第二， 关税临时扰动和内需建筑需求仍偏弱是主要背景。（ 1 ）量价均有一定拖累， 4 月规上工业企业增 加值同比较 3 月放缓 1.6 个点， PPI 同比较 3 月降幅扩大 0.2 个点。（ 2 ）工业增加值为何放缓？一个 线索是出口交货值同比较 3 月回落 6.8 个点，即关税扰动或是主因之一。（ 3 ）价格端 PPI 同比在 3-4 月连续回调，其中国内定价的煤炭和钢铁、全球定价的原油链对价格均有较明显拖累，前者或受建筑业需求偏 弱影响；后者或受关税影响。 广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月规上工业企业营收增速较前值小幅放缓。 1-4 月规上工业企业营收累计同比增长 3.2% ，略低 于前值的 3.4% ；推算营收单月同比增速为 2.6% ，低于 1-2 月同比的 2.8% 和 3 月的 4.2% 。 第三， 利润表现和营收不同， 4 月属于连续第二个月小幅改善。 4 月规上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0% ， 高于 3 月的 2.6% ，以及 1-2 月的 -0.3% 。从"量、价、利润率"三因素拆解看，主要是营收利润率同比 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。从这一指标可以理解"924"以来的经济节奏：2024年10-11月，政策初步见效，微观状况连续好 转；2024年12月，地方集中化债，经济景气度有所回踩；2025年1-3月，民营企业家座谈会叠加Deep Seek重大突破，微观景气度第二轮上行；4月，关税扰动 下经济再度出现回踩；5月，一揽子金融政策叠加关税缓和，经济再度企稳。从万得全A指数观测，股票市场基本上是相似的节奏，可见市场定价的有效性。 第二， 和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主 要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 第三， 融资环境改善应主要与5月初一揽子金融政策有关，包括货币政策一端"降准+降息+结构性工具扩容"，以及金融政策一端确保外贸企业"应贷尽贷、应续尽 续"；同时中美日内瓦联合声明后，外需产业链的基本面和信用状况也有所改善。BCI融资环境指数环比上行1.1个点，估计5月信贷情况会好于4月。从大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 美东时间 5 月 16 日 ， 美国众议院预算委员会 否决了共和党预算协调法案草案（ House Reconciliation Bill ）。该委员会以 21 票对 16 票否决了该 法案，保守派共和党人要求对法案进行修改。 5 月 21 日 ，美国众议院共和党人对税收与支出法案进行了最后修改，众议院预算委员会通过"大而美"（ big and beautiful bill ）法案，该法案将进入众议院全体会议审议程序。 第二， 什么是预算协调程序（ Budget Reconciliation Process ）？预算协调程序是一种"快速通道"预算程序 ，旨在让国会能够用"简单多数"在参议院通过影 响赤字和债务的立法，而无需通常的 60 票门槛。预算和解程序通常需要通过 6 个步骤：通过预算决议（ budget resolution ）、委员会审议并修改（ committee markups and floor vote ）、议事规则审查（ Byrd 规则）、两院协商统一文本；两院最终投票、总统签署法案生效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and debt levels [1][8][9]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - On May 21, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.09%, and the 10-year yield increased to 4.59%, marking significant rebounds from previous values [1][7]. - The 30-year yield is at its second-highest level since 2007, indicating a notable shift in market sentiment [1][7]. Group 2: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing rising federal debt and interest payments as a percentage of GDP compared to similarly rated sovereigns [8][9]. - The downgrade reflects concerns over the U.S. government's ability to manage its fiscal policy effectively, especially in light of ongoing discussions about a significant fiscal expansion bill [2][11]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The proposed "big beautiful bill" is expected to increase federal debt by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, with potential increases to $5.1 trillion if temporary provisions are made permanent [2][12]. - The bill's large tax cuts could lead to a projected fiscal deficit rate of 7% by 2026, raising further concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][12]. Group 4: Historical Context of Rating Changes - Historical analysis shows that credit rating downgrades do not always lead to rising Treasury yields, particularly in periods of economic weakness and monetary easing [2][14]. - In contrast, during periods of high growth and inflation, the safe-haven appeal of Treasuries diminishes, leading to increased yields [3][14]. Group 5: Economic Growth and Debt Dynamics - The U.S. government maintains that GDP growth will outpace debt growth, with current average interest rates on existing debt at approximately 3.3% and nominal GDP growth rates above 5% [5][20]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and IMF estimate that the fiscal multiplier from the proposed tax cuts could range from $75 billion to $225 billion annually, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.3% to 0.8% [21][24]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Global Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields may increase the opportunity cost for overseas equity markets, leading to a shift in global asset pricing dynamics [26]. - The recent increase in yields has coincided with a decline in the U.S. dollar index, suggesting capital outflows from dollar-denominated assets [26].

报告摘要 第一， 4 月狭义财政收支仍然分化，但趋势有所弥合，主要源自税收收入的改善。 4 月一般公共预算收入同比增速上行至 1.9% ，其中税收收入同比显著提升 4.1 个百分点至 1.9% ，为今年以来首次由负转正，与同期经济表现相吻合。不过今年前 4 个月税收累计同比为 -2.1% ，降幅较一季度缩窄但尚未转正；其中企业所得 税累计同比为 -3.1% ，低 PPI 是拖累因素之一。 广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第二， 支出方面呈更加积极的特征，受普通国债发行前置和税收好转的带动，狭义财政支出增速进一步走高， 4 月当月同比 5.8% ， 1-4 月累计同比 4.6% ，已超 全年支出目标增速 4.4% ； 1-4 月狭义财政支出进度 31.5% ，为近年来仅次于 2019 年的次高水平。从 4 月当月主要带动项来看，有稳定微观主体的支出，比如社 保就业、教育等；也有主动形成投资、带动增长动能的支出，比如交通运输。 第三， 再广义财政收入端， 4 月政府性基金收入增速也是今年以来首次同比由负转正。从土地高频数据来看这一情况属于预期之中。 1- ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are aimed at addressing the high real interest rates that are constraining economic growth and consumer spending [1][2][3] Group 1: LPR and Deposit Rate Adjustments - On May 20, the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [1][2] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also lowered deposit rates, with the rates for demand deposits, 1-year fixed deposits, and 3-year fixed deposits reduced to 0.05%, 0.95%, and 1.25%, respectively [1][2] - The adjustments are part of a broader financial policy initiative that was anticipated in the market, reflecting a transmission mechanism linking policy rates to LPR and deposit rates [2][9] Group 2: Economic Implications - High real interest rates are identified as a significant barrier to economic growth, increasing debt pressure and limiting investment and consumption [1][3] - The reduction in nominal interest rates, through both LPR and deposit rate cuts, is expected to balance asset-liability sheets and stimulate microeconomic activity [1][3] - The adjustments are seen as a necessary step to enhance the overall demand in the economy and support growth [9] Group 3: Changes in Rate Adjustment Patterns - The recent LPR adjustments indicate a shift in the approach to rate cuts, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR being reduced simultaneously, a departure from previous practices where they were adjusted separately [10][11] - This change is attributed to a broader growth stabilization strategy that encompasses various sectors beyond real estate, including manufacturing and consumer spending [11][12] Group 4: Deposit Rate Dynamics - The reduction in fixed deposit rates is more pronounced than that of demand deposit rates, leading to a flatter deposit rate curve [12][13] - This strategy aims to alleviate the trend of deposit termization and reduce banks' funding costs, thereby enhancing their lending capacity [12][13] - The overall decline in deposit rates is intended to stabilize interest margins and encourage banks to increase credit supply to the real economy [13][14] Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The current monetary policy adjustments are seen as a foundational step, with further fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures anticipated to support consumption, trade, and technological advancements [15][16] - The government aims to enhance income for low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to drive economic growth [15][16] - Ongoing efforts to optimize supply-side policies and address competitive pressures in various sectors are also highlighted as critical for future economic stability [16]

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 4月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、出口、社零、投资、地产销售）同比均不同程度低于前值，当时 外部关税骤然上升的背景下，经济较3月有所放缓。但同时各指标仍呈现较明显韧性，按工业与服务业、工业 与社零模拟的实际GDP同比分别为5.45%、5.44%，低于3月，和一季度仍大致相当。 第二， 工业增加值同比6.1%。关于工业表现，有几个细节：（1）出口交货值4月同比0.9%，较前值的 7.7%明显下行，关税还是带来了工业端的明显扰动。出口交货值弱于出口，证明企业当期审慎生产，倾向于 消化库存；（2）私营企业工业增加值同比6.7%，相对最高；国有企业、外资企业增速较低，我们理解与本 轮政策红利比如信贷等对民企的倾斜有关，与今年需求端消费、出口相对于投资更活跃亦有一定关系；（3） 产销率同比-0.2%，较前值的-0.1%仅小幅下行，和2018年5-6月同比显著转负对照，企业已有更多经验安 排生产、应对外需变化。 第三， 在去年底报告《引导供需比优化：2025年中观环境展望》中，我们参考投入产出表尝试了一种粗略的 估算方法，即以40%*固定资产投资同 ...

对权益资产来说，4月以来市场在一次性风险计提之后，基于逆周期政策"对冲"和贸易环境"冲回"两大逻辑，已逐步定价了基本面的"下限抬高"。下一阶段的关键 在于能否进一步推动内需短板领域的积极变化，以进一步打开"上限"。 广发宏观周度述评（第14期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-13期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 下限已经抬高，上限尚待打开。 5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双边关税出现较大幅度下调，中美贸易短期内排除了极端情形。值得注意的 是，关税下调落地后，海外进口商在90天确定性较高的窗口期内有一定程度"抢进口"的迹象，部分航线一舱难求再现[1]。我们估计短期内出口仍不会差。 经济年初以来的拉动因素主要集中在出口和"两新"，一季度出口交货值同比达6.7%，是经济的支点之一；设备工器具投资、家电销售季度增速分别达19.0%、 19.3%，在投资、消费端形成另外两个支点。 出口短期下行风险排除后，这三个支点依旧成立，经济的下限假设将较前期加税时的审慎预期有所上修。 但值得注意的是，"924"以来本轮稳增长政策的逻辑起点本来就不是关税，而是名义增长中枢问题。目前经济的四个短板领域仍是地产、消费、地方投资、物价。 ...