关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月14日，海关公布6月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比5.8%、预期3.6%、前值4.8%；进口 （美元计价）同比1.1%、预期-0.6%、前值-3.4%。 核心观点：对新兴国家"抢出口"接近结束，对美国"抢出口"开始发酵 然而，此前通过新兴国家"抢出口"的现象仍继续退坡。 从四大类出口商品来看，此前主要面向新兴经济 体出口的中游制造类商品（-0.6pct至5.7%）于本月继续下滑。尽管肥料（+63.7pct至59.3%）的出口回升 明显，但其规模较小；规模较大的集成电路（-9.2pct至24.2%）等增速明显回落，进一步验证了我国对新 兴国家的"抢出口"现象持续退坡。 展望未来，7月我国出口有望因对美"抢出口"延续而维持韧性，但"抢出口"或在8月结束，届时出口将面 临需求透支带来的负面影响。 新兴国家对等关税暂停期将结束，7 月"抢转口"必要性下降。但对美"抢出 口"有望接续，两个指标可做参考：一是通常领先出口一个月的加工贸易进口同比在6 月继续回升；二是 义乌小商品价格仍维持高位。 常规跟踪：出口、进口均 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Developed markets experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.0% [2][4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index increased by 0.9% to 97.87 [2][4] - The expiration of tariff exemptions led to increased tariffs on 14 countries, effective August 1, including Japan and South Korea at 25% [2][4][66] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the U.S., most sectors within the S&P 500 saw declines, particularly financials (-1.9%), consumer staples (-1.8%), and communication services (-1.2%) [9] - Conversely, energy, utilities, and industrial sectors showed gains of 2.5%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively [9] - In the Eurozone, non-essential consumer goods, industrials, and energy sectors rose by 2.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively, while communication services and utilities fell [9] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices generally increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.9% to $68.5 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 3.0% to $70.4 per barrel [48] - COMEX gold increased by 0.8% to $3359.8 per ounce, while COMEX silver surged by 5.9% to $38.9 per ounce [48][54] - LME copper fell by 2.4% to $9640 per ton, while LME aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.1% [54] Group 4: Currency Movements - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, with most currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the Japanese yen (-2.0%) and the British pound (-1.1%) [31][42] - The offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1736 against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.1710 [42][31] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The U.S. fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $804.4 billion, up from $772.5 billion the previous year, with total expenditures at $4.4 trillion [69][70] - The June FOMC meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing it would have a temporary effect while others anticipated a more lasting impact [81][82]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade in overseas markets, driven by the successful implementation of the "Beautiful Act" and favorable economic indicators such as lower-than-expected inflation and resilient employment data [2][6][21] - The article highlights that the domestic market is experiencing a mild economic recovery, with consumer policies effectively stimulating demand, as evidenced by a significant increase in retail sales growth in May [3][29] - The article notes that the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a faster recovery in domestic orders compared to new export orders [3][29] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation risks in the U.S. as the focus shifts to potential price increases following the recent rise in retail prices and manufacturing price indices [4][55] - It discusses the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China, which aim to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and promote structural upgrades in industries [4][69] - The article mentions that the financial market sentiment has been positively influenced by policies promoting financial openness and the lack of further tariff increases on China during recent U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][49]

Group 1: Key Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling and increases the deficit rate, legalizing "Trump economics" [7] - The act is projected to impact the nominal GDP of the year at $29.2 trillion, with a 10-year deficit effect of $3.9 trillion, accounting for 13% of the GDP [7] - The act's economic effects and potential to reignite "U.S. debt panic" are under scrutiny [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Trends - June inflation data shows a CPI of 0.1% year-on-year, with PPI at -3.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends [16] - The U.S. is shifting from equal tariffs to "discriminatory tariffs," with new tariffs set to take effect on August 1, 2025 [19] - Domestic travel intensity remains high, reflecting robust consumer activity [21] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity and regulation of low-price competition among enterprises [29] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of promoting high-quality development in the marine economy and enhancing marine ecological protection [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the importance of policy coordination and market mechanisms [2][6][65] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee outlines a higher-level and broader coverage for the "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on the integration of local governments, enterprises, and residents [2][65] - The article identifies a significant decline in revenue growth for "involution" industries, dropping from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic reduction in average net profit growth to -28.2% [20][19][66] Group 2 - "Involution" is primarily manifested through low-price competition, which compresses supply chain costs, with accounts payable turnover decreasing to 4.6% in 2024, down by 1 percentage point from 2021 [26][31][66] - The internal cost-cutting measures in "involution" industries include a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% for 2024, and a decrease in management expenses growth to 2.6% [31][66] - The profitability of "involution" industries remains under pressure, with a return on assets (ROA) of 2.9% in 2024, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak, which may hinder long-term industry transformation and development [40][66] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, the focus should be on alleviating supply-demand contradictions and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50][66] - Structural transformation can be driven by policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][66] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service sector is crucial, as recent trends show a decline in employment in key service industries [56][66]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for key sectors [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of increasing technological innovation efforts and integrating technological achievements into production, while also improving public service efficiency through digital technology [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget draft, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs announced by Trump for 14 countries, effective August 1, which is close to the reciprocal tariffs from early April [1][14] - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. was 7.4%, with specific rates for countries such as China (38.6%), Japan (9.3%), and the UK (6.2%) [2][15] - The U.S. may adopt a strategy of sending tariff increase notifications in batches to exert targeted pressure during negotiations [2][15] Group 2 - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have reached a stalemate, particularly over issues related to automobile tariffs, while discussions with Mexico are nearing an agreement [3][16] - The EU aims for a limited framework agreement with the U.S., maintaining a 10% baseline tariff but seeking reductions in tariffs on specific products [3][16] - If all tariffs take effect on August 1, the simple average tariff rate for the U.S. on these 14 countries will rise to 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial reciprocal tariff rate of 33% [5][18] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to achieve three goals: industrial protection, addressing twin deficits, and leveraging diplomacy, which may create internal contradictions [4][17] - The concept of reciprocal tariffs is viewed as discriminatory, with trade deficit size being a key consideration for determining baseline tariff levels [4][17] - Approximately 100 economies with smaller trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see higher tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% if no agreements are reached [5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating mixed performance in commodity, core goods, and service prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI saw a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, driven by extreme weather affecting food supply [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by sufficient supply in steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop, while rising international oil prices provided some support to PPI [2][9][69]. - CPI's increase was supported by a 12.6% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing to a 0.8 percentage point increase in the CPI for other goods and services [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Goods Price Trends - Core goods PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The pressure on prices in high-export industries, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, continues, with respective declines of 0.4% and 0.2% [3][21][70]. - Conversely, core goods CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [3][21][70]. Group 3: Service Price Dynamics - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [4][30][61]. - The virtual rent CPI, which is a significant component of service CPI, showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [4][30][61]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of rent prices, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil supply, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [4][35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, particularly in private enterprises, is expected to hinder PPI recovery, with projections indicating continued weakness in PPI compared to CPI [4][35][70].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 4月初关税落地以来，美元汇率不升反降。"去美元化"已成为市场共识，关键问题是：弱美元是周期性的 还是趋势性的，美元再度走强的宏观场景有哪些？ 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 一、近期美元走弱的驱动？更多受降息预期影响，"周期性"因素主导 近期美元再度大幅走弱，引发市场对"去美元化"叙事的密切关注。 截至7月4日，美元指数已跌破97关 口，一度创2022年以来新低；相较5月12日反弹后的阶段性高点，美元贬值幅度高达4.7%。分国别来看， 美元兑发达经济体货币表现更弱，兑新兴市场也多有贬值。 降息预期的快速升温或是近期美元走弱的主要原因。 6月10日以来，联邦基金利率隐含的年内降息次数 由1.8次最高升至2.7次，10Y美债利率随之快速下行23bp，成为美元走弱的主要驱动。降息预期升温是三 方面因素的共振：通胀低于预期、经济弱于预期、联储官员放鸽。 伊以冲突缓和导致"避险"情绪退坡，美元空头回补，进一步加速了美元回落。 1）近期美元走势与油价 高度相关，随着伊以冲突缓和、油价回落，美元也随之走弱；2）市场做空美元力量也在积蓄，截至6月 24日，美元指数非商业 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires dropping by 7.7 percentage points to 9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2][29] - The national grinding operating rate for cement is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year, but overall demand remains subdued [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly declined, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year [2][53] - The freight volume related to domestic demand shows a slight increase, while port cargo throughput related to exports has decreased by 3% [2][62] - Travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% year-on-year [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork prices down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices show a slight increase, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in travel [2][74] - Container shipping prices have declined, with the CCFI composite index down by 1.9% [2][92]