SHMET 网讯： 周三，特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。他表示："家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国家本身也因此不得不支付比 应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没 有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！" 然而，素有"美联储传声筒"之称的Nick Timiraos表示："特朗普说，如果美联储降低短期利率，美国的利息支出将每年减少1万亿美元。美国在2024年的利息 支出上花费了1.1万亿美元，因此这种说法几乎不可能是真的。" 尽管特朗普称鲍威尔是"史上最糟糕的美联储主席"，共和党人甚至试图对其提起刑事诉讼，但高盛和联邦基金期货市场的分析显示，美联储本月可能不会降 息。 投资者也对此表示认同。联邦基金期货市场预测本月维持基准利率在4.25%至4.5%的几率为97%。然而，同一个市场显示，美联储在本月之后的下一次会 议，也就是9月会议上，降息25个基点的可能性为58%。 高盛的杰西卡·林德尔斯（Jessica Rindels）在今早给客户的一份报告中写道："自联 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it is uncertain whether the EU can achieve a trade agreement similar to Japan's, emphasizing that Japan's success was due to its "innovative financing arrangement" [1] - Japan managed to reduce its tariffs from 25% to 15% through negotiations, which included a $550 billion fund for investment in the U.S. [1] - Bessent downplayed reports of the EU planning to impose a 30% retaliatory tariff on approximately €100 billion (about $117 billion) of U.S. goods, suggesting it is a negotiation strategy [1] Group 2 - Bessent mentioned that the EU's trade surplus with the U.S. means that any escalation in trade issues would have a more severe impact on the EU [2] - He indicated that there is no rush to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with potential candidates including current board members and regional Fed presidents [2] - Bessent confirmed that the process for selecting Powell's successor is underway, but emphasized that it will ultimately be President Trump's decision [2] Group 3 - Bessent expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, stating that an internal review of the Fed's activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [3] - He noted that the expansion of the Fed's functions is jeopardizing its monetary policy independence and suggested that an internal review could be a good starting point [3] - Regular meetings and ongoing communication between Bessent and the Federal Reserve Chairman are still taking place [3]

Group 1 - The European Union plans to impose a 30% tariff on approximately €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs, which will include products like Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [2] - The EU's response includes merging two previously approved tariff lists targeting $210 billion and $720 billion of U.S. products into one comprehensive plan [2] - The tariffs are set to take effect next month if no agreement is reached and the U.S. implements its tariffs after the August deadline [2] Group 2 - EU member states, including Germany, are adopting a tougher stance in response to the U.S.'s hardline negotiation tactics, with Berlin willing to support the activation of the EU's "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) if no agreement is reached [5][6] - The ACI is designed as a deterrent and would allow the EU to initiate broad retaliatory actions, including new taxes on U.S. tech giants and targeted restrictions on U.S. investments [7] - The EU is prioritizing ongoing negotiations with Washington to resolve the tariff dispute before the August deadline, with representatives scheduled to continue talks [7]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 近几日的下跌已使该货币截至周二下午，接近两年来的低点。 如果这种变化持续下去，将对特朗普的议程产生各种后果——而且不仅仅是在贸易方面。 在美国总统特朗普的助手们追踪一个可能产生广泛影响的变化之际，美元在今年前六个月的下跌正引发 一场激辩，从关税的影响方式到美联储的政策，再到美国在世界上的角色，都牵涉其中。 这个问题，即使在特朗普的助手中也显然还是个悬而未决的问题，那就是其净效应是否可能对特朗普的 议程至少包含一些积极的短期后果，或者美元是否需要不惜一切代价得到加强。 商务部长卢特尼克上周末在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的节目中，为弱势美元提出了一个有限的理 由，当他被问及消费价格上涨的问题时，他回答说"美元的下跌在某种程度上完全缓和了关税的影响。" 今年迄今为止，美元的走势——这让一些曾预计特朗普的关税会带来相反压力的经济学家感到意外—— 确实可能提振出口，但也可能使特朗普未来几个月的目标复杂化，主要是通过推高美国消费者购买外国 商品的价格。 特朗普本人则坚定地站在强势美元阵营，正如他几天前重申的那样，他说他"永远不会让美元下滑"。他 补充说，唯一可 ...

Core Insights - The platinum market has tightened to unprecedented levels due to tariff fears and speculative buying, leading to a surge in prices and borrowing costs [2][3] - Spot platinum prices have increased nearly 60% this year, reaching new historical highs, while the one-month borrowing cost has soared to nearly 40% [2][3] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are characterized by extreme tightness, with the depth and breadth of spot premiums being more severe than at any time in the past 20 years [3] - The rising leasing rates are partly due to skepticism among platinum users regarding the sustainability of the price increase, as many participants have historically seen prices fluctuate between $950 and $1,100 per ounce [3] - Following the announcement of tariff exemptions in April, U.S. platinum inventories began to decline, but the unexpected imposition of a 50% tariff on copper has led to a resurgence in platinum premiums [3] Supply and Demand - The World Platinum Investment Council estimates that the supply deficit for platinum this year will approach 1 million ounces, further depleting already diminishing above-ground stocks [4]

Core Points - The European Commission's proposed €2 trillion budget is facing strong opposition from member states, particularly from German Chancellor Merz and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban [2] - Orban argues that a significant portion of the budget, 20-25%, is allocated to Ukraine, with an additional 10-12% going towards repaying previous loans, totaling 30% directed towards areas not included in the previous budget [2][3] - Orban emphasizes the lack of a clear strategic foundation for the budget, questioning its purpose and goals, particularly regarding Ukraine's potential EU membership [2][3] Group 1 - The budget proposal is being rejected by multiple EU leaders, with Merz's government stating that increasing the EU budget is unacceptable while member states are tightening their national budgets [3] - Orban claims that the budget will not survive as EU countries are lining up to reject it, indicating a challenging negotiation process ahead [3] - The need for unanimous approval from all member states for any EU budget agreement complicates the situation, especially with countries like Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia likely to oppose linking "rule of law" sanctions to budget discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The previous seven-year budget faced criticism from conservative and right-wing parties for agreeing to "rule of law" sanctions in exchange for budget approval, resulting in frozen funds for Hungary and Poland [4] - Hungary has approximately €10 billion still frozen, highlighting the financial implications of the ongoing budget negotiations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Fusion, a San Francisco-based fusion energy startup, claims to have developed a method to transmute mercury into gold through nuclear transmutation, potentially solving the age-old alchemical quest of turning base metals into gold [2][3]. Company Overview - Founded in 2023 by Kyle Schiller and Adam Rutkowski, Marathon Fusion aims to tackle key technological challenges in fusion power plant construction [2][3]. - The company currently employs 12 full-time staff and has secured $5.9 million in private investment along with approximately $4 million in government grants [3]. Technological Innovation - The proposed fusion process utilizes neutrons released during fusion reactions to facilitate the transmutation of mercury into gold, with an estimated annual production of about 5,000 kilograms of gold per gigawatt of power generated [2][3]. - The process involves introducing mercury-198 into the breeding blanket of a fusion reactor, where it can be converted into mercury-197, which then decays into stable gold-197 [3][4]. Market Potential - The global annual gold production is approximately 3,500 tons, and the company believes that the gold market is large enough to absorb additional supply without significantly disrupting prices [5]. - The potential revenue from gold production could double the overall revenue of fusion power plants, as the estimated market value of the gold produced would be comparable to the electricity generated [2][5]. Industry Context - The fusion industry has seen a surge in private investment, with $2.6 billion raised in the past year, bringing the total funding to $9.8 billion across 53 companies [5]. - Despite the theoretical feasibility of fusion energy, achieving net energy output remains a significant challenge, with some experts suggesting that commercial fusion power may still be decades away [5][6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the U.S. basic tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with a 50% tariff on copper and key minerals, potentially exacerbating inflation and pressuring economic growth [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions, indicating that tariffs will raise core inflation by 1.7% over 2-3 years [2] - The firm now forecasts a core inflation rate of 3.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.4%, and anticipates GDP growth of 1% for 2025, impacted by tariffs [2] Group 2 - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan setting tariffs on imported goods at 15%, including automobiles, which are a major component of the trade deficit [3] - A separate agreement with the Philippines sets a tariff rate of 19%, similar to that agreed with Indonesia, indicating a trend of lower tariffs in Southeast Asia compared to Vietnam's 20% benchmark [3] - Trump praised the trade agreements as significant victories, claiming the deal with Japan is potentially the largest trade agreement in history [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expects the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to rise by 16 percentage points this year, indicating a slight upward risk to inflation and a slight downward risk to growth [4]

焦煤主力合约早盘打开涨停板，但整体仍维持强势运行，价格仅回落至1101.5元/吨，就再次反弹走高。 市场分析指出，焦煤强势上涨，主要是源自市场关于能源局发布的一则通知。 市场炒作的主要关注点是在于前期煤矿是否存在生产计划不合理的情况，即单月产量不能超过公告产能 的10%。但以钢联测算口径为准，主要煤炭生产省份超产相对较少，仅新疆在6月原煤产量有出现超产 情况。国泰君安期货表示，就近期煤焦盘面价格所呈现出的上涨，更多的是认为来自于情绪宏观扰动为 主。 据中国煤炭运销协会，该文件内容属实，何时开始核查尚不确定。据通知，具体核查内容包括：一是煤 矿2024年全年原煤产量是否超过公告产能（其中已进入联合试运转的煤矿以公告的建设规模为准）， 2025年1-6月单月原煤产量是否超过公告产能的10%；二是企业集团公司在安排2025年计划时，是否向 所属煤矿下达超过公告产能的生产计划及相关经济指标；三是煤矿在安排2025年季度、月度生产计划 时，是否存在不均衡、不合理的情况。 之前在7月14日，中国煤炭运销协会就发文强调，"煤炭企业要守牢安全稳定底线，科学把握生产节奏， 提升煤炭供给质量。加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤 ...

Group 1 - The EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil are unlikely to have a severe impact, making secondary sanctions by the US one of the few remaining economic pressures on the Kremlin [1][4] - The new sanctions lower the price cap on Russian crude oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, effective September 3, and include a mechanism to ensure it remains 15% below the average price of Russian oil [1][3] - A significant addition is the ban on importing refined products made from Russian crude oil, aimed at closing loopholes left by previous sanctions [1][2] Group 2 - The effectiveness of initial sanctions has been limited, as countries like India have significantly increased their imports of Russian oil due to discounts from the price cap [1][3] - In 2024, Russia's oil and petroleum product export revenue is projected to reach $192 billion, significantly higher than its defense budget of $110 billion [3] - The EU's new sanctions package includes an additional 105 vessels sanctioned for evading the initial price cap, bringing the total to 447 [4] Group 3 - Secondary sanctions proposed by Trump could impose a 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil unless a peace agreement is reached within 50 days [5][6] - The potential for secondary sanctions raises concerns about their effectiveness in the global energy market, as they could lead to increased oil prices and inflation, which the US does not want to see [7][8] - Despite escalating sanctions threats, both Russia and oil traders appear relatively unfazed at this time [8]