Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views - The improvement of tariff policies has led to positive market sentiment, with glass, soda ash, and ferrous alloys showing rebounds [1][3] - Glass and soda ash markets face challenges in supply - demand balance, while ferrous alloys are affected by factors such as tariff policies, industry profits, and raw material costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Product Glass - Market: The glass futures market showed a strong - side oscillation, while the spot market had general transactions with manufacturers offering discounts [1] - Supply - demand: Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real estate and deep - processing industries, inventory has increased significantly, and prices lack upward momentum. Enterprises may be more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory during the high - temperature and rainy season [1] Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash futures market oscillated upwards with a significant increase in trading volume, and the spot market was stable with flexible transaction prices [1] - Supply - demand: Soda ash production has declined due to increased alkali plant maintenance but remains in a loose state. The growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large [1] Silicomanganese - Market: After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, the market sentiment improved, and the silicomanganese futures rebounded slightly. The spot market was fair, with some factories reducing production for maintenance. The northern market price was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Silicomanganese production has continued to decline due to industry profits and is at a low level over the years. Iron - making water production remains high, providing demand resilience. High inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices, but low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs [3] Ferrosilicon - Market: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded slightly following the black - metal sector, while the spot market was weak with cautious operations. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production area was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level due to corporate losses. High iron - making water production maintains demand resilience, and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while downstream enterprise inventories are low. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level but declining, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is declining but still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1345 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1345 yuan/ton, and the basis is 0 yuan. The futures are at par with the spot. It is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1701300 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash, and progress has been made in Sino - US tariff negotiations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - alkali downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1291 | 1345 | 4.18% | | Low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1325 | 1345 | 1.51% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | 34 | 0 | - 100.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - alkali in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - alkali in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - **Weekly Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded [16]. - **Weekly Output**: The weekly output of soda ash is 740700 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 407900 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 55.07% [21][24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the output has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total domestic inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1701300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 872200 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1325元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为7元，期货贴 水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.13万吨，较前一周增加1.74%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美关 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 13, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 12, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded after hitting a bottom, with a closing price of 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and an increase in positions of 11,751 lots. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in Central China remained unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash production continued to rise, and demand increased. However, the supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is becoming more significant. New production capacity will be put into operation, further increasing supply pressure [8]. - The supply side of the glass market is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Trading Data on May 12**: The SA505 contract opened at 1,276 yuan/ton, closed at 1,291 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.69%, with a position of 0.31 million lots, a decrease of 796 lots. The SA509 contract opened at 1,299 yuan/ton, closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 123.31 million lots, an increase of 11,751 lots. The FG505 contract opened at 1,044 yuan/ton, closed at 1,047 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 0.53 million lots, a decrease of 822 lots. The FG509 contract opened at 1,034 yuan/ton, closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.28%, with a position of 133.57 million lots, a decrease of 2,299 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The weekly production of soda ash in China reached 757,000 tons in the week of May 8, near the highest level this year, and the weekly operating load rate remained at 90%. As of May 8, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash in China remained at 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is significant. Although some production line maintenance plans may have an impact on the supply rhythm in May, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation [8]. - **Glass Market**: The supply side is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term due to cost and capacity limitations. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Industry News - The market price of baking soda in Henan is stable. Jinshan's baking soda plant is under maintenance, and downstream users maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. The mainstream ex-factory price of food-grade baking soda is estimated at 1,200 - 1,260 yuan/ton [10]. - In May 2025, the weighted order days of domestic soda ash manufacturers' sample enterprises were 14.6 days, basically flat month-on-month. The operating load of the soda ash industry decreased in May, and the supply of goods decreased, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was not high, so new orders from soda ash manufacturers were average [10]. - Based on the period from 10:00 to 14:00 on the day, the average market price of 5mm large float glass in Shahe decreased by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared with the previous working day, with an average price of 14.77 yuan/square meter; the average price of 4.4mm small float glass decreased by 0.32 yuan/square meter, with an average price of 12.69 yuan/square meter. The Shahe float glass market continued to weaken over the weekend, and the futures price remained sluggish, with the market price center further moving down. Some spot-futures traders' shipments improved. The market basically stabilized today, and traders' selling prices were flexible [10]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month-on-month, and up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic automobile sales were 2.073 million units, down 13.9% month-on-month and up 11.7% year-on-year; automobile exports were 517,000 units, up 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has improved with the Sino - US talks making progress and the NDRC improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and planning to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. For glass, on the supply side, the profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil has slightly increased due to falling raw material costs, and production remains stable. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and enterprise inventories have increased. The futures price is approaching the production cost, so cost support may work in the short term. For纯碱, the supply is decreasing slightly with some equipment maintenance, and downstream demand is lukewarm with more wait - and - see sentiment and small - scale destocking. It is recommended to temporarily observe both the 2509 contracts of纯碱 and glass [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the 纯碱 main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1045 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The 纯碱 main contract's open interest is 1233186 lots, up 11751 lots; the glass main contract's open interest is 1335775 lots, down 2299 lots. The net position of the top 20 in 纯碱 is - 197814, up 1356; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 146540, up 43116. The 纯碱 exchange warehouse receipts are 3106 tons, down 237 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2380 tons, up 115 tons. The 9 - 1 spread of 纯碱 is 13 yuan, up 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 41 yuan, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy 纯碱 is 1325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Central China heavy 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light 纯碱 is 1335 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 纯碱 basis is 7 yuan, up 2 yuan; the glass basis is 71 yuan, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The 纯碱 plant operating rate is 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; the float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, down 3. The 纯碱 enterprise inventory is 170.07 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the glass enterprise inventory is 67560000 weight boxes, up 2571000 weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 129964600 square meters, up 63824600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 130602700 square meters, up 42962700 square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank broadens the use scope of re - loans for affordable housing. There are housing purchase subsidies in Shanghai Yangpu, housing development plans in Beijing, and support for housing provident fund loans in Beijing. In April, the second - hand housing transactions in Dongguan increased by 36% year - on - year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy. The average rent of 50 cities in April decreased slightly month - on - month. In April, the contracted sales amount of China Merchants Shekou was 14.764 billion yuan. In April, about 71.7 billion yuan of the newly issued 176.3 billion yuan special bonds were invested in the real - estate related fields. From January to April, the total transaction amount of the national foreclosed housing market was 83.14 billion yuan. Shanghai released the list of the fifth batch of residential land to be transferred this year. In April, the contract sales amount of Jianye Real Estate was 600 million yuan, down 20.2% year - on - year. As of April 30, 2025, the contract sales amount of Shimao Group in four months was about 9.07 billion yuan. In April, the contracted area of Shoukai Co., Ltd. was 108400 square meters, down 24.92% month - on - month [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on defensive strategies and specific sectors such as compound fertilizers and domestic substitutes [2]. Core Insights - The chemical market has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.07% [10]. - Key themes in the market include strong performance in military and robotics materials, while companies with poor Q1 results are under pressure [1]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and other countries, affecting trade dynamics and inventory levels in the US [1]. - AI demand is robust, with leading companies like AMD reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a strong market for AI-related products [2]. - OPEC's decision to increase production raises questions about the sustainability of oil prices, with mixed signals from supply and demand factors [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $62.05 per barrel, down 2.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $59.04 per barrel, down 1% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector lagged [10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included fluorochemicals (5.02% increase), while coal chemicals saw a slight decline [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in production rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 44.8%, down 11.5% week-on-week [27]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is expected to improve due to reduced supply and increased demand from the beverage industry [28]. - The dye market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite weak demand from the textile industry [30]. Key Events - Significant diplomatic meetings are scheduled, including high-level economic dialogues between China and the US, which may influence trade policies [3]. - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about compliance among member countries [3]. Price Movements - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market [26][29]. - Specific products like DAP and titanium dioxide are experiencing price adjustments due to supply and demand dynamics [31][32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on sectors with defensive characteristics and potential for growth amid market volatility [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The energy price center is expected to decline year-on-year in 2024, but terminal demand remains weak, leading to a bottoming out of chemical price spreads. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is projected to be $80.93 per barrel, down 2% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, oil prices stabilized, and post-holiday terminal replenishment demand improved, leading to a recovery in basic chemical profitability. The report highlights a "V"-shaped bottom reversal in market conditions [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while terminal demand was weak in 2024, certain sectors like chlor-alkali, compound fertilizers, and nylon saw significant performance improvements [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a "W"-shaped trend in 2024, with construction projects peaking and then declining. The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 was 2.81% higher year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 2.68% [2][3][36]. - In Q1 2025, the chemical sector's revenue reached 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 9% to 32.8 billion yuan [2][3][41]. 2. Sector Performance - The report identifies specific sectors with improved profitability in Q1 2025, including fluorochemicals, food and feed additives, pesticides, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers [2][3]. - The report notes that the overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry is 49.3%, indicating a historical low, and highlights a significant slowdown in capital expenditure growth [2][3][43]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical companies with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, as well as specific sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [2][3][4]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in semiconductor materials and panel materials, emphasizing companies with low valuations and strong performance potential [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract SA2509 closing 3.48% lower than the previous week at 1,305 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also decreased. Supply is expected to decline, but demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, and inventory is at a historical high. Overall, the soda ash supply is high and demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,305 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and production profit has rebounded. The expected output next week is 680,000 tons, with an operating rate of about 80%, showing a downward trend in supply [2]. - Downstream demand from float and photovoltaic glass is average, with rigid demand replenishment and low raw material reserve intention. As of May 8, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7013 million tons, up 1.74% from the previous week, remaining at a historical high [2]. Impact Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,352 | 1,320 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1,305 | 1,325 | 20 | | Change Rate | - 3.48% | 0.38% | - 162.50% | [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 29.60 yuan/ton, at a low level in the same period [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.74%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output was 740,700 tons, including 407,900 tons of heavy soda ash, with output falling from a historical high [20][22]. - The production rate of heavy soda ash was 55.07% [24]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity planned in each year. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 96.07% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.24% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [31]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 91,000 tons, and production stabilized [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7013 million tons, including 872,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a high level in the same period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [38].