Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement did not make significant adjustments to its debt issuance strategy, aligning with market expectations, despite prior speculation about measures to lower long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Debt Issuance Strategy - The Treasury plans to maintain the auction sizes for nominal, long-term, and floating-rate bonds unchanged for "at least the next few quarters," a forward-looking guidance that has been in place for two years [1] - The Treasury is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's expansion of short-term Treasury bill purchases and the growing demand from the private sector for these bills [1] - The Treasury reiterated its assessment of the potential to expand the auction sizes for nominal coupon bonds and floating-rate bonds, focusing on structural demand trends and the potential costs and risks of different issuance schemes [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the statement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a daily high of 4.29%, indicating disappointment in the market over the lack of signals for reducing long-term debt supply [2] Group 3: Upcoming Refinancing Auctions - The Treasury announced a total refinancing auction amount of $125 billion for the upcoming week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $42 billion in 10-year bonds, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [4] - This refinancing is expected to raise approximately $34.8 billion in new funds from private investors [4] Group 4: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The Treasury will maintain the current auction sizes for TIPS, having previously expanded TIPS auctions to stabilize their market share [5] - There was a divergence among traders regarding TIPS issuance policy, with some expecting no change while others speculated on an expansion in at least one of the three TIPS auctions this quarter [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Bond Purchases - The current scale of the Federal Reserve's short-term Treasury bill purchases reduces the risk of the Treasury overissuing short-term bills beyond investor capacity [6] - However, the Fed's purchasing plan post-April remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, who has previously advocated for reducing the Fed's securities portfolio [6] - Analysts believe that due to the ongoing large federal budget deficit (nearly $2 trillion annually) and the upcoming maturity of a significant amount of medium-term bonds, the Treasury will ultimately need to expand the issuance of coupon bonds [6]

周三，金价一度反弹至近5100美元关口，此前一日录得17年多来最大单日涨幅，从1983年以来最惨烈的 两日暴跌中企稳。 路透社一项调查显示，随着分析师大幅上调黄金价格预期，其2026年黄金目标价创下历史新高。他们预 计，地缘政治不确定性与各国央行持续大举购金仍是价格上涨的核心驱动因素。 过去三周针对30位分析师与交易员的调查显示，2026年黄金均价的预期中值为每盎司4746.50美元，这 是路透社自2012年开展该调查以来的最高年度预测，较2025年10月的4275美元显著上修。而一年前的同 类调查中，2026年黄金均价预测仅为2700美元，金价近期的暴涨已促使分析师多次上调预期。 贵金属经纪商GoldCore首席执行官戴维・罗素（David Russell）表示："我们正进入一个特殊时期，数 十年来支撑全球经济与地缘政治稳定的制度体系，其合法性与韧性正遭遇一代人以来最严峻的考验。" 黄金看涨逻辑未被破坏 兼具避险属性与工业金属属性的白银，2025年涨幅超过147%，并在2026年1月29日延续涨势至121.62美 元的历史新高，周一低至71.29美元，但随后连续两个交易日反弹，截至发稿一度站上92美元关口。 ...

1962年古巴导弹危机被视为人类史上最接近蓄意核战争的时刻，此后数十年间谈判达成的军控协议网 络，其核心目标始终是降低灾难性核交火的概率。除非华盛顿与莫斯科在最后时刻达成某种谅解，否则 当《新削减战略武器条约》（New START）到期时，世界上两个最大的核大国将在半个多世纪以来首 次失去任何限制。 美俄之间最后一项核军控条约即将在数小时内到期，新一轮军备竞赛风险随之上升。 美国总统特朗普在军控问题上释放的信号前后不一。他上月曾表示，若条约到期，将达成一份"更好的 协议"。 随着到期时刻临近，教皇方济各（Pope Francis）敦促双方切勿放弃条约设定的限制。 "我紧急呼吁，切勿让这一机制失效。"这位首位美国出生的教皇在每周公开接见活动中表示，"此刻比 以往任何时候都更需要以共同伦理取代恐惧与不信任的逻辑，引导各方选择符合共同利益的道路。" 美国科学家联合会核信息项目副主任马特・科尔达（Matt Korda）指出，在未能就延长条约核心条款达 成协议的情况下，俄美两国若有意扩充核弹头数量，将不再受任何约束。 "条约失效后，双方可自由为已部署导弹和重型轰炸机加装数百枚额外核弹头，在最极端情况下，其现 役部署核武 ...

1月建筑业就业人数增加0.9万人，12月增加0.1万人；薪资增速年率中值为4.7%，12月为 4.2%。 1月制造业就业人数减少0.8万人，12月减少0.5万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.0%，12月为 4.8%。 1月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.4万人，12月增加1.1万人；薪资增速年率中值为 4.3%，12月为4.2%。 薪资处理服务商ADP周三发布的报告显示，美国1月劳动力市场几乎毫无起色，新增就业人数甚至低于 原本低迷的市场预期。 北京时间21:15，美国1月ADP就业人数录得增加2.2万人，不及市场预期中值的4.8万人，也低于彭博调 查的所有经济学家预估值，前值从4.1万人下修至3.7万人。 ADP报告重要行业就业人数和薪资变化如下： 1月金融服务业就业人数增加1.4万人，12月增加0.6万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.2%，12月 为5.2%。 1月专业/商业服务就业人数减少5.7万人，12月减少2.9万人；薪资增速年率中值为5.2%，12 月为5.2%。 ADP报告指出，在招聘表现平淡的一个月里，若不是教育和医疗服务行业激增7.4万人，1月私营部门就 业增长将陷入负值区间。拖累整体表现的主要是制 ...

美国科技股持续三个月的暴跌，让长期受压的价值股显得相对坚挺。华尔街正形成一种日益强烈的共 识：这场板块轮动才刚刚开始。 罗素1000价值指数（Russell 1000 Value Index，RLV）自去年11月初以来已上涨8.6%，跑赢其成长股对 应指数14个百分点。历史上，这种级别的跑赢往往预示着价值股相对成长股将迎来进一步的涨幅。 但这背后也暗藏隐忧：在类似的时间跨度内，价值指数最近两次如此大幅跑赢成长指数，分别发生在 2022年的熊市崩盘和2001年互联网泡沫破裂初期。 华尔街策略师此次也发出警告，称大型科技股主导市场的时代可能正接近尾声。这一转变在周二表现得 淋漓尽致：软件制造商的暴跌引发科技股全面抛售——而科技股在成长指数中占据主导权重。相比之 下，罗素1000价值指数却收于历史新高。 格林鲍姆在1月31日发布的杰富瑞报告中指出，即便经过三个月的上涨登顶，以滚动52周来看，价值股 与成长股的表现"仅回到中性水平"。他补充称，从更长期维度看，"价值股占优"时期的相对跑赢幅度往 往超过10%。 回顾杰富瑞分析师标注的历史时期，格林鲍姆指出，"价值股占优"大多出现在经济衰退前后的均值回归 阶段，或与国内 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Currency Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains a significant upward risk for its 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400 per ounce, attributing January's price fluctuations primarily to Western capital flows rather than speculative behavior, with silver experiencing larger adjustments due to tight liquidity in the London market [1] - Danske Bank indicates that the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has shifted short-term risks favorably for the US dollar, alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence and allowing for a tactical window for dollar rebound [2] - RHB Retail Research suggests that unless gold closes above $5,090 per ounce, the bearish technical outlook remains intact, with strong selling pressure expected at this resistance level [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Currency Risks - ING notes that the Australian dollar faces a risk of weakening due to overly aggressive market expectations for further interest rate hikes, despite the RBA's projected inflation rate of 3.7% for June [4] - Eastern Wealth Management anticipates that the European Central Bank may lower interest rates later this year due to lower-than-expected inflation, with current deposit rates at 2.00% [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Insights - CICC asserts that the choice of Fed Chair is unlikely to significantly impact the normalization of the balance sheet expansion, as current liquidity conditions remain tight, contributing to market panic selling [6] - CITIC Securities predicts a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2026, driven by the need to support banks amid narrowing net interest margins and significant government debt issuance [7] - CITIC Securities highlights a continuing price increase in the electronic components industry, driven by supply-demand tightness and rising upstream metal prices, recommending focus on sectors benefiting from this trend [8] Group 4: Technology and Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that OpenAI will launch its first ads in early February 2026, indicating a shift towards monetization strategies for large models, balancing user experience with revenue generation [9] - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the solid-state battery sector, anticipating significant developments in 2026 as multiple manufacturers prepare for testing and small-scale production [10] - CITIC Securities notes that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant advancements driven by both US and Chinese companies [11] Group 5: Consumer and Market Behavior - Galaxy Securities highlights the strong demand for travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, benefiting OTA platforms and the duty-free sector, with significant revenue growth expected [12] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "Spring Rally" may be more sustained this year due to solid foundations, including policy expectations and increased consumer spending [13] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent VAT adjustment for telecom operators may have a lower-than-expected impact on profits, as companies adapt through technological upgrades [14]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with a strong rebound observed in precious metals and a recovery in coal prices [2][6]. Key Highlights - Silver futures surged by 11% today, while all precious metals experienced a significant rebound [3][4]. - PVC saw a massive increase in open interest, exceeding 100,000 contracts, indicating strong buying interest [3][8]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including the downing of a drone and increased military readiness, has heightened risk aversion in the market [6][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, discussions regarding nuclear negotiations are set to take place on Friday [7]. Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw substantial gains, with gold rising by 7.29% and silver by 11.22% [15]. - Coal futures also experienced a rise, with coking coal increasing by 3.6% to 1,209 CNY/ton, marking a three-week high [16]. Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market corrections after previous declines [15][16]. - The focus remains on upcoming non-farm payroll data and ongoing geopolitical developments, which may sustain high volatility in the market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of methanol at ports decreased by 60,000 tons, while PVC's open interest indicates a strong bottom-fishing sentiment [8][17]. - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia ended a ten-month increase, expected to drop to 2.91 million tons [9]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high volatility and wide fluctuations due to the dual impact of risk aversion and policy expectations [16]. - The sentiment in the double焦 (coking coal) futures market is influenced more by funds and emotions rather than fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [17].

尽管现货价格剧烈震荡，但部分贵金属投资产品的价格却未能同步跟上。管理规模达100亿美元的封闭 式实物贵金属基金——斯普罗特实物金银信托（Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust，CEF），上周 五的交易价格较其资产净值（NAV）折让高达9.5%。此前在1月30日，黄金和白银单日跌幅分别创下逾 11%和31%的历史纪录；不过周二两大贵金属价格均大幅反弹，凸显市场波动性已升至极高水平。 事实上，在1月28日贵金属价格接近峰值时，该基金的折价幅度甚至更大，当日收盘较资产净值折价达 到11.4%的历史极值。该基金的持仓全部为存放于加拿大皇家铸币厂（Royal Canadian Mint）的实物黄 金和白银，外加少量现金，其资产净值会根据市场价格每日更新。 解读这一异象的一种方式是：当日，投资者实质上是以89美分的价格，买入了价值1美元的黄金和白 银。当然，考虑到随后金银价格的暴跌，当时的买入时点堪称糟糕。但对于那些倾向于投资贵金属、并 希望在波动中抄底的逢低买入者而言，此类封闭式实物贵金属基金或构成买入机会——至少在大幅折价 状态持续期间是如此。 贵金属市场的剧烈波动正为黄金和白银投 ...

欧洲最大资产管理公司东方汇理（Amundi）首席执行官表示，公司正减少对美元资产的敞口，并将转 向欧洲及新兴市场。 东方汇理补充称，公司的投资在地域、行业和公司规模方面也已变得更加多元化。 鲍德森发表上述言论之际，美元的抛售潮使其在1月底跌至四年低点，相对于一篮子其他主要货币，美 元在12个月内跌幅超过10%。同期，金价几乎翻倍，并在1月下旬飙升至逼近每盎司5600美元的历史纪 录。 然而，在特朗普提名凯文・沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储主席后，美元、黄金及其他资产价格在 一轮剧烈波动中出现了大幅震荡。 执掌着2.4万亿欧元资产管理规模的瓦莱丽・鲍德森（Valerie Baudson）表示，东方汇理将建议客户在未 来一年减持美元资产。她警告称，若美国经济政策维持不变，"我们将见证美元的持续走弱"。 "在过去的12至15个月里，东方汇理一直在进行多元化配置，并建议客户高度分散投资……未来一年， 我们将继续建议客户分散其头寸，"鲍德森在周二的一次采访中表示。 东方汇理是最新一家表示正考虑削减或对冲美国资产敞口的大型投资者，市场担忧的焦点在于美国总统 特朗普反复无常的经济政策。自去年4月特朗普发动"解放 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates for the first time in over two years, signaling a potential shift in global credit policies as the economy heats up [1][3] - The RBA's decision aligns with market expectations, but its hawkish stance on future rate hikes indicates concerns about inflation not returning to target levels [3][5] - The RBA acknowledges uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of previous policy settings and the concept of neutral interest rates, which complicates monetary policy decisions [3][5] Group 2 - Inflation rates in many countries, including Australia and the U.S., remain above target levels, prompting central banks to reconsider their monetary policies [4][5] - The RBA's statement highlights that inflation is expected to stay above the 2% to 3% target range for some time due to strong household spending and private investment [5] - Investors currently anticipate a 75% probability of another rate hike by the RBA in May [5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy shows signs of acceleration, with GDP growth tracking above 4% and corporate profits increasing significantly [8] - The ISM manufacturing survey indicates a resurgence in factory activity, marking the highest level since 2022, driven by new orders and rising input prices [8][12] - Despite the positive economic indicators, many Federal Reserve officials describe current policy rates as "moderately restrictive," raising questions about their actual impact on the economy [12][14]