Core Viewpoint - The January PMI shows a decline of 0.8 points, primarily driven by seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, indicating a divergence between new and old economies [1][5][23]. Industry Analysis - **Consumer Goods**: The automotive sector, electrical machinery (including home appliances), agricultural products, chemical fibers, and textiles have all weakened. Passenger car retail sales from January 1-18 fell by 37% compared to the previous month, influenced by the expiration of tax exemptions and reduced subsidies [2][10]. - **High-Energy Industries**: The petrochemical and chemical sectors experienced a decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January, potentially constraining downstream production [2][10]. - **Metals**: Non-ferrous and ferrous industries saw increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points, respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling [2][10]. - **High-End Manufacturing**: Sectors such as computer communication electronics and specialized equipment improved, with increases of 6.9 and 4.7 points, respectively, driven by surging AI demand and price hikes from chip manufacturers [2][10]. Economic Divergence - The January data indicates a widening gap between new and old economies, with high-tech manufacturing and upstream raw materials showing strong performance, while consumer manufacturing and the petrochemical industry faced significant seasonal declines [5][23]. Construction Industry - The construction sector saw a significant decline of 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal expectations. The drop was attributed to low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with residential construction declining by 3.0 points [4][16][17]. Service Industry - The service sector experienced a slight decrease of 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in a contraction zone for three consecutive months. Financial services maintained high activity levels, while transportation and information services saw declines [21][22]. Summary - Overall, January's economic structure reflects the ongoing divergence between new and old industries, with highlights in high-tech manufacturing and upstream materials. The significant seasonal drop in consumer goods, petrochemicals, and construction sectors may explain the persistence of last year's asset trends [5][23].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 中电联口径截至1月22日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长4.6%（去年12月同比为-8.5%）。 春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在1月底；而今年春节在2月中下旬，1月企业普遍处于正常开工状态。这也预示 着今年1月其他同比经济数据会相对比较有利。 第三， 重点企业粗钢产量环比回升，同比降幅收窄。截至1月20日，全国重点企业粗钢日均产量（月度日均，下同）环比回升 11.3% ， 同 比 回 落 4.5% （ 前 值 -8.8% ） ； 截 至 1 月 30 日 ， 主 要 钢 厂 螺 纹 钢 产 量 环 比 回 升 6.4% ， 同 比 回 升 1.0% （ 前 值-16.4%）；主要钢厂热轧卷板产量月环比回升1.5%，同比回落1.8%（前值-3.9%）。 第四， 实物工作量暂未起势，资金到位率徘徊。截至1月27日，样本工地资金到位率环比回落0.2pct，非房建、房建资金到位 率环比录得-0.4、0.4pct。截至1月28日，石油沥青开工率（月均值，下同）环比回落2.2pct，同 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 1月生意社BPI升至一年来高位。本月格陵兰岛、中东等地缘事件频发，全球地缘政治威胁指数月均值 环比上行66.3%，避险情绪与地缘溢价推动大宗商品价格；月末受风险偏好回摆影响，贵金属价格高位巨 震。截至1月30日，生意社BPI指数录得956点，相较去年12月末环比回升6.3%。其中能源、有色指数（月 环比）分别为1.5%、21.7%。 第二， 1月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现，化工品价格涨幅靠前。就分项而言，环渤海动力煤现货、螺纹、焦 煤、玻璃期货价月环比分别录得1.2%、-2.2%、0.1%、3.0%；化工 产品 指数稳中有升，月环比录得 4.8%；水泥价格有所回落，月环比录得-4.0%。南华综合指数（期末值）环比收涨8.6%，月均值同比录得 8.8%（前值3.0%）。 第三， 上海、深圳二手房价回温，北京、广州房价降幅收窄。截至1月26日（最新数据），北上广深四大一 线城市二手房挂牌价格指数环比录得-0.5%、1.1%、-1.0%、0.4%。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业价格偏强，光伏行业综合指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The January PMI shows a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, while the BCI has increased, indicating a mixed economic outlook influenced by seasonal factors and geopolitical risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: PMI and BCI Analysis - January PMI decreased by 0.8 points for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.4, both below previous values [4][5]. - The BCI rose to 53.7, up 3.9 points from the previous value, suggesting a more favorable business climate despite the PMI decline [5][6]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to heightened global geopolitical risks and rising upstream raw material prices, which have a more significant impact on small and medium-sized enterprises [7][8]. Group 2: Price Indices and Economic Indicators - Both the producer price index (PPI) and purchase price index reached their highest levels since October 2023 and June 2024, respectively, indicating further potential increases in January PPI [10][11][12]. - Brent oil prices increased by 16.2%, while the South China industrial product index and the China chemical product price index rose by 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, reflecting upward pressure on prices [13]. Group 3: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI fell significantly in January, attributed to low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decline of 0.5 points [15][16]. - It is anticipated that infrastructure projects will see increased activity post-Spring Festival in March, which will be a critical variable for assessing the macroeconomic outlook for 2026 [15]. Group 4: Consumer Price Expectations - The BCI data indicates a notable increase in the corporate financing environment index, suggesting a positive start for credit in January [20]. - The consumer price expectations index rose by 9.5 points, significantly higher than the intermediate goods price expectations index, indicating stronger expectations for price increases in consumer goods [20][21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in December 2025 experienced a significant decline of 25.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from December 2024, which saw a 40.4% increase in central fiscal revenue [1][6][9]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Analysis - In December 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 25.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 11.5% and non-tax revenue down by 47.9% [6][7]. - The central general public budget revenue fell by 50.3%, while local general public budget revenue remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [6][7]. - The overall completion rate of the general public budget revenue for 2025 was 98.3%, indicating a satisfactory level despite the decline in December [9][10]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a pattern of being weak in the first half of 2025 but improved in the second half, with an overall annual growth of 0.8%, which was below the initial target of 3.7% [10][11]. - Specific tax categories such as stamp duty and personal income tax saw significant increases, with stamp duty growing by 24.1% and personal income tax by 11.5% [12][13]. - The growth in tax revenue was attributed to factors such as tax incentives, regulatory adjustments, and an active capital market [11][12]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - The fiscal expenditure in 2025 showed a weak trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.0% and a completion rate of 96.8% [16][17]. - The expenditure structure revealed a focus on social security, environmental protection, and health, while infrastructure spending saw negative growth in several areas [12][16]. - The divergence between revenue and expenditure created a fiscal gap of 71,350 billion yuan, which was lower than the initial budget estimate [16][22]. Group 4: Government Fund Budget Overview - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 decreased by 14.7%, with land transfer income significantly impacted [21][22]. - The government fund budget expenditure increased by 11.3%, primarily driven by special bonds and other fiscal instruments [21][22]. - The fiscal gap in the government fund budget was 55,170 billion yuan, indicating a need for adjustments in fiscal policy to stabilize the real estate market [21][22]. Group 5: 2026 Fiscal Outlook - The early fiscal situation for 2026 suggests potential improvements in tax revenue due to rising industrial indices and PPI [23]. - The land market remains weak, with a significant decline in land transfer revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [23]. - The issuance of bonds in early 2026 is expected to align with proactive fiscal policies aimed at stimulating economic activity [23].

广发宏观周度述评（第49期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-48期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一，全球叙事切换：杯弓蛇影还是未雨绸缪 ？ 2025 年全球宏观面有五大核心宏观叙事：美元信用弱化、黄金是新一轮货币体系的定价锚、全球产业链供应链重 塑、人工智能是新一轮产业链的基础设施、有色金属是 AI 时代的原油。这一系列叙事带来贵金属、有色金属、新兴市场、 AI 产业链等资产的领先表现。 2026 年 1 月底，特朗普宣布将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，引发了贵金属的剧烈调整。 我们理解这一反应背后的逻辑是：美国为推动再工业化和 AI 领先而产生大规模财政赤字，这逻辑上一则带来美元信用下降；二则需要美联储通过宽松政策来容纳 债务，即所谓的 " 美联储看跌期权 " （ Fed Put ），于是市场定价对冲美元资产风险（新兴市场）、信用货币受损（贵金属）、新产业和资源品竞争（ AI 产业 链、有色金属）。沃什的政策倾向会让这一链条存在明显的隐忧：市场假设美联储是被动与财政联动，但沃什的理念是货币是货币、财政是财政，货币要有货币纪 律、财政要有财政纪律。沃什主张缩表，不再主动压低收益率来帮助政府廉价借贷，这在逻辑上有助于重塑 ...

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席 的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席 之一"（ he will go down as one of the great Fed chairmen ），且"绝不会让人失望"（ he will never let you down ）。提名仍需参议院银行委员会听证及全体投票确认。 第二， 沃什的履历组合非常多样化，他同时具备华尔街并购、白宫经济政策工作以及美联储危机应对的实操 经验 。他曾在 1995 年 -2002 年担任摩根士丹利执行董事负责并购业务，熟悉华尔街运作机制；在 2002-2006 白宫经济政策特别助理、国家经济委员会执行秘书。在 2006 年至 2011 年担任美联储理事。 在 2008 年全球金融危机期间，他担任美联储与华尔街之间的首席联络人，并且是 G20 代表。 2011 年， 他因反对第二轮量化宽松（ QE2 ）而辞职，认为这种大规模买入债券的行为会 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 正文 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75% ，这 是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基 点。本次议息会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储对后续货币政策路径的表 态；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 2022 年 3 月、 5 月、 6 月、 7 月、 9 月、 11 月、 12 月以及 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月美 联储先后十一次上调基准利率。其中 2022 年 3 月加息幅度为 25bp ， 5 月为 50bp ， 6 月 -11 月每次 加息 75bp ， 12 月为 50bp ， 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月为 25bp ； 6 月为首次暂停加息， 9 月为第二次暂停， 11 月为第三次暂停， 12 月为第四次暂停， 2024 年 1 月为第五次暂停， 3 月为第六 次暂停， 5 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年规上工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1% ，略低于 2024 年的 2.1% ，持平于 2023 年，营收同比连续 3 年在 1%-3% 的低位区间内徘 徊。边际变化看， 12 月单月营收同比下降 3.2% ，连续 3 个月同比为负。从四季度名义 GDP 来看，也是三产企稳、二产放缓。 第二， 利润趋势上好于营收。 2025 年全年规上工业企业利润同比增长 0.6% ， 2022-2024 年同比分别为 -4.0% 、 -2.3% 、 -3.3% ；企业利润同 比结束连续 3 年负增长、实现小幅转正。边际变化看， 12 月利润同比增长 5.3% ，较 10-11 月的同比下降明显改善，也显著好于营收表现。 第三， 利润率趋稳是支撑 2025 年企业盈利同比转正的关键。从"量、价、利润率"三因素看， 2025 年呈现"量强 + 价跌"的特征；利润率是支撑利润同 比转正的关键， 2025 年营收利润率 5.31% ，同比微降 0.03 个点，较 2024 年的同比下降 0.3 个点明显收窄。我们理解 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Focus from the Davos Forum - The primary risk for 2026 is geopolitical economic confrontation, with multilateralism declining and global trade facing severe disruptions [1][3] - Countries are emphasizing the need for greater strategic autonomy in energy, food, critical minerals, finance, and supply chains [4][5] - There is a push for trade diversification, with Canada forming new strategic partnerships and the EU advocating for fair trade agreements [6][7][8] Group 2: Investment in Key Resources and Industries - Governments are likely to increase investments in energy products and critical manufacturing to counter geopolitical risks [9][10] - Germany plans significant investments in renewable energy, AI, and modernized power generation [10] - France and Canada are also focusing on investments in critical innovation areas such as AI, quantum technology, and defense [12][11][13] Group 3: Defense and Security - EU countries need to enhance their defense capabilities to reduce military dependency [14] - Canada aims to double its defense spending by 2030 and participate in European defense procurement [15] Group 4: Global Asset Market Dynamics - Global stock markets are experiencing volatility due to policy uncertainties, with tech stocks showing significant internal differentiation [5] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index has slightly increased, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5] - Commodities like gold and silver are seeing price increases, driven by geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations [6][7] Group 5: Domestic Economic Indicators - China's industrial production is stabilizing, with a projected GDP growth of 4.86% and 4.35% for real and nominal GDP respectively [18] - The construction sector is facing funding challenges, with a decrease in project funding rates [25][26] - The government is implementing policies to enhance fiscal coordination and stimulate domestic demand [34][35] Group 6: Real Estate and Urban Development - The Ministry of Housing has outlined policies for urban renewal and high-quality real estate development, focusing on community construction and public service facilities [28][29][30] - The emphasis is on improving existing housing and ensuring new developments meet quality standards [29][30] Group 7: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index has shown an upward trend, with significant price increases in precious metals and some industrial commodities [31][32] - Agricultural prices are also experiencing seasonal increases, particularly in pork and vegetables [33]