受事件冲击、美联储中期货币政策转向以及长期全球央行购金等多重因素影响，贵金属上涨动力十分强 劲。中长期来看，美国经济不确定性增大，美联储降息预期升温，实际利率下行直接降低了贵金属的持 有成本，同时美元信用弱化引发美元贬值预期，在多重因素支撑下，贵金属或长期保持偏多走势。 市场投资避险情绪升温 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。10月12日，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记 者问时表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法 规，完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为 引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤 行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 今年以来，特朗普的政策主张始终在政府裁员、驱逐移民、财政法案、俄乌与加沙促进和平谈判、施压 美联储降息、与各国贸易谈 ...

从铜市基本面来看，全球铜市场整体仍处于结构性紧缺的格局之中，呈现出"供应收紧、需求韧性"的紧 平衡态势。全球铜矿供应扰动频繁，进一步加剧了全球大型铜矿供应端的紧张局面。近期，加拿大Teck Resources公司宣布下调两大铜矿2025年的产量指引；智利Quebrada Blanca铜矿因尾矿坝工程的影响， 产量预期从21万～23万吨下调至17万～19万吨；加拿大Highland Valley铜矿产量预期也从13.5万～15万 吨降至12万～13万吨。 全球大型铜矿的减产消息，与我国自9月以来大型铜冶炼商大幅减产的趋势相契合。数据显示，9月，我 国电解铜产量为112.10万吨，环比下降4.31%。我国电解铜月度产量降幅明显，主要是因为铜冶炼厂集 中检修以及阳极板供应紧张持续制约生产。考虑到10月至少有6家铜冶炼厂将继续展开检修，预计影响 我国铜粗炼产能140万吨，最终导致相关铜产品减产约4.73万吨，10月，我国电解铜产量或进一步降至 108.25万吨，铜供应端收缩趋势愈发明显。 虽然10月全球电解铜库存有所累积，但全球显性库存的绝对水平仍处于历史低位，且并未改变整体的紧 平衡格局。从国内市场来看，由于10月 ...

受事件冲击、美联储中期货币政策转向以及长期全球央行购金等多重因素影响，贵金属上涨动力十分强 劲。中长期来看，美国经济不确定性增大，美联储降息预期升温，实际利率下行直接降低了贵金属的持 有成本，同时美元信用弱化引发美元贬值预期，在多重因素支撑下，贵金属或长期保持偏多走势。 市场投资避险情绪升温 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。10月12日，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记 者问时表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法 规，完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为 引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤 行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 今年以来，特朗普的政策主张始终在政府裁员、驱逐移民、财政法案、俄乌与加沙促进和平谈判、施压 美联储降息、与各国贸易谈 ...

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in cross-border fire, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [3] - The Pakistani military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [3] - Afghanistan's government stated that they would respond to any territorial violations and emphasized a preference for dialogue [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [6] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in October [7] - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and may undergo adjustments due to recent U.S. news impacts [9][10] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may face a significant adjustment due to high valuations and recent market dynamics [10][11] - The market style may shift towards a more balanced approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on both technology stocks and high-dividend assets [11][12] - There is potential for further inflow of retail investor funds into the A-share market, indicating that the current market conditions may not signal the end of a bull market [12][13]

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Clashes occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their border, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [2] - Pakistan's military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [2] - Pakistan's government condemned Afghanistan's actions and emphasized that it would not compromise on national sovereignty [2] Group 3 - Afghanistan's government reported casualties of 58 on the Pakistani side and 9 on their own during the border clashes, asserting their right to respond to territorial violations [3] - The Afghan government expressed a preference for dialogue to resolve issues, despite the ongoing conflict [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [4] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a high likelihood of further cuts in December [4] Group 5 - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and signs of overvaluation, with potential adjustments expected due to recent U.S. news impacts [5] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market's response to external shocks may be less severe than in April, but adjustments are still anticipated [5][6] - The market's trading sentiment has become more volatile, reflecting increased external uncertainties and domestic policy responses [6][7] Group 6 - Analysts predict that the A-share market may exhibit a fluctuating trend as investors seek balance amid changing external conditions [7] - The market style may shift towards a more defensive approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-dividend assets like banks [7][8] - There is significant potential for retail investors to continue entering the market, indicating that it is not yet time to consider the end of the bull market [8]

在近期结束的第十九届全国期货(期权)实盘交易大赛中，一位跨界参赛者引起了广泛关注。季烨程，一 位从事芯片设计的工程师，凭借出色表现在金融期货组夺得冠军。 令人惊讶的是，并非金融科班出身的他，依靠十几年业余时间的积累，建立起一套完整的交易体系，即 使在比赛中经历60%的最大回撤，仍能坚守体系，最终赢得比赛。 从学生时代开始的投资之路 他特别提到，在6月底就重仓进场，抓住了后来的一波上涨行情。这种提前布局源于他对长周期技术分 析的信心："根据历史的一些分析，结合当前宏观政策与产业转型节奏，我判断大概在今年下半年会有 一个重新启动的过程。2025年不同于以往，市场对信息的反应更快、更有效，必须提前布局。" 面对60%回撤的情绪管理 季烨程表示，在比赛中，他一度经历了最高达60%的回撤。对大多数交易者而言，这是心理上的极大考 验，但他却表现出了惊人的情绪稳定性。"我当时心里是没有任何波动的，因为我没有盯着资金的起 伏，只是根据标的本身的走势去判断它是否还在我预期的框架内运行。"季烨程说。 他解释说，这60%的回撤主要来自期权持仓，而标的本身的走势并未超出他的技术分析范围，"只要标 的没有问题，还在技术分析范围之内，其 ...

阿拉格齐重申，双方谈判议题仅限于核问题，这是伊朗一贯立场。他指出，由于在纽约联合国大会期间 发生的事件及其后续发展，伊朗目前"没有看到重新开启谈判的基础" 。阿拉格齐透露，今年纽约联合 国大会举行期间双方确实曾进行接触，伊朗曾表示愿就相关问题进行磋商。但美方立场是，如果伊朗交 出所有60%丰度的浓缩铀，他们只会将"快速恢复制裁"机制推迟六个月。阿拉格齐称，这是"过分、完 全不合理、绝对不可接受的立场"，伊朗已明确表达拒绝，因此这次接触未能取得成果。 阿拉格齐表示，伊朗曾告知斡旋方，"没有理性的人会接受这种要求"。并称如果有关国家愿意永久放 弃"快速恢复制裁"机制，让安理会第2231号决议在10月18日按期终止，并将伊朗议题从安理会议程中彻 底删除，那么相关请求才值得考虑。"但美国从未接受这一点。" 刚刚，伊朗外长透露拒绝美方要求原因。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月11日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在被问及与美国重启谈判及其条件时表示，伊 朗对美国的立场始终明确，"如果他们准备在平等的基础上，为实现共同利益、基于相互尊重进行谈 判，并且不把谈判与'命令'混为一谈，愿意开展公平、平衡的对话，我们也会准备好进行这样的谈 判 ...

10月9日，第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛重量组亚军孙辉在期货日报"巅峰对话"直播栏目中 分享了他的交易心得与实战经验。 核心交易理念：主动止盈与盈利出金 1.为何强调主动止盈 孙辉说，他不认同"让利润奔跑"的传统观点，因为大行情很少见，多数是震荡或小行情。如果10次盈利 都不平仓，最后却止损出场，账户不仅面临巨大回撤，交易信心也会受挫。 对此，他建议，采用分批止盈策略：一部分落袋为安，另一部分"让子弹再飞一会儿"。 2.盈利出金的哲学 "不追求复利，坚持盈利出金"，这一原则孙辉已践行了十余年。 他表示，坚持盈利出金，一方面有助于规避"黑天鹅"风险和个人冲动交易的风险；另一方面，可以帮助 自己形成"胜利的良性循环"，增强交易信心。 "盈利出金并不影响做大做强，我会通过季度或年度周期适当增加交易的本金。"他说。 交易方法：看大做小，灵活波段 1.看大做小，长短结合 看大是指从宏观面、基本面入手，把握品种的长期方向，尤其是关注黄金、白银、原油、股指等与国际 市场联动紧密的品种走势。 做小是指在实际进场时，将5分钟、15分钟K线等短周期信号作为进场时机和节点的判断依据。 滚动操作：针对趋势性品种（如黄金），不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly published "Guidelines for Futures Companies to Release Futures Research Reports" aims to standardize the behavior of futures companies in releasing research reports, enhance research service capabilities, and address internal control deficiencies and irregular processes in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines focus on "standardizing professional behavior, preventing business risks, and improving service quality," detailing execution standards for each step in the report release process [2]. - A total of 32 articles are included in the guidelines, emphasizing the establishment of a comprehensive internal control system covering the entire process of report creation, review, release, and sales service [2][3]. Group 2: Key Highlights - The guidelines require unified content elements and format standards for research reports, emphasizing the qualifications and responsibilities of authors [3]. - A dual mechanism for quality review and compliance checks is established, with clear processes, content, responsibilities, and personnel requirements [3]. - The guidelines introduce a market impact assessment mechanism prior to report release, ensuring reports are disseminated through a centralized internal platform [3]. Group 3: Public and Private Domain Distinction - The guidelines clearly delineate the boundaries between public and private domain operations, with public domain reports limited to educational content and private domain reports requiring specific contracts and risk disclosures [4]. - This distinction aims to prevent misleading information dissemination and ensure that private domain services align with investor risk profiles [4]. Group 4: Conflict of Interest Prevention - The guidelines mandate the separation of research report creation and sales functions to ensure research independence and prevent conflicts of interest [5][6]. - Companies are required to adhere to integrity regulations and ensure consistency in internal research support [5]. Group 5: Practical Implementation - The guidelines expand their applicability to include "information services" under the same management as research reports, preventing circumvention of regulations [6]. - Companies can provide research reports to brokerage clients without separate contracts if no fees are charged, aligning with practical industry needs [6]. Group 6: Industry Impact - The guidelines address existing industry issues such as inadequate internal controls and quality inconsistencies, promoting a shift towards high-quality development in the futures market [7]. - By enhancing the quality of research services, the guidelines aim to better meet the risk management needs of industrial clients [7][8]. Group 7: Transition Period - A two-month transition period is established for futures companies to prepare for the implementation of the guidelines, ensuring readiness for compliance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The construction and building materials industry is undergoing a significant green transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, integrating low-carbon and digitalization throughout the entire industry chain [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The transformation in the construction and building materials industry is not only a technological upgrade but also a profound restructuring of the industry [1] - The development concepts of scale, intensification, and platformization are providing continuous momentum for this green revolution [1] Group 2: Digital Platforms - The Henan Zhongyu Material Trade Co., Ltd. has launched a green building materials industry chain information platform, which includes six major sections: building materials products, enterprises, parks, innovation platforms, talent, and transactions [3] - The platform has registered 1,009 suppliers and 313 purchasing users, with a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 150 million yuan [3][4] Group 3: Policy Support - The construction of the green building materials trading platform is supported by policies aimed at fostering a modern industrial system, which includes 28 key industrial chains [3][5] - The platform aims to activate data from the information platform to promote collaborative development within the industry chain [4] Group 4: Sustainable Practices - The company is integrating upstream raw material supply solutions, including steel and non-ferrous metals, into the green supply chain [7] - The innovative approach to solid waste utilization creates a value conversion path from waste to green building materials, significantly reducing energy consumption by approximately 50% compared to traditional cement production [7][8]