Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fourth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [1][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, aligning with market expectations. The focus is on the implications of the decision, including the dot plot guidance for future policy, the Fed's understanding of the economy and inflation, and Powell's outlook [1][7]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates a consensus among 19 participants, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025, while 7 foresee no cuts. The projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest one cut each year, with policy rates expected to decline to 3.875%, 3.625%, and 3.375% respectively [2][9][10]. Economic Projections - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reflects a cautious outlook, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revised down to 1.4% and 1.6%. Unemployment rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly increased to 4.5% [3][11][12]. Powell's Optimism - Powell expressed a relatively optimistic view on the economy, noting improved business sentiment and a stable job market. He acknowledged the delayed impact of tariffs on inflation and economic data [4][14][15]. FOMC Statement Changes - The FOMC statement showed minor changes, indicating a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but still highlighting elevated risks. The committee no longer views the probability of rising unemployment and inflation as worsening [5][17][18]. Neutral Stance and Future Flexibility - The meeting's neutral stance allows for flexibility in responding to economic data changes. The Fed faces a dilemma between cutting rates to support employment and maintaining high rates to control inflation [6][20]. The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in July, with a 57.9% chance of a cut in September [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and home appliance sectors remain key highlights of the economy under the "Two New" policy benefits, with steady growth in retail sales of passenger vehicles and significant increases in new energy vehicle sales [1][7][8]. Automotive Sector - From June 1 to June 15, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 20% year-on-year, compared to 13% in the previous month. Wholesale sales rose by 24% year-on-year, up from 14% [1][7]. - New energy vehicle sales during the same period reached 402,000 units, marking a 38% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 57% [1][7]. Home Appliance Sector - The three major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) maintained high sales growth, particularly in the first week of June, although growth slowed in the second week. Online sales from June 2 to June 8 showed year-on-year increases of 80.0% for air conditioners, 5.7% for refrigerators, and 42.6% for washing machines [8][9]. - In the subsequent week, online sales growth for these appliances dropped significantly, with air conditioners at 12.5%, refrigerators at -14.5%, and washing machines at 9.7% [8][9]. Industrial Sector - Container throughput growth has slowed, with domestic ports reporting a 0.6% year-on-year decline in cargo throughput from June 2 to June 15, while container throughput saw a slight increase of 0.7% [2][9]. - The industrial sector's operating rates and electricity consumption reflect seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries showing lower operating rates compared to May [3][11]. Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities dropping by 7.6% year-on-year in mid-June [5][18]. - However, the second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in intermediary purchases across 84 cities [5][18]. Price Trends - Industrial product prices have seen a slight month-on-month recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while consumer goods show mixed trends [19][20]. - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, indicating fluctuations in food prices [20].

摘要 第一， 5 月经济数据公布。六大口径数据中，消费、服务业高于前值；工业、投资、出口、地产销售低于前值。生产法 之下的 GDP 依旧较高，按照工业增加值、服务业生产指数公布值模拟，实际 GDP 同比大约在 5.35% 左右；支出法 之下的终端需求则有所分化，其中消费明显超预期，出口、投资、地产销售不同程度放缓 。 第二， 工业增加值韧性中放缓。5月同比5.8%，出口放缓所带来从需求向供给的传递可能是原因之一，可以看到同期 产销率有所下降。从主要产品来看，产量增速较高的仍主要是工业机器人、集成电路、太阳能电池、汽车等领域；新兴 产业产品中，增速较低的主要是智能手机，月度和年累计均在同比负增区间。手机内销增速较高，但出口增速较低。水 泥产量同比降幅扩大，反映建筑业投资处于偏弱状态 。 第三， 社零增速出现跃升。 5 月同比达 6.4% ，其中城市消费修复速度更快，城市消费在 2023 年下半年 - 今年 2 月一直弱于农村消费，今年 3 月起开始高于农村， 5 月领先幅度进一步扩大。增速较高的门类包括家电、通讯器材、 文化办公、体育娱乐、家具、金银珠宝、粮油食品、烟酒等，其中家电、通讯器材的增速均处于年内新高 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第18期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-17期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 严格账期是"反内卷"的第一步。 从实际增长来说，"924"以来的宏观经济政策已有明显成效，GDP同比已从2024年三季度低点的4.6%重新回升至5%以 上。这意味着后续更多政策可能会更集中于解决名义增长问题。所以今年二季度以来，我们看到政策关于"反内卷"的信号显著升温。 主要行业中，哪些"反内卷"的问题最为紧迫？我们理解包括钢铁（前5个月PPI同比-10.0%）、煤炭（前5个月PPI同比-14.1%）、光伏（电气机械行业前5个月 PPI同比-1.5%）、汽车（前5个月PPI同比-3.2%）等。 上周起，多家汽车企业相继宣布将供应商账期控制在60天以内[1]。 我们理解这一举动一则有助于产业链中小企业现金流的改善，有助于稳市场主体、稳就业；二则它实际上是"反内卷"的重要组成部分。 账期长意味着生产企业对于供应链企业资金存在额外的占用时间，客观上相当于微观层面叠加一层加杠杆。汽车行业严格账期相当于强制整车企业微观去杠杆，从 而可以显著降低企业价格"内卷"的能力。 严格账期只是"反内卷"的开始，基于行业数据特征，我们估计后续政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively controlling risks and reducing volatility in asset management, advocating for a "macro factor" risk parity strategy that adapts to changing macroeconomic environments, contrasting it with traditional asset risk parity models [1][13][15]. Group 1: Macro Factor Risk Parity Framework - The construction of a macro factor risk parity framework involves four steps: selecting factors, calculating risk exposure, determining target risk exposure, and matching target risk exposure to asset weights [2][16][17]. - The mainstream methods for constructing macro factors include using low-frequency economic data, principal component analysis (PCA), and regression methods to fit higher-frequency macro factors [3][18][19]. Group 2: Factor Construction and High-Frequency Transformation - The article outlines a refined approach to factor construction, summarizing it as "defining dimensions, screening assets, and high-frequency transformation," which combines the advantages of various methods [3][18][19]. - The transformation of low-frequency macro factors into high-frequency factors is achieved through factor mimicking, which involves regression analysis to identify strong correlations with asset prices [5][29][31]. Group 3: Risk Exposure and Asset Sensitivity - A risk exposure matrix is created to show the sensitivity of assets to different macro variables, using robust OLS regression to capture dynamic features [6][33][34]. - The analysis reveals that large-cap stocks are more sensitive to economic growth, while mid-cap stocks are more sensitive to liquidity conditions [6][35][38]. Group 4: Performance of Different Strategies - The "lightweight" strategy, focusing on growth and inflation factors, has shown an annualized return of 7.7% with a volatility of 5.4% since 2016, outperforming traditional asset risk parity strategies [7][40][41]. - The "three-dimensional" strategy, incorporating M1, BCI, and PPI, has yielded an annualized return of 9.0% with a volatility of 7.8%, indicating a more diversified asset allocation [8][9]. - The "broad-spectrum" strategy, which includes multiple macro factors, has achieved an annualized return of 7.5% with a lower volatility of 4.0%, demonstrating a higher Sharpe ratio compared to simpler models [9][10].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 5 月社融增加 2.3 万亿元，同比多增 2271 亿元，略高于 WIND 统计的市场平均预期（ 2.05 万 亿）；社融存量增速为 8.7% ，与上月持平。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，企业债券、政府债券、外币贷 款同比多增。 正文 5月社融增加 2.3 万亿元，同比多增 2271 亿元，略高于 WIND 统计的市场平均预期（ 2.05 万亿）；社融 存量增速为 8.7% ，与上月持平。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，企业债券、政府债券、外币贷款同比多 增。 第二， 实体信贷增加 5960 亿元，同比少增 2237 亿元。从 BCI 企业融资环境指数回升来看， 5 月实体部 门感受到的金融条件有所改善，对应供给情况可能并不弱；信贷同比偏弱可能与需求端因素有关：一是化债置 换；二是外贸环境存在不确定性的背景下，企业部门暂缓资本开支；三是政府主导项目有待加速， 5 月政策 性金融债净融资 + 新增 PSL 同比缩量 1890 亿元。 第三， 分主体看，企业部门中长贷增加 3300 亿元，同比少增 1700 ...

第一， 5 月美国通胀数据 略低于预期，同比基本持平前值 ： CPI 同比 2.4% ，前值 2.3% ，预期 2.4% ；环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，预期 0.2% 。核心 CPI 同比 2.8% ，前值 2.8% ，预期 2.9% ；环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，预期 0.3% 。从克利夫兰联储 Trimmed Mean CPI 和亚特兰大联储粘性 CPI 来看，通胀 广度和通胀粘性变化不大。 第二， 5 月核心商品价格环比 0% ，前值 0.1% ；同比 0.3% ，前值 0.1% 。 其中关税的影响线索相对分化， 服装（ -0.4% ）、汽车（新车 -0.3% ）价格 环比继续回落，家电价格环比持平于前值（ 0.8% ） ，即这几个大项影响尚不显著；部分商品则能明显看到关税上升对价格的影响传递，比如 医疗商品（ 0.6% ）、个人电脑（ 1.1% ）电视（ 0.2% ）、户外设备（ 0.6% ）、玩具 （ 1.3% ） 等 。 第三， 核心服务环比 0.2% ，低于前值的 0.3% ；同比 3.6% ，持平前值的 3.6% 。 其中 OER 和主要居所环比分别从 0.4% 和 0.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 5月出口表现怎么样？我们理解是"整体韧性+小幅放缓"。4.8%的单月同比仍不算低；但略低于一季 度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，环比也低于历史同期的季节性水平。这一数据和国内集装箱吞吐量数据也比较匹 配，5月5-25日集装箱吞吐量同比5.0%，略低于4月同比的7.3%。 第 二 ， 出 口 有 所 放 缓 的 主 要 原 因 是 什 么 ？ 很 显 然 ， 主 要 来 自 于 对 美 出 口 的 拖 累 。 5 月 对 美 出 口 同 比 为-34.5%，较前值的-21.0%进一步降幅扩大。关税和贸易环境不确定性的影响初步呈现。 第 三 ， 微 观 上 不 是 存 在 " 抢 出 口 " 的 特 征 么 ？ 在 前 期 报 告 中 我 们 做 出 过 解 释 ， 从 中 国 对 美 集 装 箱 发 船 （TRVSDCVN）来看，5月上中旬存在一定"抢出口"特征，但下旬再度转弱。我们理解可能是在关税缓和 后，海外进口商存在短期的库存加快回补；但由于预期尚不明朗，这一脉冲较快释放完毕。 第四， 为什么对美航运运价仍在上行？和TRV数据不太匹 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年 4 月以来，一系列有关稳定币的立法引起金融市场关注。 4 月 2 日, 美国众议院金融服务 委员会通过《 STABLE Act of 2025 》（稳定币透明与问责法案）。 5 月 19 日， 美国参议院表决推进《 GENIUS 》法案（美国稳定币国家创新法案）进入下一立法阶段。 5 月 28 日，英国金融行为监管局（ FCA ）发布关于稳定币发行、加密资产托管的监管提案。 5 月 30 日，中国香港特别行政区政府在宪报刊登 《稳定币条例》. 第二， 什么是"稳定币"？稳定币是一类加密货币，可以在区块链（公链）上发行，但和一般加密货币不同的 是，它通过锚定法定货币或其他低波动资产，来实现相对的价值稳定。根据锚定资产的不同，它可以分为法币 抵押型、商品抵押型、加密资产抵押型、算法型（无抵押），前三种在道理上大同小异。以锚定美元的稳定币 为例，发行人一般通过三步维系这一锚定：（ 1 ）铸币（ Mint ） - 用户缴纳 1 美元等值资金，发行人将 1 枚稳定币写入链上；（ 2 ）储备（ Reserve ） - 发行人把收到的资金存入受监 ...