Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in zinc inventories, reaching a new eight-month low of 33,825 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a decrease in zinc inventories, with a weekly reduction of 5.27% to 103,416 tons as of October 31 [1] - Generally, declining inventories in both domestic and international exchanges are expected to support zinc prices, while increasing inventories would have a bearish effect [1] Inventory Comparison - As of November 3, 2025, LME zinc inventory stood at 33,825 tons, down from 35,300 tons on October 31, 2025 [4] - The SHFE inventory was reported at 103,416 tons on October 31, 2025, showing a significant decrease from previous weeks [4] - The trend indicates a consistent decline in LME zinc inventory from 39,800 tons on October 3 to the current level, while SHFE inventory has also shown fluctuations but remains significantly higher [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Toho Zinc plans to increase refined lead production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to 41,300 tons, a 10.5% increase from 37,369 tons in the same period last year [1] Production Plans - The production for the first half of the fiscal year is reported at 39,700 tons [1] - The second half of the fiscal year runs from October 2025 to March 2026 [1] Business Strategy - Toho Zinc has suspended major facilities at its Annaka smelting and refining plant in northern Tokyo by the end of March 2025, marking its exit from the zinc smelting business [1] - The announcement of the production plan was delayed this year to allow time for analysis of the reasons behind the production decline in the first half of the fiscal year and to consider countermeasures [1]

Group 1 - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1] - The increase in copper production in September is attributed to disruptions in mining operations that have affected output since the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown since October 1, leading to the suspension of CFTC reports, which are crucial for the metals market [1] Group 1 - The important report schedule for the metals market in November has been announced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing supply tightness and high prices suppressing downstream demand, leading to a reaccumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Morning trading saw copper prices weakly running, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, closing up by 0.1% [1] - Domestic market electrolytic copper inventory reached 206,000 tons on November 3, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to October 27, and up 13,800 tons from October 30 [1] - The overall performance of downstream enterprises remains relatively weak due to high copper prices, which have limited procurement demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about copper supply have intensified due to frequent mining accidents this year and declining ore grades in old mines [1] - Last week, Glencore and Anglo American reported a decline in copper sales for the first nine months, contributing to ongoing worries about supply tightness [1] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, according to the Chilean National Statistics Institute [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicated that the domestic market remains slightly oversupplied, with future attention needed on whether overseas inventories will be reduced [1] - The outlook for copper prices is influenced by less optimistic expectations from US-China negotiations and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a price retreat [1] - Despite these factors, the macroeconomic drivers have not changed, and the tight supply background is expected to maintain high price fluctuations in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in copper inventory, with the latest level at 134,625 tons, marking a three-month low [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a weekly increase in copper inventory by 10.83% to 116,140 tons, reaching a six-month high as of October 31 [1] - International copper inventory decreased by 1,422 tons to 15,059 tons [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventory reached 355,660 tons, the highest level since April 2003 [1][4] - The overall trend of declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges is generally supportive for copper prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian copper mining company, Amman Mineral Internasional, has received approval from the Ministry of Energy to export 480,000 tons of copper concentrate for a six-month period starting from October 31 [1] Group 1: Export Approval and Operations - The approval for export is crucial for Amman Mineral to avoid exceeding the capacity limits of its concentrate storage facilities [1] - The company has not yet submitted the necessary application for the export license to the Ministry of Trade [1] - The resumption of copper concentrate exports will help ensure ongoing mining operations [1] Group 2: Regulatory Context - Indonesia has imposed a ban on the export of copper concentrate and other raw minerals since mid-2023 to encourage domestic processing [1] - Amman Mineral is allowed to export concentrates until December 2024, provided it constructs a smelter to process the concentrates into cathode copper [1] Group 3: Smelter Operations - The company’s smelter faced temporary shutdowns in July and August due to damage to the flash smelting furnace and sulfuric acid plant [1] - Repairs to the smelter are expected to be completed by the first half of 2026, and the facility is currently operating at partial capacity [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline due to weak demand expectations, a strong dollar, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] - As of October 31, LME three-month copper fell by $29.5, or 0.27%, closing at $10,887.5 per ton, marking a drop for the second consecutive day after hitting $11,200 [1][2] - In October, copper prices have increased by $619, or 6.03%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [3] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0% in October, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1% [5] - ING's commodity strategist noted that the sentiment in the base metals market is poor, with supply disruptions expected to keep prices around $10,000 per ton, but strong demand growth is needed for further price increases [5] - Citigroup analysts remain optimistic about copper prices, predicting an increase by 2026 due to cyclical demand expectations and constrained mine supply [5] - A stronger dollar index has added pressure to the market, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies [5] - Marex warned that copper prices may further decline, suggesting caution as some indicators hint at potential price corrections [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sumitomo Corp's CEO, Shingo Ueno, stated that there are no plans to provide additional funding for the Ambatovy nickel project due to smooth operational progress [1] Group 1: Operational Insights - The political instability in Madagascar has not affected the operations of the Ambatovy nickel project [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company will actively seek investment opportunities in the United States [1]

Group 1 - Angola is seeking $4.5 billion in funding to construct a railway to Zambia's copper-rich region [1] - Italy has committed $320 million to the project, while the African Development Bank has pledged $500 million [1] - The Egyptian government has expressed interest in providing funding for the project this week [1] Group 2 - The new Zambian branch is part of a larger project called the Lobito Corridor, aimed at connecting the region to promote mineral and agricultural trade [1] - The project will link Zambia's copper mines to the existing Lobito line that extends from the Atlantic port city to Congo [1]