Group 1: Key Insights - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees, and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions, as well as the effectiveness of the policy [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, suggesting that subsequent policy financial tools may stabilize and strengthen credit performance [12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, attributing it to differences in holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a factor driving up oil and gold prices [18]. - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22]. Group 2: Economic Data and Trends - The article presents a detailed analysis of M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates, indicating trends in monetary supply [14]. - It includes charts depicting the year-on-year growth of social retail sales, breaking down contributions from various sectors [16]. - The article mentions the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes, including the decision to maintain the federal funds rate and adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts [25].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 摘要 5月"以旧换新"提速，或部分缘于电商平台大促集体提前、数码产品和汽车降价等。 "以旧换新"补贴数量 5月明显提速；家电、电动自行车补贴量5月同比分别达41.6%、29.5%。"以旧换新"提速，或部分缘于多 个电商平台"618"促销开始时间均较2024年提前至少一周；同时，部分数码产品与汽车5月降价或也一定 程度提振消费者"以旧换新"意愿。 近期部分地区国补额度告急，引发市场关注。与 2024 年相比，当前"以旧换新"机制有何变化，为何部分 地区国补使用较快？"以旧换新"政策效果如何？本文分析，可供参考。 "以旧换新"，今年有何不同？支持力度和补贴范围均提升，额度分配机制调整。 截至5月底"以旧换新"中央财政补贴已下达1620亿元，而部分地区补贴核销进度较快。 重庆披露，截至5 月21日其"以旧换新"中央补贴兑付进度达82.3%，6月3日其本轮家装厨卫、绿色智能家电补贴均使用完 毕。"以旧换新"补贴加快投放下，截至5月31日，全国消费品以旧换新销售额达1.1万亿元，发放补贴约 1.75亿份。 地方国补，缘何"暂停"？补贴扩围下 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 报告正文 2. 政策高频：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 2.1 国务院办公厅：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，将从统 筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革、推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展、建设更高水平 开放型经济新体制、健全科学化、精细化、法治化治理模式四个方面推进改革。广东将通过支持深圳建设一 批高水平高校、深化数据交易规则以及场景探索、支持前海高标准建设现代服务业集聚区、支持深圳推进放 宽市场准入特别措施等举措，全力以赴支持深圳的改革探索。 2.2 中办、国办：进一步保障和改善民生 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生，着力解决群众急难愁盼的 意见》。围绕民生保障，《意见》强调增强社会保障公平性，提出有效扩大社会保障覆盖面、加强低收入群 体兜底帮扶等政策举措。围绕公平性，《意见》强调提高基本公共服务均衡性，提出全方位提高基本公共服 务质效、推行由常住地提供基本公共服务等政策举措。围绕民生服务普惠性方面，《意见 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been significant, transitioning from a strong to a weak peg in just 1.3 months, which is unusually rapid compared to historical shifts [1][6][99] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which is atypical as previous shifts to the weak peg generally happened during periods of a strong dollar [1][6][99] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for HKD briefly fell below 7.75, indicating potential market concerns about the currency's stability [1][6][99] Group 2 - The initial trigger for the strong peg was due to a liquidity shortage caused by significant foreign capital inflows, large dividends from Hong Kong stocks, and a surge in fundraising activities [2][35][99] - Since the beginning of the year, cumulative inflows through the Stock Connect have reached 638.6 billion HKD, with foreign capital increasing by 5.1 million USD [2][35][99] - Major IPOs and substantial dividend payouts in the second quarter have further exacerbated liquidity constraints in the market [2][35][99] Group 3 - The approach of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may be relatively restrained if the weak peg is triggered again, as they might not significantly tighten HKD liquidity [3][68][100] - The HKMA has the option to issue Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) to manage market liquidity, although this has not been observed in the current situation [3][68][100] - A lower interest rate environment could benefit the Hong Kong economy and the stock market, as a weaker HKD may support exports and investment activities [3][68][90][100]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 美元指数大幅下跌，原油价格暴涨。 当周，海外涨跌分化，韩国综合指数上涨2.9%，德国DAX 下跌 3.2%，道指下跌1.3%。10Y美债收益率下行10bp至4.41%；美元指数下跌1.1%至98.15。 WTI原油大涨 13%至73.0美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨3.8%至3432.6美元/盎司。 中美第二轮贸易谈判结束，等待领导人批准协议。 6月11日，中美双方于伦敦举行的第二轮贸易谈判结 束，重点聚焦于落实日内瓦协议执行细节，涉及设立出口监督机制、放开稀土出口、优化学生签证等问 题。目前，谈判已完成，正等待双方领导最终批准。 5月美国核心CPI弱于市场预期，失业金申领人数上升。 5月美国核心CPI环比0.1%，低于市场预期，其中 服装、新车大幅降温，家电、玩具等分项仍有所升温，美国CPI在三、四季度或仍将进入上行区间；截止 6月7日当周，美国失业金初申领人数24.8万人，高于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 1 大类资产：美元指 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 核心观点：随后续政策性金融工具推出，信贷表现或趋于稳定持续走强。 5 月金融数据中最突出的变化是 M1 增速回暖，主要原因或有两点：其一，去年 "资金防空转" 政策下的低基数效应；其二，房地产销售边际回暖带 动资金注入企业端。 5月M1同比回升0.8个百分点，一方面源于去年"资金防空转"治理，使企业活期存款基数快速下降；另一方面，5月商品房成交 同比降幅收窄，部分资金转化为企业活期存款。 信贷持续性偏弱主要归因于企业部门，企业中长期贷款已连续两个月同比少增超1500亿元，这与PPI同比降幅扩大、企业未来预期不确定性仍存密切 相关。 企业投资计划与价格走势紧密相连，5月PPI同比降幅扩大至-3.3%，这或许预示着企业投资计划将进一步削减。同时，5月PMI中的企业生产 经营预期指数为也处于2024年10月以来的较低水平。 新增社会融资规模同比多增幅度收窄，主要是由于政府债净融资的基数抬升，财政融资"前置"推动社融快速改善的阶段可能已趋于结束。 社融存量 同比从2024年底的8.0%上升至8.7%，主因政府债净融资"前置" 。5月政府债净 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, questioning whether external shocks are obstacles or opportunities [5] - It highlights the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative as a significant expectation gap in the first half of the year [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook emphasizes the need for new changes in policies, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, as domestic export data enters a "verification period" [11] - The article explores the emergence of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing growth, suggesting that these tools are becoming increasingly relevant [12][14] - The booming inbound tourism sector is analyzed, noting the expansion of visa-free access for additional countries, which is expected to have significant macroeconomic implications [15] High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a shift in export strategies, with a transition from targeting emerging markets to focusing on the U.S. market [17] - It identifies three characteristics of stabilizing core CPI based on May inflation data [19] - The upcoming second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is highlighted, with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data [22] Policy Updates - Recent communications between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasize the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship and mutual respect [27][28] - The article discusses the implications of ongoing trade negotiations with various countries, including Canada, the EU, and Mexico, and their potential outcomes [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, fiscal constraints, and the implications of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and trade conflicts [3][8]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral mark for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, with the U.S. forecast reduced from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Contradictions - The economic impact of tariffs has become a central theme, with the focus shifting to macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4][53]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to approximately 16% by May 2025, marking a significant increase [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects but could increase long-term debt supply pressure [4][84]. Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The current economic baseline for the U.S. is a slowdown without recession, with inflationary pressures expected to persist for 2-3 quarters [5][8]. - The article suggests that if the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds no longer serve as "safe assets," it could challenge the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks and the sustainability of twin deficits [6][8]. - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. assets in the global market [6][8].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% [2][5] - The chemical chain shows resilience, with soda ash operating rates increasing by 2.7 percentage points, while PTA and polyester filament operating rates are stable compared to the previous week [2][15] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has significantly decreased, down 4.4 percentage points to 6.7% year-on-year [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry is experiencing weak performance, with a slight year-on-year decline in grinding operating rates by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% [2][25] - Cement shipment rates have increased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while asphalt operating rates have slightly risen by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3% [2][25] Group 3: Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have sharply declined, with average daily transaction area falling by 28.2% year-on-year [2][47] - Rail freight volume related to domestic demand has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput and container throughput have also seen significant declines of 4% and 10.9% respectively [2][58] - The CCFI composite index has rebounded significantly, increasing by 3.3% month-on-month, with the West America route seeing a notable price increase of 9.6% [2][77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and egg prices decreasing by 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, while vegetable and fruit prices have increased by 1.1% each [3][89] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.4% and metal prices down by 0.1% [3][100]