158 million tons in the first 8 months of this year, a year - on - year increase of 81,900 tons, or 3.00%. Its total export volume from January to August was 2.7569 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,600 tons, or 7.85% [4][6] - **Demand**: Affected by the slowdown of the world economic growth due to the global tariff war, the rubber consumption market has cooled down. In August, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons, or 4.68%. From January to August, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 267,600 tons, or 3.60%. Overall, the rubber market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8] Impact of Typhoon "Maideme" - Typhoon "Maideme" landed and hit the northern part of Hainan Province and the southwestern part of Guangdong Province in China, which are important rubber - planting areas. It may bring a production reduction expectation, which in turn supports the stabilization of the Shanghai rubber futures price. However, the bullish expectation at the industrial level is difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow. For BR, although there are still device overhauls in October, the overall supply remains abundant. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of BR, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,325 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August 2025 and an 82% increase from the 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Rubber Imports - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 4.73% increase from the previous month and a 7.79% increase year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 5.373 million tons, a 19.06% cumulative increase year - on - year [2] Tire Exports - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a 4.8% increase year - on - year; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year - on - year. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 47.86 billion pieces, a 5.6% increase year - on - year [2] Automobile Production, Sales and Exports - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% increase year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% increase year - on - year [3] Rubber Exports from Cote d'Ivoire - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the RU basis was - 715 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 565 yuan/ton (+ 135), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,969 yuan/ton (+ 329.89), the NR basis was 760.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 40), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (+ 250); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.47 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.47), the price of Thai glue was 53.90 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.45) [4][5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,810 tons (+ 390), and the NR futures inventory was 42,034 tons (- 908) [6] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 175), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,773 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.95% (+ 2.90%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (unchanged), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (unchanged) [6] Strategy - **Natural Rubber (RU and NR)**: Maintain a neutral view. After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [7] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: Maintain a neutral view. There are still device overhauls for the upstream of butadiene rubber in October, and the output may be the same as in September. However, the overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the abundant supply situation remains unchanged. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of butadiene rubber, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7]