Core Viewpoint - The surge in A-share listed futures companies' stocks is driven by policy benefits, increased global risk aversion, and industry innovation [1][9] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since June, stocks of futures companies like Hongye Futures and Nanhua Futures have experienced multiple consecutive trading limit increases, with Hongye Futures achieving a 70% price increase in June [1] - Hongye Futures' stock has been on a trading limit for five consecutive days as of June 30, 2023 [1] - Nanhua Futures and Ruida Futures also saw significant stock price increases, with Nanhua Futures and Hongye Futures both exceeding 70% growth, and Ruida Futures over 30% [1] Group 2: Company Announcements - Hongye Futures announced on June 29 that its stock price had deviated significantly over two consecutive trading days, but confirmed no undisclosed major information affecting stock prices [5] - Nanhua Futures and Ruida Futures reported similar stock price deviations over three consecutive trading days, confirming no undisclosed major matters [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of futures company stocks is attributed to increased hedging demand amid rising market uncertainties, driven by changing tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - The futures industry is experiencing a new development cycle due to favorable policies and increasing demand for risk management tools [10][11] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The introduction of new regulations is expected to diversify and integrate futures company operations, enhancing their research capabilities and income structures [11] - The potential launch of foreign exchange futures is anticipated to provide new risk management tools for enterprises, particularly in managing currency risks [12] - Companies that have early established overseas markets are gaining competitive advantages, and there is a call for the industry to expand international operations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of geopolitical factors in the Middle East has led to a significant decline in domestic crude oil futures, which in turn has caused a drop in styrene prices due to reduced cost support. The outlook for the styrene market remains bearish due to increasing supply pressures and weak downstream demand [1][2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel has resulted in a rapid decrease in crude oil premiums, leading to a sharp decline in domestic crude oil futures by 9% [2]. - The escalation of the Middle East conflict previously drove crude oil prices up, with domestic crude oil futures rising by 22% since the conflict began [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic styrene production profitability has improved, with theoretical profits for non-integrated styrene plants rising to 229 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 53 yuan/ton, representing a 30.11% rise [3]. - As of June 20, domestic styrene plant capacity utilization increased to 79.01%, a weekly rise of 5.20 percentage points, with production reaching 36.19 million tons, up 7.04% [3]. - Forecasts indicate that styrene production will continue to grow, with capacity utilization potentially reaching 79.5% and production increasing to 36.5 million tons by late June [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for styrene has weakened, with total consumption from key downstream sectors (EPS, PS, ABS) decreasing to 24.73 million tons, a decline of 0.88% [4]. - Inventory levels for styrene have increased, with total stocks in major regions rising, including a 28.21% increase in Jiangsu port stocks [4].

Group 1 - Since mid-May, the recovery of spot prices for ethylene glycol has improved the operating conditions of domestic production enterprises, with coal-based ethylene glycol producers turning from a loss of 300 yuan/ton to a profit of 125 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 25, domestic ethylene glycol operating load was 62.97%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and up 8.75 percentage points from the low in early May [1] - Domestic ethylene glycol imports increased significantly, with 322.77 million tons imported from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 25.05% [1] Group 2 - The East China ethylene glycol market has been in a destocking phase since mid-April, with port inventory as of June 19 at 531,000 tons, down 28.69% year-on-year [2] - As of June 25, downstream polyester enterprises' operating load was 88.53%, down 4.88 percentage points from the May peak, indicating a decline in production activity [2] - Polyester industry inventory levels are low, with POY, FDY, and DTY stocks at 16.3 days, 19.8 days, and 25.6 days respectively, all lower than the previous year [2] Group 3 - The demand for ethylene glycol is expected to decline due to the seasonal slowdown in the garment weaving industry and insufficient orders in the polyester sector [3] - The recent price increase of ethylene glycol was mainly driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and cost support, but this support is weakening as the situation stabilizes [3] - Increased profits for ethylene glycol enterprises are leading to higher production and supply, suggesting a downward trend in ethylene glycol prices moving forward [3]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - On June 24, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a rebound after a prolonged decline, raising questions about a potential turning point in pricing [1] - The lithium carbonate industry is facing significant operational disruptions, with a near 50% shutdown rate; as of June 19, the weekly operating rate was 48.16%, with the smelting sector at 53.64% [1] - There is a clear division within the industry, where leading smelting companies maintain higher operating rates due to better order conditions, while many smaller firms with less cost advantage have ceased operations for months [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply-demand balance for leading smelting enterprises remains stable or slightly oversupplied, performing better than the overall industry, despite weakening cost support due to falling mineral prices and hedging operations [1] - In the first five months of 2025, lithium iron phosphate battery production surged to 476.03 GWh, a 75.64% year-on-year increase, significantly boosting the operating rate of the lithium iron phosphate industry [2] - However, with the traditional off-season approaching in July and August, battery manufacturers plan to reduce production, while the lithium carbonate sector is expected to maintain high supply levels, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] Group 3: Import Trends and Price Outlook - In May, lithium spodumene imports totaled approximately 605,000 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease of 2.9%, but imports from Australia and South America increased by over 20% [2] - Conversely, lithium carbonate imports fell significantly, with 21,145 tons imported in May, a 25.37% month-on-month decline, attributed to Chilean lithium salt producers pausing shipments and renegotiating prices [2] - Recent financial policies aimed at boosting consumer spending have positively impacted market sentiment, contributing to a slight rebound in lithium prices, although the overall supply remains excessive, leading to cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of this rebound [3]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue due to core factors such as safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand, with limited short-term adjustment space providing opportunities for low-level buying [1][2][3] Group 1: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in the global trade environment and ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, positively impacting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The geopolitical situation shows signs of easing, but overall tensions remain, contributing to sustained high levels of risk aversion in the market [3] Group 2: Reserve Demand - There is a noticeable decline in the credit quality of global assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves to mitigate potential credit crises, which boosts effective demand for gold and instills market confidence [2] - The ongoing process of reshaping the global monetary order under loose monetary policies is accelerating the demand for gold as a reserve asset [2] Group 3: Allocation Demand - Gold's low correlation with other assets makes it an effective tool for optimizing investment portfolios and hedging institutional risks, especially in the current uncertain economic, policy, and political environment [2] - The continued loose monetary and fiscal policies, along with rising government debt, further support the demand for gold through reserve and allocation channels [2] Group 4: Price Support Levels - The first support level for international gold is identified at $3170 to $3200 per ounce, with a core support level at $3000 per ounce, indicating limited downside potential [1][3] - A breakout above $3500 per ounce could lead to new historical highs for gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry is actively playing its role as a risk "ballast" and resource allocation "navigator" to empower technological innovation, support rural revitalization, and build a modern industrial system, as showcased during the 14th China (Guangzhou) International Financial Trading Expo [1] Group 1: Industry Development and Collaboration - The Guangzhou Futures Industry Cluster Exhibition Zone was established at the expo, featuring 14 futures companies to enhance industry awareness and application of the futures market [2] - The event highlighted three changes: increased collaboration among futures institutions, a more professional approach with specialized activities, and a practical focus on real-world case studies demonstrating the role of futures in risk management [2][3] Group 2: Investor Education and Customization - Strengthening investor education and popularizing futures knowledge is crucial for industry development, with a focus on customizing training based on industry needs [4] - The industry should engage closely with enterprises to understand their requirements and develop tailored futures knowledge training programs [4] Group 3: Team Building and Strategic Development - For new energy companies, building a futures team should align with overall corporate strategy, emphasizing the role of futures in risk management [5] - Companies lacking the capacity to build their own teams are encouraged to collaborate deeply with futures companies for comprehensive support in trading, risk assessment, and execution [5] Group 4: Embracing Financial Technology - The industry is encouraged to embrace financial technology to enhance service capabilities and support business transformation [6] - Futures companies should leverage technology to create a service ecosystem that integrates technology, finance, and industry, facilitating efficient risk management for enterprises [7]

为助力乡村振兴，在上海期货交易所2025年(以下简称上期所)天然橡胶支农专项工作的大力支持下，今 年中信期货有限公司(以下简称中信期货)继续联合云南天然橡胶产业集团有限公司(以下简称云胶集 团)，开展天然橡胶"稳产行动"项目。 2025年5月，经专家组严格评定，中信期货成功入选项目名单。上期所批复天然橡胶现货规模3000吨， 支持金额超过190万元。自2021年起，中信期货已连续四年获批与云胶集团合作的"稳产行动"项目，累 计承接天然橡胶1.23万吨，惠及胶农1.48万户次，平均赔付率达103.7%。该项目已成为中信期货与云胶 集团共同开展金融衍生品服务云南胶农的重要业务模式，致力于保障云南龙头胶企的供应渠道和胶农收 入，提高胶农割胶的积极性，从而稳定云南胶农生产和橡胶原材料价格。今年，项目的再次成功获批， 彰显了上期所对中信期货在风险管理专业能力与服务橡胶实体产业工作上的肯定。 据了解，中信期货正保持与云胶集团的积极沟通，现已完成四方协议的签署，近期项目组成员将深入研 判下半年橡胶行情走势，持续定制化设计并优化期权结构，期许年底顺利结项。 中信期货相关人士表示，未来公司将继续打造"信兴农"品牌，致力于服务" ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have been experiencing low-level fluctuations since June, with the Platts iron ore price index dropping to a year-low of $92.75 per ton, and the Qingdao port PB powder price decreasing by 33 yuan per ton, leading to a significant repair of the price discount in recent periods [1] Supply Side - The supply pressure of iron ore remains high, with global shipments from 19 ports reaching 35.067 million tons as of June 22, an increase of 1.54 million tons week-on-week. The cumulative shipment volume for June has surged by 9.1789 million tons compared to the previous month [2] - Major mining companies have shown significant increases in shipment volumes, with the four largest miners collectively shipping 25.06554 million tons, marking a new weekly high for the year. The cumulative shipment for the month has increased by 7.5583 million tons month-on-month and 3.7359 million tons year-on-year, compensating for reductions caused by adverse weather in the first quarter [2] Domestic Supply - High shipment volumes have led to a rebound in iron ore arrivals at domestic ports, with the latest data showing arrivals at 27.729 million tons, an increase of 2.554 million tons week-on-week, reaching a year-high. The cumulative arrival volume for June has grown by 8.32% month-on-month, with Australian ore showing the largest increase at 10.01% [3] - Domestic mining production is gradually recovering, with the capacity utilization rate of 126 mining companies reaching 63.45%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points. The average daily output of iron concentrate has risen to 400,300 tons, up by 13,400 tons month-on-month [3] Demand Side - Despite being in the off-season, steel mills are increasing production, leading to a rise in iron ore consumption. As of June 20, the average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the daily consumption of imported ore was 3.01 million tons, both showing significant increases [4] - However, seasonal declines in steel demand, particularly in the construction materials sector, are evident. The real estate sector is still in a recovery phase, limiting the potential for increased steel demand, while domestic policies are stabilizing, leading to steady demand for construction steel, but overall demand remains under pressure due to ongoing overseas risks [4] Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory across the entire industry chain has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, with steel mill inventories showing a notable increase. The latest inventory level for 247 steel mills is 89.3624 million tons, up by 1.3756 million tons, with a consumption ratio of 29.69 days [5] - The port inventory has increased moderately, with the latest value at 110.8 million tons, showing a cumulative increase of only 540,100 tons over three weeks. However, with steel mills adopting a low inventory production strategy, the momentum for further inventory accumulation is insufficient, and high port arrivals in July are expected to lead to a larger increase in port inventory [5]

6月以来，PTA现货价格持续强于期货，引发产业链企业高度关注。据记者了解，截至6月26日，PTA基 差月均值同比上涨40%。其中，基差在6月18日创下年内峰值。 "PTA基差走强的主要原因是供需结构处于紧平衡状态。"卓创资讯分析师安光分析称，6月聚酯工厂开 工率维持在90%，这一数值为年内次高水平，表明下游刚需支撑强劲。据测算，6月PTA去库约20万 吨，延续了二季度的去库趋势。但是，在供应端，主力供应商排货节奏放缓，基差报价持续攀升，阶段 性形成了卖方市场。与此同时，下游工厂被动跟涨也助推PTA基差连创新高。 "将近300元／吨的基差，近几年在PTA市场上实属罕见。"浙商期货高级分析师朱立航表示，从当前 PTA市场的流动性来看，聚酯行业保持高开工率，但PTA供应不足，因此形成了供需错配。需要注意的 是，目前PTA库存持续去化，导致现货流通量锐减。 紫金天风期货分析师刘思琪介绍，6月PTA社会库存处于中性偏低水平，可流通库存量紧张进一步支撑 PTA基差走强。 记者注意到，尽管PTA基差目前强势，但市场对其是否可持续已出现分歧。 朱立航表示，今年二季度PTA装置集中检修结束后，供应端已恢复至正常水平。需求端，聚 ...

供应端：压力逐渐增加 2025年是近几年PE产能扩张压力最大的一年，也是此轮产能扩张周期的最后一年。上半年PE产能扩张 压力较小，除了一季度多套新装置集中投产之外，二季度几无新装置投产。不过，下半年PE仍将面临 吉林石化、裕龙石化、湛江巴斯夫等多套新装置投产压力，预计届时总产能将突破4000万吨/年。 成本端：利润存在压缩空间 今年PE利润情况较去年明显改善，其中煤制PE利润丰厚，一度达到2000元/吨，虽然近期有所回落，但 是依然在1500元/吨附近。油制PE一改近几年长期亏损的状态，基本扭亏为盈。综合来看，目前PE处于 近五年利润最好的状态，但考虑到PE曾经长期处于亏损状态，并且今年产能扩张压力较大，后期随着 供应压力陆续兑现，利润也存在压缩空间。 进出口：结构或逐渐改变 目前PE进出口格局变化不大，依然是净进口状态。其中，每月进口量在120万吨左右，每月出口量在5 万～10万吨。随着PE新装置陆续投产，国内供应将逐渐转向过剩，届时PE进出口格局或逐渐改变。作 为对比，PP曾经每月净进口30万吨左右，但是随着产能扩张逐渐兑现，进口大幅减少，出口明显增 加。目前PP进口和出口基本抵消，后期PE也有望像PP一 ...