早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 摩根大通在此前发布的技术策略报告中表示，金、银、铜等金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。然 而，这并非"牛市"终结。 在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。对 于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其 是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 美国财政部长：预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表 美国财政部长贝森特昨日表示，他预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表，即便是在被提名为美 联储主席的沃什领导下也是如此。 贝森特表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对资产负债表做出决定。沃什将是一位非常独立的美联 储主席。 "至于如何处理资产负债表，将由美联储自行决定。如果他们转向'充足准备金'政策，我不认为他们会 迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以，我认为他们可能会静观其变，至少花一 年的时间来决定该怎么做。"贝森特说。 美联储官员释放重磅信号 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the development of the commodity market in China, emphasizing high-quality economic growth and the optimization of resource allocation in the context of a new development pattern [1][3][4] - Various regions, including Shanghai's Putuo District, are focusing on creating trillion-level commodity trading platforms to enhance regional economic growth and competitiveness [2][3] - The integration of digital technology and financial services is highlighted as essential for industry upgrades, with proposals for building smart platforms that connect various industry stakeholders [9][10] Group 2 - Guangdong's approach to enhancing international competitiveness involves transitioning from policy-based to capability-based and systematic openness, aiming to support medium-sized enterprises in their internationalization efforts [5][7] - The construction of the "Golden Passage" in Yunnan is aimed at addressing logistics bottlenecks and enhancing trade, with significant growth in trade volumes reported [14][15] - The establishment of a comprehensive knowledge framework for the commodity industry is proposed to address systemic challenges and improve operational efficiency, focusing on the integration of digital transformation and financial services [16][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and market dynamics, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 132,920 yuan/ton, down 2.78% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, with significant volatility observed in precious and non-ferrous metals impacting the lithium market [1] - Analysts indicate that the current price adjustments reflect a "expectation-driven—reality correction" cycle, where supply and demand dynamics are central to price movements [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a destocking phase, with a weekly production of 20,744 tons as of February 6, down 825 tons week-on-week, and a weekly inventory of 105,463 tons, reflecting a reduction of 2,019 tons [2] - Despite the price decline, downstream demand remains robust, particularly in energy storage and power batteries, with a notable increase in trading activity as buyers seek to replenish stocks ahead of the holiday [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the lithium carbonate prices may continue to exhibit weak fluctuations in the short term due to uncertain macroeconomic sentiments and regulatory pressures, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [2][3] - The anticipated increase in lithium salt shipments from Chile post-holiday is expected to alleviate some supply constraints, although the overall destocking trend is likely to persist [2]

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Energy Infrastructure - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that on February 7, Russian forces launched an attack using over 400 drones and approximately 40 missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including power grids and substations [1] - The attack caused damage in several regions, including Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Rivne, with ongoing rescue and repair efforts in areas where security conditions allow [1] - Ukraine's nuclear power plants have reduced output, and emergency rolling blackouts are being implemented across the country due to the attacks on key energy facilities [1][3] Group 2: Russian Military Actions - The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military energy and transportation infrastructure, utilizing precision weapons including the "Dagger" hypersonic missile [3] - Ukrainian Air Force reported that from the evening of February 6 to the early morning of February 7, Russian forces launched a significant airstrike involving 39 missiles and 408 drones against critical infrastructure [3] Group 3: Poland's Military Readiness - In response to the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine, Poland has activated its military aviation forces, and ground air defense systems and radar reconnaissance systems are on high alert, with temporary closures of two airports in eastern Poland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CME Group's margin adjustments, effective after the market close on February 6, are seen as an emergency response to extreme market conditions rather than a routine risk control measure, significantly impacting the global commodity market and investor operations [2][3]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments - The initial margin for non-high-risk accounts in gold futures has increased from 8% to 9%, while for high-risk accounts, it has risen from 8.8% to 9.9% [2]. - In silver futures, the initial margin for non-high-risk accounts has been raised from 15% to 18%, and for high-risk accounts, from 16.5% to 19.8% [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Experts believe that the high-frequency margin adjustments will lead to forced liquidations in precious metals and increased volatility, shifting the funding structure towards institutional dominance [3][4]. - The adjustments are a response to extreme price drops in precious metals, with silver experiencing a more than 35% drop on January 30, marking the largest single-day decline in 46 years [3]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The tightening of liquidity due to margin increases is expected to lead to short-term price crashes in precious metals, but mid-term volatility is likely to decrease as leverage is reduced [4]. - As investors focus more on fundamentals, the influence of pure sentiment and momentum trading will diminish, leading to a rational pricing logic for precious metals [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the current state of the precious metals market, highlighting the historical highs in gold prices, significant fluctuations in silver prices, and the transformation of platinum from a "love metal" to an "energy metal" [1] - The precious metals market is at a critical juncture, with rising prices on one side and substantial daily price volatility and investor anxiety on the other [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are now driven by a "fundamental consensus" phase, with dual motivations: the perception of gold as a hard currency against dollar credit risk and the wealth effect from continuous price increases [3] - The demand for silver is supported by real industrial needs, with approximately 70% of silver supply coming from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc, leading to a supply-demand gap due to increasing industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and AI [3] - Platinum's market dynamics are complex, with years of shortage and low above-ground stock, leading to increased leasing rates and a shift towards financialization, as seen in a 127% price increase last year [4] Group 3 - High prices are affecting physical demand differently across metals; gold jewelry demand is suppressed, leading to a shift towards high-value products, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged by over 30% [6] - Platinum is the most sensitive to price changes, with many investors yet to form a consensus on its wealth effect, resulting in a more pronounced suppression of demand at high price levels [6] - Silver, being long undervalued and suddenly in short supply, exhibits a "buy more as prices rise" behavior, with tight supply in the physical market [6] Group 4 - In the automotive sector, the potential for platinum to be replaced by palladium is limited due to narrowing price differentials and the complexities of research and development cycles [7] - The risk of irrational price surges driven by financial speculation poses a threat to the stability of the industry, with companies facing significant margin pressures during rapid price increases [8] - Companies are exploring dynamic risk exposure models to better manage price volatility and improve accounting practices [8] Group 5 - High prices may lead to permanent demand suppression, with industries adapting through technological advancements and material savings [10] - In asset allocation, gold is viewed as a "must-have option," while silver and platinum are considered "enhanced return options" for investors willing to accept higher volatility [10] - Key indicators for price trend assessments include capital flows, market sentiment, inventory structures, and macroeconomic expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. is applying for soybean oil delivery warehouse qualification from Dalian Commodity Exchange to enhance risk management and strengthen its soybean oil business layout [1][2]. Group 1: Application Purpose and Business Planning - The core purpose of the application is to utilize futures tools for hedging operations on oilseed and oil inventory positions, thereby improving risk management in the soybean crushing supply chain [1]. - The company has assessed market supply and demand changes, planning to use futures and spot market interactions to mitigate price volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Operational Preparedness and Infrastructure - The company plans to upgrade its storage hardware, safety management, quality control processes, and futures-spot coordination capabilities to meet the Dalian Commodity Exchange's regulatory standards [2]. - The Yueyang factory will serve as the main facility for the delivery function, equipped with large-scale soybean crushing, oil refining, and packaging capabilities, along with substantial storage and logistics support [1]. Group 3: Business Impact and Profit Planning - The operation of the delivery warehouse is expected to generate new revenue sources such as storage and logistics fees, while also potentially increasing the company's bank credit limits [2]. - The company aims to offer third-party delivery and value-added services in the future, creating new profit growth points [2]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The application for delivery warehouse qualification is a strategic move to build a differentiated competitive advantage, enhancing risk management capabilities and ensuring supply chain stability [3].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the sudden adjustment of the net asset value (NAV) of the Guotou Silver LOF fund by Guotou Ruijin, which occurred without prior notice, leading to significant investor losses and concerns over timely information disclosure [4][5][9] - Guotou Ruijin has established a working group to develop solutions for investors to address their claims through reconciliation, mediation, or arbitration [2] - The valuation adjustment was made to reflect the underlying asset conditions more accurately, using the settlement prices of relevant futures contracts as a basis for valuation [7] Group 2 - The incident highlights the shortcomings in liquidity management of commodity ETFs and LOF products during extreme market volatility, particularly when large redemptions occur close to market close [10] - Industry experts suggest that the lack of a preemptive plan for extreme market fluctuations led to reactive measures by fund managers, which, while aimed at protecting remaining investors, compromised the rights of those who were not informed in advance [10] - Recommendations for investors include selecting larger, more liquid products, adjusting trading strategies to avoid end-of-day volatility, and closely monitoring fund redemption patterns to mitigate risks [11]

Market Overview - Precious metals, including silver and gold, experienced significant declines, with silver prices dropping over 20% in a single day [1] - As of the latest updates, spot silver fell to $67 per ounce, down 5.26%, while gold dropped to $4740 per ounce, down 0.87% [1] - The CME raised initial margin requirements for silver and gold futures, indicating increased market volatility [2] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.57%, and S&P 500 down 1.23% [2] - Notable declines in individual stocks included Microsoft down nearly 5%, Amazon down over 4%, and Eli Lilly down over 7% [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin saw a sharp decline, dropping 11% to $64,944, erasing all gains since Trump's election victory [3] - This downturn affected not only Bitcoin but also other cryptocurrencies and related ETFs, reflecting a broader market sell-off [3] Geopolitical Developments - Ongoing discussions between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi did not yield substantial progress on key issues such as territory and ceasefire [5] - Iran's foreign minister arrived in Oman for nuclear negotiations with the U.S., focusing solely on nuclear issues [5] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [6] - Current rates include a deposit rate of 2.00%, main refinancing rate of 2.15%, and marginal lending rate of 2.40% [6] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have been experiencing high volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [7][8] - Recent events, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and a historic winter storm affecting U.S. oil production, have contributed to market fluctuations [9] - Analysts predict that high volatility in the oil market will continue, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [10]

Core Viewpoint - Rebar prices are expected to remain low in 2026, with main contract prices narrowing to a range of 3100 to 3180 yuan per ton, influenced by weak seasonal demand and a significant price drop in the East China market [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Rebar production has rebounded significantly from low levels, with weekly production reaching 1.9983 million tons as of January 30, marking an increase of 210,500 tons since mid-December [2] - Long-process steel mills have driven the production increase, contributing 1.6762 million tons, up by 164,000 tons from recent lows, while short-process steel mills also saw production rise to 322,100 tons [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, production is expected to gradually decrease, with a focus on the resumption pace of short-process steel mills post-holiday [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - Rebar demand has shown a clear seasonal decline, with weekly apparent consumption at 1.764 million tons, down by 240,400 tons week-on-week and 136,500 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 7.18% [3] - Daily average sales of construction steel by major national traders fell to 83,700 tons, a 14.46% decrease, indicating a significant seasonal drop [3] - Related demand indicators, such as cement and concrete shipments, are also at low levels, reinforcing the weak demand for construction steel [3] Group 3: Inventory and Market Pressure - Rebar inventory has reached a turning point, with total inventory at 4.7553 million tons as of January 30, increasing by 535,000 tons, a rise of 12.68% [4] - The current inventory level is relatively low compared to recent years but remains higher than the same period last year, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 2.696, up by 22.6% year-on-year [4] - The combination of rising supply and weak demand is expected to keep rebar prices under pressure, with significant inventory accumulation anticipated during the holiday period [4]