1. Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In the context of expected increased supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe the performance at the 13,000 level, while paying attention to the raw material supply situation in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of cup rubber on the international market was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, down 1.40 Thai baht/kg from June 2; the price of glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg, down 1.50 Thai baht/kg from June 2 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 9 - 1 spread was - 832, down 25 from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 25, the same as the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was 860, up 25 from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 1057,000 tons, down 435,000 tons from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 19,410,000 tons, down 1,520,000 tons from the previous month; India's production was 454,000 tons, down 76,000 tons from the previous month; China's production was 581,000 tons, up 423,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.80%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week. In April, the domestic tire production was 102,002,000 pieces, down 5,444,000 pieces from the previous month; the tire export volume was 57,390,000 pieces, down 4,900,000 pieces from the previous month. The total import volume of natural rubber in April was 523,200 tons, down 70,900 tons from the previous month; the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 690,000 tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 614,584 tons, up 385 tons from the previous day; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 17,641 tons, down 25,903 tons from the previous week [1]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - **Glass**: The glass price will continue to be under pressure, oscillate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance situation is good, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For trading, consider the 7 - 9 positive spread in the inter - month and short - sell on the rebound of the far - month contract for short - term operations [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,290 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the South China quotation was 1,320 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Glass 2505 was 1,098 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Glass 2509 was 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 05 basis was 62 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: On June 4, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Northwest quotation was 1,080 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Soda Ash 2509 was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the 05 basis was 229 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply Volume**: On May 30, the soda ash operating rate was 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points from May 23; the weekly soda ash output was 685,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from May 23; the float glass daily melting volume was 157,700 tons, up 1,000 tons from May 23; the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 99,990 tons, the same as May 23 [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 30, the glass factory warehouse was 67,762,000 weight - cases, down 7,000 weight - cases from May 23; the soda ash factory warehouse was 162,430 tons, up 2,200 tons from May 23; the soda ash delivery warehouse was 34,750 tons, down 1,800 tons from May 23; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 18.1 days, the same as before [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to the difficulty of significant increase in demand and the expected growth in production. However, the rise in raw material prices is beneficial to strengthen the cost support, and the concentrated short - position closing will bring a wave of price increase [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 4, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 7,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the 2506 - 2507 spread was - 260, down 270 from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 10, up 5 from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 spread was - 10, the same as the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month; Xinjiang's output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month; Yunnan's output was 13,500 tons, up 1,200 tons from the previous month; Sichuan's output was 11,300 tons, up 6,700 tons from the previous month. The national operating rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points from the previous month; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points from the previous month; Yunnan's operating rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points from the previous month; Sichuan's operating rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory was 190,100 tons, up 2,700 tons from the previous week; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory was 24,700 tons, up 600 tons from the previous week; the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory was 22,800 tons, up 300 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 589,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 309,000 tons, down 4,400 tons from the previous day; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 280,000 tons, up 11,400 tons from the previous day [3]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. However, due to the expected contraction of the supply side, if the production decreases and the supply - side pressure eases, the inventory is expected to be gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Relevant Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 4, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon was 30,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On June 4, the price of PS2506 was 35,055 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,935 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly, the silicon wafer output was 134,000 CM, up 1,000 CM from the previous week; the polysilicon output was 21,600 tons, up 100 tons from the previous week. Monthly, in May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, up 700 tons from the previous month; in April, the polysilicon import volume was 2,900 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month; the export volume was 2,000 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: On June 4, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous day; the silicon wafer inventory was 185,700 CM, down 3,800 CM from the previous day; the polysilicon warehouse receipts were 1,920 lots, up 350 lots from the previous day [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On June 4, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 35,055 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.44%, and the open interest decreased by 3,727 lots to 67,873 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium to the main contract narrowed to 1,445 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 7,280 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.9%, and the open interest decreased by 19,865 lots to 180,300 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 425 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region during the wet season has led to the resumption of production, and large northwest factories will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang factories, and the upper pressure stems from high inventories and increased supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas [2]. - In the short term, the market has slightly recovered with the macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news and be vigilant against significant volatility risks [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3 to 7,175 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most 553 and 421 silicon products decreased, with the price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropping from 7,650 yuan/ton to 7,600 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed from 575 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 887 to 61,803, and the weekly inventories in various ports and factories also decreased [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 695 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polysilicon, dense material, and cauliflower material remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,140 yuan/ton to 1,445 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 350 to 1,920, and the weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 90,000 tons to 141,000 tons, while the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers remained stable, while the price of M10 single - crystal battery cells decreased by 0.01 yuan/watt [3]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, inventory changes, DMC weekly inventories, and polysilicon weekly inventories [19][21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][30][33].

工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 受商品情绪影响，工业硅多晶硅盘面反弹 2025-06-04，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7150元/吨，最后收于7280元/吨，较前一日结算变化（205） 元/吨，变化（2.90）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓180328手，2025-06-05仓单总数为61803手，较前一日变化 -887手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8500-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 四川、上海地区部分硅价小幅走弱。西北、新疆硅价暂稳。97硅今日价格同样暂稳，现货成交情况有所好转。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，华北单体企业正式进入检修，本次 检修所有装置全部停车，预计检修时长15天，影响DMC产量4000吨左右。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格触底反弹，主要收到整体商品情绪好转，前期下跌较 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both the futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the bottom of silicon prices is difficult to determine. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, it is advisable to short on rebounds due to the weak fundamentals and the difficulty of an upward trend in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 0.61% to 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price increased by 2.97% to 7,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed, and the downstream had insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type polysilicon materials remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price increased by 2.02% to 35,055 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and some plants might have new production capacity put into operation. The output was expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor changes in the supply side [1]. Other Information - A monomer enterprise in North China started a 15 - day maintenance, which was expected to affect the DMC output by about 4,000 tons [1]. - Bangjie Co., Ltd. decided to continue the suspension of its battery cell production line to avoid expanding losses [1]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the construction industry at 51.0% and the service industry at 50.2%. Some industries were in a high - prosperity range, while others were below the critical point [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a continuous decline, with cost support weakening, supply increasing, demand remaining weak, high social inventory, and expected short - term price decline. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. - The polysilicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices falling in both the futures and spot markets. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing as it enters the flat - water period, and the overall in - production cost of the industry will decline after the shutdown of high - cost enterprises in the north. Cost support for silicon prices is insufficient. - In May, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 416 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,188 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 103 yuan/ton. [2][36] 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the number of open furnaces increased significantly, mainly from restarted enterprises in Xinjiang. As of now, the restart in Xinjiang has temporarily ended, and there are no expected new restarts in the short term. In Sichuan, enterprises are gradually increasing furnace openings with the decline of electricity prices in the wet season. Yunnan still has restart plans after maintenance, expected to restart around mid - to - late June. - In the week of May 29, the silicon enterprise's furnace - opening rate increased slightly, with a net increase of 20 furnaces. [2][37] 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most transactions are at low prices. Polysilicon plants maintain a large - scale production reduction, the organic silicon industry reduces production, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, with rigid procurement of industrial silicon. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 29, the industrial silicon social inventory (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 58.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons; the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan totaled 23.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 million tons. [2][119] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - With strong restart expectations in the southwest production area and an increase in furnace openings of some silicon enterprises in the north, the supply shows an obvious increasing trend, while the demand maintains rigid procurement. Futures and spot prices are falling in tandem, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the short term. The futures price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. [2] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,900 tons. As of May 29, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises will increase and decrease simultaneously, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [67] 3.2.2 Demand - Demand is weak. Domestically, orders have shrunk significantly, while overseas orders are relatively stable. Long - term component orders have decreased significantly, and the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline. The demand for battery chips from the component side has decreased, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery chips will be tight in June. Silicon wafer prices have declined across all sizes, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction. [2] 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the futures and spot prices are falling in tandem. The downstream purchasing willingness remains low, and there is no expectation of bottom - fishing for inventory. Although the number of warehouse receipts has not increased significantly, the weak fundamentals have not led to the trading of squeeze - out risks in the futures price. In the short term, warehouse receipts have alleviated the price factor, and the strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Production - In May, the operating rate of China's DMC was 62.37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.79 percentage points; the DMC output was 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The industry mainly maintains production with reduced loads, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. [87] 3.3.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the price of organic silicon has fallen to a low level, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. [94] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Production - In the week of May 29, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. [104] 3.4.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure. The supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand side is relatively weak, with the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule being adjusted down, the silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quota being reduced, and the terminal market showing strong wait - and - see sentiment. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing the market price. Long - term operations should still focus on short - selling [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,055 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 695 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 67,873 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,727 lots. The price difference between the June - July contracts is 1,940 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 485 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton; the spot price is 8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 582,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - As of June 4, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all stable. The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce has initiated an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition in the form of "price war". In the polysilicon market, the supply side is operating at reduced loads, and the demand side is weak [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of various types of polysilicon remain stable despite limited order transactions following the holiday period [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 36,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan per ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 30,000 to 33,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [1] - Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, most orders have not yet been finalized, with only 3-4 companies signing new orders, indicating a temporary stability in prices [1] - There is still a certain demand for silicon material procurement from downstream, and the price will depend on the new round of orders, with limited expected decline [1] - The end of the terminal rush installation has occurred, and downstream crystal pulling plants are still exerting strong pressure on silicon material prices, making it difficult for companies to maintain price levels [1] - If prices decline further, more companies are expected to accelerate production halts and maintenance strategies to cope with extreme market conditions [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies, all operating at reduced capacity [2] - In May 2025, China's polysilicon production is projected to be 101,600 tons, reflecting a 2.52% increase compared to the previous period [2] - This month, polysilicon companies will undergo capacity replacement, which may lead to a slight increase in production at some bases, while overall supply is expected to remain stable [2] - It is anticipated that the monthly supply will gradually begin to decline in the third quarter, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand relations and potential for a phase of market recovery [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The industrial silicon industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation due to the oversupply situation in the short - term, with relatively high total inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, affected by the increase in warehouse receipts and weak downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2507 opened at 7110 yuan/ton and closed at 7070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton (-1.39%) compared to the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 200193 lots at the close, and on June 4, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 62690 lots, a decrease of 563 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8500 - 9200 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions also continued to fall. In May 2025, the industrial silicon output was 30.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. Some manufacturers stopped quoting prices. The overall market trading atmosphere was good, and the trading activity of both buyers and sellers was at a normal level [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures price hit a new low, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply was relatively weak overall, but the expectation of resuming production in large northwest factories increased, and some silicon factories in the southwest were preparing to start furnaces during the wet season. The demand remained weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 35605 yuan/ton and closing at 34360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 71600 lots (77400 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 144680 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.85%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.57GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00%. The weekly polysilicon output was 21600.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.40GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - **Strategy** - The futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by the significant increase in the number of warehouse receipts. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The polysilicon industry was operating at a reduced load, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but the inventory digestion was slow. The downstream demand was still weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [6].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results after the Dragon Boat Festival, with significant gains in gold, silver, and crude oil, while declines were noted in butadiene rubber, No. 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [1] - The chief non-ferrous analyst from Guosen Futures indicated that short-term volatility in precious metals will increase, necessitating close monitoring of U.S. tariff policies and changes in geopolitical risks [1] - If trade tensions escalate or geopolitical conflicts intensify, COMEX gold could rise to around $3,450 per ounce, while silver may show stronger elasticity due to its industrial properties and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Glass and Silicon Industry Insights - The decline in glass, polysilicon, and industrial silicon prices is attributed to high inventory levels among production companies, leading to significant pressure to reduce prices for sales [1] - The glass industry is experiencing both maintenance and production resumption, with sufficient potential supply capacity that could trigger more production if industry profits improve [1] - Industrial silicon prices have reached new lows, with supply continuing to grow despite the price decline, as production costs in the southwestern region decrease [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - On the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares saw all major indices rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke upward on May 6 and has since oscillated within the 3,300 to 3,400 point range, facing upward moving average pressure for major indices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon intensifies during the wet season, and it maintains a downward trend. The polysilicon market is in a bottom - capacity - reduction cycle, and the fundamentals of both industries are currently weak [1][3] - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure remains due to the expected resumption of production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from downstream polysilicon is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is marginally stabilizing, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy is stable. The inventory shows no obvious signs of reduction, so it should be treated bearishly [2][4] - For polysilicon, the production has bottomed out and stabilized, with some resumption of production expected in the southwest. The terminal installation is marginally weakening, and inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to operate within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply - side - The spot price of East China non - oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In May, the industrial silicon output dropped to 290,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April. Xinjiang reduced production by about 10,000 tons. In the southwest, Sichuan has resumed production to about 15,000 tons, and Yunnan is still operating at a low level, with expected increased operation in June. Some Xinjiang manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production again, and the supply - side pressure persists [2] Downstream Demand - side - Polysilicon: In April, the polysilicon output stabilized at 95,000 tons. As the photovoltaic rush - installation tide nears its end, the demand for polysilicon in the industrial chain is expected to decline, and there is a possibility of further production cuts, leading to a marginal weakening of the demand for industrial silicon [2] - Organic silicon: Monomer manufacturers have initiated joint production cuts. Recently, the DMC inventory has significantly decreased, the DMC price has stabilized and rebounded, and the production - cut effect is evident. The demand for industrial silicon shows marginal signs of stabilization [2] - Alloy silicon: The price is stable, but the consumption is low and cannot support the market. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory increased by 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 589,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply - side - The production cuts of polysilicon have basically been priced in, and the market has returned to fundamental logic. In April, the polysilicon output slightly dropped to 95,000 tons. Currently, polysilicon manufacturers are still producing according to quotas. With the weakening downstream demand expectation, the output will not fluctuate significantly. As the southwest wet season approaches, some manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production, but limited by the polysilicon price, the output is expected to grow slowly [3] Downstream Demand - side - Silicon wafers: There is a trend of production cuts. Currently, they are mainly digesting polysilicon inventory. The silicon wafer price has slightly weakened, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly [3] - Solar cells and modules: The production schedules have also decreased. The rush - installation period has ended. With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies, the photovoltaic industry will accelerate reshuffling, and the demand for polysilicon will decline significantly [3] Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 250,000 tons, and the entire industrial - chain inventory is equivalent to nearly 500,000 tons. The inventory - reduction pressure is high [3]