Core Viewpoint - The konjac industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market for konjac snacks projected to reach 172-192 billion yuan by 2024, driven by its low-calorie, versatile, and appealing characteristics [4][13][32]. Group 1: Konjac Industry Chain - Konjac, also known as konnyaku, is primarily composed of glucomannan, a high-quality soluble dietary fiber that expands significantly when hydrated, providing a jelly-like texture [8][9]. - The main downstream applications of konjac include konjac gel foods, food additives, healthcare products, and industrial materials, with the largest market still being food [12][11]. - The estimated market sizes for konjac snacks in 2024 are 80-100 billion yuan for konjac ready-to-eat products, 47 billion yuan for konjac jelly, and 45 billion yuan for instant konjac noodles [13][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cultivation of konjac is challenging, requiring specific environmental conditions and crop rotation, leading to a decline in planting area in recent years [14][16]. - The demand for konjac is recovering in 2024, but adverse weather conditions have resulted in a significant decrease in planting area and yield, causing prices to rise [16][18]. - The supply of konjac is expected to remain constrained in the short term, with high prices likely to persist until 2026 [18]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Snacks - The konjac snack market is positioned for rapid growth, with potential to surpass the market for spicy strips, which is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of only 3.6% over the next five years [25][26]. - Konjac snacks offer a wider variety of flavors and forms compared to spicy strips, appealing to a broader consumer base, including health-conscious individuals [26][22]. - The konjac jelly market is also expected to grow significantly, with projections of reaching 182 billion yuan by 2029, driven by its health benefits and popularity among younger consumers [30][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consumption of konjac in China is expected to continue rising, with the potential to exceed current consumption levels in Japan, where konjac has been a staple for centuries [20][21]. - The innovation in flavor and health trends is likely to drive the expansion of konjac products beyond traditional uses, establishing it as a symbol of new Chinese snacks and healthy lifestyles [32][32].

Group 1 - The concept of geoeconomics has evolved from an academic idea to a significant topic in global economic and policy discussions, highlighting the shift from cooperation to competition in the international economic order [6] - Geoeconomic competition emphasizes the importance of economies of scale in international trade and global supply chains, with technology becoming a core area of competition among nations [6] - The zero-sum nature of geoeconomic competition suggests that one party's gain often comes at the expense of another, increasing the significance of absolute economic size [6] Group 2 - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in early April, concerns regarding U.S. inflation, stock market prospects, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have persisted, yet the U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs [8] - The mainstream view has misjudged the impact of tariffs on U.S. stocks and inflation by focusing too much on the end effects of tariffs rather than the transmission process and the allocation of tariff revenues [8] Group 3 - The upward trend since September 2024 continues, with the U.S. Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle and increasing downward pressure on U.S. demand [10] - The current turnover rate of over 5% indicates potential short-term volatility, but historical trends suggest that such periods do not typically alter mid-term market performance [10] Group 4 - Rapid increases in trading volume often indicate a quick rise in investor risk appetite, leading to short-term adjustments without changing the mid-term trend [12] - Historical data shows that after adjustment periods, indices tend to exhibit a pattern of oscillating upward, surpassing previous highs [12] Group 5 - In the first half of 2025, A-share companies reported a 2.8% year-on-year increase in profits, with the non-financial sector seeing a slight 1.5% growth [14] - Key sectors such as TMT, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream areas performed well, contributing positively to index performance [14] - Financial metrics indicate stable performance, with improvements in cash flow and capital expenditure, while the overall profitability still requires enhancement [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "quasi-stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][2] - Recent data indicates that the US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with tariffs on imports from India raised to 50% and tariff revenues expected to exceed $300 billion this year, potentially contributing around $4 trillion in the future [4][6][10] - The tightening of immigration policies is leading to a decline in labor supply, which is expected to pressure economic expansion and reduce consumer demand, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth decline of 0.81 percentage points by 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data show characteristics of "quasi-stagflation," including a divergence between consumer confidence and inflation expectations, with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise [12][13] - Manufacturing costs are increasing while investment willingness remains low, indicating a combination of rising costs and subdued investment, which aligns with "quasi-stagflation" characteristics [18][20] - Bond market signals indicate rising implied inflation expectations alongside declining real interest rates, suggesting that investors are anticipating lower real returns while seeking higher inflation compensation [22][24] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process, leading to a more gradual and less significant reduction than the market anticipates [25][26] - Historical examples of "stagflation" highlight that it is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from a combination of policy, structural, and market expectations, with current US challenges including high fiscal deficits, elevated tariffs, and tightening immigration policies [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of public REITs, highlighting the need for patience in improvement, with various sectors showing distinct performance trends [2][3][4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamentals of the REIT sector remain divided, with resilient performance in consumer and rental housing sectors, while industrial parks and logistics face short-term pressures [7][8][10]. - The consumer REITs benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, showing improved foot traffic and sales [10]. - The rental housing sector maintains stability, with some market-oriented projects exploring diversified income streams [9][10]. - Industrial parks are under significant operational challenges due to increased supply and weakened leasing demand, with no immediate signs of improvement [7][8]. - Logistics REITs show manageable operational pressures, with regional performance varying significantly [8][9]. - Municipal environmental projects exhibit relative stability, but competition and cash flow recovery need monitoring [12]. - Energy projects, particularly hydropower and offshore wind, performed better than peers, but the impact of new energy market transactions remains to be seen [13]. Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a phase of fluctuation, with several concerns including the "stock-bond seesaw," valuation, fundamentals, and lock-up expirations [14][15]. - The current market valuation of public REITs is high, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.28, indicating a need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities [15][16]. - The article suggests that potential catalysts for market recovery include declining long-term interest rates, improved macroeconomic expectations, and favorable policy changes [17]. Distribution Performance - The distribution performance across sectors is increasingly divergent, with most projects experiencing a year-on-year decline in available distribution amounts [19][20]. - Consumer REITs showed an average year-on-year increase of 4.0% in available distribution amounts, while industrial parks and logistics faced declines of 9.5% and 4.3%, respectively [19]. - The article breaks down the adjustments from EBITDA to available distributions into five key components, highlighting the importance of cash adjustments and the sustainability of certain adjustments [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, indicating a potential short-term adjustment after a rapid increase in trading volume and market performance [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On September 4, the A-share market showed weak performance, with major indices declining; the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 1.25% and 2.12% respectively, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 dropped by 4.25% and 6.08% [2]. - The trading volume on September 4 was 2.58 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with nearly 3,000 listed companies experiencing declines [2]. Trading Signals - A turnover rate exceeding 5% is highlighted as a significant trading signal, indicating increased investor risk appetite and potential short-term volatility [3]. - Historical data suggests that when the turnover rate rises above 5%, the market often experiences subsequent adjustments, as seen in previous years [3]. Mid-term Trends - Despite short-term adjustments, the mid-term upward trend since September 2022 is expected to continue, with the market's overall valuation remaining reasonable and not overvalued [4]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is below 14 times, placing it in the 63rd percentile of the past 20 years, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to major global markets [4]. Earnings Growth - A-share earnings are projected to achieve positive growth this year, with a forecasted increase of 3.5% for 2025, driven by a favorable base effect and cost factors in the second half of the year [5]. - The recent policy emphasis on stabilizing the capital market is expected to bolster investor confidence, with ongoing attention to U.S. interest rate changes and domestic policy developments [5]. Investment Strategy - The focus is on the expansion and rotation of growth styles, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy, while dividend-paying stocks are expected to show structural opportunities [6]. - The market is anticipated to continue exhibiting characteristics of style rotation, with strong sectors alternating, which may persist throughout the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are expected to become the next generation of lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density, with significant investment opportunities arising from technological breakthroughs and industrial transformation [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Projections - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating due to policy support, market demand, and technological breakthroughs, with a projected global shipment of 808 GWh by 2030 [4][10]. - By 2030, the demand for semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 650 GWh, with specific demands from power, energy storage, EVTOL, and consumer electronics at 466 GWh, 90 GWh, 60 GWh, and 36 GWh respectively [10]. - Full solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve small-scale production by 2027 and commercial production by 2030, with a demand forecast of over 150 GWh [10]. Group 2: Material Innovations - The solid-state battery technology is converging towards the sulfide electrolyte route, which currently has high costs but significant cost reduction potential with scale [5][12]. - The long-term focus for anode materials is shifting towards lithium metal due to its high capacity and low electrode potential, with ongoing advancements in production methods [25][27]. - The cathode materials are expected to transition from high-nickel ternary materials to lithium-rich manganese-based materials, which offer high capacity and lower costs [23]. Group 3: Equipment and Manufacturing Processes - The value of equipment for solid-state batteries is significantly increasing due to the introduction of new processes and equipment in both the front and mid-stages of production [6][29]. - The front-end production requires dry electrode processes that are more compatible with sulfide electrolytes, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [30][32]. - The mid-stage production will replace winding with stacking processes, necessitating new equipment such as glue frame printing and isostatic pressing to ensure tight contact between solid electrolyte and electrodes [31][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Various companies are advancing their production capabilities for solid-state battery components, including sulfide and halide electrolytes, with significant investments in R&D and production lines [22][20]. - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are focusing on lithium metal anodes, while others are developing advanced manufacturing techniques for solid-state batteries [27][26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective production methods, with several firms already implementing dry processing technologies [36][41].

点击小程序查看报告原文 近年来，地缘经济学逐渐从一个学术概念演变为全球经济和政策讨论的热门话题。国际经济秩序从全球化时代以合作为基调转向竞争，与传统的地缘政治 博弈不同，新一轮地缘竞争更多依赖经济手段实现经济和非经济目标。中金研究院与中金公司研究部联合撰写这篇主题报告，围绕地缘经济竞争的内涵、 形式、载体和影响展开分析，并探讨可能的应对政策。本文就地缘经济竞争在宏观层面的体现和含义提出一些思考。 一、从地缘视角看宏观经济政策理念的转变 传统上学术界和政策界强调经济政策和举措聚焦于实现两大经济目标，效率与公平。地缘竞争使得非经济目标也被纳入考量，包括国家安全和地缘影响 力。就地缘经济对宏观政策理念和框架的影响而言，有三个方面值得探讨。 第一、地缘竞争突显规模经济在国际贸易和全球产业链的重要性。传统的贸易理论强调基于资源禀赋差异形成的比较优势，比如发展中国家专注于劳动密 集型产业，发达国家聚焦资本、技术密集型领域。在现实中，规模经济效应驱动产业内分工，能更好解释美国、欧洲和日本等发达国家之间的贸易，以及 中国作为贸易大国的崛起。1980年代初，经济学家克鲁格曼提出以规模经济和不完全竞争为基础的新贸易理论，其政策含 ...

Core Viewpoint - The C-REITs market experienced fluctuations in August, with a total market capitalization of 218.8 billion yuan and a decline in the China Securities REITs Total Return Index by 2.61% [2][3][7]. Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index showed a downward trend in early August, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at 1073.33 [3]. - The average daily turnover in August was 696 million yuan, reflecting a 15% increase month-on-month, with an average turnover rate of 0.70% [3][15]. Sector Analysis - The data center sector saw a significant increase of 36.55%, while the rental housing sector led the decline with a drop of 5.45% due to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The valuation pressure across various sectors has eased, with the spreads between different sectors and the 10-year government bond yields showing mixed trends [4]. Investment Opportunities - There are potential investment opportunities in high-quality projects that have seen price corrections, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals such as rental housing and municipal environmental protection [5]. - The market is advised to focus on projects with stable tenant structures and those that have shown marginal stability in fundamentals [5]. Risk Appetite and Market Sentiment - The market's risk appetite appears to be contracting, as indicated by the fluctuations in major asset classes and the performance of the C-REITs index [4]. - The performance of the C-REITs market is closely linked to the broader capital market sentiment, which may influence future stability and recovery [4].

Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.4% and up from 2.3% in Q2 2024, although it slowed from 3.2% in Q1 2025 [2][8] - The National Economic and Social Development Council adjusted the full-year growth forecast to 1.8-2.3%, up from the previous range of 1.3-2.3%, maintaining cautious optimism amid global uncertainties [2][8] - Key growth drivers include strong export performance, with Q2 exports up 12.2% year-on-year, and a rebound in private investment, which grew by 4.1% [8][10] Policy Response - Thailand faces multiple pressures including political friction, border conflicts, trade risks, and natural disasters, which pose challenges to growth [3][21] - The Constitutional Court's ruling on former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's actions may delay key initiatives like the digital wallet plan [21][22] - Strong foreign direct investment (FDI) activity, with a record 1,063 approved projects worth $18.7 billion in H1 2025, signals positive investment sentiment [22][23] Trade Dynamics - Thailand's exports grew by 14.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, continuing a five-quarter growth streak, driven by strong demand for electronics [4][30] - The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Thai goods, which may pressure export-oriented businesses in the second half of 2025 [4][30] - Thailand is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships, achieving key milestones such as gaining BRICS partner status and enhancing ties with the European Free Trade Association [4][31][32] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector showed signs of weakness, with foreign visitor numbers down 12.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to safety concerns and regional competition [5][38] - The Thai government announced a stimulus package of 10 billion baht (approximately $300 million) to promote tourism and improve attractions [5][39] - Long-haul tourists are expected to increase, potentially driving tourism revenue to $46.4 billion in 2025, up from $39.7 billion in 2024 [5][39] Capital Markets - The SET index rose by 3% in the past month, reflecting improved market sentiment, although it remains down 6.9% year-to-date [6][49] - The forward P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.0x and 13.1x, respectively, indicating a valuation below historical averages [6][49] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend financial stocks, electronic and electric vehicle manufacturing, fintech innovation, and energy transition [6][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging market for Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology, highlighting its advantages over traditional electronic switches and the potential for significant market growth, particularly in data centers and AI clusters [2][4][30]. Summary by Sections OCS Technology Overview - OCS enables direct switching of optical signals between fiber ports without the need for optical-electrical-optical conversion, resulting in lower latency, reduced power consumption, and improved compatibility [2][10]. - The technology faces limitations such as longer switching times and lower channel flexibility, making it less suitable for high-concurrency communication loads [10][11]. Industry Adoption and Market Potential - Google has been a pioneer in adopting OCS technology, integrating it into its Jupiter data center network and AI clusters, which has led to significant improvements in network efficiency and cost reduction [3][19][22]. - Cignal AI projects that the OCS market could exceed $1.6 billion by 2029, with Coherent identifying a $2 billion potential market opportunity for OCS switches [4][30]. Key Players and Technological Developments - Major companies involved in OCS technology include Google, Lumentum, and Coherent, with various technological approaches such as MEMS, digital liquid crystal, and piezoelectric systems being explored [11][13][15]. - The OCS industry is moving towards open standards and collaboration, as evidenced by the establishment of the OCS sub-project under the Open Compute Project (OCP) [29]. Initial Revenue and Future Growth - Companies like Lumentum and Coherent have reported initial revenues from OCS, with expectations for continued growth as demand increases from large-scale cloud providers [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the OCS industry's trends and the potential for significant contributions to the supply chain as OCS technology becomes more widely adopted in data centers [32].