Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic and international crude oil futures have entered a "volatile mode," with significant daily price swings but an overall upward trend driven by geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The primary driver of recent oil price movements is the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, which have been marked by significant volatility [1][2]. - Events such as the U.S. military shooting down an Iranian drone have heightened tensions and contributed to oil price increases, while subsequent news of negotiations resuming has led to price corrections [2]. - Other geopolitical factors, including the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the U.S.-India trade agreement, are also influencing global oil market dynamics [2]. Supply Side Changes - A historic winter storm in North America recently caused a temporary drop in U.S. crude oil production by approximately 2 million barrels per day due to refinery shutdowns [3]. - Kazakhstan's oil production and export levels have also fallen below market expectations in the past two months, contributing to short-term supply relief [3]. - However, as weather conditions improve, U.S. oil production is expected to recover, potentially leading to renewed supply surplus pressures in the market [3]. Market Outlook - High volatility in the oil market is expected to persist, particularly influenced by geopolitical developments leading up to and following the Chinese New Year [4]. - The overall market is characterized by a supply surplus, with global oil inventories on the rise, suggesting a continued loose supply environment [4]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as any escalation in geopolitical tensions could lead to short-term price spikes, but such increases may not be sustainable [4].

早上好！ 金银开盘延续下跌，截至发稿，现货白银失守67美元/盎司，日内跌5.26%；纽约期银失守67美元/盎司，日内跌12.98%；现货黄金失守4740美元/盎司，日 内跌0.87%；纽约期金失守4760美元/盎司，日内跌2.73%。 而在昨夜今晨，国际市场又经历了一个"不眠之夜"。 消息面上，芝商所（CME）将其COMEX 5000白银期货的初始保证金从15%上调至18%；将其COMEX 100黄金期货的初始保证金从8%上调至9%。 其次，截至收盘，美股三大指数收盘普跌，道指跌1.2%，纳指跌1.57%，标普跌1.23%。个股方面，微软跌近5%，亚马逊跌超4%，特斯拉跌超2%，礼来 跌超7%。 最后，比特币大跌，一度跌11%，报64944美元，抹掉特朗普胜选以来的全部涨幅，创2024年10月以来最低。杠杆押注解除及整体市场动荡加剧抛售，特 朗普胜选引发的那一波加密货币投机行情所带来的涨幅已全部抹掉。这一轮暴跌已抹掉比特币近一半的价值，而且还扩散至其他代币、相关交易所交易基 金（ETF），以及Strategy Inc.等持有大量比特币的公司。 然而，在一片"哀嚎"之中，中国资产却录得上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is experiencing robust growth, with the total number of effective clients reaching 2.78 million by the end of 2025, an 11% increase from the previous year, and 940,000 new clients opened [1] - The total funds in the futures market are projected to reach approximately 2.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a 32% increase from 2024, with client equity at 2 trillion yuan, up 31% [1] - The market is seeing a significant rise in medium to long-term funds, with new accounts increasing by 12%, indicating a positive shift in client structure [1] Market Dynamics - The growth in effective clients is attributed to three main factors: increased market demand, supportive policies, and enhanced industry service capabilities [2] - The volatility in commodity prices has heightened the need for risk management, making futures contracts essential for businesses facing operational uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [2] - The implementation of the Futures and Derivatives Law provides legal assurance for industry clients, while collaborative initiatives between exchanges and futures companies enhance the capacity of businesses to utilize futures [2] Participant Diversity - The futures market is becoming more active and diverse, with a notable increase in special legal entity clients using index futures for risk hedging [3] - Precious metals and industrial metals are gaining traction among institutional investors due to their low correlation with traditional assets, making them attractive for asset allocation [3] - The industry is encouraged to strengthen customer service systems, focusing on tailored hedging solutions and risk management training for businesses, while promoting rational participation from individual and institutional investors [3]

（文章来源：期货日报） "在货币属性层面，全球去美元化进程持续加速。"刘旭峰表示，2022年美国将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT系统 后，各国纷纷调整外汇储备结构，美元在全球央行外汇储备中的占比持续下滑，而黄金作为避险资产的 吸引力则显著提升。各国央行的购金行为也印证了这一趋势。尽管2025年购金节奏有所放缓，但全球央 行通过增持黄金对冲货币信用风险的需求仍在，2026年这一支撑逻辑将延续。 展望后市，刘旭峰认为，短线偏弱、中长线看涨。短线需警惕流动性风险发酵。中长线则聚焦二季度尤 其是5月前后，如果美联储降息节奏加快，贵金属价格有望企稳回升，"牛市"行情尚未终结。对比2000 —2011年在美元弱化背景下黄金价格近十倍的涨幅，当前在去美元化的逻辑下，贵金属价格仍有较大上 行空间。 针对黄金与白银走势差异的问题，刘旭峰解释称，白银的商品属性更强，受供需面突发性消息影响更 大，因此波动率远超黄金。中长期来看，白银同样受益于战略收储、产业需求增长及美联储货币宽松周 期，二季度后仍有企稳向上的机会。 最后，刘旭峰提醒投资者防范流动性风险，需关注市场资金量、借贷利差及资产联动走势。期货与期权 的组合使用可提升操作灵活性。在高波 ...

今日，贵金属和有色金属期货价格波动较大，上期所及上期能源于下午收盘后发布通知，调整铜等期货相关合约风控参数。 上期所通知称，自2026年2月9日收盘结算时起，铜、铝、铅、锌、氧化铝期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%；铸造铝合金、线材、不锈钢期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为8%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 9%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%；镍、锡期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为12%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%，一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为14%；黄金期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为19%；白银 期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为20%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为21%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为22%。如遇《上海期货交易所风险控 制管理办法》第十三条规定情况，则在上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金比例基础上调整。关于涨跌停板和交易保证金的其他事项按《上海期货交易所风险 控制管理办法》及相关业务规则执行。 上期能源通知称，自2026年2月 ...

人民财讯2月5日电，2月5日，市场传出一则"小作文"，大体意思是"中财期货在价格暴跌前大规模做 空，浮盈超过36亿元"，引发了大家的关注。进入2月，随着白银价格的大幅回调，中财期货席位持卖单 量逐步减少。数据显示，截至2月5日收盘，该公司席位在白银期货部分合约上的持卖单量仍处于全市场 前列。值得一提的是，中财期货席位上的上述持仓均属于代客持仓，即中财期货经纪业务客户的整体持 仓。因此，前述"小作文"所谓的"中财期货做空盈利"的说法并不准确。中财期货相关负责人也表示，交 易所公布的中财期货席位在白银期货合约上的持仓数据及其变化，反映的是公司客户在白银期货上的头 寸变动。 （文章来源：期货日报） ...

近期，白银市场经历一轮暴涨暴跌行情。2月5日，市场传出一则"小作文"，大体意思是"中财期货在价 格暴跌前大规模做空，浮盈超过36亿元"，引发了大家的关注。那么，这一说法是否属实？期货日报记 者就此查阅了交易所的相关持仓数据，并致电了中财期货。 持仓数据变化 从交易所公布的持仓数据来看，在本轮白银价格波动行情中，中财期货席位在白银期货上的持仓变化确 有值得关注之处。今年1月26日，该公司席位在白银期货主力合约AG2604上的卖单量为3501手，排名全 市场第20位；而在远月合约AG2608上持有2969手卖单，位列全市场第2位。 | 6 | 中财期货 | 6544 | -443 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (代客) | | | 上图为1月26日中财期货（代客）席位AG2604合约持卖单量情况 上图为1月26日中财期货（代客）席位AG2608合约持卖单量情况 进入2月，随着白银价格的大幅回调，中财期货席位持卖单量逐步减少。数据显示，2月3日，该公司席 位在AG2608、AG2610、AG2612等合约上的持卖单量下降。2月4日，该公司席位在主力合约AG2604上 的持卖单量也有 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a sudden drop in early trading on February 5, with domestic gold futures falling over 3% to a low of 1077.02 CNY per gram and silver futures dropping over 18% to a low of 18500 CNY per kilogram [1] - On the international front, COMEX gold futures fell over 3% to a low of 4805 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped over 13% to a low of 73.415 USD per ounce [2] - The domestic A-share precious metals sector saw significant declines, with companies like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit down, and Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 14% at one point [6] Group 2 - The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down for the fourth consecutive day, with the latest premium rate at 37.13% [4] - Multiple domestic gold and jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of gold jewelry, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1558 CNY per gram, down 42 CNY from the previous day [8]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in pricing between electrolytic aluminum and its primary raw material, alumina, driven by differing supply constraints and demand outlooks [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolytic aluminum prices have risen by 20% over the past year, while alumina prices have fallen by 25%, highlighting a stark contrast in market dynamics [1][2] - The theoretical profit for alumina has decreased by 111%, whereas electrolytic aluminum's theoretical profit has increased by 264% [1][2] - The price divergence is attributed to the rigid supply constraints on electrolytic aluminum, which is capped at a production capacity of 45 million tons, with a utilization rate of 97% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is bolstered by sectors such as AI, energy storage, and electric vehicles, creating a favorable outlook for its pricing [2][3] - In contrast, alumina faces oversupply, with a projected utilization rate of less than 80% by 2025, and new production capacity being added, particularly in Guangxi [2][4] - The influx of low-cost alumina from overseas, particularly from Indonesia and India, is exacerbating supply pressures, leading to record-high social inventories [2][4] Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by demand fluctuations rather than raw material costs, marking a shift from a cost-driven pricing model to one governed by supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Alumina, lacking pricing power, follows cost changes and is currently under pressure due to a significant drop in production costs, necessitating a search for new lower price equilibrium [4][5] - The contrasting profit dynamics between the two segments illustrate a market mechanism where profits are shifting from upstream alumina to downstream electrolytic aluminum [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term resolution of the price divergence is unlikely unless there is significant production reduction in the alumina sector, which has not yet occurred on a large scale [5] - Long-term improvement in the pricing relationship will depend on the alumina industry's ability to optimize its supply-demand balance and return to healthier profit levels [5]

在同一条产业链上，电解铝与氧化铝的境遇却大相径庭。自去年12月下旬起，沪铝价格重心显著上移， 2026年1月下旬一度突破历史新高；作为上游原材料的氧化铝，其价格在短暂反弹后再度疲软，现货价 格持续走低，行业利润被压缩至成本线以下。 在价格背离的情况下，产业链内部的利润分配格局愈发明朗，利润正加速向电解铝环节聚拢。为何电解 铝利润不断攀升，氧化铝价格却始终涨不起来？多位市场专家对这一反差背后的真相展开了深入剖析。 从产业运行的直观结果看，电解铝是本轮上涨行情中最为受益的环节。新湖期货有色金属分析师孙匡文 表示，去年12月下旬以来，铝价由此前的震荡上行转为加速拉升，沪铝期货主力合约接连突破多个整数 关口，今年1月一度创历史新高26185元/吨。尽管随后价格出现快速回调，但阶段性高位已显著抬升了 电解铝行业的盈利水平。 紫金天风期货金属分析师陈晶敏告诉期货日报记者，上游电解铝行业的盈利状况持续走高，主要得益于 沪铝期货价格重心的抬升。虽然下游接货积极性不高导致现货基差走弱，但上涨的盘面价格仍对铝厂利 润形成支撑，同时成本端氧化铝现货价格回落，进一步扩大了电解铝的生产利润。 事实上，在铝价剧烈波动的过程中，产业基本面 ...