Group 1 - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile is facing a strike initiated by the union on January 2, following failed negotiations and government mediation [2] - The union accuses the company of illegally replacing workers during the 15-day strike period and demands compliance with labor department regulations [2] - There is a disagreement between the company and the union regarding the impact of the strike on mine operations [2] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, is facing three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is collaborating with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

期铜自周三创下13,407美元的纪录新高以来下跌5%。 | | 1月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 12,803.00 -303.00 -2.31% | | 三个月期铝 | 3.134.00 ↓ | -33.50 -1.06% | | 三个月期锌 | | 3.209.00 -105.50 -3.18% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,044.00 ↓ | -55.50 -2.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 17.578.00 - - 991.00 - 5.34% | | | 三个月期锡 | 47.982.00 J -4.049.00 J -7.78% | | 高价抑制铜需求 1月16日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜触及一周最低，市场在投机基金推动的一轮涨势后出 现获利了结，且实货买家的需求低迷。 伦敦时间1月16日17:00(北京时间1月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌303美元，或2.31%，收报每吨 12,803.0美元。此前触及12,696美元的1月9日以来最低。 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decline in base metals, with copper prices hitting a one-week low due to rising concerns over demand prospects [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's main copper contract for March closed down 2.26% at 100,770 yuan per ton, while LME three-month copper fell 1.44% to 12,917 USD per ton, previously reaching a low of 12,774.50 USD [1] - Factors supporting copper prices last year included mining disruptions, supply shortage concerns, and metal flows to the U.S. to counter potential tariffs [1] Group 2 - Other metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also experienced declines, with nickel down 3.99% to 141,350 yuan per ton, aluminum down 2.21% to 23,925 yuan, lead down 0.46% to 17,475 yuan, and zinc down 1.10% to 24,750 yuan [1] - The main tin contract for February on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.41% to 405,240 yuan per ton [2] - The LME three-month tin price dropped 4.21% to 49,840 USD per ton, with other metals like aluminum, nickel, lead, and zinc also experiencing declines [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that tin prices have recently experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6.41% to 405,240 yuan per ton, reversing the gains from the previous day. This decline is attributed to limited changes in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics despite a surge in investment enthusiasm driven by AI infrastructure and photovoltaic export expectations [1][2] - The recent increase in tin prices has led to a notable rise in LME tin warehouse receipts, with LME tin inventory climbing to approximately 5,900 tons, reflecting an increase of over 90% in the past month. This suggests a growing willingness to hold tin in warehouses as prices rise [1] - Domestic tin prices are at historical highs, which is increasingly suppressing downstream demand. Since January, terminal consumption has remained weak, and with the upcoming Spring Festival, the market is expected to enter a traditional off-season characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a potential seasonal accumulation of tin ingot social inventory in China [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in tin prices has prompted exchanges to raise the margin requirements, price fluctuation limits, and trading quotas to cool down the overheated market, resulting in a slight adjustment in night trading prices [2] - The upward momentum in precious metals, particularly silver, has also slowed down, which may influence short-term tin prices to enter a high-level oscillation pattern. Future attention will be focused on the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 2,450 tons, reaching a total of 143,575 tons, reflecting a growth of 1.74% [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, totaling 488,000 tons, which is a decline of 0.41% [1] - Zinc inventory saw a reduction of 175 tons, bringing it down to 106,525 tons, a change of -0.16% [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, now at 206,350 tons, marking a decline of 2.39% [1] - Tin inventory increased by 10 tons, resulting in a total of 5,935 tons, an increase of 0.17% [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory rose by 2,250 tons to 77,000 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 35.94% [4] - Rotterdam experienced a decrease in copper inventory by 125 tons, now at 10,650 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 8.22% [4] - Aluminum inventory in Port Klang decreased by 2,000 tons to 295,775 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 13.14% [5] - Singapore's aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 275 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 0.00% [5] - Zinc inventory in Kaohsiung decreased by 125 tons to 27,375 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 16.07% [9] Group 3: Registration and Cancellation of Warrants - The registered warrants for copper increased by 94,000 tons, while cancellations decreased by 1.05%, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 34.53% [2] - For aluminum, registered warrants remained unchanged at 446,575 tons, with cancellations decreasing by 4.61%, leading to a cancellation ratio of 8.49% [2] - Tin's registered warrants increased to 5,725 tons, with cancellations rising by 31.25%, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 3.54% [11]

Group 1 - Ivanhoe Mines has achieved its 2025 production targets for both the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the Kipushi zinc mine, indicating a steady recovery after a year of disruptions and significant increases in a key smelting plant's output [2] - The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine is recognized as one of the most important new copper resources globally, with a production of 388,838 tons of copper concentrate in 2025, aligning with the expected range of 380,000-420,000 tons [2][3] - The company has set its 2026 copper production guidance at 380,000–420,000 tons, with expectations for further increases due to improved access to high-grade ore and ongoing underground drainage work [3] Group 2 - A significant milestone for the company was the launch of Africa's largest copper smelting plant at the end of 2025, which currently produces an average of 500 tons of 99.7% pure anode copper daily [4] - The first batch of export products is expected to be shipped soon [5] - The anticipated copper sales volume for the Kamoa-Kakula mine in 2026 is projected to exceed production by 20,000 tons due to the consumption of unsold copper concentrate inventory [6] Group 3 - The Kipushi mine reported a record zinc concentrate production of 203,168 tons in 2025, meeting its guidance target [7] - The company has set its 2026 zinc production target between 240,000–290,000 tons, with December's production indicating an annualized output exceeding 270,000 tons [8]

Group 1 - The Panamanian government plans to make a decision regarding the future of First Quantum's Cobre Panama copper mine by June [2] - Cobre Panama is one of the largest open-pit copper mines globally and was closed in 2023 due to local residents' dissatisfaction with tax payments and environmental impacts [2] - Chile's newly elected president, Jose Antonio Kast, has offered technical assistance and support from three mining experts for the Cobre Panama project [2] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream sector, overcapacity in the midstream processing segment, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in addressing these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that LME copper prices have surged 23% since November, exceeding $13,000, driven primarily by speculative capital inflows rather than fundamental factors [2] - The recent price increase is not attributed to the strengthening dollar, expectations of Chinese economic growth, or supply tightness outside the U.S., despite rising inventories in the U.S. and abroad [2] - Goldman Sachs correctly predicted that copper tariffs would not be announced alongside the critical minerals order signed on January 14 under Section 232, which retains the possibility of future tariffs [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast that refined copper tariffs will be announced mid-year and implemented by January 2027, indicating a shift away from relying solely on tariffs for metal supply security [3] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Group 1 - Citi raised its 0-3 month aluminum price target to $3,400 per ton from a previous estimate of $2,950 per ton [1] - In the base case scenario (50% probability), the average aluminum price for Q1 2026 is projected to be $3,100 per ton, up from the previous estimate of $2,900 per ton; in a bullish scenario, it is expected to reach $3,500 per ton [1] - The 6-12 month price target is set at $3,300 per ton, aligning with a positive market environment, although the bank acknowledges potential for increased market volatility [1] Group 2 - Citi forecasts a slight structural supply surplus of 61,000 tons in 2026, which is expected to expand to 847,000 tons in 2027, remaining consistent with the base case scenario [1]

1月15日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜从纪录高位回落，因美元走强以及对美国可能对铜加 征关税的担忧有所缓解。 伦敦时间1月15日17:00(北京时间1月16日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌82.5美元，或0.63%，收报每吨 13,106.0美元。 LME现货铜较三个月期铜升水已从周二的每吨约90美元降至约28美元，表明对金属的迫切需求有所减 少。 | | 1月15日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | | 13,106.00 ↓ -82.50 ↓ -0.63% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,167.50 | -18.50 -0.58% | | 三个月期锌 | 3.314.50 1 | +38.50 ↑ +1.18% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,099.50 1 | +21.00 ↑ +1.01% | | 三个月期镇 | 18,569.00 -125.00 -0.67% | | | 三个月期锡 | 52,031.00 -1,431.00 ↓ -2.68% | | 特朗普暂缓关键矿产关税， ...