美国科技股持续三个月的暴跌，让长期受压的价值股显得相对坚挺。华尔街正形成一种日益强烈的共 识：这场板块轮动才刚刚开始。 罗素1000价值指数（Russell 1000 Value Index，RLV）自去年11月初以来已上涨8.6%，跑赢其成长股对 应指数14个百分点。历史上，这种级别的跑赢往往预示着价值股相对成长股将迎来进一步的涨幅。 但这背后也暗藏隐忧：在类似的时间跨度内，价值指数最近两次如此大幅跑赢成长指数，分别发生在 2022年的熊市崩盘和2001年互联网泡沫破裂初期。 华尔街策略师此次也发出警告，称大型科技股主导市场的时代可能正接近尾声。这一转变在周二表现得 淋漓尽致：软件制造商的暴跌引发科技股全面抛售——而科技股在成长指数中占据主导权重。相比之 下，罗素1000价值指数却收于历史新高。 格林鲍姆在1月31日发布的杰富瑞报告中指出，即便经过三个月的上涨登顶，以滚动52周来看，价值股 与成长股的表现"仅回到中性水平"。他补充称，从更长期维度看，"价值股占优"时期的相对跑赢幅度往 往超过10%。 回顾杰富瑞分析师标注的历史时期，格林鲍姆指出，"价值股占优"大多出现在经济衰退前后的均值回归 阶段，或与国内 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Currency Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains a significant upward risk for its 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400 per ounce, attributing January's price fluctuations primarily to Western capital flows rather than speculative behavior, with silver experiencing larger adjustments due to tight liquidity in the London market [1] - Danske Bank indicates that the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has shifted short-term risks favorably for the US dollar, alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence and allowing for a tactical window for dollar rebound [2] - RHB Retail Research suggests that unless gold closes above $5,090 per ounce, the bearish technical outlook remains intact, with strong selling pressure expected at this resistance level [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Currency Risks - ING notes that the Australian dollar faces a risk of weakening due to overly aggressive market expectations for further interest rate hikes, despite the RBA's projected inflation rate of 3.7% for June [4] - Eastern Wealth Management anticipates that the European Central Bank may lower interest rates later this year due to lower-than-expected inflation, with current deposit rates at 2.00% [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Insights - CICC asserts that the choice of Fed Chair is unlikely to significantly impact the normalization of the balance sheet expansion, as current liquidity conditions remain tight, contributing to market panic selling [6] - CITIC Securities predicts a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2026, driven by the need to support banks amid narrowing net interest margins and significant government debt issuance [7] - CITIC Securities highlights a continuing price increase in the electronic components industry, driven by supply-demand tightness and rising upstream metal prices, recommending focus on sectors benefiting from this trend [8] Group 4: Technology and Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that OpenAI will launch its first ads in early February 2026, indicating a shift towards monetization strategies for large models, balancing user experience with revenue generation [9] - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the solid-state battery sector, anticipating significant developments in 2026 as multiple manufacturers prepare for testing and small-scale production [10] - CITIC Securities notes that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant advancements driven by both US and Chinese companies [11] Group 5: Consumer and Market Behavior - Galaxy Securities highlights the strong demand for travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, benefiting OTA platforms and the duty-free sector, with significant revenue growth expected [12] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "Spring Rally" may be more sustained this year due to solid foundations, including policy expectations and increased consumer spending [13] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent VAT adjustment for telecom operators may have a lower-than-expected impact on profits, as companies adapt through technological upgrades [14]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with a strong rebound observed in precious metals and a recovery in coal prices [2][6]. Key Highlights - Silver futures surged by 11% today, while all precious metals experienced a significant rebound [3][4]. - PVC saw a massive increase in open interest, exceeding 100,000 contracts, indicating strong buying interest [3][8]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including the downing of a drone and increased military readiness, has heightened risk aversion in the market [6][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, discussions regarding nuclear negotiations are set to take place on Friday [7]. Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw substantial gains, with gold rising by 7.29% and silver by 11.22% [15]. - Coal futures also experienced a rise, with coking coal increasing by 3.6% to 1,209 CNY/ton, marking a three-week high [16]. Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market corrections after previous declines [15][16]. - The focus remains on upcoming non-farm payroll data and ongoing geopolitical developments, which may sustain high volatility in the market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of methanol at ports decreased by 60,000 tons, while PVC's open interest indicates a strong bottom-fishing sentiment [8][17]. - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia ended a ten-month increase, expected to drop to 2.91 million tons [9]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high volatility and wide fluctuations due to the dual impact of risk aversion and policy expectations [16]. - The sentiment in the double焦 (coking coal) futures market is influenced more by funds and emotions rather than fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [17].

尽管现货价格剧烈震荡，但部分贵金属投资产品的价格却未能同步跟上。管理规模达100亿美元的封闭 式实物贵金属基金——斯普罗特实物金银信托（Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust，CEF），上周 五的交易价格较其资产净值（NAV）折让高达9.5%。此前在1月30日，黄金和白银单日跌幅分别创下逾 11%和31%的历史纪录；不过周二两大贵金属价格均大幅反弹，凸显市场波动性已升至极高水平。 事实上，在1月28日贵金属价格接近峰值时，该基金的折价幅度甚至更大，当日收盘较资产净值折价达 到11.4%的历史极值。该基金的持仓全部为存放于加拿大皇家铸币厂（Royal Canadian Mint）的实物黄 金和白银，外加少量现金，其资产净值会根据市场价格每日更新。 解读这一异象的一种方式是：当日，投资者实质上是以89美分的价格，买入了价值1美元的黄金和白 银。当然，考虑到随后金银价格的暴跌，当时的买入时点堪称糟糕。但对于那些倾向于投资贵金属、并 希望在波动中抄底的逢低买入者而言，此类封闭式实物贵金属基金或构成买入机会——至少在大幅折价 状态持续期间是如此。 贵金属市场的剧烈波动正为黄金和白银投 ...

欧洲最大资产管理公司东方汇理（Amundi）首席执行官表示，公司正减少对美元资产的敞口，并将转 向欧洲及新兴市场。 东方汇理补充称，公司的投资在地域、行业和公司规模方面也已变得更加多元化。 鲍德森发表上述言论之际，美元的抛售潮使其在1月底跌至四年低点，相对于一篮子其他主要货币，美 元在12个月内跌幅超过10%。同期，金价几乎翻倍，并在1月下旬飙升至逼近每盎司5600美元的历史纪 录。 然而，在特朗普提名凯文・沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储主席后，美元、黄金及其他资产价格在 一轮剧烈波动中出现了大幅震荡。 执掌着2.4万亿欧元资产管理规模的瓦莱丽・鲍德森（Valerie Baudson）表示，东方汇理将建议客户在未 来一年减持美元资产。她警告称，若美国经济政策维持不变，"我们将见证美元的持续走弱"。 "在过去的12至15个月里，东方汇理一直在进行多元化配置，并建议客户高度分散投资……未来一年， 我们将继续建议客户分散其头寸，"鲍德森在周二的一次采访中表示。 东方汇理是最新一家表示正考虑削减或对冲美国资产敞口的大型投资者，市场担忧的焦点在于美国总统 特朗普反复无常的经济政策。自去年4月特朗普发动"解放 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates for the first time in over two years, signaling a potential shift in global credit policies as the economy heats up [1][3] - The RBA's decision aligns with market expectations, but its hawkish stance on future rate hikes indicates concerns about inflation not returning to target levels [3][5] - The RBA acknowledges uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of previous policy settings and the concept of neutral interest rates, which complicates monetary policy decisions [3][5] Group 2 - Inflation rates in many countries, including Australia and the U.S., remain above target levels, prompting central banks to reconsider their monetary policies [4][5] - The RBA's statement highlights that inflation is expected to stay above the 2% to 3% target range for some time due to strong household spending and private investment [5] - Investors currently anticipate a 75% probability of another rate hike by the RBA in May [5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy shows signs of acceleration, with GDP growth tracking above 4% and corporate profits increasing significantly [8] - The ISM manufacturing survey indicates a resurgence in factory activity, marking the highest level since 2022, driven by new orders and rising input prices [8][12] - Despite the positive economic indicators, many Federal Reserve officials describe current policy rates as "moderately restrictive," raising questions about their actual impact on the economy [12][14]

消息人士透露，鉴于干预操作成本高昂，且存在引发非预期日元贬值的重大风险，日本首相高市早苗 （Sanae Takaichi）不应指望日本央行出手遏制国债收益率的急剧攀升。 上月，在高市早苗宣布提前举行大选并承诺暂停食品税两年后，日本国债崩盘式暴跌，动荡蔓延至全球 债市。此举引发市场担忧，即扩张性财政支出将进一步加重日本本已高企的债务负担。 日本超长期国债收益率飙升至历史新高，这一轮暴跌令人联想到2022年的"特拉斯冲击"（Truss shock）。当时，英国前首相莉兹・特拉斯（Liz Truss）宣布大规模无资金准备的减税计划，引发英国 国债崩盘和收益率历史性飙升。 随着高市早苗所在政党有望在周日的大选中取得压倒性胜利，并为其扩张性财政政策赢得授权，债券投 资者因担忧日本财政状况恶化而持续保持警惕。 市场波动已引起日本央行内部警惕，但三位了解该行想法的消息人士表示，现阶段干预债市的风险大于 收益。 日本政策制定者面临着一个棘手的权衡：既要遏制国债收益率的急剧上升，又要通过威胁干预汇市来支 撑疲软的日元。 这一挑战使日本央行陷入两难境地，因为任何试图压低长期利率的举措，都将与其中期加息路径相冲 突。日本央行希望通 ...

黄金价格连续第二天上涨，随着逢低买入者在从历史高点史诗级崩盘后抢购贵金属，金价反弹至每盎司5000美元上方。 随着市场风险偏好回归且美元走软，金价在上一交易日上涨逾6%后，周三一度攀升近3%。虽然这一黄色金属目前仍比1月29日创下的历史高点低约10%，但 今年以来已累计上涨约17%。白银也随之上涨。 上个月，在投机势头、地缘政治动荡以及对美联储独立性担忧的支撑下，贵金属价格飙升。然而，市场观察人士曾警告称，涨幅过大且过快。上周末，这股 涨势戛然而止，白银创下有记录以来的最大单日跌幅，黄金也经历了自2013年以来的最大跌幅。 投资者曾在贵金属中建立了大量头寸，投资者涌入杠杆交易所交易产品（ETPs）和一波看涨期权买入潮更是火上浇油。然而，上周五亚盘时段，贵金属突 然崩盘，且跌势一直持续到本周初。 根据彭博社汇编的数据，中国国内最大的四只黄金ETF在周二遭遇了近10亿美元的资金流出，这是有史以来最大的单日降幅，而在上周，同样的这些ETF还 在创纪录地吸纳资金。 美国银行认为，贵金属的波动性将保持高位。美银欧洲、中东和非洲地区大宗商品交易主管Niklas Westermark表示，黄金比白银拥有更强、更长期的投资逻 ...

华尔街对软件股的怀疑态度由来已久，但最近这种情绪已从看空演变成了末日般的恐慌。由于担心人工 智能将给该行业带来毁灭性打击，交易员们正在抛售整个行业的股票。 周二，这种焦虑情绪进一步加剧。在AI初创公司Anthropic发布了一款针对企业内部律师的生产力工具 后，法律软件和出版公司的股价应声暴跌。抛售压力席卷了整个板块，拥有庞大数据分析业务的伦敦证 券交易所集团下跌13%，而汤森路透暴跌16%。CS Disco Inc. 下挫12%，Legalzoom.com Inc. 更是重挫 20%。 软件行业面临的风险已酝酿数月，Anthropic在1月发布的Claude Cowork工具更是让这种被颠覆的恐惧急 剧升温。上周，在Alphabet开始推出能够通过文本或图像提示创建沉浸式世界的Project Genie后，视频 游戏股也被卷入跌势。总的来说，标普北美软件指数已连续三周下跌，导致其在1月下跌15%，创下自 2008年10月以来的最大月度跌幅。 "我问客户，'你们捏着鼻子也要买入的价位在哪里？'即便经历了这番投降式抛售，我还没听到任何人 对底部在哪里有确切的信心，"Favuzza说，"人们只是在抛售一切，根本不 ...

前美联储理事沃什一直呼吁大幅削减央行的金融足迹。在全球金融危机和新冠疫情期间，经过连续几轮 资产购买，美联储持有的资产组合急剧膨胀。 瑞穗证券美国公司表示，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什一直直言不讳地表示希望缩 减央行的资产负债表。要做到这一点，在涉及日常货币市场操作时，将需要一个更加具有"干预主义"色 彩的美联储。 多年来，美国决策者一直采用"充足准备金框架"，旨在保持足够的现金在银行系统中流动，以便贷款机 构能够满足监管要求的流动性规定并结算支付流，而无需向美联储借款。对央行而言，这意味持有大量 美国国债。 回到准备金稀缺且美联储资产负债表规模小得多的环境，可能会导致银行账户透支并在隔夜市场上借入 更多资金，从而增加货币市场的波动性并削弱美联储对其短期利率目标的控制。 瑞穗宏观策略主管多米尼克·康斯坦（Dominic Konstam）在周一的一份报告中写道，截至目前，准备 金"几乎达到了极限，这与联邦基金市场的有序运作是一致的。如果他们缩减资产负债表，那就会成为 一个问题。" 康斯坦认为，这些变化最终将允许符合条件的交易对手更多地依赖美联储的常备回购便利（SRF），市 场参与者可以通过该项目 ...