以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 我原本以为我们正迎来四年的高速增长和美国经济的强劲活力，但如今错失了太多机会。 " 美东时间 6 月 5 日举行 2025 年福布斯 " 异见者峰会 " 上， Citadel 创始人兼 CEO 肯 · 格里芬（ Ken Griffin ）参与了重磅对话，话题直指当下最棘手的三件事：关税风暴、美国债务危机以及 " 大而美法案 " 。 肯 · 格里芬创办的城堡投资（ Citadel ）目前管理的资产超过 660 亿美元。据 LCH Investments 统计， 城堡投资是史上盈利最高的对冲基金，截至 2024 年底，累计 回报约 830 亿美元，遥遥领先第二名 D.E. Shaw 的 672 亿美元，第三名的千禧年（ Millennium）则为 655亿美元。 同时，他旗下的做市巨头城堡证券更是承担了全美约四分之一的股票交易量。 去年 12 月，格里芬还曾对这届政府寄予厚望，期盼它能带来减税、去监管、鼓励增长的新气象，并高调宣 扬"美国已经开始对商业开放 " 。 如今再听他发言，语气早已转向：从关税政策到立法支出，他几乎句句都 ...

本周 推荐阅读 最近的川马口水战真是弹眼落睛。 好吧，忍不住又想起"看人非常全面"的芒格老爷子在2019年对话中对马斯克的评价，岂止是精辟，简直 就是准确预测。 稍稍感受一下。 问：说到电动车，你怎么看特斯拉？这家公司会成为这个领域的头号玩家吗？ 芒格： 它现在的地位，恐怕当初谁也没想到能这么高。马斯克这人，脑子够用，胆子也大，敢孤 注一掷。 聪明投资者，公众号：聪明投资者 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的 21分钟（2019年） 其他值得看 1、 地平线为何获得Baillie Gifford青睐？创始人余凯与劳伦斯·伯恩斯最新对话：希望成为"机器人的微 软" 2、 高毅资产吴任昊的内部分享，从航空发动机行业看"超级刀架刀片模式" 3 、 达利欧最新发文谈美国债务危机逼近，再提当下配置黄金"可守可攻" 当然，像他这样的人，有时候能干出惊天动地的事儿，也可能会摔得特别快。 我说不准马斯克最后会走向哪一边，但我觉得他成功的可能性很大，失败的风险也不小，而他对 这种状况乐在其中。 4、 摩根大通掌门人对美国经济症结的犀利拆解 5、 来自海外自由现金流ETF的启示 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment potential in the aviation engine industry, likening it to a "super razor-and-blade" model where initial sales are low-margin, but long-term service and parts replacement generate significant profits [4][16][22]. Group 1: Investment Insights - The aviation engine industry operates under a "triple constraint" where it must achieve high power, low fuel consumption, and extreme reliability simultaneously, making it a unique and challenging sector [10][12]. - The industry is characterized by a long product lifecycle, with significant cash flow generated from after-market services and parts replacement over decades [29][42]. - The market often misprices long-term value due to short-term fluctuations, presenting opportunities for investors who can identify these discrepancies [6][44]. Group 2: Business Model and Competition - The "super razor-and-blade" model in aviation engines involves selling engines at low margins while profiting from high-margin maintenance and parts over time [16][20]. - The CFM56 engine serves as a prime example of this model, showcasing a lengthy development and delivery cycle that creates a substantial technological moat [17][19]. - The aviation engine market is dominated by a few players, and the industry's focus on safety and compliance creates high barriers to entry for new competitors [27][28]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The aviation industry has recently faced challenges due to supply chain disruptions, impacting the delivery of new aircraft and subsequently increasing demand for after-market services [41][42]. - The industry's reliance on a global supply chain means that any disruption can significantly affect production and service timelines, highlighting the importance of operational resilience [40][41]. - The article notes that while the aviation engine market is currently stable, the long-term outlook remains dependent on technological advancements and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions [37][39].

6 月 4 日，桥水基金创始人瑞 · 达利欧在 X 上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核 心观点。 这位全球宏观投资者用 50 年主权债投资经验，再次系统揭示国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发， 而是一个可以量化、可监测的 " 大债务周期 " ，最终演变为系统性失控，正如他所比喻的 " 经济心脏 病发作 " 。 达利欧指出，美国当前财政收入约 5 万亿美元，支出却高达 7 万亿，债务总额逼近 30 万亿，未来十 年更可能升至 55 万亿。当利息支出挤压正常财政、国债需求下滑、央行被迫印钞时，整个货币体系就 将陷入 " 债务 — 通胀 — 再借债 " 的恶性螺旋。 这类机制曾反复出现在历史上，摧毁了英镑、荷兰盾等昔日的全球储备货币体系。 对于更多投资者而言，达利欧的建议一以贯之：在债务扩张、货币贬值的世界中，黄金、比特币等非政 府发行资产或将相对占优；同时，应关注那些财政稳健、地缘政治风险较低的国家市场，并减少对债务 类资产的依赖。 "我认为， 将一小部分资金配置在黄金中，不仅可以降低整个投资组合的风险，还很可能提升组合的长 期回报。 " 达利欧还强调，这场危机并非不可避免，但留给市场应对的时间窗 ...

"汽车正在从纯粹的机械设备，转变为某种像是'装上轮子的计算机'。" 点击阅读：《 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德， 而是长期成功的核心…… 》 "没有哪个电动车市场像中国这样：极其拥挤，竞争激烈，但它也有望以良好的品质和极低的价格，引 领全球电动车行业。" 地平线是成立于 2015 年的中国 AI 芯片独角兽，专注于为自动驾驶、智能驾驶和通用机器人提供软硬 件一体化的计算平台。 2024 年 10 月 24 日，地平线登陆港股主板市场，成为港股当年最大科技 IPO 。今年 2 月底其股价 曾一度超 10 港元，目前最新市值近千亿港元。 2024 年公司收入 23.84 亿元，同比增长 53.6% ；授权及服务收入增长 70.9% ，毛利率高达 92% ，这意味着公司不仅在卖芯片，还在往更高附加值的软件授权、全栈解决方案转型。 Baillie Gifford 是地平线的主要机构投资者之一。早在私募融资阶段，该公司即已投资地平线，并在 IPO 中认购约 5.07 亿股，投资约 2.6 亿美元，成为最大基石投资者之一。截至 2025 年 4 月，贝利 · ...

其他值得看 他谈到了价值投资的恒久原则，还谈到对外贸易、特朗普、比亚迪、马斯克……充满了普世的胸怀和理 性开放的心态，也有令人叫绝的精准预见。 点击阅读： 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的21分钟（2019年） 本周 推荐阅读 1、 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德，而是长期 成功的核心…… 2019年2月14日，查理·芒格在每日期刊年度股东会结束后，接受了雅虎财经主编安迪·瑟沃（Andy Serwer）的简短采访。 2、 最近卖光美股！82岁吉姆·罗杰斯：我现在坐拥大量现金，策略上和巴菲特完全一样 时隔6年回头看这场针对时事话题的访谈，芒格总能用他标志性的机智与智慧，将讨论带回那些超越时 间的洞见。 太值得回味了！enjoy it～～ 4、 稳健工具箱里的自由现金流和红利，究竟该如何选择？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信cong ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Charlie Munger's views on the future of BYD in the hybrid and electric vehicle sectors, predicting it will be a major winner [22] - Munger emphasizes the importance of value investing, stating that all wise investments are essentially value investments [60][64] - He highlights the competitive nature of the automotive market in the U.S. and the challenges for new entrants, particularly from China [19][20] Group 2 - Munger expresses a positive outlook on the trade relationship between the U.S. and China, welcoming the trade deficit as beneficial for China's development [10][12] - He acknowledges that China has advantages in certain fields compared to the U.S., which is a natural occurrence in global trade dynamics [13][16] - Munger reflects on the historical context of trade and competition, using the example of Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Dexter Shoe to illustrate the impact of globalization [14][15] Group 3 - The article mentions that BYD has stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles and is focusing on electric and hybrid cars, with significant sales growth in 2023 [23] - Munger believes that BYD's strength lies in its battery technology, positioning it well for future success in the electric vehicle market [21] - The discussion includes the competitive landscape of electric vehicles, with Tesla being recognized for its significant achievements [24]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of floating fee rate funds marks a significant transformation in the industry, with a focus on aligning fund manager compensation with long-term performance [1][18]. Summary by Sections Floating Fee Rate Funds - The first batch of floating fee rate funds was approved and launched, with performance benchmarks primarily against mainstream indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI A500 [1]. - The management fee structure is tiered based on annualized excess returns, with fees ranging from 0.60% to 1.50% depending on performance relative to benchmarks [1]. Fund Manager Profile - Zhu Hongyu from China Merchants Fund is highlighted as a suitable manager for these funds, possessing nearly 20 years of investment research experience and over 13 years in investment management [2]. - Zhu's extensive background in both public and private equity, along with a strong historical performance record, aligns with the requirements for managing floating fee rate funds [2][3]. Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Zhu Hongyu's investment approach is characterized by a three-tiered cognitive framework: understanding capability boundaries, recognizing industry life cycles, and insights into human behavior in market dynamics [6][8][13]. - The strategy emphasizes a balance between focused investments in well-understood companies and diversification across various sectors to mitigate risks [8]. Market Outlook - The current market is seen as transitioning into a phase of "profit stabilization and valuation recovery," with expectations of economic resilience supported by favorable policies [15]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as defense, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals, with a focus on undervalued assets and structural growth potential [16][17]. Conclusion - The introduction of floating fee rate funds represents not only a management model innovation but also a test of active equity fund managers' long-term capabilities [18]. - Zhu Hongyu's investment philosophy and experience provide a roadmap for navigating market uncertainties while aiming for sustainable long-term returns [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and leveraging investment strategies that focus on growth opportunities, particularly in the context of China's technological advancements and market trends [2][3][10]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy is heavily influenced by both Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher, highlighting the need for deep business understanding and smart investment decisions [1]. - Philip Fisher is recognized as the father of growth stock investment strategies, which focus on identifying key industry dynamics and trends [2]. - The emergence of significant technological advancements, such as the DeepSeek-R1 model, has revitalized the Chinese tech sector, creating a fertile ground for growth investments [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Trends - The article discusses the digital transformation and its implications for investment, referencing the historical context of China's internet development starting in 1995 [4][5]. - Li Tao, a prominent fund manager at Harvest Fund, has a long history in technology investment, witnessing multiple cycles in the tech sector since 2008 [6]. - Li Tao's investment strategy focuses on long-term growth, identifying companies with strong business models and competitive advantages, which has led to significant returns for his managed funds [7][10]. Group 3: Performance and Achievements - As of the first quarter of this year, Li Tao's managed fund, Harvest Information Industry, achieved a return of 43.95%, outperforming its benchmark by 21.34% [7]. - The article highlights the importance of a systematic research approach and team collaboration in identifying key industry opportunities and high-quality companies [19]. - Harvest Fund's innovative floating fee structure aims to align the interests of fund managers and investors, marking a new era for equity funds [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that technology growth will likely be a central investment theme through 2025, supported by domestic policies and the push for self-sufficiency [10]. - Li Tao believes that the demand for computing power will surge due to the explosion of AI applications, presenting significant investment opportunities [11]. - The article concludes that with the right experience, platform support, and investment strategies, companies can achieve mutual growth with investors [28].

Core Viewpoint - Jim Rogers expresses significant concern about the current state of the U.S. stock market, indicating that he has sold all his American stocks, suggesting that the market is nearing the end of a "party" phase [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections On Tariffs and Debt - Rogers believes tariffs are generally harmful and that they ultimately burden consumers, as they are essentially a tax on imports [7][8]. - He notes that China is currently experiencing a slowdown due to the aftermath of a real estate bubble and global trade contractions, but he expects China to remain patient in negotiations regarding tariffs with the U.S. [9][10]. - He expresses concern over the U.S. national debt, emphasizing that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in history and worries about the implications for future generations [11][12][17][45]. On Economic Conditions and Speculation - Rogers acknowledges that while economic data may appear strong, historical patterns suggest that such conditions often precede downturns, leading to his current worries about market sustainability [21][25][30]. - He highlights a surge in speculative behavior among new investors, which historically has led to negative outcomes [26][28]. On Interest Rates - Rogers predicts that interest rates will rise due to ongoing global inflation, suggesting that rates could exceed 5% in the coming years [36][39]. On Investment Opportunities - Currently, Rogers sees limited attractive investment opportunities globally, although he maintains a positive outlook on China and Uzbekistan [41][42][62]. - He has previously invested in India but currently holds no positions there, indicating a cautious approach to emerging markets [41]. On Personal Investment Strategy - Rogers holds a significant cash position and continues to invest in gold and silver, viewing them as long-term assets for his children [51][52]. - He expresses skepticism about the future of the U.S. dollar, acknowledging its current strength but warning of the unsustainable debt levels that could lead to a decline [56][57]. On Market Sentiment - Rogers advises investors to be extremely cautious in the current market environment, emphasizing the need for prudence amid rising excitement and confidence among market participants [64][70].