Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 深度专题 热 点 思 考 1 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 热点思考 2025.4.28 1 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 深度专题 2025.5.7 4月中央政治局会议提出"设立服务消费与养老再贷款"，促消费工具箱再"上新"。提振消费的"关键"何在，后续 还有哪些期待？ 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 5月09日，央行发布2025年一季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 央行对外部环境关注度显著提高，《报告》指出"当前外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易 保护主义抬头，地缘冲突持续存在"。 2024年四季度报告对应表述是"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 加深"。两次相比较，本次更加突出了外部环境的不利影响，显示出央行密切关注美国单边贸易保护主义 对我国经济的扰动。 央行肯定一季度经济表现，并强调要"要坚定发展信心，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确 定性"。 2024年四季度报告认为"国内需求不足、风险隐患仍然较多等困难挑战也还存在"，而本次报告则 认为"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。针对下一阶段，央行强调我国具备诸多优势条 件，经济长期向好的基本趋势没有改变。 政策基调：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，降低银行负债成本。 总基调方面，《报告》提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强 事件： 5月9日，海关公布4月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比8.1%、预期0.6%、前值12.4%；进口 （美元计价）同比-0.2%、预期-6.9%、前值-4.3%。 核心观点：领先指标显示，5月"抢出口"或将继续。 4月出口同比回落主因春节错位扰动消退，春节调整后同比明显回升。 4月出口同比（美元计价）较3月 回落4.3pct至8.1%，更多受春节错位扰动消退的影响。经测算，春节错月因素拖累4月出口增速6.7pct。春 节调整后，4月出口同比较3月回升4.0pct至8.1%。 4月出口偏强主因"抢出口"，包括通过新兴经济体"转出口"与通过加墨"转运"，"4月生产-下旬出港-5月中 旬美国到港"的抢出口数据链条均在改善。 从国别数据看，4月对东盟（+17.6pct到21.0%）、对韩国 （+8.1pct至-0.1%）等出口增速均明显上升。从中观指标看，4月制造业PMI生产指数仍维持49.8%的较高 水平。4月中下旬港口外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent press conference held by the State Council Information Office on May 7, 2025, which introduced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations. The focus is on the implementation of monetary policies and measures to support various sectors, including real estate, capital markets, and private enterprises [1][10]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank introduced three types of monetary policy measures: quantity-based policies, price-based policies, and structural policies. Quantity-based policies include reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to increase long-term liquidity supply. Price-based policies involve lowering policy interest rates and structural monetary policy tool rates, including public housing loan rates. Structural policies aim to improve existing tools and create new ones to support innovation, consumption, and inclusive finance [2][11]. - A comprehensive RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [7]. - The central bank also lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, which is projected to save banks approximately 150-200 million yuan annually in funding costs [4][12]. Financial Support for Real Estate and Capital Markets - The Financial Regulatory Bureau announced eight incremental policies to support real estate, capital markets, and private enterprises. These include accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models and expanding the scope of long-term investment trials for insurance funds [3][11]. - The demand side of the real estate market will benefit from a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which is expected to save residents over 200 million yuan in interest payments annually [6][15]. Support for Private Enterprises and Innovation - The conference emphasized strong financial support for private enterprises and technological innovation. The central bank plans to use tools like innovation re-loans to increase credit support for private enterprises in technology sectors [5][14]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau proposed a comprehensive policy package to support private enterprise financing and provide precise financial services to entities significantly affected by tariffs [3][14]. Market Stability Initiatives - The policies aim to stabilize and activate capital markets through various measures, including enhancing the collaboration between the central bank and the China Investment Corporation to support stock market index funds and providing sufficient re-loan support [5][14]. - The introduction of a new merger and acquisition loan management approach is intended to facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading [8][14]. Overall Economic Context - The recent monetary policy actions are seen as a response to the stable performance of the real estate and stock markets, with the economy showing resilience, as indicated by a 5.4% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter [12][13].

申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 政策跟踪 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 等 申万宏源宏观 . 2. 政策跟踪： 加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地 2.1 中央政治局会议："坚定不移办好自己的事" 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议对外部风险高度警惕，对 内强调"办好自己的事"，并将"稳就业"放在更加突出位置。针对当前国际形势，政治局会议将其上升为"国 际经贸斗争"，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部高度不确定性环境下，会议更加关注内部的高质量发展， 强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。 未来，政策的灵活性和超常规性将兼备，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。因当前美国政策的高度不确定性，我国经济表现的可预测性也有所下降。再结合政治局会 议"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"的表述，预计后续政策高度关注经济数据的边际变化，在数据波动加大 的时间段再度加码，保证经济增长的稳定性。 政治局会 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 一问："促消费"政策历史回顾？全国促消费针对大宗商品，地方以消费券为主，政策效果显著。 稳增长压力较大、外需承压时期，扩内需、促消费通常成为政策重要着力点。 我国促消费政策，或可分 为直接财政补贴，例如下乡补贴、以旧换新补贴、消费券等；间接支持政策，典型如汽车购置税减免、 假期高速公路通行费减免等。中央财政补贴的全国促消费力度更大、重点针对汽车和家电等大宗消费， 地方促消费以消费券为主、支持领域更多元。 首轮"下乡"政策效果显著，既与央地财政补贴有关，也得益于基础设施完善及长期制度改革。 2007-2012 年，央地累计投入补贴资金765亿元用于家电、汽车"下乡"。除补贴外，"户户通电"和无电户通电工程为 推行家电下乡奠定电力设施基础。同时2006年全面取消农业税后，农民一年减负约1250亿元；后续"四万 亿"计划亦为农民工"增收"，2010-2011年农民工人均收入 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," which have exceeded market expectations, leading to substantial volatility in financial markets. The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27%, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2% [1][6][20] - The economic effects of tariffs are characterized by "stagflation," with debates surrounding the relative strength of stagnation versus inflation. Tariffs are expected to peak in their impact on inflation and economic growth within 3-4 quarters, with early inflation rates rising more steeply [2][20][74] - The article highlights that if tariff levels remain unchanged, the probability of a U.S. economic recession may significantly increase, with a potential shift from "stagflation" to "recession" starting in the third quarter of the year [20][74] Group 2 - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit tightening, and subsequent economic downturns. The current economic structure does not align with historical recession patterns, as private capital expenditure has not shown significant contraction [3][25][34] - The labor market and consumer spending are crucial to the U.S. economy, with rising unemployment rates being a necessary condition for recession. However, without external shocks, increases in unemployment may be temporary [4][44][32] Group 3 - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. financial markets have experienced significant turmoil, with notable pressure on liquidity. The refinancing pressures in the short term are a primary concern, but the transmission from liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressure remains manageable [5][49][50] - The article emphasizes that while short-term systemic risks in the U.S. financial market should not be overstated, long-term risks related to the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve should be monitored [49][74]

摘要 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 王茂宇 高级宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 陈达飞 耿佩璇 本文主要是对数据和事件的整理，不涉及观点更新。文中所涉及评论均为历史报告观点的重申。 五一假期期间，海外风险资产多有修复，供给冲击导致油价大跌；美日第二轮谈判未取得重大突破，美 国经济内需仍有韧性；国内出行人流保持高位，跨境游、县域游热度攀升。 一、全球大类资产：五一假期前后，海外风险资产多有修复，但供给冲击下油价大跌 五一假期前后（4月28日-5月2日），海外主要股指多数上涨。 美国三大股指延续反弹，标普500、纳指和 道指分别上涨2.9%、3.4%和3.0%。亚洲市场，恒生指数上涨2.4%，日经225、韩国综合指数分别上涨 3.2%、0.5%。欧洲方面，德国DAX大涨3.8%。 美债收益率小幅反弹，美元指数微涨。 债市方面，10Y美债收益率上行4.0bp至4.33%，10 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 耿佩璇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口 ...