月中下旬，铁水产量意外回升，炼焦煤盘面开始交易交割逻辑，双焦盘面大幅下跌让利于铁矿，叠加美 联储降息预期回升，铁矿石在黑色板块里逆势上涨。12月初，铁矿石供应逐步宽松，港口库存创近几年 同期新高，铁水产量继续回落，铁矿石价格承压运行。 外矿供应延续宽松格局 2025年11月，美国供应管理协会（ISM）制造业PMI降至48.2%，萎缩幅度为4个月最大，且已持续9个 月低于荣枯线。其核心关注点在于，美联储降息能否传导至实体经济，刺激海外传统制造业需求回暖， 从而系统性地拉动我国钢材、机械、家电等出口链条。 2025年我国铁矿石进口呈现"前低后高"走势，上半年受澳洲飓风、巴西暴雨等极端天气影响，主流矿山 进口量超预期下滑。下半年开始，传统天气干扰趋弱，四大矿山发运量逐渐恢复正常，2025年6—10月 我国铁矿石进口量同比持续增加，9月份进口铁矿石同比增加11.7%，创单月历史新高，10月进口铁矿 砂及其精矿11131万吨，同比增加7.2%，延续高进口趋势。 2025年1—10月我国进口铁矿砂及其精矿10.3亿吨，同比增加约800万吨，其中澳洲进口同比增加970万 吨，巴西进口同比增加343万吨，非澳巴进口同比回落5 ...

大家好！ 市场分析人士认为，国际油价下跌，投资者一方面关注旨在结束乌克兰冲突的谈判进展，同时等待本周预期中的美联储降息。 赵若晨表示，目前市场主要关注俄乌"和平协议"达成的可能性，若协议达成进度超预期，油价下跌或加速。 卓创资讯（301299）成品油分析师于雅欣认为，短期国际油价难以走出单边行情，或延续区间整理走势。 高盛近日报告预测，即便没有俄乌"和平协议"，由于非俄地区供应强劲，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格将在2026年分别下降至56美元/桶和52美元/桶。 内外因素共振股指期货表现强势 昨日，A股主要股指悉数走高，股指期货亦全线上扬。 12月8日，国际油价下挫。截至当日收盘，2026年2月交货的布伦特原油期货价格收于62.5美元/桶，跌幅为1.97%；2026年1月交货的WTI原油期货价格收于 58.83美元/桶，跌幅为2.08%。 谈及A股表现强势的原因，南华期货（603093）权益与固收研究分析师廖臣悦表示，主要受内外多重利好因素提振：从海外来看，上周五美国9月PCE数 据显示通胀企稳、未超出市场预期，显著强化了市场对美联储在本月降息的预期，同时全球流动性宽松预期升温，北向资金等外资回流动力增强。从国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of China's futures and options market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has led to a significant increase in product offerings, enhancing the market's ability to serve the real economy and fill gaps in risk management tools across various industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Product Expansion - A total of 74 new products have been launched, including 6 options listed on two stock exchanges, bringing the total number of futures and options products to 164 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has introduced 18 new futures and options products, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has launched 19, covering various sectors such as agriculture, chemicals, and textiles [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has listed 3 futures products and 11 options products, including the first monthly average price futures in China [3]. Group 2: Systematic Innovation - The innovation in product offerings is characterized by a systematic and sectoral approach, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange creating a product matrix covering metals, energy, chemicals, and shipping services [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has transitioned from following to leading in the innovation of intermediate products, while the Dalian Commodity Exchange has achieved full coverage of futures and options tools in the oil and fat sector [4]. Group 3: Focus on Green Development - The launch of the first recycled commodity futures, such as casting aluminum alloy futures, supports the green transformation of the aluminum industry and enhances the market for waste aluminum recycling [5]. - The introduction of futures for industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and other new energy metals provides essential risk management and pricing tools for industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [5]. Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The pig futures market offers effective tools for managing the "pig cycle," with 15 out of the top 20 pig farming companies participating in hedging [6]. - The introduction of log futures provides risk management tools and pricing references for the forestry industry, enhancing the operational capabilities of farmers and forestry enterprises [6]. Group 5: Options Market Growth - The options market has seen significant growth, with 51 new options products launched, bringing the total to 73, achieving full coverage in key sectors like energy and agriculture [7]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has achieved full coverage of active futures products with options, indicating a growing recognition of options as flexible risk management tools [7]. Group 6: Innovative Service Models - Futures companies and risk management firms are innovating service models, offering personalized and refined solutions that integrate both on-exchange and off-exchange derivatives [8]. - New trading models based on futures pricing, such as basis trading and rights-inclusive trading, are rapidly gaining popularity across the industry [8]. Group 7: Future Directions - Moving into the "15th Five-Year Plan," the focus will shift from expanding the scale of the futures market to improving quality and addressing existing gaps in the derivatives system [9]. - Key areas for future development include carbon emission rights futures, electricity futures, foreign exchange futures, commodity index futures, and weather derivatives [9].

近期，焦煤和焦炭期货价格波动幅度较大，有投资者坦言："双焦交易难度加大，往年的交易逻辑在今 年多次失效。" 据悉，目前国内焦煤产量仍然不高，最新一周样本矿山原煤产量为190万吨，处于近年同期最低水平;精 煤产量为75.4万吨，明显低于去年同期。国内煤矿在完成年度生产任务后面临指标约束，同时生产仍然 受超产核查、安全环保检查等因素影响，难以放量。在国产煤供应维持低位的同时，进口煤数量却明显 增加，压制了焦煤价格。 "预计焦煤供应相对稳定，在下游需求进入淡季后，焦煤产量难以大幅增长。进口端，12月蒙焦煤进口 存在一定的不确定性，但海运煤整体到港量预计仍处于高位，可能会对国内煤价形成压制。"冯艳成 说。 中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌介绍，需求方面，铁水日产量持续下降，目前为232万吨，与去年同期相 近。12月钢厂检修计划较多，后期铁水产量预计将进一步下降，对原料的需求将持续下降。同时，下游 钢厂及独立焦化厂库存较为充裕，近期采购意愿不强，现货交投氛围一般。前期市场普遍预期焦煤供应 将维持偏紧状态，但进口放量一定程度上打破了这个预期。同时，"反内卷"政策边际影响减弱，资金做 多热情有所消退。 展望后市，陈为昌认为，目前焦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in coking coal and coke futures prices has increased, with traditional trading logic failing this year, leading to significant price declines in recent weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Coking coal and coke futures saw substantial declines, with coking coal dropping 17% in November and coke prices falling 11% during the same period [3]. - The main futures contracts for both coking coal and coke experienced a sharp drop in the last trading session [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal prices have been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including increased imports and a decline in demand from steel mills, which have seen a reduction in iron output [3][4]. - Domestic coking coal production remains low, with recent weekly output at 1.9 million tons, the lowest for this time of year, while premium coal production is at 754,000 tons, significantly below last year's levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for coking coal prices is bearish, with expectations of stable supply but weak demand as the market enters a seasonal lull [4][5]. - The current futures contract for coking coal has dropped to around 1,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream spot warehouse receipt cost exceeds 1,100 yuan per ton, indicating a significant premium [4].

Group 1 - Huatai Securities anticipates a "super policy week" in China with significant meetings scheduled, focusing on three main themes: "starting well," "expanding domestic demand," and "promoting innovation" in technology, with increased attention on price factors and nominal GDP growth [2] - The upcoming week will also see major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, announce interest rate decisions, indicating a global focus on monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 7.412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) as of November 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces [4] - Global central banks showed strong demand for gold in October, with net purchases reaching 53 tons, a 36% month-on-month increase, and a total of 254 tons for the year so far [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF holdings rose to 3932 tons by the end of November, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, with China being the largest single source of net inflows [4] Group 3 - Silver prices have surged over 100% this year, with the London silver spot price reaching a record high, reflecting significant market interest and investment [6][11] - A substantial influx of funds into silver ETFs has been noted, with the highest weekly inflow since July occurring in just four trading days [7] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics indicate a structural supply gap in the silver market, projected at approximately 95 million ounces for 2025, continuing a trend of supply shortages [9] Group 4 - The COMEX silver futures inventory has decreased significantly, dropping over 2300 tons in two months, with registered warehouse receipts at historical lows [12] - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to around 72, indicating a shift in market risk preferences and suggesting that silver may outperform gold in the current bullish phase [12] - Analysts predict that while silver prices may experience volatility, strong support exists due to low inventories, and any significant pullback could be seen as an opportunity for industrial capital to replenish stocks [13][14]

期货日报记者注意到，自11月以来，焦煤在黑色板块中的表现由前期的偏强转为偏弱，11月跌幅达17%，进入12月仍延续跌势。焦炭期货价格11月累计下 跌11%。 华宝期货煤焦研究员冯艳成认为，今年11月以来，焦煤和焦炭期货价格震荡下行，总体表现明显弱于黑色板块的其他品种。从运行逻辑来看，一是11月北 方地区进入采暖季，相关部门强调稳定能源生产供应，加强煤炭生产组织和运输保障，对市场情绪造成偏空影响，促使煤价回调。二是8—10月焦煤进口 量连续3个月超1000万吨，11月蒙煤通关及海运煤到港量仍处于高位，而钢厂高炉铁水产量持续下滑，对原料的需求也随之下降。三是11月中下旬下游采 购节奏开始放缓，市场供强需弱使煤价走弱预期增强。 近期，焦煤和焦炭期货价格波动幅度较大，有投资者坦言："双焦交易难度加大，往年的交易逻辑在今年多次失效。" 上周五夜盘收盘，焦煤和焦炭期货主力合约均大幅下跌。 中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌介绍，需求方面，铁水日产量持续下降，目前为232万吨，与去年同期相近。12月钢厂检修计划较多，后期铁水产量预计将进 一步下降，对原料的需求将持续下降。同时，下游钢厂及独立焦化厂库存较为充裕，近期采购意愿不强，现货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sany Heavy Industry announced its plan to continue futures hedging operations in 2026 to mitigate the adverse effects of raw material price fluctuations on production and to lock in production costs [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Sany Heavy Industry's wholly-owned subsidiary, Sany Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd., will engage in futures hedging, utilizing a maximum trading margin and premium of 800 million yuan and a maximum contract value of 2 billion yuan on any trading day [1] - The company will use its own funds for futures hedging and will not utilize raised funds for this purpose [1] - The hedging will involve commodities such as steel, copper, aluminum, crude oil, and rubber, which are correlated with corresponding futures varieties [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The global economic environment is complex, with significant volatility in commodity prices, leading to a strong demand for risk management among real economy enterprises [1] - The futures market is increasingly recognized for its role in serving the real economy, with rising participation from state-owned and listed companies in futures trading, characterized by comprehensive industry coverage and refined trading strategies [1] - As of now, China has listed 164 futures and options varieties, enhancing the resilience and safety of supply chains [2] - The futures market has developed the scale and capability to support the real economy, playing a crucial role in enterprise trade pricing and risk management across major sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to structural oversupply, with futures prices hitting new lows since listing, and near-month contracts declining more sharply than far-month contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of December 4, the inventory of caustic soda in fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises across the country reached 504,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year surge of 79.32% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda sample enterprises was 86.0%, with a weekly output of 846,000 tons, both figures at year-high levels [1] - The demand from the alumina industry, the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, is weakening due to falling product prices and negative profit margins, leading to some companies initiating short-term maintenance and production cuts [2][3] Price Movements and Profitability - Despite the decline in caustic soda prices, the price of liquid chlorine has risen from -500 yuan/ton in September to 150 yuan/ton, which has helped offset some of the pressure from falling caustic soda prices [2] - The average profit margin for Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises is currently 241 yuan/ton, indicating a return to profitability [2] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the caustic soda market are unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, with supply pressures expected to persist until there is a significant decrease in operating rates [3][4] - The potential for new caustic soda capacity additions of approximately 1 million tons by 2025 and over 2 million tons by 2026 could maintain supply pressures [3] - A shift towards a more balanced supply-demand situation may not occur until after the 2026 Spring Festival, when seasonal maintenance could reduce supply and downstream stocking demand may be released [3][4]