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再次刷新14年新高!白银大牛市才刚刚开始?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 05:32
相对于黄金,一些分析师认为白银可能被低估了,后者可能有更大的上升空间。 汇丰银行贵金属分析师James Steel在上个月的一份报告中写道,"黄金价格上涨吸引了白银的购买,这些购买者可能是那些尚未充分利用黄金上涨的投资 者。" AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周一亚盘,现货白银突破前高,站上43.50美元/盎司上方,创2011年8月以来新高,现货黄金则徘徊在历史高位附近,投资者正等待美联储官员的一系列讲话 和本周出炉的通胀数据。 今年白银价格已飙升50%,达到2011年以来的最高水平,2025年金价也上涨近40%,有望实现自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 今年全球贸易格局发生调整,美联储独立性面临威胁,美元走弱,投资者纷纷涌入黄金和白银市场。白银也是半导体的关键成分。Rosenberg Research的 David Rosenberg最近写道,"在我的个人账户里,我刚刚买了一大堆金银条。" Gabelli gold基金的投资组合联席经理Chris Mancini说,随着金价走高,可能会有更多散户投资者被白银吸引。《捕熊陷阱报告》(Bear Trap Report)在9月 12日表示 ...
趋势不改震荡上行,沪银突破前高打开空间
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 05:29
Group 1 - Precious metals market rebounds strongly after a brief correction, with silver reaching a 14-year high and leading the gains in the gold and silver sector [1] - As of 11:00 AM, New York silver rose by 1.50% to $43.58 per ounce, while Shanghai silver surged by 3.07% to ¥10,243 per kilogram [1] - Gold also experienced upward movement, with New York gold futures increasing by 0.43% to $3,721.8 per ounce, and Shanghai gold rising by 1.25% to ¥840.16 per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is driven by speculative sentiment and growing industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The gold-silver ratio in the domestic market is around 83, while the international market is approximately 85, indicating potential for silver price correction as it remains above the historical range of 60-80 [1] - Multiple factors, including speculative sentiment, industrial fundamentals, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to enhance silver's price elasticity compared to gold [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, as indicated by officials, reinforces market expectations for continued monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly boosting global market risk aversion and providing strong support for gold and silver prices [2] - The ongoing restructuring of military alliances in the region and the anticipated long-term conflicts are likely to sustain demand for gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [2] Group 4 - Overall, expectations of monetary policy easing, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with bullish sentiment from institutions, are driving upward momentum in gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, key support for New York gold has risen to around $3,600, with potential to reach $3,800, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, aims for a target of $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Market corrections are viewed as opportunities for positioning, with gold and silver expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend [3]
西方核心盟友集体反水!特朗普转向阿拉伯世界
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 04:01
Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and Arab leaders aims to discuss ways to end the Gaza conflict, with invitations sent to leaders from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey [1] - The meeting is scheduled for September 29, just before Trump's reception of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, amidst increasing recognition of Palestine by Western countries [1] - The U.S. remains isolated in its support for Israel, despite growing international condemnation of Israeli actions in the region [1] Group 2 - The White House seeks involvement from Arab and Muslim nations in post-war plans for Gaza, potentially including the deployment of troops to replace Israeli forces [2] - Arab leaders are expected to pressure Trump to urge Netanyahu to end the conflict in Gaza and avoid annexing parts of the West Bank [2] - Concerns from Gulf states regarding Israel's attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar will be a key topic, with leaders seeking assurances from the Trump administration to prevent future incidents [2]
前美联储“三把手”:鲍威尔依旧牢牢掌握美联储!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 03:14
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 主席任期将于明年5月届满的鲍威尔,似乎也在他会后的讲话中,对米兰和白宫进行了有力的反击。 当被问及内部有无考虑过降息50个基点时,鲍威尔说,这"根本没有广泛的支持"。 尽管特朗普抱怨他行动太晚,但鲍威尔并不对今年大部分时间维持利率不变而后悔。鲍威尔说,"我认 为我们等待并观察关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何演变是正确的。" 前纽约联储主席杜德利在上周四的一篇文章中表示,"鲍威尔已牢牢掌控"了联邦公开市场委员会。他补 充说,那些倾向于维持利率不变的官员们遵从了美联储主席的意见,并同意降息。 与此同时,同为特朗普任命的鲍曼和沃勒,拒绝了特朗普要求的更大幅度的降息。杜德利写道,"他们 的行动展示了正直、对美联储使命的承诺以及维持央行独立性的重要性。" 华尔街的其他人也强调了这次的投票差距,特别是考虑到特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克,以及他任命 的米兰并未辞去其白宫经济顾问的职务。 LPL Financial的首席经济学家Jeffrey Roach在上周的一份报告中表示,11比1的决定比预期的更能体现一 致性。 Federated Hermes的高级投资组合经理兼政府流动性团队主管Sus ...
多重因素共振 金银获支撑上行
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 02:39
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a rebound, with silver leading the gains, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for continued interest rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for two more cuts this year [1] - The dollar index rose, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's stance on monetary policy [1] Political Uncertainty - The failure of the Republican funding bill in the House of Representatives to pass in the Senate has heightened the risk of a government shutdown, increasing market volatility [1] - Ongoing political interventions, including a request for a response from a Federal Reserve official to former President Trump, continue to disrupt expectations of monetary policy independence [1] Geopolitical Factors - The European Union has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, contributing to market uncertainty [1] - In the Middle East, discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine by multiple countries are intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, which is raising risk aversion among investors [1] Market Sentiment - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of monetary policy easing expectations, political and geopolitical uncertainties, and bullish sentiment from institutions is providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3,550 and may test the $3,800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, has the potential to rise towards $45 after breaking the $43 mark [2] - Overall, any pullbacks in gold and silver prices are viewed as opportunities for positioning, as both metals remain in a long-term bull market [2]
巴菲特清仓比亚迪,17年3890%收益的传奇落幕
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 02:00
Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has completely exited its stake in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, which was initially a profitable investment [1][3] - The company began reducing its holdings in August 2022, having purchased 225 million shares for $230 million in 2008, with the value surging by 41% to $9 billion in Q2 of the same year [1][4] - By June of the previous year, Berkshire had sold nearly 76% of its shares, reducing its stake to below 5% of BYD's circulating shares, which allowed it to stop disclosing further reductions [1][4] Group 2 - Berkshire Hathaway Energy reported the investment value as zero as of March 31, confirming the complete sale of BYD shares [3][4] - The initial investment was made 17 years ago under the recommendation of Charlie Munger, who described BYD and its CEO as a "damn miracle" [6] - Warren Buffett acknowledged BYD as an "extraordinary company" but indicated a preference for reallocating funds elsewhere [8] Group 3 - Concurrently, Berkshire sold nearly all of its stake in TSMC (approximately $4 billion), with Buffett expressing concerns about the current economic environment [8] - Buffett and Jamie Dimon have advocated for companies to stop providing quarterly earnings guidance, arguing it leads to unhealthy short-term profit focus at the expense of long-term strategy [9][10] - They emphasize the importance of companies continuing to provide actual performance reports to allow stakeholders to assess progress reliably [10]
“甩锅大战”全面爆发!特朗普直言:政府可能要关门一段时间
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 01:56
参议院上周五投票否决了共和党与民主党提出的、旨在维持联邦政府短期资金运转的相互竞争的提案, 从而增加了月底政府关门的风险。 共和党的计划于上周五早些时候在共和党控制的众议院以217票对212票通过,但在参议院未能获得打 破"冗长辩论"所需的60票:投票结果为44票对48票。 宾夕法尼亚州的参议员约翰·费特曼(John Fetterman)是唯一投赞成票的民主党人,而肯塔基州的参议 员兰德·保罗(Rand Paul)和阿拉斯加州的参议员丽莎·穆尔科夫斯基(Lisa Murkowski)是仅有的投反 对票的共和党人。 一项与之竞争的民主党计划也未能达到60票的门槛,该投票结果为47票对45票,基本按党派路线进行, 有七名共和党参议员缺席。 仅有一名民主党人,即缅因州的众议员贾里德·戈尔登(Jared Golden),与共和党人一道投票支持了众 议院共和党的支出法案。两名共和党人——肯塔基州的众议员托马斯·马西(Thomas Massie)和印第安 纳州的维多利亚·斯巴茨(Victoria Spartz)则与所有其他民主党人一道投票反对该法案。 在参议院,民主党人已加强了他们反对一份未经他们同意的法案的决心,这与3 ...
美联储降息后前景依旧不明!这一资产成为华尔街“新宠”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-22 00:46
Group 1 - Bond fund managers at firms like BlackRock and PGIM are focusing on trades that may yield returns even if the Federal Reserve's path deviates due to economic surprises [1] - The Fed's first rate cut in nine months has provided solid returns, leading to the largest annual gain in the U.S. Treasury market since the pandemic [1] - The belief in purchasing intermediate U.S. Treasuries has strengthened, as these bonds offer interest payments and are less affected by rapid economic changes [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was characterized as "risk management," with indications of potentially two more cuts this year [2] - The current dynamics favor the "belly" of the yield curve, particularly bonds with around five-year maturities, which have shown strong performance [2][3] - The updated rate forecasts from the Fed indicate a wide divergence of opinions among officials, with expectations of continued rate cuts in upcoming meetings [4] Group 3 - The strategy of investing in bonds with positive carry and rolling yield is seen as ideal for bond investors [3][4] - Current market pricing may be more accurate than the Fed's predictions, suggesting potential for further gains in the bond market [4] - The Eaton Vance Strategic Income Fund, managed by Morgan Stanley, has achieved a return of 9.5% this year, outperforming 98% of its peers, indicating a selective market ahead [4]
美联储要“变天”了?共和党推新法案,要求终结双重使命!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-19 15:13
Core Viewpoint - A new bill introduced by House Republicans aims to reform the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, focusing primarily on controlling inflation rather than maximizing employment and price stability [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The "Price Stability Act of 2025" seeks to end the Federal Reserve's dual mandate established in 1977, which requires it to maximize employment and ensure price stability [2]. - House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill emphasized the need for a clear focus on inflation control to protect American households [2]. Group 2: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Republican lawmakers argue that the Federal Reserve's expanding regulatory scope has hindered its ability to stabilize prices and threatens its independence [3]. - Treasury Secretary Becerra criticized the Federal Reserve's evolution since the 2008 financial crisis, claiming it has distorted financial markets and weakened its independence [5]. Group 3: Proposals for Reform - There are calls for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operations, including its monetary and regulatory policies, to enhance its independence and accountability [5][6]. - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh suggested a new agreement between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to clarify their goals and enhance independence [6]. Group 4: Public Trust and Future Meetings - Recent polling indicates that only 45% of Americans trust the Federal Reserve to manage the economy effectively, with 33% approving of Chairman Powell's performance [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the next policy meeting is scheduled for October 28-29 [7].
消费“白马股”突发爆雷!下周一停牌戴帽 | 盘后公告精选
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-19 14:23
Group 1 - Juewei Foods faces risk warning and will be labeled as "ST Juewei" due to disclosure violations, with trading suspension on September 22, 2025 [2] - Fosun Pharma's subsidiary has received EU approval for its osteoporosis treatment products, with projected global sales of approximately $7.463 billion in 2024 [3] - Tailin Microelectronics has achieved mass production of its edge AI chips, with sales reaching millions of RMB in Q2 2025 [3] Group 2 - Saiseng Pharma's major shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 2% within three months [4] - Zhongcheng Group's stake in Zhongcheng Co. has increased to 42.12% after transferring shares to Zhongji Import and Export [5] - Dingsheng Co. plans to transfer 4.82% of its shares through an inquiry-based method [6] Group 3 - Fudan Fuhua will be labeled as "ST Fuhua" starting September 23, 2025, due to regulatory warnings [7] - Huadian Co. is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - New Jufeng's shareholders plan to reduce their stake by up to 4.5% [9] Group 4 - Watson Bio's subsidiary has received acceptance for clinical trials of its mRNA vaccine for shingles [10] - Jintou Chengkai is adjusting its major asset restructuring plan, which will not change the controlling shareholder [11] - Hangdian Co. has seen a significant stock price increase of 46.52% over four trading days, raising concerns about potential volatility [12] Group 5 - Shenli Co. plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% due to funding needs [13] - Xinwangda's subsidiary is investing 60 million RMB to establish a private equity fund focused on energy storage projects [14] - Fuxai Technology has set an initial transfer price of 72.08 RMB per share for its inquiry-based transfer [15] Group 6 - Jilin Aodong's subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate for a traditional Chinese medicine [16] - Tianpu Co. has experienced a 13-day stock price surge, raising concerns about potential rapid declines [17] - Zhongchu Co. is increasing its investment in Zhongchu Hengke by 84.3146 million RMB through debt-to-equity swaps [18] Group 7 - Wuzhou Transportation's major shareholder has secured a loan commitment of up to 153 million RMB for share buybacks [19] - Shanxi Fenjiu has elected a new chairman and vice-chairmen for its board [20] - Qujiang Cultural Tourism has confirmed normal operations amid stock price fluctuations [21] Group 8 - Sike Rui will be labeled as "ST Sike Rui" and suspended for one day due to regulatory warnings [22] - Anning Co. is applying for a 3 billion RMB syndicated loan for asset restructuring [23] - Anning Co. has completed a significant debt restructuring plan totaling approximately 192.669 billion RMB [27] Group 9 - China Chemical reported a total contract amount of 256.339 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [28] - Jishi Media has elected a new chairman [29] - Lingyun Optics has adjusted its share repurchase price limit to 52 RMB per share [30] Group 10 - Baoli International plans to invest in semiconductor testing equipment company Hongtai Technology [29] - Pinming Technology's stock will continue to be suspended for up to three additional trading days [30] - Ankai Micro plans to invest 20 million RMB for a 4% stake in Shiqi Future [30]