Core Viewpoint - The BCI index from Changjiang Business School showed a significant rebound in September, rising from 46.9 to 51.1, indicating a potential improvement in economic conditions compared to previous months [1][5]. Group 1: BCI Index and Economic Indicators - The BCI index's increase in September is attributed to both month-on-month and year-on-year factors, with September being a peak season for industry and a low point in the previous year [1][5]. - The sales and profit forward-looking indices of BCI increased by 13.9 and 7.2 points respectively, suggesting the seasonal characteristics of "autumn prosperity" are beginning to manifest [7]. - The sales forward-looking index for September reached 60.9, recovering from a low of 47.0 in August, while the profit forward-looking index rose to 48.3 from 41.0 in August [7]. Group 2: Price Indices and Inventory Changes - Both price indices showed upward trends, with consumer goods price expectations improving more significantly than intermediate goods, indicating a positive outlook for consumer prices [2][8]. - The inventory forward-looking index rose sharply in August but fell quickly in September, reflecting passive inventory changes due to weak demand in August and subsequent demand recovery in September [10][11]. Group 3: Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index showed a slight month-on-month increase, continuing the seasonal pattern of improvement at the end of quarters [3][14]. - The financing environment index for September was 47.6, indicating a need for policy support as it remains weaker than the levels seen in March and June [3][14]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Relationships - The BCI can be viewed as a shadow indicator of economic fundamentals, with historical correlations observed between BCI and stock/interest rate movements [4][15]. - The divergence between stock performance and BCI primarily occurred in January and during June to August, suggesting that market expectations around policy and economic growth are influencing asset pricing [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of asset revaluation, highlighting macroeconomic improvements, asset pricing recovery, and the strengthening trend of the AI industry as key characteristics since September 2024. It also provides insights into the performance of various indices and the implications for equity markets moving forward [1][2]. Macroeconomic Constraints - Asset pricing has begun to reflect nominal growth performance, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Wind All A Index at 3.1% by the end of 2024, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate during the same period [2]. - Short-term growth is showing signs of slowdown, with fixed asset investment declining rapidly, leading to increased growth pressure. Additionally, geopolitical factors, such as new tariffs announced by the U.S., are contributing to this environment [2]. - The market is currently focused on technology sectors, which are globally interconnected, meaning adjustments in overseas assets could cause disturbances in the domestic market [2]. Supporting Factors - New short-term growth policies are emerging, including a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool expected to stimulate project initiation in early Q4 [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will clarify the central government's suggestions for the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially leading to policy benefits in various sectors [3]. - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 may see local investments compensating for fixed asset investment shortfalls, aiding in economic rebalancing [3]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the asset rotation index is on the rise, with new pricing clues emerging from concerns over high valuations in U.S. stocks, interest rate cut divergences, and global supply chain disturbances [4][5]. - The U.S. stock market has shown weakness compared to European and Japanese markets, with significant declines in major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [5]. - Commodity prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with notable increases in oil and copper prices due to geopolitical risks and supply disruptions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, indicating resilience despite signs of economic cooling. Service consumption was a significant contributor to this growth [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's comments on high stock valuations and the labor market's weakening signals suggest a cautious outlook for future economic policies [15][16]. - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with production and demand signals indicating a need for careful monitoring of growth trends [19][20]. Industry Developments - The construction sector is seeing improvements in funding rates for housing projects, while non-housing projects continue to show positive trends [22]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reductions, indicating a shift towards sustainable development [24][25]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined growth plans for key industries, including steel and petrochemicals, with specific annual growth targets [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Group 1 - The article discusses the limitations of traditional liquidity research, which categorizes liquidity into narrow (money) and broad (credit) dimensions, and highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to understand the flow and usage of liquidity in the real economy [1][12][14] - The construction of a household activity income and expenditure table is proposed, integrating data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the central bank to provide a clearer picture of household income and expenditure dynamics [2][16][19] Group 2 - The income side of the household activity table includes seven components, with total household income growing at an average annual rate of approximately 6%, reaching 106 trillion yuan in 2023 [2][19] - Labor remuneration constitutes 45%-49% of total income, while property income remains stable at around 5%-6%, indicating a shift in income sources and a recovery in household balance sheets as debt income has decreased from 10% to 5% [2][19][21] Group 3 - The expenditure side of the household activity table shows that interest payments have increased from 1.5% to 1.7%, while actual final consumption has risen from 54% to 57%, reflecting changes in fiscal support and consumer behavior [3][24][25] - The analysis indicates that the structure of household spending has remained consistent with income growth, but the capital formation total has decreased from 14% to 10%, primarily due to a slowdown in housing and individual investment [3][24][25] Group 4 - A quarterly household activity income and expenditure table is proposed to analyze short-term changes in household income, consumption, and financial investment behaviors [4][33] - The article notes that disposable income growth is expected to rebound in 2024Q2-2025Q1, while consumption is projected to follow a similar trend, although it may decline in 2025Q2 [4][34][37] Group 5 - Financial investment is defined as the portion of total income remaining after consumption and non-financial investments, with three notable expansions of residual liquidity since 2016, indicating shifts in investment preferences towards stocks and bonds [6][42][46] - The article highlights that in the first half of 2025, the flow of residual liquidity shifted from bond assets to stock assets, reflecting changing market conditions and investment opportunities [7][49][50]

Group 1 - The article discusses the macro perspective on the recent revaluation of equity assets, summarizing insights from eleven reports that form a methodological series [1] - It identifies five asset classes that have performed notably well since early 2025, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging market stocks, major market tech stocks, and alternative assets [6] - The article outlines three main themes behind these asset performances: the weakening of dollar credit and "soft decoupling" of assets, the reshaping of global supply chains and "backup" supply, and a new wave of technological revolution and industrial layout [1][6] Group 2 - The article analyzes the acceleration of technological innovation in China, using the pharmaceutical industry as an example to observe the release of the "engineer dividend" in the economy [2][9] - It discusses the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB and asset appreciation, noting that the exchange rate is influenced by purchasing power parity, interest rate differentials, and risk premiums [2][11] Group 3 - The article identifies five key drivers behind the recent pricing recovery of equity assets, including total recovery, broad-based growth improvement, increased asset activity among residents, medium to long-term capital entering the market, and rising credit risk premiums on dollar assets [2][13] - It explains the phase of divergence between equity market performance and economic indicators, using the "Changjiang Business School BCI" to represent economic fundamentals and "Wind All A" for the equity market [2][13] Group 4 - The article explores the relationship between liquidity and asset pricing, indicating that liquidity affects financial market asset pricing through opportunity costs and the availability of financing [3][13] - It summarizes five characteristics of high-growth narratives in the equity market, observed during specific periods, including macro risk clearance, low traditional asset profitability, ample liquidity, sticky expected returns, and the presence of industry narratives [3][14] Group 5 - The article presents a "5+1" timing framework for high-growth narratives, which has yielded a cumulative return of 1147.47% since 2006, with an annualized return of 13.96% and an annualized excess return of 2.98% [4][15] - It builds an analytical framework for understanding the recent rise in gold prices, incorporating its financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven attributes, along with a quantitative monitoring system for gold price indicators [4][16]

Core Viewpoint - By the third quarter of 2025, Chinese technology assets are leading among major asset classes, reflecting the trend of China's economic upgrade and the realization of the "engineer dividend" advantage [1][9][10]. Dimension Summaries Dimension 1: Macro Risk Clearance - High-growth narratives require a risk clearance opportunity where capital is willing to invest. The study tested six potential variables, revealing that timing signals based on the MOVE index and monthly nominal GDP down volatility yield significant excess returns. The strategies based on these signals since 2006 have shown cumulative returns of 1176.91% and 1227.15%, respectively [2][13][16]. Dimension 2: Nominal Growth Rate Central Level - If the nominal growth rate is below the historical average, asset returns are constrained. A strategy of increasing allocation to technology assets when nominal GDP is low has yielded cumulative returns of 1184.04% since 2006. The best macro scenario for high-growth sectors is when nominal growth is at a low level with marginal improvement [3][17][19]. Dimension 3: High-Yield Asset Scarcity - The essence of asset scarcity is not a lack of assets but a mismatch between changing asset returns and rigid capital return expectations. A strategy based on high-yield asset scarcity has yielded cumulative returns of 258.06% since 2014, indicating that negative carry conditions favor technology assets [4][21][23]. Dimension 4: Internal and External Liquidity Conditions - The analysis considers both domestic and international liquidity conditions. A strategy based on low SHIBOR rates and a narrowing yield spread has shown cumulative returns of 433.01% since 2012, indicating favorable conditions for technology stocks [5][25][27]. Dimension 5: Existence of Industry Narratives - The study quantifies the impact of long-term narratives on short-term pricing by examining the difference between price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. A strategy based on the presence of industry narratives has yielded cumulative returns of 518.05% since 2009, suggesting that new industry information can catalyze long-term narratives [6][30][32]. Dimension 6: High-Growth Odds Perspective - The analysis focuses on market breadth and concentration within technology stocks. A strategy based on market width has yielded cumulative returns of 264.87% since 2013, indicating that a healthy market breadth is essential for sustaining high-growth narratives [7][34][35]. Composite Summary - A "5+1" timing strategy has been constructed, integrating five winning dimensions and one odds dimension. The composite signal has shown cumulative returns of 1147.47% since 2006, indicating a robust framework for understanding high-growth asset pricing [8][36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The September EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, indicating a seasonal recovery typical of autumn, although the absolute level remains historically low [1][6][24]. Group 1: EPMI and Industry Trends - The EPMI's increase aligns with the seasonal average of 4.5 points from 2014 to 2024, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 2 to 4 [1][6][7]. - Despite the improvement, the absolute EPMI value of 52.4 is the second lowest for September in history, down 0.9 points from the previous year [6][24]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key supply and demand indicators showed improvement: production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 7.8, 6.5, and 6.8 points respectively [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio turned positive, with an average of 0.7 for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating an improvement in supply-demand balance compared to previous years [9][10]. - Price indicators also improved, with purchase prices and sales prices rising by 0.8 and 0.2 points respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to July and August [9][12]. Group 3: Employment and Financing Environment - The EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 0.9 points, suggesting a more favorable financing environment for emerging enterprises due to increased credit support and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [15][16]. - Employment indicators have shown a two-month recovery, with a 2.6-point increase in September, indicating stronger demand for jobs in new industries during the graduation season [15][16]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In September, the highest absolute economic performance was observed in the new generation information technology and energy-saving environmental sectors, driven by demand growth related to AI computing power and domestic substitution [19][20]. - The new energy vehicle sector also saw a month-on-month increase in economic performance, with retail sales growing by 6% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19][20]. - The performance of traditional sectors varied, with some industries like petroleum asphalt and automotive tires showing increased operating rates, while others like high furnace and PVC saw declines [23][24]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - The third quarter has shown signs of continued economic slowdown, with September data being crucial for short-term economic assessment [24]. - The EPMI data suggests a neutral economic outlook, with seasonal recovery not extending the trends observed in July and August, indicating that achieving annual growth targets will require further policy support [24].

广发宏观周度述评（第32期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-31期，复盘必读） 内容 第一，年内第三轮政策集中发力期。 2025年以来，宏观经济政策经历两轮集中发力。 第一轮是年初，侧重点是居民部门预期。抓手之一是"两新"加力。1月5日《2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》落地 ；抓手之二 是落实地产领域政策，1月1日后各地批量下调存量贷款利率、优化住房公积金政策 ；抓手之三是巩固资本市场预期。1月24日六部门印发实施方案大力推动中长 期资金入市 。 从现实效果来看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，出口高开、地产好转、"两新"高增是背后的主要驱动。 第二轮是5月，侧重点是金融条件。抓手之一是货币政策放松，5月7日国新办发布会宣布了包括降准、降息、结构性货币政策工具扩容在内的一揽子政策 ；抓手之 二是加快"两重"项目落地，5月20日发改委发布会表示将推动一大批"两重"项目开工投产 ；抓手之三是进一步推动金融支持科技，七部委联合印发《加快构建科 技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》的通知 。 从现实效果来看，二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，在海外关税的扰动下依然保持了较明显的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "6+4" local government debt resolution plan for 2024, which primarily targets the 14.3 trillion yuan of hidden debts recognized by the central government, emphasizing the need to address overdue payments to enterprises for cash flow recovery [1][9][10]. Summary by Sections Government Debt Classification - Government debt is classified into explicit debt (82.1 trillion yuan), recognized hidden debt (10.5 trillion yuan, reduced by 3.8 trillion yuan from 2023), government payment responsibilities, and debts of state-owned enterprises [2][11][12]. Incremental Policies for Debt Clearance - Key policies include allocating special bond quotas to clear enterprise overdue payments and allowing local bonds to support government-related costs in existing PPP projects [3][13][19]. Special Bonds for Overdue Payments - In 2024, 4.4 trillion yuan of new special bonds will be allocated to repay overdue payments, with an estimated 400 billion yuan specifically for this purpose. The average proportion of special bonds for clearing debts in seven provinces is 23%, with a national estimate of around 10% [3][14][15]. Changes in Special Bond Issuance - By now, provinces have issued approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt clearance, exceeding initial plans by 400 billion yuan. There is a notable shift in issuance among provinces, with significant increases in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][15][17]. Distinction of Current Special Bonds - The current special bonds for enterprise overdue payments are distinct from previous allocations, focusing solely on overdue payments rather than mixing with other project costs [4][17][18]. Support for PPP Projects - Local bonds are now permitted to support government costs in existing PPP projects, which is crucial given the total government expenditure responsibility for PPP projects is projected to reach 14.34 trillion yuan by 2026 [5][19][20]. Land Purchase Bonds - Special bonds are also allowed for repurchasing idle land, with 3.131 billion yuan issued for this purpose, which helps alleviate local debt pressure [6][22][23]. Impact on Enterprises - Previous debt clearance policies have benefited infrastructure-related enterprises, but the transmission efficiency remains slow. The pressure on accounts receivable in small and micro enterprises continues to be the highest among industries [7][25][26]. Future Policy Directions - The article suggests that future policies will likely continue to focus on improving cash flow for enterprises and addressing overdue payments, with potential expansions in the scale of special bonds for these purposes [8][31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks the first rate cut since the easing cycle began in September 2024, reflecting a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks [1][7][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The FOMC voted to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, with a dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut, which did not gain widespread support [1][7]. - The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][7]. - The dot plot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, with further cuts in 2026 and 2027 [2][9][11]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The economic projections for GDP growth have been revised upward, with 2025, 2026, and 2027 growth rates adjusted to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively [2][9][11]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while 2026 and 2027 are slightly adjusted down to 4.4% and 4.3% [2][12]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% for 2025, with a slight increase to 2.6% for 2026 [2][12]. Group 3: Powell's Interpretation - Powell's interpretation of the rate cut is somewhat hawkish, emphasizing risk management and a shift in focus from inflation to employment [3][12][13]. - The Fed's future policy path will remain data-dependent, with decisions made on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3][12][14]. - The current rate cut is characterized as "preventive" rather than "emergency," aligning more with historical precedents from 1967 and 1995 [3][14][31]. Group 4: Historical Context of Rate Cuts - The 1967 preventive rate cut was aimed at avoiding recession amid slowing economic growth, which ultimately succeeded in stabilizing the economy [4][19][20]. - The 1995 rate cuts were also preventive, aimed at extending economic expansion without triggering inflation, resulting in a positive market response [5][21][22]. - In contrast, the emergency rate cuts in 2001 and 2007 were reactive to severe economic downturns and did not prevent subsequent recessions [5][25][26]. Group 5: Implications for Asset Pricing - The rate cut is expected to support upward revisions in corporate earnings, positively impacting short-term stock performance [6][43]. - Short-term interest rates will decline, while long-term rates may remain resilient due to fiscal pressures, leading to a potential steepening of the yield curve [6][43][44]. - Gold prices may benefit from lower real interest rates and increased risk premiums associated with Fed independence [6][45]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 recorded a 12.4% year-over-year EPS growth in Q2, indicating a rebound in earnings expectations [6][44]. - The overall market sentiment remains sensitive to interest rates, demand, and profit margins, with high-quality growth stocks likely to benefit [6][44]. - The demand for gold ETFs has increased, reflecting a shift towards long-term hedging strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainties [6][46].