Iron Ore - The "anti-involution" policy supports market sentiment and prices; rumors suggest the West Mandeau iron ore project requires a matching smelting plant, coupled with a global shipping volume decline, leading to a temporary tightening of supply; port inventory remains relatively low after destocking; steel mills have strong expectations for resumption of production and pre-holiday restocking demand [1] - Key events to monitor include steel mill blast furnace operating rates, daily pig iron production, apparent steel consumption and inventory changes, global iron ore shipping and arrival volumes, and domestic real estate policies and economic data in China [1] Coking Coal - Increased occurrences of auction failures or discounted transactions for Shanxi coking coal; the number of trucks crossing from Mongolia has returned to high levels; the first round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with a second round expected; steel mill profits are narrowing, leading to demand-driven procurement of raw materials [1] - Key events to monitor include the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, weekly coal mine operating rates, raw coal inventory, and coking plant and steel mill coking coal inventory data [1] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production continues to increase, with overall supply being very ample; social inventory is at a historical high; market expectations for future new capacity remain; CATL's resumption of production may be faster than previously anticipated [1] - Key events to monitor include whether CATL can resume production as scheduled in November, the production plans for cathode materials, and changes in weekly lithium carbonate production and inventory [1] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs remains excessive, with abundant output; spot prices continue to weaken, reaching new lows for the year; the downstream slaughter sector has limited capacity to purchase at high prices [1] - Key events to monitor include the pig production capacity regulation meeting on September 16, the actual capacity reduction execution of major enterprises, and data on the breeding sow inventory and live pig slaughter weights [1] Crude Oil - In August, OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels per day; U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.495 million barrels per day; the North American summer driving season has ended; global crude oil inventory continues to trend upwards [1] - Key events to monitor include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the EU's final plan for the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and whether OPEC+ will take emergency production cuts due to falling oil prices [1] Shipping Industry - The SCFI for European routes has decreased; major shipping companies have seen a decline in average container prices by the end of September; the Eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index fell short of expectations, with a weakening macroeconomic environment suppressing trade demand; ongoing pressure from new ship deliveries continues to pose a risk of oversupply in the medium to long term [1][2] - Key events to monitor include weekly opening quotes from leading shipping companies like Maersk, weekly changes in SCFIS and SCFI indices, and the impact of European economic data and geopolitical situations on demand [2] Palm Oil - Palm oil inventory reached its widest level since 2020 in August, with further increases expected in September; the White House's request for small refineries to be exempt from biofuel blending obligations is lower than industry expectations; Indonesia is considering implementing a B45 biodiesel plan before advancing to B50 [2] - Key events to monitor include high-frequency data from Malaysia's SPPOMA, ITS, SGS, and AmSpec, the strength of stocking demand ahead of India's Diwali festival, and the final ruling on the U.S. biodiesel policy (RFS) and EPA blending obligations [2] Precious Metals - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising; geopolitical events, such as attacks in Doha, have increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven; central banks continue to purchase gold, and investment demand for silver is growing [2] - Key events to monitor include the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting, U.S. CPI and PCE data, initial jobless claims, non-farm payroll reports, and potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2]

Core Insights - In September, U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month due to concerns over the labor market and prices [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for September fell from 58.2 in August to 55.4, below market expectations [3]. - The current conditions index decreased from 61.7 in August to 61.2, while the expectations index dropped from 55.9 to 51.8 [4]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Consumers expect a 4.8% annualized increase in prices over the next year, unchanged from the previous month [3]. - Long-term inflation expectations for the next five to ten years rose to 3.9%, up from 3.5% the previous month [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - There is a significant increase in consumers' perceived probability of personal unemployment, indicating heightened anxiety about potential negative developments in the labor market [3]. - Recent data shows a substantial slowdown in the labor market, with only 22,000 jobs added in August [3]. Group 4: Tariff Concerns - Approximately 60% of surveyed consumers expressed concerns regarding tariffs, contributing to the decline in consumer confidence [4]. - Confidence among Republicans and independents fell to a four-month low, while there was a slight improvement among Democrats [4].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Trends - The US dollar index showed weak fluctuations this week, influenced by employment and inflation data, with a current value of 97.66, marking a potential second consecutive week of decline [1] - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a peak of approximately $3674 per ounce, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak of $3590 from January 1980, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [1] - The US employment market showed weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, exceeding market expectations, and a significant downward revision of 911,000 in non-farm payrolls for the upcoming year [10] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained key interest rates, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, with the deposit rate at 2% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [25] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower rates multiple times before the end of 2025, with a 10.9% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September [10][5] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Oracle's stock surged by 36%, driven by a significant cloud computing contract with OpenAI valued at $300 billion, leading to a temporary increase in founder Larry Ellison's net worth to $393 billion [22][23] - Cambrian's fundraising plan was approved by the regulatory authority, aiming to raise up to 39.85 billion yuan for projects related to large model chips and software platforms [21] Group 4: Geopolitical Events Impacting Markets - Oil prices experienced a rise due to renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East following Israeli airstrikes in Qatar, with expectations of a weekly increase [1] - The recent airstrike by Israel on Hamas leaders in Qatar has drawn international condemnation and raised concerns about escalating tensions in the region [14][15] Group 5: Market Reactions to Political Events - Argentina's financial markets faced a significant downturn following President Milei's electoral defeat, with the Merval index experiencing its largest single-day drop since March 2020 [20] - The political turmoil in France, marked by widespread protests against budget cuts, highlights ongoing challenges in governance and fiscal management [26] Group 6: Industry-Specific Changes - The gold market is undergoing changes with tighter domestic regulations in China and new import policies in Vietnam aimed at stabilizing prices and stimulating the economy [18] - Apple launched its iPhone 17 series, but initial market reactions were mixed, indicating potential challenges in consumer engagement and competition in the smartphone sector [28][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is losing patience with President Putin regarding the stalled efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening new economic sanctions against Russia [2][3] - Trump indicated that he has already taken significant actions to penalize Russia, including imposing tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian energy, emphasizing that the issue is more severe for Europe than for the U.S. [3] - The Kremlin stated that negotiations with Ukraine are currently at a "standstill," despite Trump's previous push for direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is expected to urge G7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing Russian oil during the upcoming Treasury meeting [4] - A proposal suggests that G7 countries should establish a legal framework to confiscate frozen Russian sovereign assets, with approximately $300 billion of Moscow's assets currently frozen, mostly in Europe [4] - Trump expressed willingness to impose comprehensive new tariffs on India to encourage negotiations between Putin and Ukraine, contingent on European countries doing the same [4]

美联储官员本就预计下周降息，而近期数据显示就业市场长期疲软、通胀担忧缓解，这或许能让他们结束围绕滞胀风险长达数月的争 议。 今年夏季，官员们的论调已开始转变：7月，两位美联储理事因担忧就业市场风险，主张当时就降息，这是美联储内部首次出现反对声 音；随后，其他官员也开始淡化通胀问题，更关注经济放缓及就业流失风险。 随着美联储9月16日至17日会议临近，最新数据显示：8月失业率升至4.3%；经修正后，6月就业岗位实际流失。若6月初步统计时就能获 得这一数据，或许足以影响美联储7月30日的决策——当时美联储决定将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间（自去年12月以来一直处于该 区间）。 此外，本周发布的就业数据基准修正显示，截至今年3月的一年内，新增就业岗位数量比最初报告少了近100万个。 周四，8月消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅虽高于前一个月，但最新一周首次申领失业救济人数激增，这是就业市场降温的又一信号。 当前局面与去年夏季相似：当时就业增长放缓、前期数据下修，促使美联储在9月会议上降息50个基点。尽管市场分析师（包括路透社 近期调查中107位经济学家里的105位）预计下周仅降息25个基点，但最新数据可能会让 ...

Group 1 - Poland firmly rejected President Trump's claim that the drone incursion into its airspace could be a mistake, labeling it as a "deliberate Russian attack" [2] - Poland shot down a drone that violated its airspace with support from NATO allies, marking the first time a NATO member has fired during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3] - European leaders condemned the drone incursion and called for new sanctions against Russia, with the UN Security Council scheduled to discuss the incident [2][4] Group 2 - Poland's Defense Minister stated that the drone incursion was a deliberate Russian attack aimed at testing Poland and NATO's response capabilities [3] - The incident raised questions about NATO's preparedness for drone attacks and the safety of civil aviation in Europe [4] - France announced the deployment of three "Rafale" fighter jets to help protect Polish airspace, while Germany committed to strengthening its presence on NATO's eastern flank [5]

Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Predictions - UBS raises gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, up from $3,500, and expects it to reach $3,900 by mid-2026 [1] - Citigroup forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline to $60 per barrel in the next 6 to 12 months, citing a tug-of-war between weakening fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks [1] - MUFG notes that oil prices stabilized after geopolitical tensions pushed them up, with traders weighing weak demand against oversupply [3] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - S&P indicates that the ECB has likely ended its rate-cutting cycle, but persistent inflation is still pressuring consumer confidence [1] - Deutsche Bank suggests that low interest rates may persist until 2027, with core inflation forecasts being adjusted downwards [1] - Morgan Stanley delays its ECB rate cut expectation to December, acknowledging significant global growth risks [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - CICC highlights that U.S. inflation remains elevated, with August CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a risk of "stagflation" [6] - CITIC Securities maintains its forecast for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as inflation remains stable [7] Group 4: Electronics and AI Sector Growth - CITIC Construction Investment reports a recovery in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors, driven by AI capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% for the electronic sector in the first half of 2025 [8] - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism for the PCB and domestic computing sectors, anticipating a resurgence in the foldable screen market by 2026 [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - CITIC Construction Investment notes that while the overall performance of the real estate sector remains under pressure, some quality firms are stabilizing their profit margins [9] - The land market shows signs of recovery, with major firms increasing land acquisition by 31% year-on-year [10]

美国财政部长贝森特和日本财务大臣加藤胜信在一份联合声明中，重申了他们让市场决定货币汇率、不 以竞争优势为目的操纵汇率的基本承诺。 该声明明确指出，宏观审慎措施、资本流动措施以及包括养老基金在内的政府投资工具，也不应被用来 为竞争性目标而操纵汇率水平，这些细节显示了美国对（日本）政策的密切关注。 在财政部6月份发布的最新报告中，日本仍在其货币政策监控名单上。尽管在最新报告中，日本未越过 美国设定的货币干预门槛，但其经常账户盈余规模及其对美国的贸易顺差确实达到了密切监控的标准。 过去三年，东京已花费近1500亿美元试图支撑日元，最后一次行动是在去年7月。即使多次加息后，日 本的利率仍然远低于国际水平，这一因素拖累了日元。 声明详述了两位财长之间的会谈内容，称"他们再次确认了对G7承诺的认可，即财政和货币政策将继续 以使用国内工具实现各自国内目标为导向，不会为竞争性目的而将汇率作为目标。" 两位财长仍然根据先前的声明，为在某些情况下进行干预留下了空间，称干预应保留用于处理货币市场 的过度波动或无序波动。该新闻稿补充说，两位财长未来将继续讨论宏观经济和货币问题。 该声明发布于美国总统特朗普签署一项行政命令，使两国最近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is currently in a bearish trend, with expectations of further depreciation despite a recent stabilization after a record drop earlier this year [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - The dollar index fell approximately 11% over the six months ending in June, marking one of its largest historical declines [1]. - Speculators' net short positions on the dollar reached $5.7 billion, significantly down from $21 billion at the end of June but still at historically high levels [1][2]. - Many investors believe the recent sell-off of the dollar is merely a pause rather than a reversal of trend, driven by concerns over persistent fiscal and trade deficits, a weak job market, and reassessment of currency hedging strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Weak employment data provides the Federal Reserve with room for aggressive rate cuts, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [2]. - The ongoing reassessment of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and concerns over trade protectionism under the Trump administration contribute to the bearish outlook on the dollar [2][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Hedging Strategies - Global investors have high exposure to US assets, and any reduction in this exposure could exert downward pressure on the dollar [6]. - The recent underperformance of the dollar has prompted asset management companies to increase hedging operations, which typically involve selling dollars through forward contracts or swaps, thereby increasing dollar supply [6][7]. - The potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to enhance the appeal of currency hedging for foreign investors [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Valuation - Experts predict that the dollar is unlikely to receive support from the Trump administration, as its "America First" agenda conflicts with the goal of a strong dollar [7]. - Many analysts believe the dollar remains overvalued relative to several currencies, which may deter potential buyers in the forex market [8]. - Despite the dollar's significant decline this year, there is still a possibility for it to find support, particularly if the US economic outlook unexpectedly improves [8].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2029 from $2850/oz to $3300/oz, maintaining a positive outlook on gold prices with potential risks pushing prices to $4500-$5000/oz [1] - The revision by Goldman Sachs comes after a sustained increase in gold prices and gold stocks, with Newmont rated as neutral but showing positive prospects in production, free cash flow, and capital management [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that margin expansion is a key driver for the strong performance of mining stocks, expecting the current gold stock cycle to continue, outperforming commodities throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - UBS has also raised its gold price forecasts, increasing the 2025 year-end prediction by $300 to $3800/oz and the mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3900/oz, citing expected Fed easing policies and geopolitical risks affecting the dollar [4] - UBS revised its estimate for gold ETF holdings, predicting they will exceed 3900 tons by the end of 2025, close to the record of 3915 tons set in October 2020, maintaining a bullish view on gold [4] - UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong at around 900-950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record levels, while highlighting the key risk of unexpected Fed rate hikes due to inflation [4]