Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].

Group 1 - Power generation data for coal-fired plants showed a significant year-on-year decline of 14.8% as of September 11, marking the lowest level of the year, compared to a decline of 1.3% in August [1][6][7] - Industrial operating rates exhibited mixed trends, with the overall change being relatively stable compared to August; the operating rate for blast furnaces increased by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate for coke enterprises rose by 7.5 percentage points [2][8] - Key steel production from major steel mills showed a slight month-on-month decline, with rebar production averaging 2.153 million tons per day, down 1.1% month-on-month [3][9] Group 2 - Infrastructure funding availability stabilized, with the funding rate for construction sites reaching 59.39% as of September 16, a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points [4][11] - High temperatures led to a relative decline in residents' mobility, with metro passenger volume in major cities averaging 60.24 million trips, down 3.5% month-on-month [5][12] - Real estate sales remained weak on a month-on-month basis, but showed improvement year-on-year, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [6][15][16] Group 3 - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year decline of 4% from September 1 to 14, while wholesale sales also decreased by 3% [7][19] - Home appliance sales growth slowed down significantly, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing declines of 33.9% to 0.3% year-on-year [8][20] - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 11.7% year-on-year from September 1 to 14, indicating strong export resilience [9][21]

Economic Overview - August economic data shows continued slowdown, with six major indicators (exports, industrial output, services, retail sales, investment, and real estate sales) all below previous values. GDP estimates based on production and expenditure methods are approximately 4.67%, lower than July's 4.91% [1][7][8] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in August grew by 5.2%, down from 5.7% in the previous month. The slowdown in export delivery value, which saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, is a significant drag on industrial performance [2][12] - High-tech industries continue to show resilience, with added value increasing by 9.3%. Key products like new energy vehicles and solar cells maintain high growth rates [2][13] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease from 3.7% in July. Notable trends include accelerated rural consumption and a slowdown in urban consumption [3][14] - Categories with relatively high growth include sports and entertainment, jewelry, and home appliances, driven by service consumption trends and policy benefits [3][15] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from 1.6% to 0.5%, and a monthly decline of 6.3%, worsening from -5.2% previously. Real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investments are all contributing to this downturn [4][16] - Manufacturing investment showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in equipment updates [4][16] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward trend, with sales area, new starts, construction, and investment all showing increased year-on-year declines. The new housing price index in 70 major cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with previous values [5][20][21] - Real estate investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 19.4%, with new construction area down by 20.3% [5][20] Economic Phases - The economic rhythm of this year can be divided into three phases: strong growth in Q1 driven by exports and real estate, a resilient Q2 despite external disturbances, and a noticeable slowdown in July and August [5][22] - If Q3 GDP is estimated at 4.8%, achieving the annual target of 5.0% will require a Q4 growth rate of approximately 4.64% [5][22] Policy Outlook - Current macroeconomic policy is in the second phase, focusing on stabilizing cash flow and profit statements. The government is expected to continue its counter-cyclical adjustments following the release of August economic data [6][23]

Group 1 - The performance of major asset classes since the beginning of 2025 has been led by precious metals, with COMEX gold rising by 38.8% and COMEX silver by 45.8% [1] - Emerging market stocks have also performed well, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 19.7% and the Vietnam VN30 Index up 38.7% [1] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with the NASDAQ rising by 14.7% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 20.5% [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar credit and the "soft decoupling" of asset classes are key themes driving asset performance [2] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping global supply chains, leading to a "backup" of supply and increased value for key metals and resources [2] - A new wave of technological revolution, particularly in renewable energy and artificial intelligence, is creating new demand for non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The expectation of US interest rate cuts has led to a rise in global stock markets, with Chinese technology assets leading the gains [4] - The G7 long-term bond yields have decreased, and the US dollar has weakened against most currencies, supporting the performance of commodities like gold and silver [5] - The recent performance of gold has shown a strong correlation with external markets, with London gold prices rising by 1.6% to $3,651 per ounce [6] Group 4 - The Chinese stock market has seen a return of high growth narratives, particularly in technology and real estate sectors, with the overall A-share index rising by 2.12% [12] - The automotive industry is projected to achieve stable growth, with a target of approximately 3% year-on-year growth in sales by 2025 [26] - The electric power equipment industry has set a target for an average revenue growth rate of around 6% from 2025 to 2026 [24] Group 5 - The recent economic data indicates a recovery in both actual and nominal GDP, with September's actual GDP growth estimated at around 4.76% [17] - The PPI is expected to show a slight recovery due to low base effects, with projections indicating a monthly decline of around -0.13% [19] - The liquidity environment is being closely monitored, with the central bank increasing base currency injections to stabilize market fluctuations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of social financing and credit growth in August, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity and improve credit demand, particularly in the household sector [1][6][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In August, social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, aligning closely with market expectations of 2.53 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Credit Performance - The increase in real credit was 623.3 billion yuan, showing significant improvement from July but still below historical averages for the same period [7][9]. - The year-on-year decrease in real credit was 417.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in credit demand [7][9]. Corporate Credit - Corporate short-term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, the highest for the same period since 2017, driven by factors such as inventory replenishment and banks' preference for short-term loans under stable interest margins [9][10]. - Corporate medium and long-term loans rose by 470 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 20 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in financing demand for major projects [9][10]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing increased by 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [3][10]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 134.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36 billion yuan, reflecting increased costs and difficulties in issuing bonds [3][10]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans decreased by 9 billion yuan, but showed a year-on-year increase of 52.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of improvement since April [3][12]. - The increase in non-discounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing patterns [3][12]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was 6%, up by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by a low base effect and increased corporate foreign exchange settlements [4][12]. - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, supported by increased fiscal spending, while household deposits showed a significant decrease [4][12]. Overall Economic Outlook - The financial data for August indicates signs of fiscal strength and a recovery in corporate financing demand, but low leverage willingness in the household sector remains a concern [15][6]. - Upcoming policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies and adjustments in real estate regulations, may influence household leverage willingness, with September and October data being critical for observation [15][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US inflation data, highlighting the resilience of inflation despite some structural differences, and the implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5][21]. Inflation Data Summary - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [1][5]. - Core CPI also remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. - The inflation peak occurred in June 2022 at 9.1%, followed by a downward trend, with a low of 2.3% in April 2025 before gradually rebounding [1][5]. Core Goods Prices - Core goods prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% [2][11]. - Factors contributing to this increase include a rebound in used car prices and price hikes in various goods affected by tariffs, such as televisions (+2.5%) and new cars (+0.3%) [2][11][12]. - Some goods, like footwear (-0.4%) and personal computers (-0.6%), saw price declines, indicating mixed impacts from tariffs [2][11]. Services Prices - Core services CPI remained sticky, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - Housing costs, particularly owners' equivalent rent, were significant contributors, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - The supercore services category (excluding housing) saw a slight decrease in month-on-month growth to 0.3% from 0.5% [3][20]. Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, surpassing market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [4][25]. - The increase in jobless claims, combined with previous non-farm payroll slowdowns, suggests a significant weakening in employment signals [4][25]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 93.9% from 91.1% [4][26]. - US Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2 basis points to 3.52% and the 10-year yield down 3 basis points to 4.01% [4][26]. - The US dollar index weakened to 97.53, while major US stock indices rose, particularly the Russell 2000 index, which saw significant gains [4][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of a pilot program for the market-oriented allocation of factors in various regions of China, emphasizing the need for reform in the factor market to enhance economic efficiency and productivity [1][8]. Group 1: Reasons for Initiating Factor Market Reform - The factor market in China is less developed compared to commodity and service markets, necessitating reform to improve market efficiency [1][8]. - The pilot program is set to last for two years, aiming for completion by 2027, following previous top-level designs and plans established in 2020 and 2022 [1][8]. Group 2: Selected Pilot Cities - The pilot cities include key regions such as Beijing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, aligning with national strategic development goals [1][9]. - The selected cities collectively account for over 25% of the national economic output in 2024, indicating their significant influence and potential for reform [1][10]. Group 3: Elements Involved in Marketization Reform - The reform encompasses various factors including technology, land, labor, data, capital, resources, and new types of factors such as computing power and spectrum [2][10]. - Specific initiatives include promoting technology transfer, deepening industrial land market reforms, facilitating labor mobility, and enhancing data application scenarios [2][10]. Group 4: Data Factor Marketization - The main approach for data factor marketization involves exploring circulation mechanisms and application scenarios to realize value [2][12]. - Key tasks include enhancing public data resource sharing, fostering collaborative innovation in data applications, and establishing data circulation trading mechanisms [2][12][14]. Group 5: Technology Factor Marketization - The focus is on creating a unified national technology market, including establishing regulatory frameworks and promoting interconnectivity among technology trading platforms [3][15]. - Initiatives include developing financial products to support technology transfer and enhancing international technology cooperation [3][15][16]. Group 6: Land Factor Marketization - The reform aims to increase flexibility in land resource usage, including deepening land management reforms and innovating industrial land supply [4][18]. - Strategies involve revitalizing underutilized land and promoting mixed-use land management to meet diverse industrial needs [4][19]. Group 7: Human Resource Factor Marketization - The reform emphasizes improving talent evaluation and compensation systems, enhancing public employment services, and fostering a conducive environment for talent mobility [6][20]. - Key initiatives include expanding job opportunities, strengthening employment services, and optimizing the market environment for human resources [6][21][22]. Group 8: Economic Impact of Factor Marketization Reform - The reform is seen as a crucial step in building a high-standard market system in China, addressing supply-demand imbalances, and enhancing micro-efficiency [7][23]. - It is expected to stimulate long-term investment opportunities in areas such as data asset formation, technology innovation, and land utilization [7][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic indicators for August, highlighting a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decrease of 0.4% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) decrease of 2.9%, which aligns closely with the company's predictions. The article emphasizes the impact of base effects on these indices and suggests a slight improvement in the economic outlook for September and beyond [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4%, lower than the predicted -0.13%, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, closely matching the forecast of -2.96%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI is approximately -1.40%, similar to the previous value of -1.44% [1][5]. - The article notes that August experienced significant base pressure for CPI and PPI, indicating a collision of the highest CPI base pressure and the largest PPI base advantage of the year [1][6]. Monthly Trends - Both CPI and PPI remained flat month-on-month in August, showing slight improvement compared to previous periods. Notably, PPI components marked the first month of positive growth in 2023, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to a new high of 0.9% year-on-year [1][8][19]. - The non-food CPI segment showed weaker month-on-month performance compared to July, primarily due to the price rhythm of durable goods. Despite this, household appliances still saw a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [13][14]. PPI Component Insights - The article highlights a clear stabilization in upstream prices, with mining and raw materials showing significant month-on-month positive changes. Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting transitioned from negative to positive growth [16][17]. - The automotive manufacturing sector continued to experience a decline of 0.3% month-on-month, primarily attributed to traditional fuel vehicles, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and new energy vehicles showed reduced year-on-year declines [16][17]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the rising price indicators in the PMI over three consecutive months indicate initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. The PPI data for August supports this conclusion, with a clear policy direction aimed at consolidating competitive restructuring in key industries [3][19]. - Looking ahead, the company forecasts that September's CPI and PPI will benefit from favorable base effects, projecting a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.15% and a PPI decrease of 2.55%, indicating potential improvements in deflationary pressures [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the transition from liquidity-driven asset pricing to profit-driven phases, contingent on actual and nominal growth recovery. The construction industry and PPI are identified as critical indicators for this transition [4][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of China's export performance in August, highlighting the divergence in export markets and the differentiation in export products, while also addressing the implications of tariffs and economic policies on future trade dynamics [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In August, China's exports amounted to $321.81 billion, showing a slight increase from July's $321.78 billion. The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1%, which is considered normal given the high base in July. Year-on-year, exports grew by 4.4%, aligning with the two-year average growth rate [4][5]. - Exports to the U.S. weakened significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 33.1%, while exports to the EU and ASEAN showed positive growth rates of 10.4% and 22.5%, respectively. Notably, exports to Africa increased by 25.9% year-on-year, marking a structural highlight in the export landscape [6][7]. Product Differentiation - There is a clear differentiation in export products, with labor-intensive goods such as textiles and electronics experiencing declines of 7.7% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively. In contrast, high-end equipment exports, including integrated circuits and automobiles, saw significant growth rates of 32.8% and 17.3% [7][9]. Tariff Impact and Future Outlook - The article notes that the recent suspension of tariffs by the U.S. and China may lead to a relatively stable trade environment in September and October. However, the fourth quarter may face challenges due to higher base effects and potential uncertainties regarding tariff policies [9][10]. - The import figures for August showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which is lower than July's 4.1% but better than the previous months' declines. The article suggests that the import momentum remains weak, and a recovery may depend on future inventory replenishment by enterprises [10][11]. Economic Drivers - The current economic structure is driven by exports and new industries, while real estate and local infrastructure investments are under pressure. The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing domestic demand before November, when trade uncertainties may increase [11].

广发宏观周度述评（第29期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-28期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年的经济节奏为什么是季末高、季初低 ？ 2025 年以来一个有意思的现象是：经济尤其是供给端高点位于季度末， 3 月、 6 月工业增加值同比分别为 7.7% 、 6.8% ，均明显超预期；季度初则放缓明显， 4 月、 7 月工业增加值同比分别为 6.1% 、 5.7% 。如果按照工业增加值、服务业生产指数进行生产法 GDP 指数模拟，则 3 月和 6 月均为 5.7% 、 5.5% ， 4 月和 7 月则分别为 5.4% 、 5.0% 。从 PMI 来看也结论类似， 3 月和 6 月均环比反弹， 4 月和 7 月均环比回落。 我们理解其中有两个关键原因： 原因之一是出口交货节奏的影响。今年出口交货值的两个高点就位于 3 月和 6 月，同比分别为 7.7% 、 4.0% ，其余月份（不含春节）同比增速却只有 0-1% 。这应和企业应对贸易环境不确定性有关。 4 月美国"对等关税"落地之前， 3 月企业加快了出口交货； 5 月中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 ， 6 月企业加快了出 口交货。 原因之二是政策节奏的影响。 2025 ...