Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the U.S. has significantly increased imports, but the accumulation of inventory has lagged behind, raising questions about the sustainability of this import surge and whether "safe" inventory levels will rise [2][57]. Group 1: Import Surge and Inventory Accumulation - The U.S. has experienced a notable surge in imports since early 2025, particularly following the election of Trump, which heightened expectations of increased tariffs. This surge is reflected in data from Chinese exports, U.S. imports, and port activity [2][57]. - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% in March. However, the inventory accumulation during this period was significantly lower, contributing only 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth compared to the 5 percentage points dragged down by imports [6][13][57]. - Monthly data indicates that the growth rate of U.S. imports has consistently outpaced that of inventory accumulation, suggesting a mismatch between import levels and inventory growth [19][57]. Group 2: Understanding the Discrepancy Between Inventory and Imports - The discrepancy between inventory accumulation and imports can be attributed to robust domestic demand and statistical lag in inventory reporting. In the first quarter, while inventory growth increased across most sectors, stable domestic demand, particularly in investment, kept the inventory-to-sales ratio relatively stable at 1.34 in March [3][23][57]. - Inventory growth typically lags behind import growth by about three months due to the time required for goods to be transported and recorded in inventory data. This suggests that the inventory levels are still on an upward trajectory [30][57]. - Since late 2024, excess imports of consumer goods have been sufficient to support approximately 1.3 months of consumption, raising concerns about potential impacts on retail pricing [31][57]. Group 3: Future of Import Demand - The momentum for U.S. imports is likely to diminish after the 90-day tariff suspension period ends, with key tariff deadlines approaching in July and August 2025. This could lead to a reduction in the urgency to import [4][35][57]. - Data suggests that inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand may suppress future import needs. The second quarter may see a lagged increase in inventory growth, coupled with a marginal decline in domestic demand, potentially reducing import momentum in the latter half of the year [4][45][57]. - The level of "safe" inventory remains a source of uncertainty, influenced by trade policy fluctuations and inflation levels. If trade uncertainties persist, companies may opt to maintain higher inventory levels [48][59][57].

摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战 海外市场集体上涨，美债利率快速回落。 当周，纳指上涨2.0%，日经225上涨2.2%；10Y美债收 益率下行10bp至4.41%；美元指数上涨0.3%至99.44，离岸人民币升至7.2065；WTI原油下跌 1.2%至60.8美元/桶，COMEX黄金下跌1.8%至3289.4美元/盎司。 特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战。 5月28日，美国国际贸易法院判决特朗普IEEPA关税违法，特朗 普当日向联邦上诉法院提起上诉，上诉法院5 月 29 日发出行政中止命令，暂时冻结国际贸法院的关 税违法判决，当前关税在行政中止令有效期间继续征收。 鲍威尔会见特朗普，美国4月PCE通胀符合市场预期。 鲍威尔在白宫会见特朗普，讨论包括增长、 就业、通胀等问题，美联储声明强调鲍威尔没有与特朗普讨论降息问题，以及美联储降息决策不受总 统影响。4月美国PCE通胀同比2.1%，环比0.1%，基本符合市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、海外大类资产&基本面&重要事件：特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战 （一）大类资产：海外市场集 ...

摘要 事件： 5月31日，国家统计局公布5月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49%；非制造业PMI为50.3%、前值 50.4%。 核心观点： 5月新出口指数偏低，但内需如消费品、装备制造行业PMI明显改善。 5月制造业PMI整体与分项读数均有改善；相对来看，生产指数恢复程度更好，而需求指数偏低。 5月制造业PMI 有所回升，边际上行0.5pct至49.5%。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数均有回升，边际分别上行0.9、0.6pct。由于 PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看，生产指数回升至荣枯线以上 （50.7%），而新订单指数（49.8%）仍在收缩区间，反映生产明显加快，但需求仍较弱。 展望后续：目前美国关税政策的不确定性依然较大，后续需重点关注增量财政政策对内需的支撑效果。 5月29日， 美国国际贸易法庭裁决特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)加征关税的行为违法，但美国联邦巡回上诉法 院发出行政中止命令，暂时冻结国际贸易法庭的特朗普关税违法判决，当前关税在整个上诉期间继续征收。目前 外部不确定性仍较大，而金融政策已先行落地，后续应重点关注增量财政"续力"的可 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a tax reduction bill, which has led to a "triple kill" in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6][17]. - It highlights the potential impact of the bill on the federal deficit and interest rates, suggesting that the new tax measures could exacerbate the deficit [10][11]. - The article also examines the ongoing trends in employment and wage growth across various sectors, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [11][14]. Group 2: Deep Dives - A detailed analysis of the tax reduction bill outlines its components, including extensions of existing tax cuts and new tax measures, which collectively could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a pillar of the national economy, noting its resilience amid changing economic conditions [16]. - It provides insights into the automotive sector, reporting a sustained increase in vehicle sales, which may indicate a recovery in consumer spending [15][18]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Trends - The article discusses the potential for new policies to smooth out fiscal spending rhythms, thereby supporting economic recovery [14]. - It raises concerns about profit sustainability in industrial enterprises, particularly in light of tariff disruptions and cost fluctuations [14]. - The article also touches on the overlooked aspects of service consumption recovery, attributing it to reduced leisure time rather than income effects [19].

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant front-loading of fiscal debt financing, which has positively impacted expenditure performance. From January to April, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2% [2][8][72] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds. From January to April, the net financing of government debt was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming the core support for broad fiscal expenditure [3][21][73] - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt. As of the end of May, 6.3 trillion yuan has been net financed, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32][74] Group 2 - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is not due to improved revenue, as the cumulative fiscal revenue from January to April showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, mainly due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues [2][14][72] - The government is expected to maintain a high level of net financing for government debt until the end of September, with the second quarter's net financing expected to increase by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the third quarter maintaining a historically high level of 3.8 trillion yuan [4][35][74] - To smooth out economic fluctuations in the second half of the year, the government may introduce incremental policies to stabilize broad fiscal expenditure growth, especially given the uncertainties in economic recovery [5][37][74] Group 3 - Various policies are available to mitigate fluctuations in the second half of the year, including flexible budgetary tools and policy financial instruments that can be deployed quickly. The effectiveness of these tools has been validated in practice since 2022 [6][39][74] - The focus of incremental funding will be on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to stimulate consumption [7][50][74] - The government is likely to consider additional funding if fiscal revenue falls short of budget targets, which could impact the support of fiscal expenditure for nominal GDP [7][44][74]

报告正文 2. 政策跟踪：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 2.1 总书记河南考察：制造业是国民经济的重要支柱 5月19-20日，习近平总书记对"十五五"规划编制工作作出重要指示并赴河南进行考察调研。习近平总书 记指出，"十五五"规划编制要坚持科学、民主、依法决策，企业要根据规划调整战略，把握政策红利，推动 产业结构优化升级。在河南考察时，总书记强调，制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保 持制造业合理比重，同时，现代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子。 2.2 商务部例行发布会：做强国内市场、促进消费 5月22日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，剔除做强国内市场，促进消费，更好发挥消费对经济循环的牵 引带动作用。发布会上，商务部剔除将加快实施提振消费专项行动，推进促消费政策落实；加快完善现代商 贸流通体系，支持再生资源回收和二手商品流通，推进电商高质量发展；加快推进内外贸一体化，帮扶企业 有效应对外部冲击。对于刚刚结束的APEC第三十一届贸易部长会议，发言人表示中方愿与各方深化经济合 作，加快区域经济一体化。 | 时间 | 事件 | 内容概要 | 主要内容 加快实施提振消费专项行 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 报告正文 5月29日，美国国际贸易法庭裁决特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)加征关税的行为违法，美国贸易战的合法性面临哪些挑战？ 特朗普能否拒绝执行？ 从裁决书下发时刻起，根据《行政程序法》，前期加征关税的行政命令已经失效；关税应当被立即停收。裁决中命令政府部门10个日 历日内发布必要的行政命令，以执行永久禁令。即便这一行政命令未颁布，理论上关税也应立刻被取消，否则可视为藐视法庭。 谁是起诉方？ 此次判决是两个起诉的合并审理。一是12 个州民主党籍总检察长联名（俄勒冈州领衔）起诉特朗普政府；二是由非营利组织自由司法中心代理 的5家进口商企业起诉特朗普，包括V.O.S. Selections(酒类进口)、Genova Pipe(塑料管材)等。 判决理由是什么？ 一是特朗普的关税超出IEEPA授权，法院认为总统绕过《1974贸易法》直接使用IEEPA，属于越权，IEEPA未允许总统无限制设定关税税 率；二是以芬太尼与移民问题为由征收关税不符合IEEPA法定条件，关税与打击芬太尼、移民问题之间缺乏合理关联。 IEEPA有何争议？ 一是IEEPA授予总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].

高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所走弱，汽车销售持续走强。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行。 本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.4pct至2.1%。化工链生产边际回 升，纯碱、PTA、涤纶长丝开工同比分别+0.1pct至-4.7%、+0.7pct至5.4%、+0.8pct至4.1%。而汽车半钢胎 开工率小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至-2.6%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工有所走弱。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率有较大回落，同比分 别-1.1pct至-4.6%、-1pct至-8%。沥青开工率明显回落，同比-8.8pct至-2%。 风险提示 经济转型面临短期约束，政策落地效果不及预期，居民收入增长不及预期。 4. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所走弱 上游生产中，高炉开工率保持韧性，表观消费略有回升。 本周（05月18日至05月24日），高炉开工率 同比-0.4pct至2.1%；表观消费略有回升，同比较前周上行+0.1pct至-4.8%。此外，钢材社会库存延续回落。 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 、耿佩璇 摘要 图 48：本周，钢厂盈利率同比小幅回落 全国247家钢厂盈利率 = = = = ...

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost rate performance compared to previous years, with respective increases of 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and a decrease of 18.2 basis points to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Export - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The "export rush" temporarily supported revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing chain, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percentage points to 7.8% [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid- and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Past experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, causing profit growth to fall more sharply than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily due to improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sector, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8, 7.0, and 2.9 percentage points for food, alcohol, and agricultural products, respectively [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].