二是各国家和地区陆续出台稳定币监管政策，非银金融板块表现亮眼。稳定币对跨境交易结算具有较高 的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备货币，对一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在A股市场 缺乏热点题材的当下，其成为资金重点流入的板块，但是稳定币作为交易媒介取代美元的道路仍较为遥 远，市场不宜过分追高。 三是中东地缘冲突告一段落，从此前几日黄金等大宗商品的表现来看，市场并未积极计价尾部风险。因 此，停战结果可能并未超过市场预期，对A股影响有限。 从政策面看，中信建投期货金融衍生品分析师孟庆姝表示， 2024年9月24日至今，各项经济、金融相关 政策持续出台，其中较大部分为总量型政策，如《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》《推动公募基金高 质量发展行动方案》等，这类政策对经济、金融领域的改善是长效性、持续性的。目前，靠前发布的此 类政策已完成初步传导，其效果逐步显现，如民营、中小企业利润增速扩大，CPI服务分项增速扩大， 鸿鹄基金投资入市等。 本周A股回升明显，各股指表现偏强，股指期货各品种均有明显涨幅。分析人士认为，国内政策和海外 多因素共同作用推动了A股的本轮上涨。 据孟庆姝介绍，5月初中国人民银行实行"降息降准"， ...

本周的前三个交易日，A股市场连续放量上涨，突破3月份高点，创年内新高。 A股市场的连续上行主要来自非银金融及国防军工板块的推动。非银金融板块的强势受香港券商股的情 绪传导，国泰君安国际成为首家获准在香港提供全面虚拟资产交易服务的中资券商，结合香港特别行政 区《稳定币条例》将于8月1日生效的消息影响，近期活跃的稳定币主题带动金融板块强势领涨。此外， 还有两个因素共同推动了金融板块的强势。 一方面是美联储政策的转向预期。尽管6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，但点阵图显示年内存在降息 两次的基准预期。美联储理事沃勒与副主席鲍曼接连表态支持7月启动降息，引发市场对货币政策转向 的强烈预期。虽然其中隐含着一定的"政治投机"信号，但这也在一定程度上反映了美联储内部对经济前 景的较大分歧。鲍威尔表示美国自身处于有利位置，可以耐心等待更多关于经济走势的明确信号，再决 定是否调整政策立场，观察劳动力市场及通胀数据的疲软与否，来决定提前降息或是推迟降息。目前来 看，7月降息依然为时尚早，但是"鹰鸽参半"的表态强化了市场对"预防性降息"的博弈预期。 另一方面，上市公司半年报披露即将开启，市场进入业绩验证期，公募基金季末调仓行为形成短 ...

"短期来看，市场情绪整体仍维持谨慎状态，风险资产的涨幅相对有限。"赵复初表示，这种谨慎情绪主 要源自对以伊冲突后续发展的不确定性以及对全球经济形势的担忧。然而，如果长期停火能够实现，市 场信心将得到进一步修复。地缘政治风险的降低、能源市场的持续平稳，会减少全球经济增长的不确定 性，为股市上涨提供有力支撑。当然，在长期停火的情形下，全球经济基本面与货币政策走向也将重新 成为影响全球股市的关键因素。 除此之外，张清还提到，两者对风险资产的冲击存在差异。以伊冲突具有高度区域化特征，仅中东股市 遭受大幅回撤，而俄乌冲突导致全球供应链中断，全球股市均出现大幅回撤。 尽管伊朗和以色列在6月24日均宣称接受停火协议，且协议于当地时间6月24日7时生效，然而在生效前 后的5小时内，双方依旧在相互进攻。特朗普公开表示，以色列和伊朗都违反了停火协议，他对两国均 表达了不满，其中对以色列的不满情绪更为强烈。至于以伊冲突能否得到彻底解决，目前尚无确切定 论。 "双方互相指责对方违反协议并发动袭击，这种情况充分凸显了停火协议的脆弱性。以色列和伊朗之间 的冲突或许不会彻底消失，而是可能会以暗战以及小规模冲突的形式持续存在。即便双方能够实 ...

6月22日至6月25日，笔者对阿克苏地区兵团第一师11团、13团、14团，兵团第三师44团、49团、48团、 45团灰枣主产区的100个枣园进行了调研。 通过与枣农沟通及调研发现，今年南疆枣树头茬果受沙尘天气、气温等因素影响，坐果情况不理想。调 研中观察到，部分枣园枣叶附着灰尘，除个别枣园外，多数枣园的红枣个头较小。据枣农介绍，头茬果 因个头较大易裂果，且其坐果会影响后续枣果发育。今年头茬果数量较少，二茬果养分相对充足，但其 对二茬果坐果是否有利仍需验证。因此，枣农在头茬果坐果时通常不会通过喷施坐果药进行保护，这也 使得头茬果在红枣总产量中占比不高。 据了解，头茬果约占总产量的5%，二茬果占30%~35%，三茬果占40%~45%，四茬果占15%~20%。其 中，二茬果与三茬果合计占总产量的70%~80%，是决定红枣总产量的关键。目前各主产区枣园正处于 二茬果坐果期，各地枣园表现存在分化，具体情况如下： 阿克苏地区地处最北部，对其开展调研的时间也最早。调研期间发现，当地许多枣农正在进行环割作 业。阿克苏的枣树花量较多，已坐果的枣果以小丁丁为主。 阿克苏地区枣园较为分散：北部的依希来木其乡坐果时间较晚；市区内的实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the precious metals market, leading to increased volatility in gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the initiation of the "Lion's Roar" operation by Israel on June 13, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3,470 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 800 yuan per gram [1]. - After the conflict escalated, gold prices retreated to a low of $3,300 per ounce, marking a decline of 5%, while Shanghai gold fell to 770 yuan per gram, a decrease of approximately 3.7% [1]. - Silver prices also experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of 9,075 yuan per kilogram during the conflict, but subsequently fell to around 8,700 yuan per kilogram after the ceasefire [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Global gold ETF holdings have been increasing continuously, driven by heightened risk aversion among investors due to the conflict [2]. - In contrast, domestic trading volumes for Shanghai gold and silver have remained relatively subdued, indicating a more cautious and rational approach from local investors [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The conflict has raised concerns about energy production and shipping stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global economic growth and inflation [2][3]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has strengthened during the conflict, with fears of stagflation in developed economies if oil exports are restricted [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly its stance on interest rates, is also influencing gold prices, with potential shifts depending on the economic impact of the conflict [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The immediate impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy supply chains and shipping routes is considered limited, suggesting that gold prices may lack sustained upward momentum in the short term [4]. - However, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts later in the year, there could be a new wave of upward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices, driven by increasing physical demand from central bank purchases over the next 3 to 5 years [4].

实践现状 2021年以来，铁合金行业在淘汰落后产能方面取得了实质性进展，但进一步大幅降碳缺乏关键举措。参 考已完成"碳达峰"国家的实践，政策端约束碳排放量主要有碳税与碳交易两种机制，二者在不同程度上 影响碳排放水平。作为基本碳定价机制，二者本质影响存在差异。 据不完全统计，全球计划实施或已实施碳定价机制的国家和地区中，31个采用碳交易机制，30个采用碳 税机制。征收碳税的代表性国家包括北欧的丹麦、芬兰、挪威、瑞典等。目前全球最大的碳交易市场是 欧盟排放交易体系（EUETS），美国区域温室气体倡议（RGGI）也是较有代表性的碳交易机制。对比 可见，两种方式各有优势。由于增加了碳排放成本，碳税与碳交易均有助于降低碳排放量。 碳税事先确定碳价，市场主体可对减排技术研发、投资形成稳定的收益预期，利于促进创新，但将排放 量是否有效降低的不确定性留给企业——只要碳排放收益覆盖碳税成本，企业就可能持续增加排放。北 欧国家的实践印证了这一点。与不征收情形相比，早期仅征收碳税时，排放量降低了2.8%~4.9%。在丹 麦、芬兰等国施行碳税后，碳排放绝对量并未明显下降，降幅显著小于加入碳交易市场后。 机制对比 碳税的优势与局限 碳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

Group 1 - Israeli military destroyed a building in southern Lebanon, linked to a Hezbollah member who was killed by an Israeli drone a week prior [3] - The building was reportedly used by Hezbollah to observe Israeli forces [3] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may relax sanctions on Iranian oil, while maintaining the maximum pressure policy [5][7] - Trump mentioned that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks next week, with a potential agreement in sight [7] - The core U.S. demand remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons [7] Group 3 - Russian defense ministry reported intercepting and shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in various regions, including 23 in Kursk and 11 in Rostov [8] - Russian air force reportedly dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions in Dnipro region, although the specific date of the video release is unclear [8] - Ukrainian air force reported shooting down 24 drones since the evening of the previous day [10]

Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has announced the addition of new designated warehouses and inspection institutions for log futures, enhancing the service quality for the timber industry [1] - After the additions, the number of designated warehouses for log futures will increase to 8, with a maximum standard warehouse receipt volume of 445,500 cubic meters and a daily shipping speed of 29,700 cubic meters [1] - The expansion aims to improve delivery efficiency and safety, providing better conditions for enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu, the main import and consumption areas for logs [1] Group 2 - Four designated inspection institutions will utilize a "machine + manual" measurement method for log inspection, significantly improving inspection speed and accuracy [2] - The DCE has organized eight simulation delivery sessions across various regions to ensure smooth delivery processes and has encouraged warehouses to standardize and mechanize delivery management [2] - The DCE is also conducting assessments of delivery capabilities and enhancing the functionality of delivery apps to bolster safety and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The log futures market is still in its early stages, and there is room for improvement in market maturity and industry understanding [3] - Timber companies are encouraged to familiarize themselves with futures market rules and engage in hedging and delivery activities to promote high-quality development of the log spot market [3]

Group 1 - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, has led to market fluctuations, but risk assets have rebounded after initial declines [1][2] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, peaked at 22.17 during the conflict, significantly lower than the 52.33 recorded during previous trade tensions [2] - The conflict has resulted in a temporary ceasefire, with both Iran and Israel indicating a reduction in hostilities, which may stabilize market conditions [2] Group 2 - The "see-saw" effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets is evident, with U.S. stocks rebounding due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, while gold and oil prices have retreated from highs [3] - As of June 23, the largest gold ETF, SPDR, held 957.4 tons of gold, approaching its previous high of 959.17 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in gold investment demand [3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. stocks and the dollar may not move in tandem, with potential for both to decline simultaneously, challenging traditional market relationships [3][4] Group 3 - The current weak dollar may not benefit the U.S. economy as it has in the past, due to concerns over U.S. debt and trade policies, which could lead to capital outflows [4] - The weak dollar reflects market apprehension regarding U.S. fiscal policies, and without counteracting measures, it may accompany declines in U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - Concerns over oversupply in the oil market are still present, but geopolitical tensions have caused temporary price spikes [5] - Iran's oil exports are currently at 1.6 million barrels per day, which has been factored into market pricing, limiting its impact on global supply [5] - Historical threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have not materialized due to practical constraints, suggesting that the oil market may stabilize despite geopolitical risks [5] Group 5 - The uncertainty in financial markets since the U.S. tariff increases in April has led to sustained support for gold prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical crises and a weakening dollar [6] - The lack of new catalysts for gold price increases, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, may result in a period of high volatility without significant upward movement [6] - Investors are encouraged to utilize futures and options to hedge risks and capture opportunities in the gold market [6]