早上好，原油市场传来利空，金价再创新高！ 22日晚，美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需 求并防止能源贫困。他强调了全球能源供应和获取方面面临的重大挑战。 谈及美伊关系时，特朗普称，伊朗方面有意与美国接触，并暗示双方可能恢复外交沟通。特朗普在出席 所谓"和平委员会"相关活动时称："伊朗确实想谈，我们也会谈。"但他未就对话的具体形式、时间或议 题作出进一步说明。 俄乌局势方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰、美国和俄罗斯的三方会谈将于23日在阿联酋举行， 他表示这是技术层面的会谈。据悉，此次三方会谈将持续两天。 据悉，美国总统特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤将于23日进行。 此外，威特科夫表示，俄乌和平进程已取得重大进展，如今已到了最后阶段，他保持乐观态度。在访问 俄罗斯之后，他将前往阿联酋，参加美、俄、乌三方工作组会议。 受此影响，国际油价下跌。 截至今晨收盘，WTI原油期货主力合约下跌1.57%，布伦特原油期货主力合约下跌1.23%。 贵金属方面，伦敦金现货价格收涨3.31%，报4935.75美元/盎司；伦敦银现货价格大涨近6%。沪金、沪 银 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with prices under pressure due to seasonal factors, but further declines are limited [1] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with the central bank lowering rates and promoting a more active fiscal policy, which may provide some support to the market [1] - The supply side is recovering as previously shut-down coal mines resume production, with the capacity utilization rate increasing from 79.6% to 88.5% [2] Group 2 - Demand for coking coal shows a mix of short-term support from winter stockpiling and expectations of weakening demand thereafter, with independent coking plants increasing their coal inventories [3] - The recent extreme weather conditions may boost heating demand, potentially providing support for coking coal prices [4] - The overall market situation for coking coal remains stable, with limited downside risk for prices, although demand may weaken as stockpiling concludes and steel production remains inconsistent [4]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to rise significantly and reach historical highs by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from project delays and labor strikes, alongside geopolitical risks affecting resource supply chains [1] Supply Side Summary - The import concentrate treatment charge (TC) has decreased to -45.41 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper supply [2] - Domestic copper smelting fees remain high, with southern and northern processing fees at 2000 CNY/ton and 1200 CNY/ton respectively, leading to increased recycled copper supply [2] - The production of electrolytic copper saw a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons in December 2025, but is expected to decrease by 14,500 tons in January due to fewer statistical days [2] - The delay of the Mirador copper mine phase II is expected to reduce global copper mine output by 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbating supply concerns [2] - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on refined copper, which could lead to structural shortages in non-U.S. regions [2] Demand Side Summary - The price difference between refined and scrap copper has surged past 6000 CNY/ton, indicating a significant substitution effect [3] - High copper prices have led to a decrease in operating rates for downstream industries such as scrap copper rods and electrical cables, reflecting weak demand [3] - Despite short-term demand pressures, long-term demand for copper is expected to grow due to its role in electrification and strategic reserves amid rising geopolitical risks [3] Inventory and Macro Environment Summary - Since January, China's social inventory has increased by 54,500 tons, while global total inventory rose by 67,000 tons to 981,000 tons [5] - The LME inventory continues to decline, providing strong support for copper prices, while the price difference between COMEX and LME has narrowed significantly [5] - Geopolitical risks are expected to drive demand for strategic metals, while the short-term strength of the U.S. dollar may limit copper price increases [5] - The current market dynamics reflect a conflict between short-term pressures and mid-term bullish trends, with high prices suppressing demand and leading to inventory accumulation [7]

今年以来，国家发展改革委会同各有关方面优化实施"两新"政策，在前期扎实开展设备更新项目谋划储 备的基础上，抓紧组织项目申报，严格做好审核把关，加快推动设备更新政策落地见效。 据新华社电 记者22日从国家发展改革委获悉，近日，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更 新资金已经下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医疗、住宅老旧电梯等领域约4500个项目，带动总投资 超过4600亿元；同时，采取直接向地方下达资金的方式，继续支持老旧营运货车报废更新、新能源城市 公交车更新、老旧农机报废更新。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing relatively small fluctuations compared to the equity market, with a notable "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds becoming less pronounced [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in re-lending quotas, indicating a focus on structural tools rather than broad monetary policy [2] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is set to be more proactive, with a commitment to maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure, ensuring that overall spending increases while key areas remain robust [3] Group 2 - Recent movements in overseas long-term yields, particularly in the US and Japan, have had limited direct impact on China's bond market, although they reflect broader economic concerns [4] - The reversal of yen carry trades may continue to disrupt markets, potentially benefiting safe-haven assets like gold, while the direct influence on China's bond market remains limited [5] - The overall macroeconomic environment remains unchanged, with the bond market under pressure and the "teeter-totter" effect between stocks and bonds expected to return, although short-term drivers for the bond market are limited [6]

1月宏观数据密集发布，政策表态较为频繁。1月20日，国务院新闻办召开两场新闻发布会，内容涉及落 实中央经济工作会议精神以及发挥积极财政政策作用。分析人士认为，会议传递出的积极信号，从中长 期来看有助于稳定债市预期，但仍需关注相关政策落地实施后的实际影响。 两场发布会分别由国家发展改革委与财政部介绍相关情况，南华期货权益与固收研究分析师徐晨曦介 绍，国家发展改革委提到研究制定出台2026年至2030年扩大内需战略实施方案；推进"十五五"时期高技 术产业标志性引领性重大工程；制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划；制定出台妨碍建设全国统 一大市场事项清单和招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单等政策举措，主要围绕提振内需与促进物价合理回 升。财政部则定调2026年扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。 短线来看，浙商期货宏观高级研究员朱枭鹏认为，两场发布会并未对债市形成直接影响，但中长期来 看，发布会上对外释放了积极的政策信号，即2026年政府将实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，这有利于引 导市场预期稳定，防止国债收益率出现较大波动。 具体而言，发布会特别提到，在2025年逆周期调节政策的作用下，全年经济总量增速设定目标为5%， G ...

Group 1 - The monetary policy has implemented structural interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 0.25 percentage points for various structural monetary policy tools, optimizing some tools, and increasing their quotas to support key strategic areas and weak links [2] - The fiscal policy aims for a more proactive approach, with a budget deficit rate expected to remain around 4% in 2026, and the issuance of special long-term bonds projected to increase by 200 billion to 500 billion, reaching between 1.5 trillion and 1.8 trillion [2] - A package of policies focused on boosting domestic demand has been introduced, including interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan of 500 billion for private enterprise loans, and measures to lower the threshold for private enterprise bond issuance [3] Group 2 - The economy is expected to maintain resilience with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% in 2025, highlighting structural optimization and the growth of new economic drivers, despite weaknesses in traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure [4] - Consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest since March 2023, while core CPI remained above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [4] - The bond market is experiencing wide fluctuations due to a combination of loose funding, improving economic conditions, and rising prices, with expectations of a steepening yield curve as long-term bonds underperform relative to short-term bonds [5]

1月22日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴 有关情况。 关于粮食生产，张兴旺表示，2025年，我国粮食生产克服自然灾害、市场波动等因素影响，实现了高位 增产、再创新高，连续两年站上1.4万亿斤台阶，这是来之不易的。增产主要来自以下几方面： 2026年"三农"工作聚焦六个方面 2025年召开的中央经济工作会议、中央农村工作会议对做好"三农"工作作出了系统部署。农业农村部副 部长张兴旺在发布会上介绍，2026年，农业农村部重点聚焦六个方面抓好贯彻落实。 一是聚焦粮食等重要农产品稳产保供，着力提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益。要坚持产量产能、生产 生态、增产增收一起抓，统筹发展科技农业、绿色农业、质量农业、品牌农业，毫不放松抓好粮食生 产，加快构建多元化食物供给体系。要扩大绿色优质农产品供给，在更高水平上保障粮食等重要农产品 稳定安全供给。 二是聚焦持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，统筹建立常态化防止返贫致贫机制。保持过渡期后帮扶政策总体 稳定，这一条是非常明确也十分重要的，要把常态化帮扶纳入乡村振兴战略统筹实施。健全统一规范、 精准识别、动态调整的常态化监测体系，精准帮扶防 ...

展望"十五五"，期货行业既要为产业升级提供"硬支撑"，也要在人才培育方面发力提升"软实力"，在工 具创新与人才培育的双轮驱动中开辟新赛道，勾画期货服务实体经济的新图景。 深耕实体产业 "十五五"的大幕已徐徐拉开，中国经济在高质量发展的航道上稳健前行。《中共中央关于制定国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出"坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"，这是对传统发展模式 的战略升级，也是发展新质生产力、打造长期竞争优势的重要路径。 "投资于物"与"投资于人"紧密结合，揭示了高质量发展的底层逻辑：既需要现代化基础设施、先进技术 和产业体系的"硬支撑"，也需要高素质人才、知识普及和服务能力等"软实力"。期货市场通过促进两者 的高效协同，践行服务实体经济的使命。 永安期货（600927）副总经理杨敏对期货日报记者表示，期货市场产品持续丰富，目前已拓展至新能 源、绿色金融等新质生产力领域，产业客户参与度不断提升，"保险+期货"等创新模式日趋成熟，为服 务"投资于物"提供了"硬支撑"。 "期货市场的基础设施与实体产业已深度绑定。"浙商期货研究中心宏观首席分析师郑弘说，交割仓库 从"超级仓库"升级为期现联动枢纽，工具创新精 ...

对于联邦政府的赤字，特朗普表示，已经削减了1000亿美元的联邦开支，而美国出口额增加了1500亿美元。 对于格陵兰岛，特朗普表示，格陵兰岛是北美的一部分，这是美国的领土。它是国家战略安全所必需的，寻求立即谈判收购格陵兰岛，不会动用武力夺取格 陵兰岛。 "我们从未要求过任何东西，也从未得到过任何东西。除非我决定用过度的力量，否则我们可能什么都得不到。但我不会那样做。现在大家都在说，哦，太 好了。因为人们以为我会用武力。我不需要用武力。我不想用武力。我不会用武力。"特朗普在演讲中说。 早上好，先关注下 美国总统 特朗普的最新表态。 当地时间1月21日（周三），美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯发表演讲。他在演讲中提及美国经济、美联储主席、格陵兰岛等多个热门话题。 在演讲中，特朗普表示，美国通胀已被击败，核心通胀率为1.5%，预计2025年第四季度经济增长率为5.4%；美国经济正以国际货币基金组织预测速度的两 倍速度增长，相信他的政策能让经济增长更高。 对于新任美联储主席候选人，特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率问题上行动太迟了，在不久的将来宣布新的美联储主席人选。 对于委内瑞拉和石油产量，特朗普表示，美国石油日产量增加7 ...