Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition among major food delivery platforms, highlighting record-breaking order volumes and aggressive subsidy strategies to capture market share in the instant retail sector. Group 1: Record Performance - Meituan reported a record high of 150 million orders on July 12, with over 50 million for "Shenqiangshou" and over 35 million for "Pinghaofan" [1] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced a daily order volume exceeding 80 million, with a 15% increase in daily active users, reaching over 200 million [1][12] - The overall market capacity has expanded due to increased consumer willingness and participation, driven by substantial investments from the platforms [12] Group 2: Subsidy Strategies - Meituan and Taobao Flash Sale continued their weekend subsidy campaigns, with Meituan offering various discount vouchers and Taobao providing a 188 yuan coupon package [3][5] - The competition has led to a significant increase in order volumes, with Taobao Flash Sale capturing 60% of the incremental market share [21] - JD.com has shifted to a more refined subsidy strategy, launching a "Double Hundred Plan" to support quality dining merchants, with over 200 brands achieving over 1 million orders [13][14] Group 3: Financial Implications - Despite impressive order growth, the intense subsidy competition is straining the platforms financially, with projected losses of 410 billion yuan for Alibaba and 260 billion yuan for JD.com in the upcoming year [15][18] - The total annual investment in this competition is expected to reach around 100 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of such aggressive spending [18][20] - The stock prices of Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have all seen declines of over 3% since July [19] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The subsidy war is expected to continue, with platforms signaling their commitment to maintaining high levels of investment to deter new entrants [20][16] - The competition has evolved into a weekly and potentially monthly occurrence, with platforms aiming to create a new promotional holiday [11][16] - The rapid growth in order volumes raises questions about the long-term viability of such strategies, as the sustainability of consumer demand remains uncertain [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant turmoil due to political uncertainty and fiscal concerns, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing critical levels, indicating heightened market anxiety [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On July 15, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008. The 20-year yield increased by 3.5 basis points to 2.64%, and the 30-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.195%, both reaching levels not seen since 1999. Bonds with maturities of 20 years or more have seen yields rise by at least 20 basis points this month [1][3]. - The rise in the 10-year yield is particularly concerning as it directly impacts the economy, being a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates, which will increase financing costs for businesses and households [3][5]. Group 2: Political Context and Market Reactions - The upcoming July 20 Senate elections are a key factor driving the rise in bond yields, with concerns that the ruling coalition may lose, leading to a significant shift in fiscal policy and increased selling pressure in the bond market [5][6]. - Polls indicate a declining trend in expected seats for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, raising fears of a potential shift to more populist policies that could exacerbate fiscal deficits and undermine investor confidence in bonds [5][7]. - Analysts warn that if the ruling coalition loses, it could trigger a sell-off of long-term bonds by foreign investors, particularly due to fears of potential consumption tax cuts [5][7]. Group 3: Global Context - The rise in Japanese bond yields is part of a broader global trend, with long-term government bond yields falling worldwide as investors express concerns over government spending exceeding sustainable levels [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan's governor has indicated that while the impact of long-term yields on the economy is limited compared to short-term debt, the situation will be closely monitored [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and profitability of Pop Mart, driven by the popularity of Labubu, with a 180% increase in stock price this year and a projected cash flow return on investment (CFROI) of 24% in 2024, potentially exceeding 40% in 2025/2026. However, market pricing suggests a cautious outlook, expecting CFROI to decline to 32% by 2029, indicating skepticism about the company's ability to sustain high growth and profit margins [1][5][10]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart's profitability is exceptional compared to global toy and character brand companies, with a 2024 CFROI of 24% driven by doubled sales and recovering EBITDA margins. The company's profit margin reached 42%, significantly higher than the industry median of approximately 20% [2][4]. - The asset turnover ratio has improved to the industry average due to accelerated sales growth over the past two years [2]. Market Expectations - Despite strong financial forecasts, the market's implied expectations are conservative, predicting a decline in CFROI to 32% by 2029 [5][6]. - There is a notable discrepancy between analysts' optimistic forecasts and the cautious market pricing, suggesting a lack of confidence in Pop Mart's ability to maintain high profitability levels over the long term [8]. Valuation Analysis and Scenarios - The UBS HOLT model outlines three potential scenarios for Pop Mart: - **Market Implied Scenario**: Current pricing reflects a slight sales growth slowdown to 24% and a return of EBITDA margins to a five-year median of 35%, still outperforming industry averages of 6% sales growth and 20% profit margins [9]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: If Pop Mart maintains recent growth levels of 28% and profit margins of 40%, the stock could see a potential increase of approximately 43% [9]. - **Pessimistic Scenario**: If the popularity of the company's IP declines, leading to a sales growth slowdown to 20% and profit margins dropping to around 25%, the stock could face a decline of about 42% [9]. Strategic Positioning - Pop Mart is at a critical juncture, with impressive financial data and growth momentum. The key for investors lies in assessing whether the company's strong IP creation and brand appeal can endure through market cycles and establish itself as a globally successful consumer brand [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800 [1] Group 1: Product and Cost Insights - Apple will use Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design for the foldable iPhone, rather than its own solution, to ensure mass production by 2026 [1][4] - The bill of materials (BOM) for the iPhone Fold is estimated at $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE, with pricing likely between $1,800 and $2,000 due to Apple's cost control capabilities [2] - Initial production is expected to be limited to 10-15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price point of foldable devices [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The adoption of SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain [4] - Fine M-Tec, as SDC's metal plate supplier, is projected to start shipping display metal plates in Q1 2026 at a unit price of $30-35, with an expected shipment volume of 13-15 million units, capturing over 80% of the supply share [5] - Samsung Display is anticipated to be the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual capacity of 15 million units, while LG Display may serve as an alternative supplier [5] - Apple may utilize titanium for the outer shell and liquid metal for the hinge, benefiting suppliers like Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Foxconn [5] Group 3: Market Response - Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have positively impacted market sentiment, with Fine M-Tec's stock surging by 29.97% to 9,280 KRW on the KOSDAQ market [6] - Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "buy" rating with a target price of 8,200 KRW, noting that only two companies possess the required technical capabilities in the metal plate sector [7] - The launch of the foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Xinxing Electronics, and Samsung SDI, which are currently trading below historical average valuations [8] Group 4: Market Trends - The global foldable smartphone market is currently showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing and a projected decline in 2025 due to high prices and concerns over durability and usability [9] - Samsung maintains a leading position in this segment with the most comprehensive foldable product line, while brands like OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are introducing unique foldable designs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the importance of urban development in China, highlighting the need for a modernized urban framework that prioritizes innovation, livability, sustainability, resilience, and smart governance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements for Urban Work - The conference outlined that urban work should be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, focusing on high-quality urban development and adapting to the changing urbanization phase from rapid growth to stable development [2][3]. Key Tasks for Urban Development 1. **Optimizing Modern Urban Systems** - Focus on enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, promoting urban clusters and coordinated development between large, medium, and small cities [3]. 2. **Building Innovative Cities** - Foster an innovative ecosystem and enhance urban dynamism through reform and high-quality urban renewal [4]. 3. **Creating Livable Cities** - Integrate planning for population, industry, and transportation, and improve public services while ensuring basic living standards [4]. 4. **Developing Green and Low-Carbon Cities** - Strengthen ecological governance and implement effective measures for air quality, water source protection, and pollution reduction [4]. 5. **Establishing Resilient Cities** - Enhance infrastructure safety, upgrade old pipelines, and improve disaster prevention and public safety measures [4]. 6. **Promoting Civilized Cities** - Protect historical and cultural heritage while enhancing the cultural soft power of cities [4]. 7. **Implementing Smart City Initiatives** - Innovate urban governance methods and improve responsiveness to citizens' needs through effective communication channels [5]. Leadership and Implementation - The conference stressed the necessity of strong party leadership in urban work, advocating for improved governance structures, policy coordination, and a focus on practical results to combat formalism and bureaucratism [5][6].

H20，是为遵守美国出口限制而推出，专为中国市场设计的AI加速器。H20基于英伟达Hopper架 构，拥有CoWoS先进封装技术。H20更适用于垂类模型训练、推理，无法满足万亿级大模型训练需 求，整体性能略高于910B。 来源：央视新闻 美国英伟达公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋今天在接受总台央视记者采访时宣布两个重要进展： 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋表示：" 美国政府已经批准了我们的出口许可，我们可以开始发货 了，所以我们将开始向中国市场销售H20。 我非常期待能很快发货H20，对此我感到非常高兴，这 真是个非常、非常好的消息。第二个消息是，我们还将发布一款名为RTX Pro的新显卡。这款显卡非 常重要，因为它是专为计算机图形、数字孪生和人工智能设计的。" 新闻背景 美国政府今年4月决定禁止英伟达向中国市场销售其H20芯片。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 美国已批准H20芯片销往中国 英伟达将推出RTXpro GPU ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents nationwide was 21,840 yuan, showing a nominal year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and a real increase of 5.4% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 28,844 yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.7% and a real growth of 4.7%, while rural residents had a per capita disposable income of 11,936 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.9% and a real growth of 6.2% [2] Group 2 - The median per capita disposable income for residents was 18,186 yuan, indicating a nominal year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3] - The sources of income for residents showed nominal growths of 5.7% for wage income, 5.3% for operating net income, 2.5% for property net income, and 5.6% for transfer net income [2]

Core Viewpoint - A policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, and investors should adopt an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields breach critical levels, triggering a market collapse [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from fiscal detox to unrestrained spending, creating a "beautiful bubble" to cover massive bills, with risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies responding positively [2][9]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is a key catalyst for the current rally, as evidenced by the low levels of volatility in both bond and stock markets [2][12]. - Hartnett suggests maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the US 30-year Treasury, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Hartnett emphasizes that bonds are the least favored asset class, with the trading logic of "Anything but Bonds" gaining traction globally [4]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen by 114%, outperforming other asset classes, while US Treasuries have declined by 1% [5]. - The ratio of European stocks to bonds has surpassed 2000 highs, indicating the end of a long-term deflationary era in Europe and Japan [5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - The surge in US debt issuance is projected to push total debt beyond $50 trillion by 2032, with demand declining until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett warns that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to a "beautiful bubble" financed by massive deficits [9][11]. - A long-term bearish trend for the US dollar is anticipated, with recommendations to increase allocations to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets in the latter half of the 2020s [11]. Group 4: Market Signals and Investor Sentiment - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12][13]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a typical profit-taking or summer pullback if it shows extreme optimism [12]. - Hartnett highlights a divergence in market sentiment, with macro strategists fearing a bond market sell-off while equity and credit market participants remain optimistic due to anticipated economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [13][14]. Group 5: Policy Environment - The global policy environment remains accommodative, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates, supporting risk appetite [14]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the US compared to 2024, upcoming tax cuts in 2026 and increasing fiscal stimulus from Europe and NATO are expected to provide effective counterbalances [14]. - The consensus is that any negative macro impacts from US tariff increases will be quickly mitigated, reinforcing investor risk appetite and driving the ongoing global stock market rally [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant resurgence of the Hong Kong IPO market, with a record fundraising amount in the first half of 2025, reaching 1,067 million HKD, nearly eight times that of the same period last year, reclaiming the top position globally [4][11][12] - The article notes that this is the first time in history that six companies have listed simultaneously on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a vibrant IPO environment [2][5] - The influx of A-share companies to the Hong Kong market has been a major contributor, with four A-share companies accounting for nearly 70% of the total IPO fundraising in the first half of 2025 [6][13][14] Group 2 - The article discusses the changing landscape of IPO underwriting, with foreign investment banks regaining prominence, occupying six of the top ten spots in underwriting amounts for Hong Kong IPOs in the first half of 2025 [7][8][35] - In contrast, the A-share market has seen stable IPO fundraising, maintaining around 37 billion CNY, while the Hong Kong market has experienced a significant increase [9][45] - The article emphasizes the competitive nature of the IPO market, with underwriting fees for major projects being notably low, reflecting the intense competition among investment banks [40][41][42] Group 3 - The article mentions that the Hong Kong market's strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 20% in the first half of 2025, has contributed to the active IPO environment [22][23] - It also highlights the support from government policies aimed at facilitating the listing process for companies, which has accelerated the speed of IPO approvals [14][16][18] - The article points out that many A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by the favorable market conditions and the need for global expansion [21][20]

在周一下午举办的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况，并答记者问。 邹澜在发布会上表示，如果把地方专项债置换地方融资平台贷款进行还原，按可比口径贷款同比增速还会更高一些。下阶段， 人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松 的货币政策，密切关注评估前期已实施政策的传导情况和实际效果 。 邹澜指出， 当前美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向好，人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础 。中国不寻求通过汇率贬值获 取国际竞争优势，人民银行的汇率政策立场是清晰和一贯的，将继续坚持市场在汇率形成的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，同时强化预期引导， 防范汇率超调风 险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 若排除地方政府债券置换的影响，贷款同比增速还要更高一些 邹澜表示，从上半年金融数据看，货币政策支持实体经济效果比较明显。6月末，社会融资规模存量同比增8.9%，M2同比增8.3%，人民币贷款同比增7.1%， 如果把地方专项债置换地方融资平台贷款进行还原，按可比口径贷款同比增速还会更高一些。 5月7日宣布的一揽子货币政策已在一个月内全部落地实施 邹澜在国新办新 ...