1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. After the short - term boost of geopolitics to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war triggers market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. The stickiness of the service end is the core resistance to the decline of inflation, while the slowdown of housing inflation and the continuation of commodity deflation provide key impetus for long - term inflation cooling. In the context of rising energy prices, it may re - intensify price upward pressure, which will make the Fed cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, suppressing precious metal prices. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21997.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.07% to 5175.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 85.48 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.21%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.37 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the current geopolitical conflict, the US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a mild month - on - month increase of 0.3%, the core CPI month - on - month was also stable at 0.2%, and the year - on - year increase of core inflation remained at a near - five - year low [2] - The spokesman of the Central Command of Khatam al - Anbiya in Iran severely warned that Iran is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and clearly stated that "no liter of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions favorable to the US and its allies." To deal with the violent shock in the energy market and relieve the supply tension, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to launch multiple trade investigations on Wednesday local time according to Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act through the US Trade Representative's Office to pave the way for imposing new tariffs, covering issues such as digital service tax and exchange - rate manipulation [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. Geopolitics provides short - term support for gold and silver prices, and the sharp rise in oil prices under the US - Iran war background triggers inflation expectations. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle East conflict, but the stickiness of the service end slows down the decline rhythm. Rising energy prices may re - intensify price upward pressure, making the Fed cautious about interest - rate cuts and suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [8] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [8] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.59 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged at 35.20 tons [64] - **Silver**: The closing price of silver ETFs fell 2.72% to 77.91 US dollars; the holdings of SLV US decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, and the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion US dollars; the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disrupted, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue with moderately loose monetary and more proactive fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs further observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the Middle - East conflict, but the current rise in energy prices may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term [10]. - The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, while aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. Zinc prices may break downward, and lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and alumina prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [13][15][17][18][20][22][23][26][27][29]. - The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term. Glass prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [32][34][38][39][42][43][46][49][51]. - For the energy - chemical sector, rubber trading should be flexible. Crude oil recommends a short - term bearish strategic allocation. Methanol suggests taking profits at high prices. Urea suggests short - selling at high prices. Pure benzene and styrene suggest empty - position waiting. PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks. PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene prices have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [56][58][60][62][64][66][68][70][72][74][76]. - For the agricultural products sector, pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term, egg prices may have a short - term rebound and then be sold short, bean - and - rapeseed meal prices suggest short - term waiting and seeing, oil prices are bullish in the medium term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [79][81][83][85][89][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market News**: The IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Trump said the military action against Iran was "almost over". The National Supercomputing Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens to each OpenClaw user for free for 2 weeks. The US February unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On March 11, the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - issue treasury bonds were higher than the ChinaBond valuations. The IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices all declined. The US February CPI and core CPI were stable for two consecutive months. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA will release 400 million barrels of oil reserves. The Trump administration will launch trade investigations [8][9]. - **Strategy View**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the conflict, but the current energy price rise may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. Be cautiously bearish on precious metals [10]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to copper price fluctuations. LME and domestic warehouse inventories changed, and the spot premium changed [12]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to concerns about aluminum supply, and aluminum prices were strong. Warehouse inventories and futures positions changed [14]. - **Strategy View**: The supply risk in the Middle - East remains, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the inventory accumulation pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices declined. Warehouse inventories, basis, and import and export data are provided [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply. Zinc prices may break downward and are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: The lead industry has problems such as high inventory and low downstream start - up. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [18]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot prices and cost data are provided [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined slightly. Supply is tight, and demand has not fully recovered [21]. - **Strategy View**: The market is bullish on tin prices, but attention should be paid to the current situation of loose supply and demand and rising inventory. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: Lithium carbonate prices declined. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial driving force is limited, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [24]. - **Strategy View**: Maintenance increases and production delays reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to potential driving factors [25][26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices declined slightly. Spot prices, warehouse inventories, and other data are provided [27]. - **Strategy View**: The market procurement atmosphere has improved, and stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is strong, and demand is expected to improve. Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [33]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore supply fluctuates at a high level, and high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: Coking coal and coke prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [36]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: Glass demand has improved slightly, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector [42][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities [46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices declined slightly, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to increase in March, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply and demand are expected to increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Tire enterprise start - up rates, inventory, and spot prices are provided [53][54][55]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding a long - NR and short - RU2609 position [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices declined [57]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil, and have corresponding trading strategies for spreads [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol spot and futures prices changed [59]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices [60]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market News**: Urea spot and futures prices changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell at high prices [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [63]. - **Strategy View**: Empty - position waiting [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy View**: PVC prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: PTA prices may have a short - term correction, and PXN may rise in the future, but pay attention to risks [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene prices are expected to decline in March, and may enter a de - stocking cycle. Pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [74]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term production - matching issues [76]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. Supply and demand data are provided [78]. - **Strategy View**: Pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and wait and see for the far - end contracts [79]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were mostly stable with some narrow fluctuations. Supply and demand data are provided [80]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - end contracts [81]. 3.5.3 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean import, production, and export data are provided [82]. - **Strategy View**: Wait and see in the short term [83]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market News**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data from Indonesia and Malaysia are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: Bullish on oils in the medium term [85]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar production, export, and inventory data from India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided [86][88]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions at low prices [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data are provided [90]. - **Strategy View**: Buy at low prices if downstream starts up well [91].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数低开，全天横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货 主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.04%，5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.03%， 2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 265 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 405 亿元逆回购 到期，合计当日净回笼 140 亿元。 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the USDA's March supply and demand report on the soybean meal market is limited, and the market focus has shifted to the rhythm of soybean imports. The short - term soybean meal futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. The palm oil market has returned to rationality after the emotional premium was withdrawn, and its short - term trend is weak in the short - term and fluctuates in the medium - term [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The USDA's March supply and demand report has limited impact. Future attention should be paid to EPA biofuel blending requirements, the March 31 inventory and sowing report, and Sino - US trade agreements. In the domestic market, the uncertainty of soybean arrivals increases, affecting the oil mills' startup plans and soybean meal supply. The market focus has shifted from the expected increase in South American supply to the rhythm of imports, and negative news in logistics may cause short - term supply shortages and price pulses. The short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than the external market [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: After the emotional premium in the oil market was withdrawn, it has gradually returned to rationality. The MPOB February report shows that Malaysian palm oil production declined more than expected but exports were less than expected, and the inventory decline was limited and still at a high level. In March, the Ramadan restricted production recovery, and Indonesia's simultaneous increase in special taxes and tariffs in March may open the export window for Malaysian palm oil. High - frequency export data has boosted market confidence. Palm oil is relatively resistant to decline under the background of weak crude oil and external oils, with a short - term weak trend [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by energy attributes, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 12 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 3 月 11 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，开盘震荡上行后有所回落，午后继续下挫后 反弹修复，收涨 0.26%，全市超 3000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.64%、0.12%、0.16%，中证 500 收盘下跌 0.08%。期货方面，IF、 IH 主力合约分别收涨 0.49%、0.08%，IC、IM 主力合约分别下跌 0.40%、0.01%（按 收盘价计算）。 | 表1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 1.11% to $5183.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 4.11% to $85.91 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract fell 2.8% to 21997 yuan per kilogram [1] - On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index first fell and then rose, finally closing up 0.32% at 99.26; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.23%. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel [2] Important Information - On March 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 3.716 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1077.281 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 115.51 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 11.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.1%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 33.8% [1] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value. The U.S. core CPI in February increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.30% [1] - On March 11, the U.S. government launched a new round of 301 trade investigations on the industrial over - capacity of 16 major trading partners to re - impose tariff pressure [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Wright issued a statement on the release of strategic petroleum reserves. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to Trump's request to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil from their reserves to reduce energy prices. As part of this action, Trump authorized the Energy Department to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve starting next week, and it is expected to take about 120 days to complete the delivery [1] - Trump said that Iran has "nothing left to fight", and the war will end soon. The Iranian president put forward three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war compensation, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Three ships were reported to have been attacked in the Gulf waters on Wednesday. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired on ships that did not obey orders in the Gulf region [1] Market Logic - The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment provides some support for gold prices. Affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the market's expectation of rising interest rates, COMEX gold had a slight correction on Wednesday, and COMEX silver had a larger decline [2] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Due to profit - taking and inflation concerns, the bond market sentiment remained weak [8] - Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan today. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - In terms of fundamentals, the PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. Although the post - holiday high - frequency economic indicators showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand was still strong, the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" might boost the real - estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, which dampened the market's easing expectations. The unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, but the sharp rise in oil prices also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The significant fluctuations in the financial market also brought liquidity shocks. The report suggested paying attention to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The bond market sentiment was weak due to profit - taking and inflation concerns [8] - **Interest - rate Bonds**: Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - **Funding Market**: With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - **Conclusion**: The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, dampening the market's easing expectations. The short - term situation between the US and Iran was unclear, bringing both safe - haven demand and inflation expectations. The financial market fluctuations also brought liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference successfully concluded on the morning of the 11th, passing several important resolutions [13] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring oil prices during the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The release volume would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two batches during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was distributed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and countries were expected to make a decision on Wednesday. The G7 supported the use of strategic reserves to address the oil supply shortage and market fluctuations caused by the Iran war [13] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double - digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2% year - on - year; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year - on - year; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan. China's trade value with ASEAN was 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%; with the EU was 998.94 billion yuan, up 19.9%; and with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, down 16.9% [14] - China's government debt structure has been changing, with the central government taking on more responsibility in new debt issuance to relieve local fiscal pressure. In 2026, China plans to issue 1.189 trillion yuan in new government debt, of which the central government will issue 669 billion yuan in Treasury bonds, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt, and local governments will issue 520 billion yuan in local government bonds, accounting for about 43.7% [14] - China's CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, higher than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of 0.2%. The average CPI from January to February rose 0.8% year - on - year. China's PPI in February fell 0.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 1.2% decline and the previous value of 1.4% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI rose 1.0% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year in February, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.8% year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the rise in international commodity prices, the rapid growth of domestic demand in some industries, and the continuous effectiveness of macro - policies, the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing continuously [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of Treasury bond futures on March 11, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the change in the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions are disrupting global supply chains, with the Red Sea crisis affecting shipping operations and domestic demand for automobiles showing signs of pressure, indicating challenges for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Impact - The Red Sea crisis has led to over a hundred ships being blocked, significantly impacting global trade [1] - Recent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz highlight the escalating regional risks, despite signals of de-escalation from the U.S. [1] - Domestic automobile production and sales have declined year-on-year and month-on-month, reflecting ongoing pressures on internal demand [1] - The U.S. core CPI remains stable, providing room for potential adjustments in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Commodity and Market Analysis - Oil prices saw a 7% increase in the SC night market, influenced by the IEA's announcement to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves [2][12] - The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves, opting for a situation assessment first [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of the week ending March 6, 2026 [13] - The European shipping index (EC) rose by 7.15%, with Maersk maintaining pricing despite seasonal demand challenges [3] - The Dow Jones index experienced a pullback, with market dynamics shifting from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven" as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [10] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector reported a significant drop in production and sales, with February figures showing a 31.7% and 23.1% decline month-on-month, respectively [7] - The domestic methanol production capacity is under pressure, with a decrease in operational load due to maintenance activities [14] - The rubber market is experiencing a rebound due to seasonal low production, with supply constraints expected to persist until May [15] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting production in the Middle East [22] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - The financing balance in the stock market increased by 9.773 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards sectors with strong earnings potential [10] - The bond market saw a slight decline, with the 10-year treasury yield rising to 1.8175% amid heightened global risk aversion [11] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and policy adjustments in response to geopolitical developments [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating of the previously recommended overweight stocks, including stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, is downgraded to neutral. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with non - metallic building materials rising across the board. Shipping futures led the gains, while energy products led the losses [1]. - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine the current stage of geopolitical conflicts, which affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active policy support in the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the market will shift to the verification stage of actual data [1]. - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 7.15%. Non - metallic building materials all rose, with PVC up 5.63%. Chemical products mostly rose, with butadiene rubber up 5.51%. Oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybean meal up 3.58%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with red dates up 2.12%. Black commodities mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.90%. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold up 0.73%. Energy products led the losses, with crude oil down 9.61%. New energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate down 5.14%. Base metals mostly fell, with Shanghai tin down 0.71% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The performance of financial market products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.43% on the day, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.01% [7]. - **Industry Index**: Different industries in the China Securities Industry Index showed different trends. For example, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose 0.73% on the day, while the national defense and military industry fell 1.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also had different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 8.84% on the day, and COMEX gold rose 1.86% [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Domestic main commodities including shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products showed various price movements. For example, the container shipping European line rose 7.51% on the day, and gold rose 0.2% [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Affected by the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas events, stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and it is necessary to observe the actual situation of domestic economic data to form the next trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, the performance of non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected from the perspective of financial attributes [1]. - **TS and TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, treasury bond futures, and precious metals are all expected to be in a shock state. The short - term judgment of gold and silver is affected by factors such as inflation expectations, US fundamental data, and Fed monetary policy [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be in a shock - weak state, affected by geopolitical events, the passage volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as policy issuance, production and shipment, and cost [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [4]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Most energy chemical products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and macro - level changes [4][5]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand [4][5].

Macro Dynamics - China's stance against the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea remains unchanged [2] Automotive Industry - In February, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 765,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% [3] Financial Institutions - The Guotou Silver LOF will be suspended from trading on March 12, 2026, from the market opening until 10:30 AM due to significant premium over net asset value [4][5] Market Data - On March 11, A-shares saw a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.25% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.31%. The total trading volume was approximately 250.84 billion yuan, an increase of about 110.49 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - The Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index down 0.24% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.11%. Notable gains were seen in automotive stocks, with NIO rising over 14% [8] - Chemical futures surged significantly on March 11, with paraxylene futures hitting the limit up with a 13% increase [9] Company Dynamics - Laopu Gold expects a net profit growth of 226% to 233% in 2025, with projected sales revenue of approximately 31 to 32 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 216% to 227% compared to 2024 [10][11] - Dingshen Communications announced that the market ban period imposed by the State Grid and Southern Power Grid has expired, but the recovery of bidding processes will take time [13] - Mediterranean Shipping Company announced new transportation services connecting the King Abdullah Port and Jeddah Port to the Gulf region, with a capacity exceeding 24,000 TEUs [14]