广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 我们先复盘 2025 年中国资产表现与中观基本面的关系。 2025 年全年万得全 A 指数上涨 27.6% ；超额收益较高的行业集中在有色、电子、通信、电力 设备、机械设备、国防军工、基础化工。究其背后，一方面沿着"全球流行叙事"做选择，贵金属、有色金属、 AI 产业链表现亮眼；另一方面，定价亦大体沿着行 业"温差"做选择。以规上工业企业利润表现看，"高端制造 + 关联原材料"景气占优，利润增速领跑的行业是有色、计算机通信电子、交运设备、公用事业等，其 中前三大类行业权益资产均有显著的正收益。 第二， 行业盈利的"温差"又是怎么来的？复盘 2025 年需求端"三驾马车"各自表现：一是消费端，增速较快的消费品类主要有三类：受益于商品"以旧换新"政策 红利的耐用品（通讯器材、家电、家具、文化办公用品、体育娱乐用品）、受贵金属价格影响的金银珠宝类、可能和餐饮存在一定替代关系的粮油食品类；二是出 口端，机电产品和高新技术产品出口同比分别以 8.4% 和 7.5% 的增长领先整体出口，风力发电机组、船舶、飞机、汽车 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the inflation landscape for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index showing a decline of -1.2% year-on-year in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and a slight recovery to -1.0% in Q3 [1][11] - The article highlights that the manufacturing investment, as a representative of productive capital expenditure, has seen a decline, leading to a gradual easing of supply-demand pressure [1][11] - Key price increase signals have emerged in sectors such as storage, non-ferrous metals, and phosphorous chemicals, indicating a potential recovery in prices [1][12] Group 2 - For 2026, the article discusses the technical detail of the base period rotation for the PPI, which will be based on 2025, with updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments reflecting the latest industrial revenue proportions [2][14] - The macro logic for 2026 includes a likely recovery from the low investment gap in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, stabilization of the real estate market, and a narrowing consumption gap, all of which are expected to positively influence prices [2][17] - The financial logic indicates that leading indicators such as M1 suggest a continuation of price recovery for domestic industrial products, with global liquidity conditions remaining supportive [2][20] Group 3 - The article identifies four key industrial factors influencing prices for 2026, including the pig cycle, the easing of capacity pressure in key industries, the cumulative effects of anti-involution policies, and the profit cycle indicating limited expansion in manufacturing investment [3][23] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline is significant, with eight key industries accounting for 88% of the cumulative impact, particularly in automotive, electrical machinery, and computer communication electronics [3][26] - The article emphasizes the importance of upstream commodities, such as coal, steel, copper, and oil, in analyzing PPI, noting that price volatility in these commodities can significantly affect PPI contributions [4][30] Group 4 - The article outlines five key signals regarding CPI for 2026, including favorable base effects, the impact of core goods and services, and the expected recovery in medical service prices due to aging population needs [5][34] - The potential influence of gold prices on CPI is discussed, with projections indicating a reduced contribution compared to the previous year, reflecting a high base effect [5][37] - Housing prices are highlighted as a critical variable, with expectations for stabilization in the second half of 2026, influenced by policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][39] Group 5 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the year indicates a moderate recovery in both PPI and CPI, with CPI expected to rise to a peak in Q1 before stabilizing in subsequent quarters [7][43] - The baseline scenario predicts average CPI and PPI values of 0.8% and -0.6% respectively, with variations in conservative and optimistic scenarios also presented [7][44] - Structural price increase signals for 2026 include the impact of anti-involution policies, new energy industries, and the aging population's influence on service prices [8][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) for January 2026 increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, indicating stable mid-level economic conditions with three out of seven sub-industries in the expansion zone, consistent with seasonal trends observed in previous years [1][5][6]. Sub-item Summaries - **Production and Demand Indicators**: In January, production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively. The production-to-demand ratio has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting positive demand expectations among emerging enterprises [2][10]. - **Price Signals**: Purchase prices and sales prices increased by 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively. The sales price index has been on an upward trend since July 2025, with only a brief decline in November 2025 [2][11]. - **Loan Difficulty Indicator**: The loan difficulty index rose by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January [2][11]. Industry Analysis - **Leading Industries**: The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors have maintained high levels of prosperity since October 2025. The biotechnology sector is driven by a surge in patent applications, while the new energy vehicle sector benefits from both domestic and export growth [3][13]. - **Weak Industries**: High-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and energy conservation sectors have shown weaker performance, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months [3][13]. Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Historical data suggests that the manufacturing PMI typically experiences slight declines in January during years with late Spring Festival dates. The impact of strong exports and concentrated fiscal policies in the previous quarter on January's production preparations remains to be observed [4][17]. Economic Data Overview - The high-frequency data for January appears stable, with strong port data and weak construction and real estate data. Hard data is expected to show decent year-on-year performance due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with results to be published in March [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2025, projecting a real GDP growth of 5.0%, which aligns with the government's growth target and indicates a stable economic performance over three consecutive years with growth not falling below 5% [1][8]. Economic Growth and GDP - The projected real GDP for 2025 is approximately 140.2 trillion yuan, translating to a per capita GDP of about 13970 USD, nearing the World Bank's high-income threshold [10][11]. - The World Bank forecasts a global GDP growth of 2.7% for 2025, with developed economies and developing countries (excluding China) expected to grow at 1.7% and 3.7% respectively [1][8]. Disposable Income and Consumption - Resident per capita disposable income is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, slightly lower than the growth rates of 2023 and 2024, but still surpassing nominal GDP growth [2][14]. - The median growth rate of disposable income is projected at 4.4%, marking the lowest since 2021, influenced by a decline in net property income growth to 1.6% [2][14][15]. Sectoral Growth - Key sectors projected to experience significant growth in 2025 include: - Railways, shipping, and aerospace (14.0%) - Automotive (11.5%) - Computer and electronics (10.6%) - Black metal mining (9.7%) - Electrical machinery (9.2%) - General equipment (8.0%) - Chemical industry (7.8%) - Non-ferrous metals (6.8%) [2][17]. Nominal GDP and Economic Drivers - Nominal GDP growth is forecasted at 4.0% for 2025, lower than the previous years' growth rates of 4.9% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024 [3][18]. - Economic drivers show an imbalance, with nominal growth in the secondary industry at only 1.9%, while exports are expected to grow by 5.5% and per capita consumption by 4.4% [3][20]. Industrial Capacity Utilization - Industrial capacity utilization is projected to improve gradually in the second half of 2025, with an annual average of 74.4%, still below the 75.0% level of 2024 [3][22][23]. Population Trends - The population growth rate is expected to remain negative, with a birth rate of 7.92 million in 2025, down from 9.54 million, and a natural growth rate of -2.41‰ [4][24][25]. - The proportion of the population aged 60 and above is projected to reach 23.0%, indicating ongoing trends of aging and declining birth rates [4][27]. Monthly Economic Indicators - In December, key economic indicators showed mixed results, with industrial value-added and service production indices accelerating, while retail sales and investment slowed down [4][29]. - December's industrial output growth was 5.2%, with notable increases in high-tech industries, while retail sales remained weak, particularly in categories like automobiles and home appliances [4][30][32]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continued to show weakness in December, with a significant decline in real estate investment by 36.3% year-on-year [4][34][38]. - The government appears to be concentrating investment projects towards early 2026, reflecting a strategic shift in response to current economic conditions [4][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries in China, highlighting the impact of the Lunar New Year timing on production and sales, as well as the mixed performance across different sectors. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 8.5% in December [1][6] - The industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with steel production rates improving while chemical production rates decline. The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces rose by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The average daily crude steel production from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year as of January 10 [2][9] Group 2: Construction and Funding - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a lack of momentum in physical work [11] - The asphalt operating rate fell to 26.3%, down 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a decline in construction activity [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 15.8% year-on-year due to the Lunar New Year timing, indicating a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales showed a significant decline, with a 38.6% drop in daily average transactions in major cities compared to the same period last year [15] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale volumes down by 40% [16] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry manager index decreased to 133.0 points, reflecting a slight decline in industry sentiment [13] - The BPI index for industrial products reached a near one-year high, with significant price increases in coal and chemical products [22][23] - Port container throughput increased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience in logistics despite fluctuations in shipping volumes to the U.S. [18][20]

广发宏观周度述评（第48期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-47期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一，技术进步两阶段的宏观效应。 在报告《新一轮技术变革的宏观分析框架》中，我们曾介绍过佩蕾丝 的"技术-经济范式"框架。按照这一框架，每一轮技术革命可进一步划分为"导入期"（Installation Period） 和"展开期"（Deployment Period）。在"导入期"阶段主要是技术的基础设施建设，技术的窄应用和商业模式 的探索；在"展开期"阶段主要是技术的宽应用，新的行业和产业形成，以及劳动生产率的提升。对于第一个阶 段来说，由于技术尚未大规模应用，但长期前景明朗、产业预期已经升温的背景下，往往会阶段性存在资产泡 沫；而关键要素成本的下降是量变催生质变的标志，它会带来通用技术的扩散，以及"展开期"阶段的到来。 从本轮人工智能、具身智能等代表性技术的基本特征来看，目前比较典型地处于"导入期"阶段，比如芯片仍处 于相对稀缺、产业上游仍处于高盈利的状态。 这里想要进一步探讨的是两阶段的宏观效应，即外生技术周期对于宏观面的影响： 在"导入期"，总量压力往往会阶段性有所上升，新旧产业分化逻辑上亦会有所扩大。一是新技术处于 ...

Group 1 - The monetary policy in 2025 is expected to be moderately loose, with lower rates of cuts compared to 2023-2024, primarily focused in the second quarter due to external shocks and a combination of resilient exports, proactive fiscal policy, and industrial highlights enhancing growth resilience [1][11][12] - Structural tools have formed a framework to support key areas such as consumption and real estate, with a focus on optimization in 2026, including streamlining the number of tools and expanding counterparties to include non-bank institutions [15][16] - The policy framework is shifting towards interest rate regulation, with a focus on narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, which currently has a width exceeding 200 basis points [2][18][19] Group 2 - Narrowing the interest rate corridor is expected to stabilize liquidity expectations and reduce short-term interest rate volatility, which is crucial for improving the interest rate transmission mechanism [20][21] - The narrow liquidity in 2025 is projected to gradually loosen after the first quarter, with potential tightening risks due to credit exceeding acceptable levels and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations [23][24] - The systemic convergence of narrow liquidity fluctuations since 2016 is attributed to increased exchange rate marketization and changes in intermediary targets, leading to a more stable monetary supply [26][27] Group 3 - In 2025, the growth of M1 is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points, driven mainly by fiscal expansion and overseas net income, although the micro-level activation of funds remains limited [32][33] - The growth of M2 is projected to rise by 0.7 percentage points in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and a decrease in bond issuance, but may slow down in 2026 due to uncertainties in the banking sector [42][43] - The total amount of remaining liquidity is expected to increase by approximately 0.7 trillion yuan in 2025, primarily flowing into private equity funds and fixed-income assets, but significant expansion in 2026 is unlikely [45][48][49]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第三， 12 月政府债融资为 6833 亿元，同比少增 1.1 万亿元； 2025 年全年政府债融资为 13.8 万亿元，同比 多增 2.5 万亿元， 2026 年在积极财政定调下预计会继续多增，对社融形成支撑。企业债融资增加 1541 亿 元，同比多增 1700 亿元，与 2024 年末的低基数、企业部门融资需求修复以及政策支持科创债发行等因素有 关； 2025 年全年企业债融资 2.4 万亿元，同比多增约 5000 亿元。 2026 年企业债券融资仍有两个支撑，规 模不会太低：一是 2026 年大量定存到期，存款可能会有部分转向理财等资管产品，信用债的配置力量不会太 弱；二是表内信贷利率在银行反内卷、稳息差逻辑下较难显著下行，企业发债融资依然会有较明显的成本优 势。 第一， 2025 年 12 月社融增加 2.2 万亿元 ，高于 WIND 统计的市场平均预期（剔除极值为 1.9 万亿元）， 同比少增 6457 亿元；社融存量增速为 8.3% ，较上月下降 0.2pct ，较 2024 年末提高 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of Chinese manufacturing in the global market, with exports showing a significant growth of 6.6% year-on-year in December 2025, surpassing market expectations. The overall annual export growth for 2025 is projected at 5.5% [1][5][10]. Group 1: Export Performance - December 2025 exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market average expectation of 2.2% [1][5]. - Monthly exports in December showed a month-on-month increase of 8.4%, well above the five-year average of 4.7%, contributing to an annual growth rate of 5.5% [1][5]. - Exports to Hong Kong in December contributed marginally, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. Excluding Hong Kong, the year-on-year export growth was 4.4% [9]. Group 2: Economic Contributions - For 2025, exports and "two new" investments (equipment and tools) are key drivers of the economy, with the latter showing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in the first eleven months, partially offsetting declines in investment and real estate [2][10]. - The export growth in 2025 is characterized by a shift towards high-end manufacturing products, with high-end products like automobiles and integrated circuits showing significant growth [3][14]. Group 3: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the US accounted for 11.1% of total exports, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from 2024. In contrast, combined exports to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, and India rose to 35.1%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [2][11]. - The combined export share to the four southern regions has surpassed that to the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea, indicating a strategic shift in trade relationships [11]. Group 4: Product Composition - The share of labor-intensive products in exports decreased to 9.5% in 2025, while high-end manufacturing products increased to 10.6% [3][14]. - Notable growth in non-high-end manufacturing products includes steel billets (120.2% increase), cement (55.9% increase), and fertilizers (61.5% increase) [15]. Group 5: Import Trends - Imports in December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, significantly higher than the trend value, but the annual import growth for 2025 is projected to be zero [4][15]. - The low import growth is attributed to inflation in Europe and the US, which has affected the price competitiveness of consumer goods, and a lack of systematic inventory replenishment in domestic enterprises [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The December 2025 US CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with previous values and expectations, while the month-on-month increase is 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.1% and in line with expectations. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, matching the previous value but lower than the expected 2.7% [1][5][15] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The overall CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by rebounds in food and service prices. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, higher than the previous 0.1% but lower than the expected 0.3% [1][5][15] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices remained flat, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month change of 0%. Notably, used car prices fell significantly by -1.1% month-on-month, which is much lower than the average of 0.5% in October and November, impacting the core CPI by approximately 3 basis points [11][12] - Core service prices rebounded, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, up from an average of 0.1% in October and November, and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Rent was a major contributor, with both OER and primary residence rent increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [2][12][13] Market Reactions - Following the data release, expectations for interest rate cuts remained largely unchanged. The probability of no rate cuts in January, March, and April is high, while the probability of a cut in June is 48.1%, slightly up from 46.2% [3][17] - The US dollar index continued to appreciate slightly, reaching 99.18, while US stock markets saw declines, with the Dow down 0.8% and the S&P 500 down 0.19% [3][17][18] Federal Reserve and Policy Outlook - The divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is a key market focus. The ongoing criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell regarding potential perjury related to the Fed's renovation project raises questions about the independence of monetary policy [4][19]