以色列与伊朗因核计划爆发的12日冲突已过去半年，如今以色列官员发出预警：伊朗全力重建弹道导弹 库，两国恐再度爆发军事冲突。 以色列对伊红线大幅收紧，新冲突爆发概率陡升 "我们从不主动寻求对抗，但会紧盯任何潜在危险。"内塔尼亚胡说道。 针对伊朗弹道导弹研发发起打击，意味着以色列对伊朗的红线已大幅收紧。今年6月以色列发动突袭 时，核心打击目标是伊朗核计划——以色列将其视作关乎国家存亡的致命威胁。 事实上，以色列曾将摧毁伊朗常规远程武器列为其12日冲突的作战目标，且在冲突结束后警告伊朗：无 论重建核设施还是导弹体系，都将招致军事打击。以色列军事情报局伊朗分部前负责人、现任以色列国 家安全研究所高级伊朗研究员丹尼·西特里诺维奇（Danny Citrinowicz）表示，将弹道导弹研发划为红 线，会让两国明年爆发新冲突的概率大幅上升。 此番表态正值内塔尼亚胡筹备赴美之际，他将在年末与美国总统特朗普举行会晤。一名以色列官员透 露，以色列对伊朗弹道导弹研发进度的评估、以及后续可能采取的军事行动，将成为两国领导人会谈的 核心议题。 目前尚无法确定特朗普政府将如何看待以色列对伊新一轮打击计划。当下美方正敦促以色列落实由美国 斡 ...

Core Insights - The potential for silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce by 2026 has become a focal point for precious metal market strategists, driven by structural monetary dynamics rather than traditional technical indicators [1] - The combination of supply constraints, accelerating technological demand, and currency devaluation creates a scenario that far exceeds traditional precious metal cycles [1] Group 1: Price Threshold and Market Dynamics - A three-digit silver price refers to levels above $100 per ounce, significantly impacting portfolio allocation and wealth preservation strategies [2] - Historical analysis shows that since silver peaked at approximately $49.45 per ounce in 1980, its purchasing power relative to money creation has significantly declined, indicating that achieving true inflation-adjusted parity requires much higher nominal prices [2] - Current market positioning indicates that to reach $100 per ounce, silver would need to increase by at least 43% from its benchmark of $70 per ounce [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints and Industrial Demand - Global strategic silver inventory is a critical factor supporting rising silver prices, with major countries having depleted their reserves through technological advancements and strategic sales [11] - The transition of silver from a monetary metal to an industrial necessity is driven by the expansion of solar energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics, creating structural demand growth that exceeds traditional mining supply responses [12] - The mining industry faces structural challenges that limit its ability to respond to rising prices, including declining ore grades and lengthy development cycles for new mines [15][16] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory suggests a potential interest rate cut cycle in 2026, which historically correlates with conditions favorable for precious metal price breakthroughs [6] - Geopolitical tensions and trade wars may exacerbate supply shortages, particularly with major producing countries implementing export restrictions [26] - The anticipated economic downturn in 2026 could lead to increased demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, especially if stock market valuations decline significantly [24] Group 4: Mathematical Models and Predictions - Mathematical models suggest that if gold prices reach $6,000 to $8,000 per ounce, silver could achieve three-digit prices based on historical gold-silver ratios [30] - Industry analysis predicts a continuous annual silver supply gap of 150 to 200 million ounces by 2030, indicating that physical shortages could lead to exponential price increases [28] - The potential for a currency reset involving central bank digital currencies could further drive demand for silver, as historical precedents show that monetary system changes can lead to significant increases in precious metal prices [30]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts generally expect the stock market to continue its upward trend next year, but unforeseen events and risks could disrupt this outlook. Morgan Stanley identified three potential unexpected factors that could impact the market in 2026, predicting a 13% increase in the S&P 500 index due to strong corporate earnings and a "rolling recovery" in the U.S. economy [1]. Group 1: Jobless Productivity Boom - The U.S. economy may experience a "jobless productivity boom," which could suppress inflation and open the door for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A weak job market could help contain wage growth and inflation, while accelerated productivity gains would support stable economic growth, potentially driving core inflation below 2% [1][2]. Group 2: Stock-Bond Paradigm Shift - The typical inverse relationship between stock and bond prices may reverse again. In 2025, both markets rose steadily, driven by a "bad news is good news" dynamic, where weak economic data fueled optimism for Fed rate cuts. However, if inflation falls to the Fed's target, this dynamic could shift back, making bonds a safe haven and a hedge against inflation [3]. Group 3: Surge in Commodity and Energy Prices - Commodity prices, including precious metals, saw significant increases in 2025 and may continue this trend in 2026. Factors such as ongoing Fed rate cuts, rising demand from China, and a weaker dollar could lead to a "blowout" in commodity prices. Predictions indicate that energy prices and overall commodity performance will improve due to supply constraints and increased demand driven by AI-related transactions [4][5][6].

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）正处于其政府生涯中可能具有决定性意义的事件的关键时 刻。 贝森特设计的筛选流程旨在避免这种失望——无论是对总统还是对他自己而言。他从一开始就设定了目 标：寻找支持降息、并愿意在制定货币政策时与白宫更好协作的候选人。贝森特已向特朗普提交了4名 最终候选人名单供其考量。 一位熟悉筛选过程的人士表示，贝森特并未支持任何特定候选人，而是专注于流程本身。 主要候选人被称为"两个凯文"。凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是特朗普的长期经济顾问，现任国家经济 委员会（National Economic Council）主任。凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是前美联储理事，特朗普在第一 任期内曾考虑让他担任主席一职。 另外两名候选人——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和贝莱德（BlackRock）高管里 克·里德（Rick Rieder）——由于与特朗普的私人关系较弱，被认为当选可能性小得多。 原本的第五名候选人、美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）已退出竞争。 美国总统特朗普表示，将在明年1月初选出下一 ...

Global Market Outlook - The global market in 2026 is characterized by a blend of resilience and risks, influenced by divergent monetary policies, the acceleration of AI, and structural market differentiation [1][2] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that fiscal stimulus and robust corporate and household balance sheets will support continued global growth, despite weakening corporate confidence and a slowing labor market [1][2] Stock Market - Morgan Stanley holds a positive outlook for the global stock market in 2026, expecting double-digit gains in both developed and emerging markets driven by strong earnings growth, declining interest rates, and the ongoing rise of AI [7] - The AI-driven supercycle is expected to propel record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion across various sectors, creating both winners and losers [7] - The S&P 500 index is projected to see a 13%-15% super trend earnings growth over the next two years due to the AI supercycle [7] Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical juncture, with structural imbalances emerging as demand shifts towards technology capital expenditures and employment growth stagnates [12] - Morgan Stanley estimates a 35% probability of recession in the U.S. and globally in 2026, although fiscal stimulus is expected to boost GDP growth in the first half of 2026 [12][13] Interest Rate Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that most developed markets will see economic growth at or above potential levels in 2026, with inflation continuing to decline but remaining sticky in some economies [14] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates by 50 basis points [14] Commodity Predictions - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2026, with supply growth anticipated to outpace demand growth significantly [17] - Morgan Stanley maintains a Brent crude oil price forecast of $58 per barrel for 2026, with gold prices projected to rise to $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 [17][19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI technology and its implications for various sectors, predicting significant changes by 2026 [2] Group 1: AI and Robotics - Major tech conferences are expected to showcase AI-driven robots capable of performing household tasks with improved accuracy and less training [3] - Google has demonstrated robots that can classify waste based on voice commands, indicating advancements in AI integration into robotics [3] - The next frontier for large language models is expected to be the physical world, enhancing robots' capabilities [3] Group 2: Market Adjustments - After a period of rapid growth, leading AI companies may need to recalibrate their strategies, potentially leading to layoffs and restructuring [4] - OpenAI's workforce has grown fivefold to approximately 4,500 employees, but there are concerns about whether the right people are in the right positions [4] - The IPO landscape for 2026 is anticipated to be robust, with companies like Discord and Stripe expected to go public [5] Group 3: Employee Monitoring and AI - Companies are increasingly using monitoring software to train AI agents for automating tasks, raising concerns about employee privacy and job security [6] - The emergence of AI tools that can automate complex tasks may lead to heightened fears of job loss among employees [6] Group 4: Privacy and Legal Concerns - AI software that records meetings without participants' knowledge is gaining traction, raising ethical and legal questions about privacy [7] - The potential for significant data breaches or privacy lawsuits related to AI usage is expected to increase by 2026 [7] Group 5: Autonomous Vehicles - The expansion of autonomous taxi services is projected for 2026, with Waymo planning to increase its weekly rides to over 1 million [9] - Despite concerns about accidents, data suggests that autonomous taxis are rarely the direct cause of incidents, indicating a safer operational environment compared to human drivers [9]

"不确定性仍然是全球经济的一个决定性特征，"世界黄金协会高级市场策略师Joe Cavatoni表示。"在这 种环境下，黄金作为战略分散工具和稳定源变得越来越具有吸引力。" 对于一些投资者来说，黄金的软肋在于它不像债券那样支付利息。但当美联储像过去几个月那样降低利 率时，美债收益率往往会下降，从而使黄金更具吸引力。 今年年初，黄金期货交易价格约为每盎司2640美元。本周一，金价攀升至每盎司4500美元以上的历史新 高。摩根大通的分析师预计，2026年金价将升至每盎司5000美元以上。 黄金今年71%的涨幅远远超过了仅上涨18%的标普500指数。在2024年，黄金期货上涨了27%，而标普指 数上涨了24%。 对美联储在2026年进行部分降息的预期正在支撑金价上涨。美元走软也助推了金价，因为这使得购买黄 金对国际投资者来说相对更便宜。 黄金珠宝商和拥有黄金首饰的人正从更高的价格中受益。而且，这场淘金热不仅仅是由美国人在好市多 抢购金条推动的，更是各国按吨购买黄金的结果。央行与地缘政治 黄金正迎来自1979年以来表现最好的一年。在纽约交易的黄金期货今年已飙升近71%，有望创下46年来 的最大年度涨幅。上一次黄金表现如 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by President Trump in addressing American consumers' concerns about affordability, despite low gasoline prices [1][2] - According to AAA, the average price of unleaded gasoline in December reached its lowest level of the year at $2.85 per gallon, which is $0.18 cheaper than last year [1] - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating increasing discontent with Trump's economic management [1] Group 2 - Jason Furman highlights that consumers are primarily focused on rising grocery prices, which have increased nearly 30% over the past five years, complicating the economic outlook [2] - The U.S. economy grew at its strongest pace in two years, with a GDP growth of 4.3%, surpassing analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% a year ago [2] - Furman expresses uncertainty about the "K-shaped economy," noting that while low prices persist, wage growth remains strong, although the lowest income quartile has seen a decline in wage growth from 7.5% to about 3.5% [2][3] Group 3 - Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, connects economic growth and rising unemployment to the "K-shaped economy," suggesting that companies are achieving growth without hiring, which may be exacerbated by AI replacing jobs [3] - The current productivity gains are largely attributed to companies being hesitant to hire and trying to operate more efficiently [3]

Group 1 - The current job market in the U.S. is challenging, with concerns about potential layoffs in 2026, but Morgan Stanley suggests many companies may avoid significant workforce reductions [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, indicates that avoiding large-scale layoffs in 2026 is contingent on companies continuing to raise prices after increasing them throughout 2025 [1] - The two major macro themes for the U.S. in 2025 are rising layoffs and persistent inflation, with companies initially reducing hiring and workforce to avoid price hikes due to tariff pressures [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline view that existing tariffs will push core inflation to 3% by early 2026, with signs already visible in consumer goods costs [2] - The analysis reveals that companies have begun to recover some of the losses incurred in early 2025 due to tariffs, which is a positive development as many firms can raise prices while retaining most of their customer base [2] - The argument that higher prices can prevent layoffs in 2026 is valid only if customers continue to tolerate increased costs, with uncertainty about how high prices can rise before deterring shoppers [2]

Economic Outlook - The Trump administration projects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 3%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can continue to lower interest rates in this environment [2][7] - Joe Lavorgna, an advisor to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, indicates that the current economic growth is driven by deregulation and growth policies, alongside a boost in capital spending, resulting in a non-inflationary prosperity [2][7] Federal Reserve Policy - Lavorgna emphasizes that if the economy continues to grow at 3% next year, it would lead to lower inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further [2][4] - Trump expresses a desire for the next Federal Reserve chair to lower rates if the economy performs well, criticizing the current market reaction to good news due to fears of immediate rate hikes [3][8] Investment Trends - Despite strong overall GDP growth in Q3, business investment growth has slowed to 2.8%, and equipment investment growth has decreased to 5.4%, with non-residential structural investment contracting at a rate of 6.3% [9] - Lavorgna attributes the weakness in structural investment to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, suggesting that lower rates could lead to more factory construction and higher-paying jobs [4][10] AI and GDP Impact - Lavorgna argues that the impact of AI on GDP data is overestimated, as much of the spending is B2B and does not contribute to GDP [5][10] - He forecasts that Q4 growth could reach 3%, which would bring the annual growth rate slightly below 3%, indicating a strong economic performance [5][10]