Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the increased risks of higher unemployment and inflation, reflecting a dual mandate concern [2] - Despite these risks, economic data remains robust, with low unemployment and ongoing consumer spending and business investment, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] - The Fed is unlikely to initiate rate cuts in the short term, especially not preemptively, as current conditions do not warrant immediate action [3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Two potential scenarios for future rate cuts are outlined: 1. If trade negotiations fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If trade negotiations yield positive results, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process, with the current macroeconomic environment being less favorable for capital markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of predicting the adjustment lists of A-share indices in advance, which can provide substantial benefits for various investors, including arbitrage and cross-border investors [1][2]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Predictions - A-share indices undergo regular adjustments in June and December each year, allowing for predictions based on trading and financial data from the previous year [1][5]. - The report predicts the adjustment lists for several indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, and others, for June 2025 based on component stock selection rules [1][5]. Group 2: Impact of Passive Fund Growth - The rapid increase in passive fund sizes since 2023 has enhanced the significance of index adjustment effects, particularly for indices like CSI 300 and STAR 50 [2][8]. - The average excess returns for newly included stocks in various indices have improved post-announcement, with CSI 300 and SSE 50 showing increases to 4.64% and 6.77% respectively in the 10 days following the announcement [2][12]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Adjustment Effects - The decline in the significance of index adjustment effects in overseas indices post-2010 is attributed to factors such as sample size, index migration, and liquidity [3][51]. - In A-shares, index migration and pre-announcement trading behaviors negatively impact the inclusion effects, while high impact coefficients positively influence them [3][51]. Group 4: Future Excess Return Potential - The current trends indicate that the future A-share market may still have excess return potential from index adjustment events, as key indicators like circulation market value and impact coefficients show no downward trend [4][51]. - High impact coefficient strategies have demonstrated strong performance, achieving annualized returns of around 10% from 2019 to 2024 [4][56]. Group 5: Strategy Development - The strategy of predicting index inclusion samples in advance has shown significant enhancement in returns, with annualized returns increasing from 2.5% to 5.7% when holding positions before announcements [52][56]. - A strategy focusing on high impact coefficient stocks has yielded an annualized return of 8.1% since 2010, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.2% during the same period [56].

中金研究 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况[1]，央行、证监会、金融监管总局发布一揽子增量政策，及时 出手，有力稳定市场信心。向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观 及时出手，稳定信心 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表：螺纹钢表观消费量 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 本次金融政策调整有利于稳定信心。 在面对关税影响时，无论是企业还是市场，面临的最大问题都是不确定性。一方面，中国经济有长期增长空间，规 模大、韧性足，中国的A股市场的估值也并不贵；但另一方面，关税影响可能带来经济增长的下行压力，对短期的企业经营和市场投资都带来较大扰动。 经济出现走弱苗头，金融政策方面推出一揽子宽松政策，包括调整政策利率（调整政策利率在市场看来面临各类约束），及时出手有利于稳定市场信心。 从具体政策措施来看，降准释放流动性，缓解资金压力， 大体在市场预期范围之内。今年以来社融增速不断上升，存量社融增速从去年年底的8.0%上升 到8.4%，政府债发行节奏较快、贷款投放也超市场预期，这就导致资金面相对紧张。央行宣布，自2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on the global market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market and its recovery trends following the initial shock [1][3]. Market Performance Summary - Following the announcement of tariffs on April 2, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop on April 7 that erased all gains for the year. However, by May 2, the Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded by 19.1%, while MSCI China, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw rebounds of 13.6%, 13.5%, and 13.3% respectively. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 had smaller rebounds of 5.9% and 5.0% [1]. - Sector performance from April 8 to May 2 showed that Information Technology (+29.0%), Healthcare (+19.2%), and Consumer Discretionary (+14.3%) led the gains, while sectors like Banking (+4.9%), Utilities (+5.6%), and Energy (+5.9%) lagged behind [1]. Industry Analysis Framework - The article proposes an industry analysis framework based on demand sources, categorizing industries into three main types: 1. Industries primarily dependent on the U.S. market, which face significant challenges in finding alternative demand. 2. Industries with demand from markets outside the U.S., which are less directly affected by U.S. tariffs. 3. Industries with domestic demand, which are influenced by domestic policy support [4][6]. Impact of Tariffs on Different Industries - Industries with primary demand from the U.S. are categorized based on their ability to find alternative markets and their bargaining power. Sectors like Media, Software Services, and Textiles have shown resilience due to higher profit margins and U.S. import dependency, while smaller firms in shipping and medical supplies face greater challenges [6][10]. - Industries with demand from other markets, particularly those with established market shares and competitive advantages, are expected to perform better. Sectors such as Technology Hardware and Home Appliances have shown potential for growth in non-U.S. markets [11][14]. - Domestic demand-driven industries, particularly in consumption and infrastructure, are closely tied to government policy support. The article highlights the importance of fiscal measures to mitigate external shocks [18][20]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2018-2019 trade tensions, noting that the current market dynamics reflect similar patterns of initial decline followed by recovery phases. The sectors that are less dependent on U.S. demand have shown more resilience, while those heavily reliant on U.S. markets have faced significant declines [21][25]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP and corporate profits is discussed, with estimates suggesting that a significant drop in exports to the U.S. could lead to a decline in GDP growth and a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. - The article concludes with a projection of market indices under different scenarios, emphasizing the need for policy support to counterbalance the negative effects of tariffs and the importance of sector-specific strategies for investors [37].

Core Insights - The article explores the underlying logic of stock selection ability Alpha, focusing on its purity, confidence, and heterogeneity, and proposes various improvement strategies to enhance its sustainability and predictive power [1][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of Traditional Time-Series Regression Alpha - Historical data shows that the proportion of equity funds with Alpha acquisition capability across different factor models fluctuates between 40% and 80%, significantly decreasing when requiring a significant p-value [3]. - Compared to cumulative return indicators, Alpha exhibits better sustainability [3]. - Long-term, constructing long positions with Alpha can yield returns exceeding market averages, but the presence of mixed components obscures the true fund capability, leading to unstable excess returns [3]. Group 2: Improving Alpha Purity through Regression Models - Cross-sectional regression is employed to reassess factor premiums, which helps mitigate information bias and omissions [5]. - Backtesting results indicate that cross-sectional regression Alpha shows significant improvements over time-series regression, with the IC mean for FF3 Alpha increasing from 4.52% to 6.30% [5]. - Key performance indicators such as annualized return and maximum drawdown for FF3 Alpha have improved, with tracking error decreasing from 4.8% to 2.5% [5]. Group 3: Incorporating Potential Factors to Purify Stock Selection Alpha - Incorporating different numbers of potential factors generally enhances the predictive performance of cross-sectional regression [6]. - For FF3, adding 1 to 3 potential factors increases the information ratio from 0.84 to 1.02, 1.00, and 1.24 respectively [6][8]. Group 4: Confidence of Alpha through P-Value Information - By integrating estimated standard error information, p-values can provide a more accurate assessment of estimation precision and stability [9][10]. - The annualized volatility decreases from 22.7% to 20.9% when using p-values to filter funds for constructing long positions, while tracking error and relative drawdown also improve significantly [10]. Group 5: Addressing Beta Anomalies - The average Alpha decreases significantly with increased exposure to SMB and HML Betas, indicating that traditional factor model-derived Alpha may not accurately reflect fund capabilities [15]. - Adjusting Alpha for Beta using various methods shows that fund regression Beta adjustments yield the best results, enhancing risk-adjusted returns [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth potential of Japanese telecom operators in emerging B2B businesses and international expansion, particularly focusing on NTT's strategies and performance in these areas [1][2][3]. Group 1: Emerging Business Strategies - Japanese telecom operators, including NTT, KDDI, and Softbank, are increasingly investing in B2B services, cloud computing, and data centers, with NTT leading in international business expansion [2][3]. - NTT has established NTT DATA to manage its emerging business, which includes system integration, cloud services, and global data center services [2][3]. - NTT DATA has expanded internationally through acquisitions, including the purchase of Verio in 2000 and Dell's IT services division in 2016, and operates over 150 data centers globally with a total load exceeding 1,400 MW [2][3]. Group 2: Traditional Business and Regulatory Environment - The traditional telecom business in Japan faces significant regulatory pressures, leading to a decline in mobile ARPU, which has been decreasing since 2021 due to government calls for lower pricing [3][30]. - Japanese telecom operators are diversifying into value-added services, including digital content, lifestyle services, and financial services, to stabilize revenue amid declining ARPU [3][38]. - The regulatory environment encourages fair competition and restricts excessive pricing and subsidies, impacting the operators' pricing strategies [30][35]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth - NTT's revenue from global solutions, primarily B2B services, has shown a CAGR of 9% from FY20 to FY23, while traditional communication revenue has only grown at 1% [16][45]. - The overall revenue growth for Japanese telecom operators has been steady, with NTT and KDDI achieving CAGRs of 2.0% and 4.0% respectively from FY10 to FY23 [45][47]. - NTT's capital expenditure is shifting towards emerging businesses, with plans to invest approximately 12 trillion yen from FY23 to FY27, focusing on digital transformation, AI, and data centers [50][53].

中金研究 五一消费恢复环比提速，看好居民消费需求持续释放 据商务部，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速相较24年国庆（4.5%）、25年春节（5.4%）呈环比提速；各省市及线上平台发 布的消费数据显示，长线游、出入境游均有亮眼表现，同时品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表现较好。展望后续，我们继续看好 消费提振政策逐步显效，全年居民消费需求持续释放。 1、五一期间商圈客流及消费延续回暖。 根据各省市数据，高线城市重点商圈客流较火热，北京60个重点商圈（+8.3%）、上海35个重点商圈 （+12.9%）、长沙五一商圈（峰值+22.2%）同比增幅明显，显示假期外出客流及消费意愿高涨。消费意愿方面，5月1至5日境内微信支付总消费订单同增 10%，显示出较好的消费热情。分地区看，根据各省市商务局披露，南京、上海、杭州等重点旅游城市消费数据（具体口径详见下方图表）分别同增 8.7%/13.1%/9.0%。 2、出入境游"双向奔赴"，品质游、长线游表现优。 交通运输部预计5月1日至5日全社会跨区域人员流动量约14.7亿人次，日均同比增长约8.0%，好于春 节及去年国庆；据飞猪统计， ...

资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 国内经济与政策：假期出行旅游稳步增长，A股上市公司业绩回升，政策持续发力 ► 假期数据：1）客流量稳步增长。 根据交通运输部数据[1]，4月30日至5月3日全社会跨区域人员流动量达112,851万人次，同比+5.2%。其中，公路人员 流动量103,374万人次，同比+4.6%；铁路客运量7,912万人次，同比+0.7%；民航客运量890万人次，同比+13.6%；水路客运量675万人次，同比+37.4%。 2）旅游热情延续。 节前国家移民管理局预计[2]今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。携程五一首日出境游订 单同比呈双位数增长，入境游订单量同比涨141%；此外，旅游目的地呈现一定下沉，假期首日携程平台县域旅游订单同比增长近两成，乡村游订单增长 超40%[3]。 3 ） 电影票房有所回落。 根据灯塔数据，截至5月4日，五一档四日票房达6亿元，此前2023、2024年五一档总票房分别为15.2亿元[4]、15.3亿 元[5]。 点击小程序查看报告原文 中国大陆劳动节假期结束，假期出行数据较好，A股一季报业绩回升，海外经济增长放缓但就业有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025, with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first shrinkage in nearly three years. Concerns over tariffs have led to a surge in imports, which negatively impacted GDP growth, while consumption and investment remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, the economy may face further pressure in Q2 due to increased tariffs, inventory depletion, and declining exports [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, real GDP fell short of market expectations, declining from a robust 2.4% in Q4 2024 to -0.3%. The surge in actual goods imports, which rose by 41.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, significantly detracted from GDP growth by 4.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, private domestic final sales increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating stable domestic demand prior to the tariff implementation [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment showed mixed results, with equipment investment rebounding significantly to a growth rate of 22.5%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP. However, real estate and construction growth slowed, reflecting ongoing pressures from high interest rates. Personal consumption expenditure growth also declined from 4.0% to 1.8%, with durable goods consumption turning negative [4][5]. Future Economic Outlook - The second quarter is expected to face additional economic pressure as imports may slow down due to tariffs, potentially alleviating some of the negative impact from "import rushing." However, this could lead to greater disruptions in economic activity. Inventory depletion is anticipated to further suppress economic growth, while consumer spending may slow due to higher costs [5][6]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with April's non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations. However, the labor market may face increased pressure from tariff-related uncertainties, which could dampen overall employment growth [6][7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation risks remain elevated, with the core PCE price index rising from 2.6% to 3.5% in Q1 2025, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The ongoing high tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations may exacerbate inflationary pressures, particularly affecting low-income consumers reliant on affordable goods [9][10]. - Given the current economic landscape, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain a neutral to hawkish stance, as resilient GDP and employment data do not support rate cuts. Future rate decisions will depend on the evolution of tariff impacts and inflation trends [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]