南华期货苹果产业周报 ——节前备货尾声，成交氛围偏弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 source： 上海钢联，南华研究 万吨 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 0 250 500 750 1000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 2026 12/01 12/15 12/29 01/12 01/26 02/09 02/23 -1000 -500 0 500 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 AP2603合约还有不到一个月的时间进行交割，市场当前重点关注春节旺季消费情况，上周产区节前备货 步入尾声，去库加速，但现货价格弱稳，果农降价促销心理显现，整体需求仍受到高价压制。从盘面看， AP2605强于AP2603，03合约减仓下跌，需要关注交割品短期问题是否得到改善。上周全国苹果去库环比加 . 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、当前产区春节 ...

北京时间2月6日凌晨，全球多类资产遭遇集中抛售，加密货币市场出现大规模爆仓。CoinGlass数据显 示，近24小时内，加密货币市场共有超43万人爆仓，爆仓总金额达20.69亿美元。 针对本轮资产价格波动，美国芝加哥商业交易所宣布调整部分黄金、白银和铝等期货合约的保证金比 例，黄金新保证金比例上调至9%，白银上调至18%，新标准将于当地时间2月6日收盘后正式生效。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 交易平台SynFutures首席运营官Wenny Cai指出，当前清算规模巨大，市场情绪已转向风险规避，价格 走势更多受资产负债表机制驱动，而非市场叙事逻辑。Marex Solutions高级全球市场策略师Ilan Solot表 示："这基本反映了当前市场的看空情绪，比特币近期未能发挥避险资产作用，也是原因之一。" 彭博汇编数据显示，比特币交易所交易基金在录得约5.62亿美元净流入后，后续两个交易日出现超8亿 美元资金流出。CryptoQuant报告指出，去年同期大量购入比特币的美国ETF，在2026年已转为净卖出 方。Monarq Asset M ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 ★国债期货行情简评： 各品种 基差与 历史均 值比较 （按到 期日聚 合） 各品种基差各品种净基差 各品种 净基差 与历史 均值比 较（按 到期日 聚合） 各品种 基差季 节性 （按交 易日聚 合） 各品种 净基差 季节性 （按交 易日聚 合） 各品种后复权基差 各品种后复权净基差 各品种基差跨期价差 ★风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债均收涨，30年期主力合约收涨0.58%，十年期主力合约涨0.11%，五年期主力合约涨 0.05%，两年期主力合约收跌0.05% Ø 上周各品种基差分化，十债CTD券为250018，6号基差收于0.05元左右， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum is rated as weak, and palladium is also rated as weak [3] Core View - Platinum and palladium prices may remain low for some time due to weak high - frequency data and the shadow over the precious metals sector. They lack the basis for a rapid rebound to previous highs. Palladium shows stronger resilience during the pullback [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position**: At the close of this week, the total position of Guangbo was 27,444 lots with a trading volume of 111,512 lots; the total position of Guangpalladium was 9,921 lots with a trading volume of 56,422 lots. Both trading volume and position decreased compared to last week. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [7] - **Price Structure**: This week, the monthly structure of platinum and palladium switched to B structure [7] - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: As the market continued to decline this week, the platinum - palladium ratio continued to converge. The foreign - exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.21, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.23 at the close on Friday. One can consider a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is between 1.15 - 1.2 [12] - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum main contract was inverted on Friday, with the London price higher. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium main contract was inverted before Friday and returned to a state where New York was at a premium on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an average value of $35.4 per ounce this week [15][19] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.4 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 22.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [21] - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 24.5 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 13.6 yuan per gram [23] - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 14.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25] - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 5.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [27] - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 63.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 39.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [29] - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 53.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is 29.6 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [31] - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 71.2 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 12.5 yuan per gram [33] - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 40.9 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [35] - **Recycling Spread**: The average platinum recycling discount this week was at - 88 yuan per gram, and the palladium recycling discount widened rapidly to around - 150 yuan per gram during the week [38] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 2.63 tons (about 84,400 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.68 tons (about 21,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored in the future [40] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount for platinum and palladium has diverged. Platinum's forward discount has continued to significantly converge, with the full - term limit falling within 6% on Friday. Palladium's forward discount has risen rapidly, reaching around 4% on Friday [45] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory further declined to 646,400 ounces (about 20.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 50.5% on Friday [46] - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 190,900 ounces (about 5.94 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts rapidly increased to 77.7% [49] - **China's Import - Export Data**: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have soared, and imports and net inflows have diverged. The cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount further increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was - 5.5 kg, and it was - 50 kg on Friday. For palladium, the supply - demand balance was below - 150 kg on two days this week [58][59][60]

周度报告-黄金 市场波动增加，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 8 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 1.4%至 4964 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 4.21%， 通胀预期 2.32%，实际利率微降至 1.89%，美元指数涨 0.66%至 97.6， 标普 500 指数跌 0.1%，人民币震荡收涨，内外价差波动增加。 贵 金 属 贵金属延续高波动状态，黄金波动率下降至 30 附近，白银波动率 仍有 80%，多空博弈增加，黄金整体表现好于白银，金银比价继 续回升。市场继续消化凯文·沃什的利空，但金价在下跌至 60 日均线附近获得资金抄底介入，成为支撑位。美联储多位官员发 表讲话，米兰已经辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职，意味着可 能会继续担任美联储理事，也是特朗普阵营的鸽派代表，米兰表 示美联储今年有必要将利率下调超过 100 个基点，鹰派的官员则 表示当前通胀高于目标水平，博斯蒂克直言预计 2026 年不会降 息，政策利率应该维持在适度紧缩的水平，短期美联储步入观望 阶段，短期货币政策层面缺乏利多。美国经济数据喜忧 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 矿石价格持稳， 氧化铝供给压减 [Table_Summary] ★ 矿石价格持稳，氧化铝供给压减 有 色 原料：上周国内矿石价格持稳，山西 58/5 品位矿石到厂含税价 格 640 元，河南 58/5 铝土矿到厂价 610 元 / 吨。春节期间多 数矿山进入停产周期，市场价格维持相对稳定，但价格仍处于下 行周期。进口方面，阿拉丁（ALD）几内亚矿（45/3）报价维持 61-62 美元/干吨，下游用户接货意向逐渐向 CIF 55 美元/吨靠拢。 海运费价格小幅上涨后，几内亚 FOB 价格已跌破部分矿山成本。 期内新到矿石 423.2 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 353.4 万吨，澳 大利亚资源69.7万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape船市场参考报价26.5 美元/吨。 金 属 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格维持稳定。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2580-2640 元/吨，较上周持平；国产加权指数 2610.4 元/吨，较上周持平。进口氧化铝港口报价在 2700-2740 元/吨， 较上周持平。市场价格受市场传闻影响，波动相对剧烈。进口方 面，西澳大利亚 3 ...

d[Table_Title] 风险偏好波动回升，美元走向震荡 周度报告-外汇期货 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数微升，美 债收益率微降至 4.21%。美元指数涨 0.66%至 97.6，非美货币涨 跌互现，离岸人民币涨 0.41%，欧元跌 0.31%，英镑跌 0.55%， 日元跌 1.58%，瑞郎跌 0.39%，加元、泰铢、林吉特、卢比收 跌，澳元、兰特、雷亚尔、比索收涨。金价涨 1.4%至 4964 美元 /盎司，VIX 指数回升至 17.7，现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 2.3% 至 71 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 股票市场开始逐渐消化凯文·沃什当选美联储主席带来的利空 影响，但整体情绪偏弱，科技公司财报对市场影响增加。地缘 政治风险边际降温，美国和伊朗重启谈判，中美领导人通电 话，4 月美国总统特朗普计划访华，关注后续进展。美联储多位 官员开始发表讲话，理事米兰已经辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主 席一职，意味着可能会继续担任美联储理事，也是特朗普阵营 的鸽派代表，米兰表示美联储今年有必要将利率下调超过 100 个基点，鹰派的官员则 ...

保证金制度是杠杆机制运作的基础。根据2025年全国最新修订的《期货交易管理条例》及相关细则，期 货交易实行严格的保证金制度，主要分为初始保证金和维持保证金两类。初始保证金是交易者开仓时需 按合约价值的一定比例向期货经纪机构缴纳的资金，用于确保合约履行的履约担保；维持保证金则是持 仓期间账户内必须保持的最低保证金水平，通常低于初始保证金比例，是防范持仓风险的重要阈值。 杠杆机制的具体运作逻辑可通过保证金比例与合约价值的关系体现。例如，若某期货合约的初始保证金 比例为10%，则交易者每持有价值10万元的合约，仅需缴纳1万元的初始保证金，此时杠杆倍数为10 倍。这意味着合约价格的变动会以杠杆倍数放大交易者的盈利或亏损：若合约价格向有利方向变动 1%，交易者的实际收益将达到10%；反之，若价格反向变动1%，亏损同样会放大至10%。这一放大效 应是杠杆机制最显著的特点。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界作为专业的金融信息服务平台，专注于提供及时、准 确的财经资讯与金融知识内容，助力用户深入理解各类金融市场机制与动态。平台始终坚持以客观、严 谨的态度整理和呈现信息，致力于为用户提供有价值的金融信息服务。 免责 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has entered a phase of extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations and rapid changes, leading to the emergence of a notable figure in the market, Bian Ximing, who is rumored to have made substantial profits during this period [1][4]. Group 1: Bian Ximing's Background and Market Influence - Bian Ximing is the actual controller of Zhongcai Futures and a significant figure in the Chinese futures market [5]. - He has been referred to as a "big short" by foreign media, a title that reflects his trading style and historical positions [6]. - Reports suggest that Bian's positions in Zhongcai Futures generated over $500 million (approximately 3.6 billion RMB) in profits from a large short position before a recent silver price collapse [7]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Philosophy - Bian Ximing's investment strategies have reportedly yielded nearly $4 billion (approximately 28 billion RMB) over three years through a combination of long positions in gold and copper and short positions in silver [7]. - His investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [8]. - Bian has documented his reflections on trading and investment over 30 years, focusing on how to navigate uncertainty in the market [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The current precious metals market is characterized by intense competition, where strong companies tend to gain market share during economic downturns, aligning with the principle of survival of the fittest [10]. - Investors are encouraged to accept market realities and identify opportunities by recognizing market inefficiencies [10]. - Bian's insights suggest that successful investing requires a deep understanding of companies and their growth potential, as well as a commitment to personal integrity and continuous learning [10][12].

边锡明。 近期有市场传闻称，本轮史诗级贵金属行情中，有位隐居海外的大佬豪赚280亿。 贵金属市场的波动，最近明显进入了一个更极端的阶段。 价格起落幅度之大、节奏之快，让不少参与者感到陌生——就在这种高度波动的背景下，市场中开始流 传起一个颇具传奇色彩的名字。 这一说法迅速在市场中发酵，也让这位在期货圈本就颇具分量的人物，再次被推到聚光灯下。 边锡明，是中财期货的实际控制人，也是中国期货市场绕不开的人物之一。 在外媒报道中，他曾被冠以"大空头"。 这个名字，并不来自个人自述，而是源于海外媒体对其相关席位历史交易风格的概括。 据FT和彭博测算，近期中财期货席位在近期白银价格崩盘前建立了大规模空头头寸，这笔逆势布局的 收益已超过5亿美元（约合36亿元人民币）。 这轮白银"史诗级"多空交战，并非边锡明第一次出手。据传闻报道，边锡明控制的中财期货席位在三年 时间内，通过连续做多黄金、做多铜、反手做空白银，累计实现投资收益近40亿美元（约合280亿人民 币）。 对于传闻，《期货日报》分析及中财期货官方回应称："中财期货席位持仓均为代客户持仓汇总，传闻 误将客户整体行为视为公司自营操作"。 因此，尽管市场传闻不断，但其个人 ...