Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in pricing between electrolytic aluminum and its primary raw material, alumina, driven by differing supply constraints and demand outlooks [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolytic aluminum prices have risen by 20% over the past year, while alumina prices have fallen by 25%, highlighting a stark contrast in market dynamics [1][2] - The theoretical profit for alumina has decreased by 111%, whereas electrolytic aluminum's theoretical profit has increased by 264% [1][2] - The price divergence is attributed to the rigid supply constraints on electrolytic aluminum, which is capped at a production capacity of 45 million tons, with a utilization rate of 97% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is bolstered by sectors such as AI, energy storage, and electric vehicles, creating a favorable outlook for its pricing [2][3] - In contrast, alumina faces oversupply, with a projected utilization rate of less than 80% by 2025, and new production capacity being added, particularly in Guangxi [2][4] - The influx of low-cost alumina from overseas, particularly from Indonesia and India, is exacerbating supply pressures, leading to record-high social inventories [2][4] Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by demand fluctuations rather than raw material costs, marking a shift from a cost-driven pricing model to one governed by supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Alumina, lacking pricing power, follows cost changes and is currently under pressure due to a significant drop in production costs, necessitating a search for new lower price equilibrium [4][5] - The contrasting profit dynamics between the two segments illustrate a market mechanism where profits are shifting from upstream alumina to downstream electrolytic aluminum [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term resolution of the price divergence is unlikely unless there is significant production reduction in the alumina sector, which has not yet occurred on a large scale [5] - Long-term improvement in the pricing relationship will depend on the alumina industry's ability to optimize its supply-demand balance and return to healthier profit levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in the pricing and profitability of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with electrolytic aluminum profits rising sharply while alumina prices remain under pressure, leading to a clear shift in profit distribution within the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Market - Since late December last year, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, with the Shanghai aluminum futures price reaching a historical high of 26,185 yuan/ton in January [1]. - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector has been supported by rising futures prices, despite weak demand from downstream processing enterprises [2]. - The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase slightly, with daily output around 12.3 million tons, while downstream demand has weakened due to seasonal factors and high prices [2][4]. Group 2: Alumina Market - The alumina sector is facing severe structural oversupply, with nominal production capacity nearing 110 million tons and operational capacity around 93 million tons, significantly exceeding the demand from electrolytic aluminum [4]. - The average price of alumina has dropped from 2,750 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton since mid-December, falling below the industry average cost [3]. - Despite some production cuts and maintenance in alumina plants, the average daily output remains above 260,000 tons, indicating persistent high levels of supply [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The divergence in pricing and profitability between electrolytic aluminum and alumina is attributed to differences in capacity constraints, demand structure, and the nature of the products [5][6]. - The lack of a profit-sharing mechanism within the aluminum industry means that even with high profits in electrolytic aluminum, aluminum smelters are reluctant to accept high-priced alumina [4][5]. - The current market structure and supply constraints suggest that the disparity in profitability between electrolytic aluminum and alumina will continue until there are substantial changes in production capacity and profit distribution mechanisms [6].

早上好，先来关注下美伊谈判。 中东多国紧急游说 美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月4日，在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行 的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。据悉，此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的 担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消 会议。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于6日上午10点左 右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 蒂利斯这张反对票可能导致银行委员会在表决沃什的提名时出现平票局面，进而阻止提名诉诸参议院全院表决。 美国司法部1月9日向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻新项目作证一 事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直言遭调查是因为美联储"没 有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。 2026年1月我国大宗商品价格指数创三年半新高 ...

近期，国内焦煤期货价格呈现明显的区间震荡特征。在供需双弱的格局下，春节前市场难有明确方向， 大概率维持区间震荡。春节后，随着供给与需求恢复节奏的错配，供给端恢复速度或显著快于需求端， 市场面临较大的下跌压力。 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 图为MS统计样本煤矿每天停产个数（单位：个） 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 图为523家炼焦煤矿山开工率（单位：%） 春节过后，市场格局或发生明显变化，供需两端恢复节奏的错配将成为主导，焦煤价格或面临一定的下 跌压力。春节后煤矿复工速度较快，从往年的数据来看，春节后两周内，煤矿即可将开工率恢复至80% 以上。进口方面，蒙煤通关量大概率在春节后也会维持高位。随着节后澳大 ...

早上好，先来关注下美伊谈判。 中东多国紧急游说美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判 美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定会议地点由土耳其伊斯坦布尔改到阿曼的提议。据悉，此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的 担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。该地区至少有九个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消 会议。 当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判将于6日上午10点左 右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行。并对阿曼为此次谈判所做的一切必要安排表示感谢。 当天稍早前，有伊朗官方消息人士称，原定于6日在阿曼举行的伊美谈判已经取消。该消息人士表示，取消会谈的原 因是美方对会谈施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会谈地点的问题。 受此影响，国际油价日内大幅波动。布伦特原油期货价格在周四凌晨1点30分猛然拉涨超3%后，又在4点左右显著回 落。截至发稿，布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.13%。 据央视新闻消息，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体11名民主党人3日致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟候任 美联储主席凯文·沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The China Commodity Price Index reached a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, standing at 125.3 points, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Gold and silver prices experienced a rebound, with London gold spot prices surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver prices breaking the $91 per ounce mark [2] - However, by the end of trading, the gains in gold and silver prices narrowed, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract turning from gains to losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Predictions for Gold Prices - A Reuters survey indicated that analysts have significantly raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, with a median expected average price of $4746.50 per ounce, marking the highest annual prediction since the survey began in 2012 [4] - This forecast represents a substantial increase from $4275 per ounce in October 2025 and a dramatic rise from $2700 per ounce in a similar survey a year prior [4] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by factors such as previous price declines, easing overseas liquidity risks, and ongoing strong fundamentals [5] - The market is currently experiencing cautious sentiment due to a temporary U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Silver prices may face volatility, with potential supply and inventory tightness, but new demand from sectors like AI could provide support [6]

临近春节假期，玻璃行业进入季节性淡季，下游企业陆续放假停工，终端需求持续走弱。在这样的背景 下，玻璃期货昨日却强势上涨3.36%，最高触及1120元/吨，成交量突破200万手。 出口表现则较为亮眼。周小燕提到，受出口退税政策影响，今年1月玻璃出口订单表现较好。 展望后市，两位分析师均表示，春节假期前后，市场交易逻辑将切换。 周小燕认为，春节假期前需关注中下游囤货意愿变化，若冬储需求超预期释放，可能进一步支撑玻璃价 格上涨。春节假期后则需重点关注下游需求复苏情况，尤其是房地产行业的表现。若房地产行业需求无 明显起色，玻璃期货价格上行空间将受到限制。 寿佳露表示，春节假期前需要关注供应变化：沙河地区有4条煤制气产线待改造，同时也有不少待点火 的新产线，预计未来日熔量将上升；湖北地区春节假期前有冷修预期，且随着交割品减少，其现货价格 已高于沙河地区。 "春节假期后则需重点关注需求和库存情况，中游高库存会持续压制玻璃价格，上涨行情或难以持续。 不过，玻璃行业整体生产成本大概率抬升，目前天然气产线持续亏损，石油焦、煤制气产线仅小幅盈利 或处于盈亏平衡线附近，这意味着玻璃价格大幅下跌的可能性较小。"寿佳露说。 南华期货（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "investment copper bars" reflects a lack of financial literacy and structural shortcomings in financial education, highlighting the cognitive dissonance and investment anxiety among ordinary investors in a complex market environment [1][12]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The surge in "investment copper bars" is a response to the rising prices of gold and silver, driven by a strong desire for wealth accumulation among investors [12][14]. - The pricing of "investment copper bars" is significantly detached from the actual market value, with premiums exceeding 80% compared to copper futures prices, indicating a lack of transparency and fair pricing mechanisms [17][18]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - "Investment copper bars" lack a unified pricing mechanism and reliable exit strategies, leading to potential losses of 40% to 70% for investors upon purchase [13][15]. - The product is characterized by high volatility and low liquidity, making it a risky investment option that is not suitable for most investors [16][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in precious metals prices, including a significant drop in gold and silver, serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in speculative investments like "investment copper bars" [16][17]. - The market for "investment copper bars" is described as a gray area with weak regulation, highlighting the need for investors to be cautious and informed [14][15]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Successful investing requires a deep understanding of market demands and cycles, as demonstrated by individuals who have achieved consistent returns through disciplined investment strategies [5][6]. - The essence of investment lies in recognizing genuine demand and maintaining a steady approach, rather than succumbing to market fads and speculative bubbles [5][6].

贵金属价格在2025年末的大幅上涨趋势延续至2026年初，黄金价格已突破每盎司4500美元，白银价格突 破每盎司80美元，铂金更是达到2007年以来的首次纪录高位。钯金价格同样出现大幅反弹，但距离纪录 高位仍有相当距离。 图1：贵金属价格飞涨幅度几无先例 从价格回报来看，金属自2024年底至今的表现远超其他资产类别。截至1月6日，黄金上涨65%，钯金上 涨95%，铂金上涨150%，白银涨幅高达170%。其中黄金表现相对偏弱，可能与其涨幅在2000年至2024年 底间就已遥遥领先于其他金属有关。在2020年代的前五年里，黄金上涨73%，白银上涨63%，而铂金和 钯金则分别下跌8%和52%。在一定程度上，白银、铂金和钯金近期的强势表现，或反映了其在长期落后 于黄金之后的奋起直追。 那么，投资者应如何看待这些贵金属之间的相对价值？整个贵金属板块的前景又将如何？ 贵金属相对价值分析：白银与黄金 如今，要再坚持"白银相对黄金价格偏低"的观点，恐怕难有说服力。金银比（即一盎司黄金可兑换的白 银盎司数）已降至2013年以来的最低水平。 图2：最近几个月白银相对黄金显著走强 白银的部分涨幅，或反映了其相较于黄金的高β属性。白 ...

2026年，化工产业供需结构与竞争格局持续优化，推动板块估值修复。市场资金开始青睐处于低位的化工权益类资 产，乐观情绪传导至商品市场，带动化工品期货品种集体走强。 近期，伴随中东地缘政治风险降温，油价回落，主力多头随之减仓，PTA期价如期展开调整。不过，其中长期重心上 移的趋势并未改变。 PX-MX价差走强，其绝对值曾刷新5年来高位。高利润持续刺激工厂外采MX生产PX，支撑海内外短流程装置维持高 负荷。截至1月30日，国内PX负荷处于历年同期高位89.2%，且一季度检修计划力度弱于往年，叠加海外工厂有提负 计划，整体供应预计保持充裕。需关注PTA检修计划是否推迟，这将成为影响PX需求的关键变量。整体来看，一季度 PX供需格局预计转向宽松。 聚酯环节，据相关统计，1—2月期间聚酯工厂安排减停的装置涉及产能约占全国总产能的17.4%。近期聚酯行业开工 将加速下滑，整体检修力度超过去年同期。当前聚酯工厂权益库存不高，但核心压力在于下游放假时间延长。为此， 聚酯企业或计划在春节期间适度加大减产力度，以缓解节后可能累积的库存压力。 图为亚洲短流程PX装置利润（PX-MX） 供应端，截至1月30日，PTA行业负荷维持在历 ...