Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continue to rise, with COMEX silver and copper increasing by 18.0% and 6.2% respectively from December 19 to December 26, and annual increases of approximately 172% and 45% [1] - The rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals is supported by a declining dollar cycle, geopolitical changes, and increased demand from new industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][3] - Supply growth is constrained due to geopolitical risks, shrinking mine output, and rising ESG costs [3] Group 2 - The acceleration in silver and copper prices in December is attributed to the U.S. releasing a new critical minerals list, which includes these metals, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - Concerns regarding tariffs under the Trump administration have also influenced copper prices, while limited supply of silver for delivery has added upward pressure on prices [4] - The narrative surrounding precious and non-ferrous metals is expected to continue, with potential risks of asset pricing becoming one-sided [5] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown a strong performance, with technology and non-ferrous sectors leading the way, while the bond market remains stable [6] - The MSCI developed and emerging markets recorded gains of 1.12% and 1.71% respectively, indicating a recovery in emerging markets [6] - The performance of commodities is influenced by low inventory and tight supply, with silver and copper prices breaking previous highs [8] Group 4 - The U.S. GDP data for Q3 indicates a soft landing under the interest rate cut cycle, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations [13][14] - Consumer spending and net exports were significant contributors to GDP growth, while residential and construction investments were a drag [14] - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling further rate cuts, although there is a divergence in opinions regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [15][16] Group 5 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with infrastructure projects and traditional industries expected to see a market space increase of 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [25][26] - The focus on optimizing traditional industries includes supply-side structural reforms and enhancing product quality [26][27] - New industries such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries are being prioritized for innovation and market regulation [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the revenue and profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.3% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively, marking two consecutive months of negative growth. This has led to a slowdown in cumulative revenue growth to 1.6% and profit growth to 0.1% for 2025. Although the overall profit growth for this year is expected to improve compared to 2022-2024, the pace remains insufficient, and marginal pressures are increasing in the fourth quarter [1][7]. Revenue and Profit Breakdown - The "volume" aspect shows that the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to October's 4.9% [2][13] - The "price" aspect indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month at 0.1% and decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than October [2][14] - The revenue profit margin for January to November was 5.29%, down by 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, significantly impacting the profit decline compared to revenue [2][13] - Costs remained relatively stable, but expenses increased, with expenses per 100 yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.06 yuan year-on-year, indicating higher expenses in November compared to previous months [2][13] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.4 days by the end of November, up by 3.7 days year-on-year, prompting the central economic work conference to emphasize the need to expedite the clearance of overdue accounts [2][13] Industry Performance - Manufacturing and public utility profits have slowed for two consecutive months, with significant declines in consumer goods manufacturing profits, aligning with the record low in retail sales in November [3][17] - The cumulative growth rate of public utility profits fell from 9.5% to 8.4%, with November profits for electricity and water supply dropping by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, likely due to rising coal prices [3][17] - In the first eleven months, the mining, manufacturing, and public utility sectors saw year-on-year growth rates of -27.2%, 5%, and 8.4%, respectively, with manufacturing profits declining for two consecutive months [3][17] Structural Highlights in Profits - Structural highlights in November's industry profits were mainly concentrated in emerging industries, with high-tech manufacturing profits accelerating by 2.0 percentage points to 10% year-on-year [4][19] - Significant profit growth was observed in sectors related to "Artificial Intelligence +", aerospace, and smart consumer devices, with semiconductor equipment profits soaring by 97.2% and aerospace-related equipment profits increasing by 192.9% [4][19][20] - The overall midstream equipment manufacturing profits remained robust, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 7.7% [4][19] Inventory and Financial Health - As of the end of November, the nominal and actual inventories of industrial products continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in nominal inventory and 6.8% in actual inventory [5][22] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for November was estimated at 0.54, indicating a passive inventory accumulation due to demand slowing faster than supply [5][22] - The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 58.1% by the end of November, with liabilities growing by 5% year-on-year [5][27][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit scale increasing by 39% and broad deficit scale by 27% [1][12][13] - The government debt net supply is expected to reach a recent high, with a notable increase in the issuance pace of bonds, particularly in the first half of 2025, where net supply is projected to increase by 128% year-on-year [1][14] - Fiscal expenditure trends are expected to show a "U" shape in 2024 and a "front high and back low" pattern in 2025, aligning with economic and equity asset trends [1][13] Group 2 - One highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a commitment to reduce reliance on non-tax income [1][16] - Tax revenue is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by active industries and tax policy adjustments, contrasting with the decline in non-tax revenue [1][17] Group 3 - Another highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the expansion of debt resolution methods and the diversification of debt resolution tools, including the issuance of special new bonds and the use of local fiscal funds to pay for existing PPP project costs [2][19] - The debt resolution measures are expected to benefit small and micro enterprises by improving cash flow [2][19] Group 4 - A constraint on the economy in 2025 is the anticipated slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, attributed to various factors including the front-loading of fiscal funds and the diversion of debt funds to debt resolution [2][22][23] - The decline in infrastructure investment growth is expected to be predictable, with narrow infrastructure investment growth dropping from 10.4% in the first five months to 0.1% by November [2][22] Group 5 - Looking ahead to 2026, the central economic work conference has indicated that a "more proactive fiscal policy" will continue, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal intensity compared to 2025 [3][25] - The narrow target deficit rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level of 4.0%, with a small chance of increasing to 4.2%, reflecting a cautious approach to fiscal policy [3][25][26] Group 6 - The broad deficit is expected to see structural adjustments, with new special bonds projected to increase from 4.6 trillion yuan to around 5 trillion yuan, focusing on optimizing the use of local government special bonds [3][28] - The total government debt net supply is anticipated to be approximately 14.9 trillion yuan in 2026, an increase of about 5.4 billion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal policy [3][30] Group 7 - Fiscal revenue growth is projected to rebound to around 3%-5% in 2026, driven by price increases and the effects of tax policy adjustments [3][33] - The expected growth in fiscal expenditure is anticipated to slow to 3.9%, down from 5.9% in 2025, reflecting limited debt expansion [3][34] Group 8 - The main driver for fixed asset investment will be the 500 billion yuan new policy financial tools, which are expected to leverage credit significantly and support investment growth in 2026 [3][36] - The focus on effective investment will also include adjustments to special bonds and support for private sector participation in key projects [3][39] Group 9 - In the consumption sector, there is an expected structural shift towards new types of consumption and service consumption, with a focus on releasing the potential of service consumption [3][41] - The anticipated growth in durable goods consumption is expected to slow, while service consumption areas such as tourism and elderly care are projected to see increased demand [3][41] Group 10 - The debt resolution area is expected to expand to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear debts owed by local governments to enterprises [3][43] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for multiple measures to mitigate risks associated with local government financing platforms [3][43] Group 11 - The improvement of the local tax system is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [3][45] - The reforms aim to create incentives for local tax revenue generation and shift the competitive focus from production to consumption [3][45]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第四， 简单来看，三季度 GDP 数据继续验证降息周期下的软着陆逻辑。消费端韧性带动了企业盈利的显著 修复（环比折年率 +4.2% ，前值 +0.2% ），并向就业端有效传导，支撑了私人部门招聘回暖（参见《如何 理解一并公布的 10 月和 11 月非农数据》，从而确立 " 消费 - 盈利 - 就业"的正循环。然而，通胀读数的 边际回升构成了核心风险点。展望 2026 年，在 OBBBA 法案减税红利、劳动力市场修复及财富效应的共振 下，总需求有望进一步反弹。若叠加供给侧刚性，需求扩张 + 供给受限可能增强通胀粘性，进而对美联储未 来的货币政策路径形成实质性扰动。 第五， 数据公布当天， FED WATCH 显示 1 月大概率不降息， 3 月降息概率为 39.9% ，前值 44.7% ， 即降息预期有所收敛。美债利率回升， 2 年期国债收益率回升 4bp 至 3.48% ， 10 年期回升 1bp 至 4.18% 。美元指数降至 97.9 。美股总体小幅收涨：道指 +0.16% ，标普 500 +0.46% ，纳指 + ...

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) for December 2025 decreased by 3.6 points to 49.1, which is higher than the levels in December 2022 and 2023 but lower than the levels in other years since 2014 [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Overall EPMI Performance - The EPMI's absolute level of 49.1 is the third lowest since data collection began in 2014, indicating a relative decline compared to historical averages [7][8]. - Among seven major sub-industries, three are above the expansion threshold of 50, while four are below, consistent with November's performance [4][8]. Key Sub-Indicators - Production volume, product orders, and export orders fell by 3.5, 5.4, and 3.0 points respectively in December [9]. - The demand decline was faster than production, leading to a significant increase in the production-to-order ratio, which reached 4.8 in December, compared to average values from 2021 to 2025 [9][10]. - The sales price index rose by 0.2 points, with notable increases in the new energy and new energy vehicle sectors, which saw price increases of 3.6 and 1.8 points respectively [9][11]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 2.9 points, indicating a slightly tighter credit environment for emerging industries compared to November [9]. Sector Performance - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors maintained high levels of prosperity, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its prosperity index in December [14]. - The new energy and new energy vehicle sectors experienced a decline in prosperity compared to October, but remained among the top three sectors [14]. - Other sectors such as high-end equipment, new materials, and energy conservation and environmental protection are in a contraction phase [14][15]. Future Outlook - The EPMI is expected to continue reflecting seasonal trends, with a slight decline anticipated in the manufacturing PMI for December, as historical data shows a tendency for decreases during this period [18]. - The overall economic environment remains subdued, with nominal growth stabilizing due to supply-side policies, while actual growth remains to be validated in the context of investment recovery [21].

广发证券资深 宏观分析师 文永恒 博士 wenyongheng@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 在论述"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标时，"十五五"规划建议稿提出"居民消费率明显提高"，这 是自"十二五"规划建议以来，时隔15年后再次针对居民消费率提出明确政策目标要求。相较"十二五"时 期"居民消费率上升"主要针对的是经济结构的战略性调整优化；此次提出"居民消费率明显提高"，则更多聚 焦的是解决"有效需求不足等突出问题"。在本篇中我们尝试对"居民消费率"这一概念做出系统梳理。 第二 ， 什么是消费率？消费率是指一个国家或地区在一定时期内的最终消费与GDP的比率，反映一个国家生 产的产品用于最终消费的比重，是衡量国民经济中消费比重的重要指标，一般按现行价格计算，用公式表示 为：消费率=（最终消费／支出法GDP）*100％。与之对应，投资率又称资本形成率，指资本形成总额占国 内生产总值的比重。开放经济模式下，国内生产总值除被用于消费与投资，还将用于净出口(出口减进口)。简 单来说，当净出口等于0的时候，消费率+投资率=100% 。 第三， 最终消费可进一步拆解为居民消费与政府消费两部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving financial conditions and potential new growth drivers for the global economy leading into 2026, highlighting the impact of changes in monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and domestic economic strategies in major economies like the US, Europe, and China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Conditions and Economic Outlook - The US dollar index is expected to stabilize after a downward trend, influenced by factors such as limited room for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and potential new economic policies in the US [1]. - Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% marks the highest level in 30 years, which may increase the cost of carry trades and lead to a deleveraging of risk assets [2]. - Domestic interest rates in China are showing signs of change, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising from 1.65% and 1.86% in June to 1.84% and 2.24% in December, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Rotation - In the third week of December, macro data reinforced expectations for US interest rate cuts, leading to a mixed performance in equity markets, with notable differentiation among sectors [4][5]. - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showed divergent trends, with the Nasdaq up by 0.48% while the Dow Jones fell by 0.67% [5]. - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with non-tech sectors beginning to realize their potential advantages, particularly in consumer finance [9]. Group 3: Commodity Pricing Dynamics - Commodity pricing is influenced by both forward-looking expectations of US interest rate cuts and current supply disruptions, with silver and base metals showing strong performance [6][7]. - Brent crude oil prices have faced downward pressure due to ongoing production increases from non-OPEC+ countries, despite a brief rebound [7]. - The gold-silver ratio has significantly decreased, indicating a relative increase in the attractiveness of gold compared to silver [6]. Group 4: Economic Data and Employment Trends - The US labor market remains resilient, with November non-farm payrolls showing strength, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [12]. - Inflation data for November indicates a cooling trend, but potential distortions due to government shutdowns may affect the reliability of these figures [13][14]. - The European Central Bank has signaled a pause in interest rate cuts, indicating a longer duration of high rates, while the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to future rate hikes reflects a data-dependent strategy [15][16]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Indicators in China - China's economic indicators show a mixed picture, with retail sales expected to slightly decline in December due to high base effects, while industrial production is projected to slow down [18][19]. - The central bank's recent actions, including the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, indicate a focus on maintaining liquidity in the financial system [21][22]. - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus, with recent fiscal data showing weak spending, particularly in areas related to construction and community services [25][24]. Group 6: Growth in Cultural and Health Industries - The cultural, tourism, and health sectors in China have seen significant growth, with notable increases in sales revenue across various categories, including performing arts and health services [26][27]. - The silver economy is projected to reach a market size of approximately 7 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting the increasing demand for services catering to the aging population [29].

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of the US CPI report due to the government shutdown has led to significant data gaps, particularly for October, which may result in increased statistical noise and reduced effectiveness as a policy indicator [1][5][7]. Group 1: CPI Data Analysis - The US CPI for October to November increased by 2.7% YoY, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and below the expected 3.1% [2][11]. - The core CPI increased by 2.6% YoY, also below expectations and the previous value of 3.0% [2][11]. - The significant weakness in core CPI is attributed to the BLS's assumption of zero growth for October prices, which affected the largest components, particularly housing [2][12]. Group 2: Statistical Methodology - The BLS employed a carry-forward methodology for CPI calculation, assuming no price changes for certain items during the data collection gap, which artificially suppressed the reported inflation figures [7][8][9]. - The absence of October data means that the CPI calculation for housing (OER) may only reflect half of the expected increase, leading to a potential rebound in future data [9][12]. Group 3: Core Goods and Services Inflation - Core goods inflation showed a significant slowdown, with an average monthly increase of only 0.03%, far below the expected 0.3% [3][13]. - Core services inflation also fell short of expectations, with an average monthly increase of just 0.08%, primarily due to weak performance in OER and major residence rent [14][15]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, slightly above expectations [4][16]. - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts remained stable, with a 47.3% probability of a cut in March [4][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance - The stock market rebounded, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing gains, particularly in sectors like technology and semiconductors [4][17]. - Risk appetite improved, with sectors like engineering, software, and consumer discretionary also performing well, while energy and financial sectors lagged [17].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a decline in revenue growth due to high base effects from the previous year and a slowdown in public budget expenditure, particularly in infrastructure-related spending. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous year, primarily due to high base effects from the same period last year [1][4] - The cumulative public budget revenue for the first 11 months of the year increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest growth rates in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022 [1][4] - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with corporate income tax experiencing a significant decline, while personal income tax and domestic value-added tax remained strong, with personal income tax growing by 11.5% year-to-date [5][6] Group 2: Public Budget Expenditure - Public budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year decline of -9.8% in October and -3.7% in November, with cumulative expenditure progress for the first 11 months at 84%, slower than previous years [2][8] - Expenditure related to infrastructure, particularly in rural and community sectors, saw significant declines, while technology spending grew by 27.4% year-on-year in November [2][9] - The public budget revenue-expenditure gap reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, influenced by the slowdown in infrastructure spending [12] Group 3: Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued weak performance in the income side, aligning with the downturn in real estate data [15][16] - The article emphasizes the importance of observing fiscal trends in early 2026, as the first quarter will be critical for assessing the impact of policy financial tools and investment stabilization efforts [3][15]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 美国劳工部 12 月 16 日公布非农就业数据 。 由于此前的政府停摆，本次非农数据属于 10 月和 11 月一并发布。但住户调查（ Household Survey ） 数据（包括失业率等）将缺失 10 月数据，且不会再 补采。 第二， 从数据质量看，本次机构调查数据（非农）的参考价值相对更好一些，由于本次非农数据的采集期更长， BLS 在发布时已纳入更多企业上报信息，逻辑上 11 月数据的准确性高于常规初值、 10 月数据准确度接近终值。但住户调查（失业率）数据的参考价值将打折扣。劳工统计局（ BLS ）表示 ，受联邦政府停摆 及 11 月数据收集工作中断的影响，住户调查在未来几个月内的可靠性将有所下降。 第三， 具体来看， 11 月新增非农 6.4 万人，高于预期的 5 万人，亦高于达拉斯联储估算的 3 万人 / 月就业平衡水平。 10 月新增非农 -10.5 万人，主要反映 一次性扰动下政府部门就业人数减少。从私人部门就业来看， 11 月增 6.9 万人， 10 月增 5.2 万人；三个月移动平 ...