Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global market risk aversion has decreased, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment supported by liquidity and a slowdown in trade war tensions [1] - Domestic consumption has improved due to the boost from the May Day holiday, indicating a continuous enhancement in internal demand [1] - The AI sector is experiencing accelerated development, with breakthroughs in multi-modal iterations and scenario-based applications [1] Group 2 - The first quarter reports of A-share listed companies have concluded, showing improvements in profit margins and structural differentiation in industry revenue growth [1] - Looking ahead to May, the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with short-term risk preferences likely to improve marginally, potentially shifting market focus towards growth sectors [1] - Key industries to watch include electronics, machinery, computers, automobiles, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - The economic landscape is anticipated to face new variables by the end of Q2, particularly in the context of Sino-US economic relations [1] - Three major trends are highlighted: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate domestic demand through the "dual circulation" strategy [1] Group 2 - Short-term factors affecting A-shares include the resolution of negative Q1 reports, the TMT sector reaching a lower response model, and ongoing advancements in AI applications by major domestic and international companies [2] - In the medium term, a focus on neutral dividend combinations is recommended until significant rebounds in real estate or technological applications occur [2] - The current market is likely to favor a rotation and thematic investment approach due to uncertainties in reported earnings across various listed companies [2] Group 3 - The end of the performance verification period is expected to enhance the outlook for technology stocks, with a high probability of a short-term rebound led by the tech sector [3] - Consumption and technology are both seen as areas where expectations for growth are strengthening, with a current high profitability effect in consumption and a relatively low position in technology [3] - The report indicates a preference for investment opportunities in AI computing and embodied intelligence in the medium term [3] Group 4 - Despite ongoing trade tensions, Chinese assets are viewed as having better value, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as tourism, food, and retail [4] - Recommendations include resource products and capital goods that will benefit from the restructuring of global economic order [4] - Low-valuation financial sectors are also suggested as a hedge against potential external shocks [4] Group 5 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost Chinese assets, with AI becoming a key focus for investment in May [5][6] - The report emphasizes the potential of the domestic AI industry and applications, supported by high capital expenditure from overseas firms [5][6] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility, with a shift from small-cap growth to large-cap value stocks [7] - Recommendations include reducing exposure to AI sectors with low penetration rates and increasing allocation to structural tech growth areas with performance contributions [7] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like infrastructure and consumption that are expected to benefit from growth dividends [7] Group 7 - The technology growth style is returning as the market begins to shift following the resolution of prior performance and tariff disruptions [8] - The technology sector is seen as having reached a favorable valuation range, making it an attractive area for investment [8] - The report indicates that as pessimism fades, the tech sector is regaining its position as a focal point for capital [8] Group 8 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming more resilient to external shocks, with macro policies expected to support market stability [9] - Key areas of focus include high-margin assets, the tech sector as a long-term investment, and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [9] - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks are currently undervalued and may benefit from expanding domestic demand policies [9] Group 9 - The A-share market is expected to demonstrate independence and resilience, with opportunities in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors [10] - The report highlights the importance of performance improvement and policy alignment in the tech sector, particularly in TMT [10] - It also emphasizes the potential of sectors benefiting from rising domestic consumption expectations [10] Group 10 - The market may experience a controlled pullback due to tariff impacts, but the overall outlook remains positive with favorable domestic policies [11] - The report anticipates that the market will stabilize and potentially return to a bullish state by the latter half of the year [11] - A focus on value-oriented investments is recommended, particularly in themes related to growth and domestic substitution [12]

2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Market Sentiment Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from a structural perspective to quantify market sentiment using various sub-indicators[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses sub-indicators such as industry trading volatility, trading crowding, price-volume consistency, Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR 50) trading proportion, industry trend, RSI, main buying force, PCR combined with VIX, and financing balance ratio[8] - Each sub-indicator is scored based on its sentiment direction and position within Bollinger Bands. Scores are categorized as (-1, 0, 1)[8] - The final sentiment structural indicator is the 20-day moving average of the summed scores. The indicator fluctuates around 0 within the range of [-6, 6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment trends and provides actionable insights for timing decisions[8] 2. Model Name: Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term and short-term trends of indices using N-day moving averages to generate timing signals[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - For N moving averages (N=360 for long-term, N=60 for short-term), scores are assigned based on the relative position of adjacent moving averages. If a shorter moving average is above a longer one, it scores 1; otherwise, it scores 0[18] - The scores are standardized to a 0-100 scale and averaged to derive the trend score at a specific time point[18] - Long/short-term timing signals are generated based on the crossover of the trend score with its 100/20-day moving average[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear signals for sector rotation and market style preferences, favoring value and defensive sectors in the current environment[18] 3. Model Name: RSI Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to compare the relative strength of different market styles (e.g., growth vs. value, small-cap vs. large-cap)[22] - **Model Construction Process**: - For two indices A and B, calculate the standardized ratio of their net values over a fixed period[22] - Compute the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days, where gains on down days are treated as 0 and losses on up days are treated as 0[22] - RSI formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with values above 50 indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - The model calculates 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day RSI values. When the 20-day RSI exceeds the 60-day RSI, the numerator style is favored; otherwise, the denominator style is favored[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies style dominance, currently favoring large-cap and value styles while noting short-term strengthening of growth and small-cap styles[22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Market Sentiment Timing Model - Sentiment indicator value as of April 30, 2025: 0.8, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[9] 2. Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - Short-term signals: Positive for sectors like beauty care (72.88), utilities (86.44), banking (74.58), and oil & petrochemicals (22.03)[19] - Long-term signals: Positive for sectors like banking (95.54), machinery (78.55), and steel (51.25)[19] 3. RSI Style Timing Model - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: RSI - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative strength of buying and selling forces over a specific period[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days[22] - Formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure of market momentum and style preferences[22] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. RSI - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25]

截至4月29日，市场最新融资余额为17913.26亿元，较上个交易日环比减少13.50亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有12个行业融资余额增加，公用事业行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加3.15亿元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有汽车、通信、家用电器等，融资余额分别增加2.60亿元、1.06亿元、1.01 亿元；融资余额减少的行业有19个，医药生物、计算机、机械设备等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少 4.27亿元、2.76亿元、2.35亿元。 以幅度进行统计，纺织服饰行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为67.95亿元，环比增长1.28%，其次 是公用事业、煤炭、钢铁行业，环比增幅分别为0.73%、0.51%、0.45%；融资余额环比降幅居前的行业 有商贸零售、美容护理、农林牧渔等，最新融资余额分别有214.77亿元、54.29亿元、259.07亿元，分别 下降0.97%、0.83%、0.73%。（数据宝） | 农林牧渔 | 259.07 | -1.90 | -0.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 214.77 | -2.11 | -0.97 | | 国防军工 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting emphasizes expanding consumption and highlights investment opportunities in the travel chain for the upcoming May Day holiday, with a focus on service consumption as a key driver for domestic demand growth [1] - The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in travel bookings and a notable increase in cross-border travel demand [1][2] - The report suggests that the combination of policy support and market demand will likely propel the tourism market into a new phase, recommending attention to investment opportunities in the travel chain [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The CITIC retail index rose by 0.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points [2][16] - The retail sector ranked 14th among 30 CITIC primary industries this week, with supermarkets and convenience stores showing the largest gains [2][23] Industry Dynamics Tracking - Notable developments include the opening of Aldi's first store in Wuxi, Hema achieving its first annual profit, and the cancellation of the "refund only" policy by major e-commerce platforms [3][41] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: 1. Recovery in gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks, with recommendations for companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng [4] 2. Gradual recovery in offline sales due to consumption-promoting policies, with a focus on traditional supermarkets like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. Optimized competition landscape in the e-commerce sector, with recommendations for platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4] Industry Data Tracking - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.09 trillion yuan, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in online retail sales [27][29] - The report highlights the resilience of essential consumer goods and the mixed performance of discretionary spending categories [33][39]

Group 1: Market Overview - In April, both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a decline, with the A-share market showing a cumulative drop of 0.6% for the Shanghai 50 index and a maximum drop of 7.4% for the ChiNext index as of April 25, 2025 [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant volatility in April, influenced by overseas risk events and domestic policy expectations, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 4.9% [1][10] Group 2: A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound due to continuous policy support and inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [2][13] - Three asset categories are recommended for investment: stable assets (high dividend stocks, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [2][15][16] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by low valuations of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index [3][17] - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][17] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for May 2025 includes: Zhongzi Technology, Hengrui Medicine, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, China Petroleum, CNOOC Development, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, Honglu Steel Structure, and Puyang Refractories [4][23] - The Hong Kong stock selection for May 2025 includes: Alibaba-W, Pop Mart, Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, NetEase Cloud Music, and Horizon Robotics-W [4][26]

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 煤炭 | | | | 山煤国际 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | -0.60 | 100.90 | -35.31 | 茂业商业 | -10.02 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.68 | 64.57 | 7.08 | 森马服饰 | -9.92 | | 公用事业 | -1.85 | 219.22 | -22.20 | 韶能股份 | -10.06 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指跌0.05%，A股成交量446.72亿股，成交金额4947.94亿 元，比上一个交易日减少15.62%。个股方面，3743只个股上涨，其中涨停51只，1459只个股下跌，其 中跌停56只。从申万行业来看，美容护理、机械设备、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.46%、1.41%、 1.17%；公用事业、纺织服饰、商贸零售等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.85%、0.68%、0.60%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:29） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the durable consumer goods industry [2] Core Insights - The focus is on dividend defense, high-growth new consumption, and traditional consumption stimulus chains. The recommended order of attention is: dividend defense > high-growth new consumption > traditional consumption stimulus [2][14] - The report highlights the importance of high-dividend defensive stocks due to unclear policy signals from the political bureau meeting, suggesting a focus on companies like Midea and Gree in the home appliance sector, and Yum China and Haidilao in the restaurant sector [14] - New consumption opportunities driven by consumption upgrades are emphasized, with specific attention to companies like Pop Mart in trendy toys, Zhongchong in pet products, Gu Ming in tea drinks, Jiuhua Tourism in travel, and Jinbo Bio in medical beauty [14] - Traditional consumption is expected to benefit from growth-stabilizing policies, with a focus on subsidy policies and low-valuation traditional consumption stocks, particularly in the two-wheeler sector and service consumption like tourism [14] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Macro & Midstream Sentiment Tracking - Domestic demand shows signs of stabilization, with first-tier cities outperforming the national average in new housing prices, which increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5][11] - Exports are under pressure, with most categories (except home appliances and textiles) showing a year-on-year decline in March, while home appliances and textiles have seen growth [5][11] 2. Home Appliances - In May, the total production of major home appliances reached 38.21 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [17] - March export data shows air conditioner exports increased by 25% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa [18] 3. Light Industry Manufacturing - New tobacco products are expected to benefit from increased compliance challenges for illegal products, with companies like Simoer likely to gain [22] - The home goods sector is stabilizing, with easing trade frictions and steady domestic demand [22] 4. Textile and Apparel - The apparel industry shows stable sentiment in April, with a focus on brands that have unique advantages [25] 5. Social Services - The report suggests focusing on new consumption and stable dividend stocks, with improvements noted in the restaurant sector and ongoing recovery in the hotel industry [26] 6. Retail Internet - The competitive landscape in food delivery is evolving, with JD's significant investment in delivery services and Meituan's strong market position being highlighted [28]

Market Performance - The A-share index rose by 1.15% during the week of April 21-25, with the CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.38% respectively, outperforming the overall A-share index [1] - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the CSI 1000's performance of 1.85% surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index's increase of 0.38% [1] - The cyclical and growth styles outperformed the overall A-share index, with increases of 2.44% and 1.41% respectively, while stable, consumer, and financial styles saw smaller gains of 0.73%, 0.24%, and 0.21% [1] Industry Insights - The automotive, beauty care, and basic chemical industries led the gains among primary industries, with increases of 4.87%, 3.80%, and 2.71% respectively [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage, real estate, and coal industries experienced declines [1] Policy Developments - Recent meetings emphasized the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity to support the real economy [2] - The World Bank highlighted China's commitment to adopting more proactive macro policies to achieve annual growth targets amid complex external conditions [2] Consumer Sector - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy to boost inbound consumption, which currently accounts for about 0.5% of China's GDP, compared to 1%-3% in major countries [3] - The consumer sector has shown a rotation upward since mid-April, with retail (+6.35%), real estate (+3.20%), beauty care (+1.97%), and food and beverage (+1.00%) sectors leading the gains [3] Future Outlook - The smart consumption sector is expected to see significant growth driven by policy support and demographic changes, with a shift from optional to essential consumption [4] - Analysts suggest focusing on three key areas for investment: dividend stocks with attractive valuations, technology sectors benefiting from policy support, and large consumer sectors supported by domestic demand strategies [4]