2025/2026榨季全球食糖预期供应过剩 今年下半年以来，白糖价格持续走弱，当前市场已进入新旧糖转换阶段。受大量进口加工糖冲击，新糖 价格直接下探至国内制糖成本线。 国际糖业组织（ISO）最新预测显示，受产量增长推动，预计2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应将过剩163万 吨。具体来看，该榨季全球糖产量预计同比增长3.15%，达到1.8177亿吨；而消费量预计仅增长0.6%， 至1.8014亿吨。此外，2024/2025榨季全球食糖预计将出现292万吨的供需缺口。 巴西方面，10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，较去年同期增长14.34%；糖产量为 206.8万吨，同比增长16.40%。尽管该地区甘蔗ATR（总可回收糖分）显著低于往年同期水平，但制糖 比大幅提升有效弥补了这一不足。截至目前，本榨季累计制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%提高 3.38个百分点，进一步支撑了全球食糖整体增产格局。 印度方面，维持食糖增产预期。据印度糖厂协会（ISMA）数据，2025/2026榨季食糖总产量预计为3435 万吨。若扣除用于乙醇生产的340万吨食糖，该榨季食糖净产量预计为3095万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts by the Guangxi Futures Exchange is set for November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively, with a well-designed contract structure aimed at reducing delivery costs and risks for industry players, thereby enhancing the futures market's role in supporting the real economy [1][4]. Contract Design and Specifications - The first batch of platinum futures contracts includes PT2606, PT2608, and PT2610, while palladium futures contracts include PD2606, PD2608, and PD2610. The trading unit for both platinum and palladium futures is 1,000 grams per contract, with a minimum price fluctuation of 0.05 yuan per gram [2][3]. - The initial margin requirement for trading platinum and palladium futures is set at 9% of the contract value, with a price limit of 14% on the listing day. If a contract is traded, the margin and price limit will adjust accordingly from the next trading day [2][3]. Delivery Mechanism - The futures contracts will utilize a "ingot + sponge" dual delivery model, which is an innovative design aimed at aligning with domestic industry characteristics and improving hedging efficiency. This model is expected to better meet the needs of the upstream and downstream industries of platinum and palladium [4][5]. - The delivery warehouses and factories have been designated to facilitate the physical delivery process, ensuring smooth transactions between buyers and sellers [6][7]. Industry Impact and Future Plans - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures is seen as a significant advancement in China's platinum group metal industry, enhancing risk management capabilities and international pricing power [7][8]. - Companies involved in the delivery process are actively preparing to optimize service quality and enhance operational efficiency, aiming to meet the actual needs of industry clients and facilitate effective price discovery and risk management [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced significant adjustments due to three main reasons: a decline in domestic economic data from September to October, a stronger US dollar index affecting market risk appetite, and year-end pressures leading to a slowdown in capital inflow [1][5][6] - Economic data for October shows a continued weakening trend, with industrial value-added growth at 4.9%, retail sales down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, and a decline in manufacturing investment growth [5][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that the most significant pressure points for the economy have likely passed, suggesting a lower probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing measures expected in early 2026 [5][6][10] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts have created confusion in the market, with the dollar index rising, which has negatively impacted the Hong Kong stock market and indirectly affected A-shares [6][10] - A-share financing has seen a slight net outflow, with the total financing amount decreasing from 2.48 trillion yuan to 2.47 trillion yuan, although the proportion of financing balance to A-share market capitalization has increased [7] - The investment strategy for November and December is expected to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, with an emphasis on sectors with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [8][10] Group 3 - Long-term projections for the A-share market in 2026 suggest a bullish outlook, with the CSI 300 index expected to rise by 15% to 22%, supported by both liquidity injections and improving fundamentals [10] - The anticipated nominal growth rate in 2026, despite a potential decline in actual GDP growth, is expected to drive earnings growth for the CSI 300 index by 5% to 6% [10]

Group 1 - The domestic market interest rates are showing a "short weak long stable" trend, with short-term funding demand weak and market rates declining [1][3] - As of November 24, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shibor rates are reported at 1.316%, 1.447%, and 1.542%, respectively, showing decreases of 19.2, 6.7, and 0.8 basis points compared to November 17 [2][3] - The 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% [2][3] Group 2 - A total of 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting 338.7 billion yuan in reverse repo operations [3] - There is a high probability that the central bank will roll over or exceed the 900 billion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) that is maturing this week [3] - Overall, the impact of the central bank's reverse repo operations on liquidity is minimal, but the likelihood of stronger domestic market interest rates next week is high due to increased funding demand entering December [3]

2026年全球锂需求量预计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量 另一方面，重点减碳领域如工程机械、船舶，新型应用领域如航空航天、人工智能等电动化技术不断提 升，为锂业发展注入了新的动能。同时，以固态电池为引领的，下一代高能量密度电池重要环节研究取 得突破，关键材料性能不断提升，行业上下游技术创新成果迸发，凸显了锂行业的发展韧性和澎湃动 力。我们对锂行业的未来充满信心。 企业或将迎来更大的发展空间 期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）11月25日，在"2025年第二届中国国际锂业大会"上，天齐锂业董事长蒋 安琪致辞表示，2026年全球锂需求量预计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量，基本达到供需平衡，为产业发展 筑牢了根基。她认为，当前，锂行业的韧性已展现出更强的活力，相信随着行业供需格局的改善，企业 将迎来更大的发展空间，促进资源向研发创新集聚，助力产业链破除同质化竞争，向新向绿发展，推动 行业高质量发展进入新阶段。 2025 年，在全球积极应对气候变化、加速向清洁能源转型的大背景下，锂产业发展劲头依旧十足。蒋 安琪认为，在经历了供需失衡的竞争阵痛期后，通过政策有效引导和技术创新升级，锂产业迎来了新的 发展机遇。一方面，受益于可再生能源 ...

海通期货第十六党支部与当地党支部签订了党建共建协议，以"共建组织、共抓队伍、共享资源、共谋 发展"为目标，推动党建与产业发展深度融合。签约仪式后，海通期货对参会农户进行了天然橡胶"保险 +期货"项目相关培训，培训内容围绕价格风险管理知识、参保流程、理赔须知等胶农关切的问题展 开，目的在于提升农户金融素养与风险应对能力，并现场为农户解答疑问。今年，在上海期货交易所的 大力支持下，海通期货与太平洋产险合作开展了云南省勐腊县天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目。项目通过锁 价创新机制，为胶农筑牢价格风险防护网。项目总规模3000吨，投保面积超8.4万亩，保障金额超4600 万元，覆盖了当地重要的橡胶生产区域，为当地胶农提供价格风险保障。目前，项目已全部入场，对稳 定胶农收入、提升种植积极性和保障产业链安全起到了积极作用。 今年是海通期货自2017年以来参与上期所天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目的第九年。作为金融企业，海通期 货将继续履行企业社会责任，强化历史积淀，践行期货行业服务"三农"使命，将深化模式创新、扩大覆 盖范围、延伸服务链条，持续以金融赋能乡村产业，为绘就乡村全面振兴的壮美画卷贡献坚实力量。 2025年中央一号文件提出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in glass futures prices, which rose nearly 3% after a period of decline, raises questions among investors about whether this is a temporary rebound or a sign of a reversal in trend [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous decline in glass futures prices was primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with weak terminal demand persisting throughout the year and failing to meet expectations during the traditional peak season [3]. - As of November 17, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises across the country was only 9.9 days, indicating weak demand [3]. - High inventory levels are a significant factor suppressing prices, with national float glass factory inventories reported at 63.30 million weight boxes, significantly higher than the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in major production areas have been continuously adjusted downward, with prices in Hubei ranging from 990 to 1040 yuan per ton and in the Shahe area from 1020 to 1080 yuan per ton [4]. - The high inventory and weak demand conditions have made glass futures an attractive option for market shorts, leading to a situation where the 2601 contract experienced increased short positions and subsequent price declines [4]. Factors Influencing Price Rebound - The recent price rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in supply expectations, valuation corrections, and policy anticipations [4]. - Expectations of production line cold repairs in December and an unexpected shutdown of a production line in Hubei have led to speculation about tightening supply, prompting some shorts to cover their positions [4]. - Last week, a production line with a capacity of 600 tons per day underwent cold repairs, resulting in a week-on-week reduction of 0.38 million tons in glass production [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the glass futures market is characterized by significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments, with price fluctuations occurring near critical levels [4]. - The upcoming national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21 is expected to release policy signals that could boost market confidence [4]. - Despite the short-term rebound in glass futures prices, many analysts believe this is likely a rebound rather than a reversal, with two core variables to monitor: the extent of supply contraction and the strength of demand recovery [5]. Trading Strategies - The 2601 contract is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting limited downside potential and natural valuation recovery dynamics [5]. - Market participants are advised to consider shifting positions from the 2601 contract to the 2605 contract due to high inventory pressures [6]. - Companies are encouraged to use glass futures to hedge against price volatility and improve liquidity management [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油价迎来年内第十次下调。据国家发展改革委网站最新消息，自11月24 日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油及0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。 卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，本次成品油价下调后，消费者用油成本有所降低。油箱容量在50升的小型 私家车加满一箱油将比此前少花2.5元左右。国内多数地区92号汽油将进入"6元时代"。 原油需求侧整体呈现增速放缓、内部分化的格局。黄柳楠表示，因美国经济数据疲软，全球原油需求增 长预期下调，但增速仍高于2024年。炼油环节成为关键瓶颈，全球炼厂开工率因计划检修、意外停产及 制裁导致的物流问题大幅下滑。与之相反，成品油需求结构性强劲，由于柴油和航空煤油库存处于低 位、工业运输需求旺盛及俄罗斯油品供应中断，裂解价差飙升至多年以来高位。 展望后期油价走势，黄柳楠预计，今年年底到明年年初，Brent、WTI原油价格或考验4月前低，甚至可 能考验50美元/桶，上海原油期价跌幅或小于外盘。建议关注宏观预期潜在反转，届时油价波动或放 大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹表示，俄乌 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...