Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 截止到5月中旬，美国进口商品的平均关税税率已经降至16%左右，但仍处历史高位。目前已进入数据验 证期，如何观察美国的"抢进口"动能和"滞胀"压力？本文提出了一个监测框架。 热点思考： 美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架 一、关税冲击进入数据"验证期"，如何监测其经济影响？三大维度：贸易、价格、风险偏好 关税冲突虽有缓和，但美国税率仍处历史高位。 5月12日以来，美国对华进口平均关税税率降至42%，总 体平均税率降至16%，但仍处于历史高位。耶鲁大学预算实验室的测算认为，该关税或使美国GDP下降 0.65个点，通胀上升1.7个点。所以，"滞胀"是基准假设。 关税对美国经济的传导，可从贸易（数量）、价格、风险偏好三个维度进行监测。 1）贸易方面，关税 冲击体现为美国进口先增后减（抢进口）、出口受抑，并影响国内需求；2）价格方面，关税将由进口价 格传导至生产和消费价格，抑制实际消费需求；3）风险偏好方面，关税推升政策不确定性，影响金融压 力、美元指数，进而降低居民消费意愿、企业投资意愿。 二、短期内，应该关注哪些核心经济指标？进口、库存和通胀压力 一季度，美国开始抢 ...

Core Viewpoints - The core viewpoint indicates that with the strengthening of internal policies and the alleviation of external shocks, the expectations of micro entities may stabilize in the future [3][8][46] - The sudden increase in M2 year-on-year growth in April is primarily due to the rapid replenishment of non-bank deposits, which may be related to effective macro policies responding to tariff shocks, leading to accelerated capital market replenishment [3][46] - The April deposit data shows that non-bank deposits increased by 1.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 trillion, which is the main source of M2's year-on-year recovery [3][46] Financial Data Summary - In April, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 7.2%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%, and M2 increased by 1.0 percentage points to 8.0% [2][7][45] - The structure of social financing in April showed characteristics of "government bonds leading, corporate bonds improving," with government bonds increasing by 10.666 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of over 10 billion increase [20][32][49] - The April social financing increased by 11.591 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.249 billion, with corporate bond financing recovering [32][49] Credit Performance - In April, corporate credit exhibited a pattern of "loan decline and bond financing recovery," with short-term loans declining possibly due to previous "rush" and medium to long-term loans showing less increase due to debt resolution progress and tariff shock impacting corporate expectations [12][20][46] - The April resident credit performance was described as "tepid," with employment market pressures and tariff disturbances leading to a cautious debt attitude among residents [15][47] - The BCI enterprise recruitment index remained below 50 for two consecutive months (March-April), reflecting the pressure on the employment market [15][47] Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and the alleviation of external shocks is expected to resonate, potentially stabilizing micro entity expectations [25][48] - On May 7, the central bank announced ten specific measures including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut, reinforcing support for the capital market, real estate market, and private economy [25][48] - The phase-wise easing of China-US trade tensions is anticipated to further improve micro entity expectations and stabilize the release of corporate credit demand [25][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new signals released during the policy window period in late April, emphasizing the need for flexible and timely incremental policies in response to external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff negotiations and economic stability [2][11][70]. Group 1: New Signals from the Policy Window - The April Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations, while maintaining vigilance against external risks, marking the first use of the term "international economic and trade struggle" [3][11][70]. - The meeting emphasized the need for a flexible and unconventional policy toolbox, advocating for timely incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [3][11][70]. - Subsequent press conferences focused on stabilizing employment and the market, detailing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the private economy [4][12][13]. Group 2: Incremental Policy Adjustments - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves, with strong export performance driven by "export grabbing" [5][16][70]. - Financial policies have been introduced, including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural monetary policy tool interest rate reductions, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for banks [18][19][70]. - The government is closely monitoring the issuance and utilization of debt limits for existing policies while focusing on the potential for incremental policy "continuity" [21][28][70]. Group 3: Potential Focus Areas for Incremental Funding - If tariff negotiations progress smoothly, future policy focus may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural policy support [46][79][70]. - Consumer spending needs to be supported through mechanisms that reduce burdens and increase income, with a particular emphasis on improving income distribution and social security systems [46][79][70]. - Investment in new infrastructure, particularly in emerging industries like AI, is expected to become a new growth point, alongside traditional infrastructure projects [57][80][70].

Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the introduction of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the stock market, real estate market, and enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [1][2]. 1. Financial Policy Announcement - On May 7, a press conference was held to introduce a "package of financial policies" to support market stability and expectations, detailing three major types of monetary policy measures and ten specific initiatives [1]. - The central bank's measures include a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rate cuts to alleviate the financial burden on commercial banks, thereby creating room for lower loan rates [1]. 2. Support for Private Economy - The newly introduced Private Economy Promotion Law aims to ensure the legal status of the private economy and emphasizes the importance of promoting its sustainable and high-quality development [2][4]. - The law focuses on fair competition, investment financing, and technological innovation, establishing a solid legal framework for the private sector [4]. 3. Regional Financial Cooperation - The 28th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting discussed global and regional macroeconomic conditions, emphasizing the need for enhanced regional financial cooperation to address uncertainties in the global economy [5][6]. - China expressed its commitment to deepening financial cooperation within the region, supporting multilateral financing models, and promoting stability in the financial markets [5][6]. 4. Macro Policy Adjustments - The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, with a focus on building a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [7][8]. - The government aims to share development opportunities with the Asia-Pacific region while addressing global challenges [7][8]. 5. Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises - The National Financial Supervision Administration released a notice outlining goals for small and micro enterprise financial services, aiming for stable credit growth and improved service quality [9][10]. - The notice emphasizes the importance of maintaining effective credit supply and reducing the comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing [2]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][9]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of 118.3 billion [3][12]. - The current round of exemptions is progressing faster than the previous phase, with 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024 already included in the exemption list [3][14]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with rubber and plastics showing exemption rates of 62.9% and 62.2% respectively [4][19]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a direct correlation observed between high tariff rates and significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][24]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply-demand mismatches in the US industry, particularly in sectors where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][29]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - The article proposes a five-dimensional framework to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries with strong supply chain ties to China [6][36]. - Industries such as machinery, rubber plastics, and electrical equipment are highlighted as having significant difficulty in decoupling from Chinese supply chains [6][38]. - The analysis identifies nine sectors with irreplaceable products, including computer communication electronics and rubber plastic manufacturing [6][36]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on China, such as rubber plastics and chemical products, indicate a persistent irreplaceability [7][43]. - High markup industries, including electric vehicles and consumer electronics, maintain strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures, with some products showing price premiums of 1.5 to 2.4 times in the US market [7][50]. - Industries reliant on Chinese supply chains, such as textiles and consumer electronics, exhibit lower cost rates compared to the manufacturing average, reinforcing their dependency on Chinese imports [7][53].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial production remains stable, with marginal improvements in infrastructure construction and a significant increase in human mobility [1][4][25]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate shows resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [1][4]. - The chemical chain production has improved, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [1][9]. - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 11.3 percentage points to -17.9% [1][9]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to -5% and 3.8% to -6.3% respectively [1][15]. - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up 7% to 2% [1][22]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Port cargo throughput has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points to 4.2% [1][26]. - The migration index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 50.5 percentage points to 51.4% [1][29]. - New housing transactions have increased by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8%, with all city tiers showing recovery [1][25]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][36]. - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.4% [2][41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," represents a strategic move by the US to maintain tariffs while adjusting its trade negotiation tactics, focusing on political gains for the Trump administration [1][2][57]. - The US retains a 10% baseline tariff on the UK while reducing tariffs on automotive and steel products, and the UK has agreed to increase agricultural imports from the US and purchase Boeing aircraft worth $10 billion [1][6][57]. - The agreement is seen as a framework document without legal binding, reflecting the special ally status of the UK and the relatively limited economic significance of the trade relationship [1][12][57]. Group 2 - The US trade negotiation strategy has shifted to prioritize political achievements for Trump, with a focus on increasing tariff revenues, as evidenced by Trump's declining approval ratings [2][15][57]. - The US has softened its hawkish stance in trade negotiations, avoiding complex issues like digital service taxes and drug trade, and instead focusing on agriculture and automotive sectors [2][15][58]. - The US is actively pursuing trade negotiations with 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a particular emphasis on smaller economies to quickly secure agreements [3][21][59]. Group 3 - Key contradictions in trade negotiations with the EU center around digital service taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [3][24][59]. - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with Japan's agricultural policies being a significant barrier to concessions [3][30][59]. - The article suggests that future trade conflicts may evolve through issue segmentation, leading to localized agreements rather than comprehensive ones, especially with smaller economies [4][37][60]. Group 4 - The likelihood of achieving comprehensive agreements with core economies in the short term is low, and a phased approach focusing on localized agreements is deemed more realistic [4][60]. - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, suggesting a cautious approach to future negotiations [4][49][60].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 陈达飞 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 热点思考：金 融压力或 是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 一、滞胀环境下，美联储如何平衡"双重使命"？ 金融压力或为主要矛盾周 关税冲击下，滞胀是美联储决策的"难题"。 关税的经济效应为"滞胀"。制造业PMI、短期通胀预期等指 标已表明，滞胀风险渐行渐近。"双重使命"的平衡导致美联储左右为难。5月FOMC例会表明，美联储或 将选择"事后反应"的立场，而非"事前防范"。 滞胀环境下，金融压力或成为美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾： 1）胀的风险或超过滞的压力；2）金融压力上 行或强化经济下行风险、弱化通胀上行风险；3）综合而言，由于关税引发的通胀是"临时的"，美联储或 在"风险平衡"的考虑之后，更加关注经济下行风险。 二、"双重使命"之外，金融压力如何影响美联储的"决策"？加剧经济压力，促使联储转鸽 当金融压力持续且显著上行时，美联储或考虑政策对冲。 金融压力可综合衡量融资条件、违约风险或风 险偏好。一方面，金融压力上行本就隐含了经济下行的预期；另一方面，在"金融加速器"机制之下，金 融压力上行或进一步加剧经济下行压力，比如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of stagflation due to tariffs and the divided market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of financial market conditions in the Fed's decision-making process in 2025 [3][51]. Group 1: Overseas Major Assets & Events - The overseas asset performance showed divergence, with a significant rebound in oil prices. WTI crude oil increased by 4.7% to $61.0 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 3.1% to $3,326.3 per ounce [4][26][29]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.5%, with mixed performances across developed market indices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.37% [4][13]. - The U.S. and the UK reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. maintaining a 10% tariff on UK imports while reducing tariffs on UK automobiles for the first 100,000 units [4][33]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The May FOMC meeting highlighted a "wait-and-see" approach, acknowledging the uncertainty in economic prospects and the rising risks of higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at [4.25%-4.50%] [39][41]. - Fed officials expressed that the current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate adjustments to interest rates, emphasizing the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy [41][39]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 were reported at 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a robust labor market [45]. - Germany's industrial production in March increased by 3% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 1%, driven by strong performances in pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles [43][44].