点击小程序查看报告原文 近年来，欧盟成员国财政体系正经历深刻变革。 自欧债危机后建立的严格财政纪律框架，在疫情冲击、能源危机及俄乌冲突的连续压力下被迫阶段性突 破，暴露了原有规则在公共投资、战略自主与危机响应上的结构性缺陷。2024年新版《稳定与增长公约》改革标志着欧盟财政治理的重要转向，但这一改 革未触及3%赤字率与60%债务率的核心红线，中期内超三分之一国家计划削减国内资助的公共投资，难以弥合欧洲长期存在的投资缺口。德国虽突破性 修改宪法"债务刹车"机制，设立万亿欧元特别基金支持国防与基建，但法国、意大利和西班牙等大国却深陷高债务与高宏观税负的困境，增量改革空间有 限，更多需要在财政重整、结构性改革等诸多方面寻求平衡与空间。 在成员国外，欧盟超国家主权层面的预算同步开启深度重构。 现行2021-2027年多年财政框架（MFF）叠加"下一代欧盟"（NGEU）计划形成超2万亿欧元 资金池，但难以匹配绿色转型、数字主权与安全防务的新优先级。2028-2034年新MFF提案试图突破瓶颈，如拓展自有资源收入渠道、设立欧洲竞争力基 金聚焦产业前沿、建立常态化4000亿欧元危机贷款机制等，但这一雄心受制于成员国分歧，未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is expected to enter a mass production phase in 2025, with a shift in market focus from high barrier, high elasticity tracks to those that can contribute elasticity after scaling up, leading to increased attention on lightweight segments [2]. Group 1: Lightweight Trends in Humanoid Robots - Lightweight design is becoming a trend in humanoid robots, with companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics emphasizing material and structural optimizations to enhance performance and safety [5][10]. - The benefits of lightweight humanoid robots include improved endurance, reduced motion inertia, optimized performance, and enhanced safety [10]. Group 2: Material Optimization - Material optimization involves the use of aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys, and PEEK materials, each offering unique advantages for different components of humanoid robots [3][11]. - Aluminum alloys are expected to be used in robot shells and structural components due to their excellent performance and cost-effectiveness [3]. - Magnesium alloys are gaining traction due to improved supply and processing techniques, making them suitable for various parts of humanoid robots [3][13]. - PEEK materials are recognized for their lightweight and high strength, with potential applications in joints and protective casings [3][26]. Group 3: Structural and Process Optimization - Structural optimization focuses on achieving lightweight designs at lower costs, with topology optimization being a promising approach [3]. - Process optimization includes methods like Metal Injection Molding (MIM) and 3D printing, which are being adopted by leading companies for efficient production of lightweight components [3][10]. Group 4: Market Potential for Magnesium Alloys - The expansion of Baowu Magnesium Industry is expected to lower magnesium prices, making magnesium alloys more competitive against aluminum alloys [14]. - The global magnesium alloy market is projected to grow significantly, with automotive and 3C electronics being the primary application areas [19][20]. Group 5: PEEK Material Overview - PEEK is a high-performance thermoplastic known for its excellent mechanical properties, chemical resistance, and lightweight characteristics, making it suitable for various high-end applications [24][26]. - The global market for PEEK is expanding, with significant growth expected in automotive, aerospace, and electronics sectors [41][43]. Group 6: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The PEEK production landscape is characterized by a few dominant players, with a trend towards domestic substitution as local manufacturers increase capacity and reduce prices [35][36]. - The complexity of PEEK production processes and high entry barriers contribute to a concentrated market structure, with significant investment required for new entrants [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - Event-driven research is a significant quantitative strategy that focuses on analyzing and utilizing specific events' impacts on asset prices, particularly stock prices, to identify investment opportunities and risks [2][10]. Group 1: Pricing Efficiency in A-Share Market - The A-share market shows high pricing efficiency for events like high growth performance and earnings pre-announcement, with an average excess return of about 1% on the announcement day. However, the continuation of excess returns post-announcement is weak unless earnings exceed market expectations by 20%, leading to an average cumulative excess return of 1.8% over the next 10 trading days for such cases [2][26]. Group 2: Stock Buybacks and Dividends - High dividend announcements lead to significant excess returns, averaging 2.1% over the following 20 days, with a win rate of 58.9%. In contrast, stock buyback events show varied responses based on the purpose of the buyback, with certain types yielding long-term excess returns of up to 6.5% over 60 trading days, especially for stocks with lower research coverage [3][4]. Group 3: Signals from Re-financing - Different forms of re-financing, such as private placements and convertible bonds, generally have a negative impact on stock prices post-announcement. However, private placements that do not include institutional investors can yield some excess returns, albeit with lower win rates [4][6]. Group 4: Impact of Equity Incentives - Announcements of equity incentives and employee stock ownership plans generally have a positive impact on stock prices, with significant excess returns observed over 20 and 60 trading days. The effectiveness of these events is influenced by the scope and intensity of the incentives [4][5]. Group 5: Changes in Sell-Side Views - Significant changes in sell-side views, particularly when accompanied by upward revisions in earnings forecasts and titles indicating "better than expected," are noteworthy. These events yield average cumulative excess returns of 3.8% over 5 days and 6.6% over 60 days [5][6]. Group 6: Institutional Research Behavior - Attention should be given to institutional research events occurring a year after previous coverage, as these often indicate potential undervalued opportunities. The average cumulative excess returns for such events can reach 6.1% over 120 days [6][7]. Group 7: Major Shareholder Actions - Major shareholder buyback announcements are particularly noteworthy when preceding stock performance has been poor. In cases where the prior 20-day excess return is negative, subsequent buyback announcements can lead to average excess returns of 6.5% over 120 days [6][7]. Group 8: Index Adjustments and Passive Fund Flows - Stocks included in indices experience significant positive impacts from passive fund flows, with average cumulative excess returns of 5-6% around the announcement date. Predicting index adjustments can help investors capture these excess returns [6][8]. Group 9: Opportunities in Large-Cap Stocks - For large-cap stocks (over 50 billion), key events to monitor include earnings announcements exceeding consensus expectations by 20%, which can yield average excess returns of 3.9% over 60 days [7][8]. Group 10: Negative Signals to Watch - Certain events, such as large-scale financing, lock-up expirations, and significant shareholder sell-offs, indicate heightened downside risks. These events often lead to negative excess returns over extended periods [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Despite low nominal economic growth and subdued prices in the second quarter, A-shares have experienced a rapid rise, driven primarily by liquidity rather than fundamental economic improvements. This phenomenon is likened to a "water buffalo" market, where stock prices increase without corresponding improvements in economic indicators [2][6][7]. Group 1: Financial Cycle Perspective - The analysis suggests that understanding the recent stock market trends requires a shift from traditional economic cycle perspectives to financial cycle perspectives, as China has undergone significant financial cycle adjustments in recent years [7][6]. - Historical experiences from the U.S. during the financial cycle downturn, particularly post-2007 subprime crisis, show that stock markets can rise even when economic fundamentals are weak, driven by changes in private sector balance sheets and government policies [3][20][29]. - In contrast, Japan's financial cycle adjustments in the 1990s were less effective due to delayed policy responses and persistent debt issues, leading to weaker stock market performance compared to the U.S. [30][31]. Group 2: Current Chinese Market Dynamics - Since the fourth quarter of the previous year, market confidence in China's medium to long-term economic outlook has improved, particularly with the emergence of DeepSeek, despite ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [4][10]. - The share of real estate in China's economy has significantly decreased, reducing its negative impact on overall economic performance, while policymakers have shown increased attention to economic and market conditions [4][52]. - The macro leverage ratio of the Chinese government has increased from 71% in 2022 to 88% in 2024, indicating a more restrained approach compared to the U.S. during its financial crisis [44][59]. Group 3: Risk Appetite and Market Behavior - The recent rise in A-shares is attributed to a decrease in equity risk premiums, with market participants showing a willingness to shift from safe assets to risk assets, particularly equities, as the perceived risks of economic downturns diminish [9][10][57]. - The correlation between government policy responses and market liquidity is highlighted, suggesting that increased fiscal and monetary policy efforts can enhance market sentiment and support stock market growth [29][59]. - The current financing and margin trading levels in A-shares are approaching historical highs, indicating potential for further market expansion if policy measures to address debt and improve balance sheets are intensified [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the low equity risk premium in the US stock market, exploring the underlying factors that contribute to this phenomenon and its implications for future market performance [6][34]. Group 1: Macro Factors Influencing US Stock Market - The US stock market has been buoyed by three macro pillars: AI technology, fiscal expansion, and global capital rebalancing, which have created a positive feedback loop [2]. - Despite challenges in early 2023, including tech layoffs and fiscal tightening, the US stock market has quickly recovered and reached new highs [2][4]. - The performance of the US stock market and the dollar suggests a potential slight strengthening of the dollar, contrary to the prevailing narrative of "de-dollarization" [4]. Group 2: Understanding Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) measures the additional return investors require for taking on the risk of investing in stocks compared to risk-free assets [7][8]. - Currently, the ERP for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is significantly lower than that of other major global markets, with the S&P at 0.36% and Nasdaq at -0.6%, while European and Japanese markets show premiums of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively [8][10]. - The decline in the ERP began after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022, which raised the 10-year Treasury yield from 2.1% to nearly 5.0% [10]. Group 3: Reevaluating Risk Premium Calculations - The article questions whether the traditional method of calculating ERP using nominal interest rates is appropriate, given the recent economic changes [12][13]. - It highlights that the divergence between nominal and real interest rates, particularly post-pandemic, may distort the perceived risk premium [15]. - The relative interest rate, which considers the difference between actual and natural rates, may provide a more accurate reflection of opportunity costs and valuation [17][21]. Group 4: Structural Differentiation in the US Stock Market - The low ERP is also attributed to significant structural differences within the market, driven primarily by AI trends and leading tech stocks [34]. - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have surged 174% since late 2022, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500, which rose 62% [34][36]. - The top 20 performing stocks have a current ERP of -0.8%, while the remaining 480 stocks have an ERP of 1.2%, indicating a stark contrast in risk premiums [36][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Risk Premium - The article suggests that the ERP may have room for slight decline, with potential S&P 500 levels projected between 6200 and 6400 based on current economic conditions [43][50]. - It also discusses the possibility of a market correction due to external factors, which could provide better buying opportunities [50].

Core Viewpoint - The service chain sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies that possess strong internal capabilities and innovative business models outperforming in stock performance, despite a challenging consumption environment [2][5][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 1H25, the service sector saw a stable overall stock performance, with notable differentiation among sub-sectors. Companies in the ready-to-drink tea and restaurant segments that achieved same-store growth and robust expansion outperformed others [5][39]. - The leisure tourism demand has entered a normalized growth phase, but most tourism companies showed limited short-term performance increases, resulting in overall flat stock performance [5][39]. - The hotel industry continues to face cyclical pressures, with only a few companies like Atour showing strong stock performance due to rapid network expansion and retail growth [5][39]. - The duty-free sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with sales declines narrowing, but still not indicating a return to growth [5][39]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus remains on strong internal capabilities and high-growth niche leaders in the restaurant and beverage sectors, as they are expected to benefit from industry growth and market share gains [3][39]. - The service consumption sector is resilient and offers growth potential, supported by improved infrastructure and increasing consumer demand [17][20]. - The emergence of scalable chain brands indicates significant room for growth compared to mature markets, with only a fraction of Chinese service brands reaching valuations above $10 billion [18][20]. Group 3: Company Dynamics - Companies that excel in product, operational, brand, and organizational capabilities are more likely to succeed, especially in navigating the challenges of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [22][28]. - Innovations in product offerings, store formats, and business models are crucial for driving growth, with examples including Luckin Coffee's online operations and the expansion strategies of various hotel brands [33][35]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with head-to-head comparisons of leading ready-to-drink tea and coffee brands revealing differences in pricing strategies and market positioning [36][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to present growth opportunities for comprehensive leaders and high-growth niche players, particularly as service consumption continues to evolve [2][39]. - The restaurant and hotel sectors are anticipated to experience varying degrees of recovery, with a focus on the performance of leading brands and their ability to adapt to market changes [44][46]. - The tourism sector is projected to see steady growth in travel volumes, although pricing pressures may persist [48][49].

尽责管理与行业ESG分析框架的整合： 基于投资者寻求自身与企业利益的一致性，我们提出了以"财务重要性"为纽带对尽责管理与行业ESG框架进行整合 的方法论，并根据申万行业标准的一级行业分类提出了30个行业对应参与治理活动中可重点关注的环境与社会议题。 Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年5月7日证监会印发关于《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的通知，其中第二十条要求"强化对基金长期投资行为的引导"，包括"出台公募基金 参与上市公司治理规则，助力提升上市公司质量"[1]。同月9日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人参与上市公司治理管理规 则》（以下简称《参与治理规则》）的公告[2]。 我国公募基金参与上市公司治理规则出台，完善企业治理体系 影响：（1）从公募基金管理人以及上市公司的角度，《参与治理规则》的实施或将推动流通股本结构较为集中的上市公司股东大会投票表决相关信息的 透明化。对于非强制披露投票表决情况的公募持仓，我们认为在《参与治理规则》的催化下，对应尽责管理活动亦或将增强。（2）参与治理实践对推动 长期资金发展、构建中国特色现代企业制度、双碳战略等多个国内政策热点 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the good performance of major economic indicators and the need to maintain policy continuity and stability [4] - Fiscal policy in the third quarter may focus on leveraging existing policies, with a possibility of increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4] - Monetary policy may prioritize reform measures and structural monetary policy tools rather than lowering policy interest rates [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to boost demand in various sectors, including basic chemicals, construction materials, and machinery [7] - The project is anticipated to enhance energy efficiency and improve fiscal revenue and employment in Tibet, potentially stimulating infrastructure investment and GDP growth [7] - Companies directly related to the project may experience short-term catalysts, but long-term focus should be on project progress and its economic impact [7] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has been active in 2025, outperforming major global markets, particularly the A-share market [9] - Hong Kong has become the largest IPO financing market globally in 2025, with significant inflows of southbound capital and many companies, including A-share firms, listing there [9] - Notable post-IPO performance has been observed, with some stocks trading significantly higher in Hong Kong compared to their A-share counterparts, igniting investor interest in IPO investments [9] Group 4: Vietnam Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the highest growth rate for a second quarter in 2023, and 7.5% for the first half of 2025 [11] - The industrial and service sectors showed accelerated growth, with industrial GDP increasing by 8.3% and service GDP by 8.1% [11] - The Vietnamese government has raised its GDP growth target for 2025 from 8.0% to a range of 8.3% to 8.5%, reflecting the country's economic resilience [11] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while some officials expressed concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [15] - The Fed's commitment to independence suggests that interest rate cuts may be delayed, especially if tariff pressures continue [15] - The decision-making process involves a committee, indicating that changes in leadership would not necessarily alter the monetary policy direction [15]

Group 1 - The article serves as a platform for sharing partial views from CICC's published research reports, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complete reports for accurate interpretation [2][3] - It highlights that the information and opinions provided do not constitute specific investment advice or recommendations for trading securities or financial instruments [2][3] - The content is directed towards CICC's clients in mainland China, and it is advised that subscribers assess the appropriateness of receiving the content before subscribing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US economy shows resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, but underlying weaknesses in domestic demand are evident, with private sector final sales growth slowing to 1.2%, the lowest in two years [1][3][6] Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP for Q2 2025 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3.0%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in imports and inventory [2][6] - The contribution of private consumption to GDP remains strong, but fixed asset investments, particularly in real estate and construction, have seen consecutive quarters of negative growth [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth dropped sharply from 7.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, contributing only 0.08 percentage points to GDP [3] - High interest rates have notably suppressed construction and residential investments, while equipment investment growth has also slowed [3][6] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but remains weaker compared to 2024, with contributions to GDP fluctuating [3][6] - Durable goods consumption showed recovery, while non-durable goods consumption significantly declined [3] Government Spending - Government spending increased by 0.4% in Q2, contributing minimally to GDP growth, primarily driven by a rise in defense spending [4][6] Future Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to face constraints in the second half of the year due to tight monetary policy and potential increases in tariffs, which could further suppress growth and raise inflation [4][6] - The "Great Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump may provide some support to economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 0.5% by 2026 [5][6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is anticipated to rise structurally in the second half of 2025, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][6] - The potential for increased tariffs poses additional risks to both consumer purchasing power and corporate profits, which may further inhibit investment and spending [4][6]