Jin Shi Shu Ju
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特朗普今日亲赴美联储,与鲍威尔正面对决?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 03:33
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters, which is related to the scrutiny of the ongoing renovation project at the institution [1][3] - The visit is expected to last about one hour and involves Trump and other government officials who have requested to tour the renovation site [1] - Trump's aides have been pressing for a site visit, and there was a previous scheduling conflict with a dinner meeting with senators [1] Group 2 - The renovation project at the Federal Reserve is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, funded by the Federal Reserve itself rather than taxpayers [2] - The project has become a focal point for criticism from White House officials towards Fed Chair Powell, with Trump suggesting that cost overruns could be grounds for dismissal [2] - Despite the criticism, Trump later softened his stance, indicating he does not intend to dismiss Powell before the end of his term in May [2]
碾压式领先!黄金跑赢美股或成新常态?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 02:57
Group 1 - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 20 years, with a return of 616% compared to the S&P 500's 421% [1] - As of Wednesday, gold has increased nearly 29% since the beginning of 2025, while the S&P 500 has only risen 8.1% this year [3] - The recent strong performance of gold is attributed to concerns over government debt levels and a weakening dollar, leading to increased demand for alternative currency assets [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has historically been a hedge against crises, but since 2020, it has shown strong performance even during stable market periods, indicating a new paradigm [4] - The relative performance of gold has fluctuated over the past 20 years, with exceptional performance from 2005 to 2014 due to low confidence in the financial system [7] - Many countries are now including gold in their foreign exchange reserves as part of a long-term strategy to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [7] Group 3 - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has attracted over $8 billion in inflows this year, despite a recent 1.2% decline [7] - The company believes that gold remains a valuable addition to diversified investment portfolios [8]
特斯拉二季度财报惨淡,马斯克:未来几个季度面临困难
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 02:30
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特斯拉(TSLA.O)的困境在周三进一步加剧。该公司公布的第二季度财报显示,经调整后的净利润出现 两位数下滑,此前该季度销量也创下历史最大跌幅。 数据显示,特斯拉二季度经调整后的净利润为14亿美元,较去年同期减少4.19亿美元,跌幅达23%,远 高于13.5%的销售额降幅。按照更为严格的口径计算,净利润下降16%,至12亿美元。 作为核心业务的汽车销售收入在4月至6月期间同比下降16%,整体营收也下滑12%,双双逊于华尔街预 期,显示特斯拉未能如分析师所料维持汽车售价。 二季度每辆车的平均收入也下降了500美元,降至42,231美元。其中,最畅销的Model Y与Model 3销量 同比下滑12%,而售价更高的车型(包括Cybertruck)销量更是暴跌52%。 财报公布后,特斯拉(TSLA)股价在盘后交易中下跌约2%。 外界普遍认为,销量疲软既受到CEO马斯克政治立场引发的舆论影响,也受制于电动车市场竞争加 剧,尤其是来自中国车企的压力。 即使在电动车整体销量增长的市场中,特斯拉的表现也在走下坡路。该公司眼看就要被中国车企比亚迪 超越,后者甚至尚未进 ...
爱泼斯坦文件风波升级:特朗普被曝名字在列,白宫回应矛盾
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 01:58
《华尔街日报》周三报道称,美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪(Pam Bondi)于5月告知总统特朗普,其名字出 现在已定罪的性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦(Jeffrey Epstein)的调查文件中。《华尔街日报》的报道暂未 核实。 这一关于特朗普名字出现在司法部案件记录中的披露,可能加剧已困扰其政府数周的政治危机。多年 来,特朗普的一些支持者一直在散布关于爱泼斯坦客户以及2019年其狱中死亡真相的阴谋论。 白宫在该报道发布后发出了矛盾信号:起初发表声明称其为"假新闻",但一名白宫官员随后告诉路透 社,政府并未否认特朗普的名字出现在部分文件中,并指出特朗普的名字早已包含在邦迪2月为保守派 影响者整理的一批材料中。 特朗普在20世纪90年代至21世纪初与爱泼斯坦交好,20世纪90年代爱泼斯坦私人飞机的飞行记录中多次 出现特朗普的名字。特朗普及其多位家人的名字还出现在爱泼斯坦的联系簿中,与其他数百人并列。 迫于政治压力,特朗普上周指示司法部寻求公开与爱泼斯坦相关的密封大陪审团证词。 这些材料中的大部分已在针对爱泼斯坦前同伙吉斯莱恩·马克斯韦尔(Ghislaine Maxwell)的刑事案件中 公开——马克斯韦尔因儿童性交易等罪 ...
美联储“后鲍威尔时代”猜想升温:交易员押注2026年激进降息
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 01:34
Group 1 - Bond traders are increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates next year, driven by market speculation about a potential leadership change at the Fed to align with President Trump's demand for looser monetary policy [1][2] - The SOFR futures yield spread, reflecting market expectations for Fed rate cuts, has widened recently, with traders now pricing in a 76 basis point cut next year, up from just 25 basis points in April [1] - The belief is growing that the next Fed chair will be more compliant with the President's rate cut requests, especially after Trump's recent criticisms of current chair Jerome Powell [1][2] Group 2 - Several Republican figures have criticized Powell for delaying rate cuts due to concerns over inflation from government tariffs, and there are questions about the Fed's renovation costs [2] - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of potential leadership changes at the Fed, with Wall Street strategists preparing trading recommendations for various outcomes, including Powell's possible dismissal [2] - Potential successors to Powell, such as Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, have expressed support for rate cuts, and Fed governors Waller and Bowman have hinted at supporting cuts as early as the July policy meeting [2] Group 3 - SOFR spread trading has been profitable, with analysts expecting the spread to widen to 100 basis points due to a potential shift to a more dovish Fed chair [3] - Recent dovish comments from Waller and Bowman have led analysts to revise their predictions, now expecting four rate cuts next year instead of maintaining rates after a single cut this year [3] - There is an expectation of a regime change at the Fed next year, with analysts believing that the current resistance to Trump's influence will weaken as new appointments are made [3]
俄乌第三轮会谈无果,特朗普50天最后通牒未破僵局
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 00:51
Core Viewpoint - The recent talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul yielded little progress towards peace, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Trump's ultimatum to Putin [2][3] Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The third round of direct talks lasted less than an hour, with no advancements on ceasefire or hostilities [2] - Ukrainian officials proposed a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin, which Russia has consistently rejected [2] - The lack of progress in negotiations reflects that Trump's recent threats have not compelled Russia to make concessions [2][3] Group 2: Trump's Influence - U.S. government officials attribute the talks to Trump's influence, indicating a rare direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine [3] - Trump's threats of imposing 100% tariffs on Russia's major trade partners if no peace agreement is reached within 50 days have not led to any significant changes in Russia's stance [2][3] - Despite Trump's strong discontent with Russia's actions, analysts suggest he has not taken necessary measures to pressure Russia effectively [3] Group 3: Legislative Actions - Senator Lindsey Graham proposed a bill to impose tariffs up to 500% on Russia and its trade partners, but it was stalled due to Trump's opposition [4] - The White House indicated that Trump wishes to retain control over any decisions regarding sanctions [4] Group 4: Military Support and Strategy - Trump's commitment to provide "Patriot" missiles to Ukraine is seen as insufficient to alter the balance of power in the conflict [5] - Analysts warn that the number of drones and missiles Russia uses to attack Ukraine far exceeds what the West can supply [5] - To effectively counter Russian attacks, Ukraine would require long-range missiles, which the U.S. has been reluctant to provide [5] Group 5: Historical Context of Talks - The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, who previously served as the Minister of Defense [6] - Russia's demands included recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea and military neutrality from Ukraine, which were not met [6] - The ongoing Russian drone attacks on Ukraine indicate a lack of genuine intent to negotiate from the Russian side [6]
美财长贝森特:不急着找下任美联储主席,相信鲍威尔会提前离开理事会
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-24 00:30
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that there is no urgency in determining the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with potential candidates possibly coming from the current Board of Governors or regional Fed presidents [1] - Mnuchin mentioned a long list of excellent candidates, including himself, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller [1] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May next year, while his term as a Board member will last until January 2028 [1] Group 2 - Mnuchin criticized the Fed officials' interpretation of the impact of Trump's tariffs, claiming their analysis is somewhat flawed [2] - He noted that manufacturers and many retailers have absorbed a significant portion of the tariff costs, and many retailers' profit margins became very robust during the pandemic [2] - Mnuchin expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, emphasizing that an internal review of the Fed's activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [2]
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2025年7月24日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-23 23:05
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 据称美国对欧盟商品的基准关税为15% 美日达成贸易协议,对日关税税率为15% 大部分国家或面临15%至50%的简单关税 贝森特:特朗普已经说了,他不会解雇鲍威尔 白宫官员:特朗普政府并未否认特朗普在爱泼斯坦名单上 泽连斯基削弱反腐机构独立性引发民众抗议 何立峰将赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈 印度恢复向中国公民发放旅游签证 市场盘点 周三,随着美国与更多贸易伙伴达成协议,市场避险情绪降温。美元指数依旧疲软,最终收跌0.16%,报97.162。美债收益率全线回升,基准的10年期美债 收益率收报4.388%,2年期美债收益率收报3.886%。 现货黄金连涨三日后回调,在传出欧美接近达成协议的消息后加速下挫,一度接近3380美元关口,最终收跌1.29%,收报3387.23美元/盎司;现货白银持稳 在39美元关口上方,最终收跌0.07%,报39.27美元/盎司。 由于贸易谈判的进展缓解了油市需求担忧,国际油价接近收平。WTI原油在65美元关口附近横盘震荡,最终收跌0.18%, ...
美众议院议长罕见发声:对鲍威尔“感到失望”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-23 15:24
Group 1 - The Speaker of the House, Johnson, expressed disappointment with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, while President Trump criticized Powell for high interest rates [1][2] - Johnson is open to modifying the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which was last significantly amended by the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, aimed at enhancing bank regulation post-financial crisis [2][3] - Johnson emphasized the need for careful consideration before any legal modifications regarding the Federal Reserve's jurisdiction, highlighting the complexities involved [3] Group 2 - House Republicans are initiating work on a follow-up tax and spending bill to address issues left unresolved in Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation, with plans for a smaller tax bill to be introduced in the "deep fall" [3][4] - The Republican party successfully united a fractured majority around a comprehensive bill to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, allocate over $300 billion for defense, border, and immigration spending, and raise the debt ceiling by $50 billion [4]
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-07-23)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-23 14:53
Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]