Core Insights - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, with silver and gold prices reaching historical highs [1][3][12]. Group 1: Silver Market - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently priced at $74.37 per ounce, with a peak above $75 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 4.5% [1]. - The silver market is experiencing severe physical squeeze, with the one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. rates dropping to -7.18%, indicating extreme tightness in the physical market [12]. - Concerns over potential tariffs or trade restrictions related to key mineral imports are exacerbating hoarding behavior among investors [12]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have steadily recovered, trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,502.46, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, setting a new historical high [3]. - Geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [14]. - Strong inflows into gold ETFs continue, with global holdings increasing monthly, except for May, and the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, seeing a year-to-date increase of over 20% in holdings [14]. Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market - Both platinum and palladium rebounded sharply after a previous day of adjustment, with spot platinum rising over 5% [6][15]. - The rebound is supported by ongoing supply tightness and resilient demand from automotive catalysts, attracting buyers back into the market [15].

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11% [1] - The lithium carbonate futures broke through the 130,000 yuan per ton mark, with a daily increase of 8% [2][11] - The commercial aerospace and precious metals sectors remained active, while the CPO concept saw significant declines [1] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector continued to strengthen, with companies like Fengyuan Co. and Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [5] - The photovoltaic sector saw initial gains, with Yijing Optoelectronics hitting the daily limit and Jun Da shares rising over 8% [2] - The commercial aerospace concept maintained strong momentum, with Shenjian Co. achieving seven consecutive trading limit increases [3] Futures Market - The domestic commodity futures market opened mostly higher, with international copper up 2.89% and fuel up 1.50% [2] - Precious metals futures saw collective increases, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit and palladium rising over 9% [2][11] - Government bond futures opened with mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.01% and the 5-year contract up 0.02% [4][5] Currency Exchange - The RMB against the USD middle rate was adjusted up by 34 points to 7.0358, marking a new high since September 30, 2024 [9]

方正证券指出，家电巨头布局AI眼镜，旨在凭借其在显示技术、供应链与精密制造上的深厚积累，切入这一千亿级潜在市场。其核心逻辑是抢占 以光学模组和芯片为价值高地的下一代硬件入口，从品牌、代工到核心光机进行全链条卡位。 AI眼镜潜在市场规模大。首先，消费者有对具备 AI 功能产品的需求，成熟消费市场追求"情感价值外化"，发展中市场需要"生产力与工具内 化"， 而 AI+AR 眼镜是 AI 的完美载体，可以基于声音视觉全天候感知。当前，技 术突破下 AI 眼镜快速放量。第一，端侧中小模型普及，适配 低算力和高隐 私场景。第二，可穿戴设备芯片算力提升，垂类小模型实现自然交互。全球 每年传统眼镜销量约 23 亿副，剔除墨镜 8.5 亿副， 其他眼镜 14.5 亿副。 AI 眼镜渗透率若达到 14.5 亿副眼镜的 10%，全球出货量有望达到 1.45 亿 副，市场规模超千亿人民币。 AI 眼镜产品仍快速迭代，产业链价值集中在光学、芯片和 OS 系统部分。随着软硬件技术的提升和内容的丰富，AI 眼镜会在内容和交互体验上 有更大 的提升。当前，AI 眼镜的功能向以下四个方向演进：硬件小型化与性能提升、AI 驱动的交互升级、生态 ...

在将基金经理薪酬与长期业绩直接捆绑的新规压力下，如何最大化跑赢市场的概率，同时最小化薪酬下调的风险，已成为公募行业的核心议题。 12月25日，一份来自浙商证券策略专题研究团队的最新研究报告，通过对历史数据的深度回测，为基金经理们提供了一套清晰的"打法"：高度分 散持仓、扩大管理规模、保持团队稳定以及策略性地变更业绩基准，是穿越周期、适应新规则的关键。 根据这份报告，新的绩效考核体系建立了"阶梯化薪酬调整机制"，将基金经理的薪酬与其管理的基金过去三年滚动业绩直接挂钩。该机制明确， 若基金"过去三年产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超过10个百分点且基金利润率为负的，其绩效薪酬应当较上一年明显下降，降幅不得少于30%"。 这一硬性约束意味着，基金经理不仅要追求相对收益，还必须严密控制下行风险，尤其是避免"显著跑输"基准。浙商证券分析师廖静池、王大霁 和高旗胜在报告中指出，这一变化正深刻影响着基金的投资策略。报告通过对2022年至2025年普通股票型基金的模拟回测发现，传统的投资模式 面临挑战，而一些特定的基金特征则显示出更强的生存能力。 | 超额收益 | 绝对收益 | 薪酬调整 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

对于市场而言，拉尼娜的回归意味着新一轮市场不确定性的开始。根据再保险经纪及数据分析公司Aon 的数据，在最近的几个拉尼娜年份，其引发的全球经济损失在2580亿美元至3290亿美元之间。极端天气 正成为推高经济损失和影响保险、农业及能源行业决策的越来越重要的因素。 新一轮拉尼娜现象正在形成，这是过去六年中的第五次。 近期，亚洲多发的洪水和美国多地提早到来的暴雪，正成为拉尼娜现象回归的信号。这一太平洋水域的 周期性降温现象，将扰乱全球天气系统，对农业、能源市场和供应链构成显著风险。 目前，市场正密切关注其对全球主要农作物产量的潜在打击，以及对北半球冬季能源需求的提振作用。 尽管气象学家预测本轮拉尼娜强度较弱且可能即将见顶，但其影响预计将持续数月，为大宗商品价格走 势增添变数。 拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象，并伴有热带大气环流的变化， 包括风、气压和降雨形态变化。 极端天气频发，经济损失巨大 拉尼娜现象的影响已经显现。据彭博汇编的数据，11月至12月，越南和泰国的洪水已导致至少500人死 亡，造成的经济损失超过160亿美元。世界天气归因组织（World Weather Attrib ...

Core Insights - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, indicated by a key interest rate metric showing extreme tightness in silver spot supply [1][6] - The one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. interest rates has plummeted to -7.18%, suggesting traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate physical silver over future delivery [1][3] - This inversion indicates a significant shift in market behavior, with investors seeking physical delivery rather than holding paper contracts, leading to a "run" on the London spot silver market [1][6] Group 1 - The negative one-year silver swap rate indicates that the demand for immediate physical silver is outpacing supply, creating upward pressure on silver prices [1][3] - Current spot silver prices have surpassed $70 and continue to reach new highs, reflecting ongoing market tension [3] - The disparity between spot and forward prices is causing buyers to demand physical delivery, putting pressure on the paper silver system [6] Group 2 - The London market is under significant strain due to the high leverage of paper silver certificates, which far exceed the available physical silver inventory [7] - This leverage poses a risk of a "margin call" scenario if demand for physical extraction trends upward, potentially leading to a rapid depletion of physical stocks [7] - Price discrepancies between global markets, particularly between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the New York Commodity Exchange, are incentivizing traders to move silver from London to Shanghai, further straining London’s physical inventory [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. military action against Nigeria is framed as a counter-terrorism effort but is deeply intertwined with economic interests, particularly in energy and strategic minerals [1][2] - The timing of the airstrikes coincides with Nigeria's Dangote refinery nearing full operational capacity, which poses a threat to U.S. oil export interests [2] - The U.S. has historically been a major supplier of refined oil to Nigeria, with exports valued at approximately $4.2 billion in 2023, making the protection of these interests a key motive behind the military action [2] Group 2 - Nigeria is rich in rare earth minerals and critical metals, essential for electric vehicles and U.S. defense technology, making it a strategic target for U.S. interests [3] - Following the military threats, Nigeria's sovereign bonds experienced a significant drop, indicating increased market volatility and risk perception [3] - The military actions are expected to raise Nigeria's sovereign risk premium, leading to higher financing costs and potential capital flight, which could adversely affect non-oil service sector growth [3]

Group 1 - The precious metals market continues its strong upward trend after Christmas, with silver reaching an all-time high and gold approaching its historical peak [1][4] - Silver prices surged by 2.2% to $73.44 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive day of increases, while gold is nearing its historical high of $4525 [1][4] - Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have heightened demand for precious metals as a safe haven, compounded by the U.S. blockade on oil transport vessels [1][4] Group 2 - Economist Jim Rickards predicts that gold could reach $10,000 and silver could hit $200 by 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and stagnant supply [7][8] - Institutional investor demand, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds, is expected to further drive up prices, influenced by geopolitical factors such as the attempt to seize Russian assets [7][8] - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the physical delivery market, with a significant disparity between paper silver and physical silver [7][8]

人工智能带来的电力供应短缺推动美股电力板块今年全线上涨，但随着估值已反映大部分乐观预期，投资者明年转向关注企业实际执行能力。 今年美国电力板块迎来罕见的全面上涨，从清洁能源到煤炭、从成熟技术到投机性项目均大幅攀升，核心驱动因素是人工智能数据中心带来的供 电缺口。 美股可再生能源ETF年度涨幅达50%-60%，核电、天然气设备制造商股价翻倍，甚至燃料电池公司股价飙升三倍，煤炭股也上涨约50%。据摩根 大通股票分析师Mark Strouse表示： 2025年仍处于周期早期，投资者只需获得AI敞口即可。但到2026年，我们需要看到实际交易公告和订单积累。 铀矿商Cameco今年上涨约80%，核电站运营商Constellation Energy涨幅约60%，甚至投机性的小型模块化反应堆股票Oklo今年涨幅超过两倍。特朗 普政府加速核能应用的行政命令为该板块提供了额外动力。 设备制造商同样表现强劲。天然气涡轮机制造商GE Vernova股价翻倍，长期积压的订单带动了对更易获得但价格更高的小型电力设备的需求。 生产小型涡轮机的工程机械制造商Caterpillar和发动机制造商Cummins分别上涨约60%和50%。燃料电 ...

美国经济正在呈现一种显著的结构性分化：在人工智能热潮和利润飙升的推动下，美国大型企业的股价 屡创新高，业绩表现强劲；而与之形成鲜明对比的是，众多小型企业因难以抵御经济逆风，正深陷经营 困境。 这种企业端"冰火两重天"的局面，如实折射并加剧了美国高收入与低收入人群之间日益扩大的财富鸿 沟。 最新就业数据显示，这种分化已在劳动力市场引发剧烈震荡。据薪资处理机构ADP数据，员工人数少于 50人的私营企业在过去六个月中持续裁员，仅11月单月就削减了12万个工作岗位。 这一趋势与中型企业、特别是持续增加就业岗位的大型企业形成了鲜明反差，凸显了小型企业在当前宏 观环境下的脆弱性。 市场表现进一步印证了这一裂痕。据LSEG统计，标普500指数成分股中的大型上市公司第三季度净利润 较上年同期增长12.9%，像亚马逊和英伟达这样资本雄厚的巨头普遍经历了丰收的一年。相比之下，受 持续通胀、消费者支出谨慎以及关税压力的影响，小型企业盈利能力正在减弱，迫使其实施缩减开支计 划。 Homebase的数据同样呼应了这一趋势，该公司发现11月劳动力参与率和工时指标均出现三年来最大降 幅，娱乐和酒店业的收缩尤为剧烈。 结构性劣势与关税冲击 ...