Core Viewpoint - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the cumulative growth of 6.1% in the first three quarters and 6.6% in the third quarter, indicating a slowdown in export momentum due to elevated base effects [1][6][8]. Export Performance - The cumulative year-on-year export growth for the first ten months stands at 5.3%. Historical data suggests that the average ratio of combined export amounts for November-December to October's export amount is 2.16 and 2.19 for the past five and ten years, respectively, indicating potential annual export growth rates of 4.7% and 4.9% for 2025 [10][11]. - Exports to major regions show varied performance, with exports to the U.S. remaining stable, while exports to other regions have experienced varying degrees of slowdown. The share of exports to ASEAN and the EU is 17.5% and 14.9%, respectively, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 11.4%, significantly lower than 19.2% at the end of 2018 [2][11]. Product Analysis - Labor-intensive consumer goods saw a significant decline, with exports of textiles, bags, toys, and clothing down by 15.9% year-on-year. Mobile phone exports fell by 16.6%, and household appliances by 13.6%. This trend is attributed to a shift in production focus to Southeast Asia due to lower labor costs [3][12]. - In contrast, high-end manufacturing products remain competitive, with automotive exports increasing by 34.0%, ship exports by 68.4%, and integrated circuit exports by 26.9% in October [3][12]. Future Trade Environment - The trade environment for 2026 is expected to be influenced positively by ongoing fiscal expansion and interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S., a relatively stable tariff environment, and the growth of AI-related product trade, which is projected to increase by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][14]. - However, challenges such as high base effects and uncertainties in the tariff environment may lead to potential export surges that could inflate overseas inventories. Overall, a positive growth of 3-5% in Chinese exports is anticipated for the coming year [4][14]. Import Trends - After a surge in September, imports in October saw a slight increase of 1.0%, indicating that domestic demand still requires improvement and that the inventory replenishment cycle has not yet formed [6][18]. Key imports showing higher growth include soybeans (up 11.4% year-on-year) and integrated circuits (up 10.2% year-on-year) [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in October 2025 shows a clear ranking, with Nikkei 225 leading, followed by strategies like long VIX and gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics and asset allocation strategies [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The major asset performance in October 2025 is ranked as follows: Nikkei 225 > Long VIX > Gold > Nasdaq > USD > Chinese bonds > European stocks > CSI 300 > South China Composite > ChiNext > Crude Oil > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Tech [1][14]. - The characteristics of asset balancing have strengthened, with broad narrative trading loosening and other assets experiencing some catch-up [2][14]. - Global stock markets showed more gainers than losers, with significant differentiation; Japanese stocks led gains, while U.S. stocks experienced increased volatility and Chinese assets adjusted [2][3][23]. Group 2: Macro Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a return to the "safe asset" pricing of G7 long-term bonds, with yields in Germany, the UK, France, and Italy declining [2][3][26]. - The U.S. dollar has rebounded by 2.5%, breaking the 100 mark, amidst a narrative shift regarding the restructuring of the dollar system [2][3][26]. - Domestic equity assets have shown a return to pricing power, with significant differentiation between large and small caps, and a return to dividend value [2][3][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The next driving factors for equity assets may come from "investment shortfall补短板," with a high sensitivity to marginal changes in fixed asset investment [5][30]. - The calendar effect in Q4 is expected to promote style balancing, with historical data indicating higher success rates for dividend and financial sectors during this period [5][30]. - The high-growth sector's narrative may continue to loosen, impacting investment strategies and asset allocation [13][30]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, with the 10-year government bond yield declining to 1.79%, indicating a release of previous pricing risks [2][30]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields remains stable at -0.63, suggesting a continued "see-saw" effect in domestic markets [2][30]. - The recent volatility in major asset classes has led to a rotation in asset rankings, with the number of daily changes in asset rankings increasing from 121 to 128 [15][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of "narrative trading" on asset pricing, emphasizing that asset pricing is influenced not only by fundamentals but also by popular narratives such as the restructuring of the dollar credit system and the new technological revolution [1][12]. Group 1: Narrative Economics - The influence of narratives on economic phenomena consists of a series of elements: a popular, easily spread story, public behavior, and an epidemiological model for macro-level dissemination [2][16]. - The concept of "herding behavior" is used to illustrate how narratives affect micro-level decision-making, with varying strengths across different phases of narrative development [2][18]. Group 2: Herding Effect in Asset Allocation - Traditional studies of herding behavior focus on individual stocks and short-term market sentiment, but the current narrative-driven environment poses challenges for asset allocation due to the breakdown of continuity in global fiscal, monetary, and trade environments [3][20]. - The article suggests that the herding effect can be quantified and applied to investment portfolio optimization and asset timing strategies [3][20]. Group 3: Measurement of Herding Effect - Four common indicators of herding behavior are identified: Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD), the quadratic coefficient of return dispersion, standard deviation of beta coefficients, and cross-correlation [4][23]. - The CSAD index, which measures the deviation of asset returns from the average, indicates the presence of herding behavior when returns cluster around a certain average level [4][23]. Group 4: Current State of Herding Effect - The CSAD index for major asset classes shows a right-skewed distribution, indicating a tendency for extreme herding behavior, with a mean-reverting characteristic suggesting that extreme trends are difficult to maintain [5][28]. - Since May 2025, the CSAD has decreased significantly, indicating a rapid herding effect, but has started to rebound slightly, suggesting a potential shift towards more balanced asset performance [5][28]. Group 5: Strategy Integration - The article proposes integrating the herding factor into a macro risk parity framework, which has shown superior annualized returns compared to traditional models [6][34]. - The new framework suggests increasing allocations to equities and commodities while reducing bond exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy based on herding behavior [6][34]. Group 6: Domestic Equity Market Analysis - The herding effect in the domestic equity market, as measured by the CSAD, has shown a decline in right-skewness, indicating lower dispersion compared to historical levels [7][40]. - The herding effect has gone through phases of fermentation, intensification, and now a slight loosening, suggesting a gradual return to individual rationality among investors [7][40].

Global Asset Narrative - The core narrative of global assets is showing signs of loosening expectations but has not yet reversed. Key narratives include the weakening of dollar credit, gold transitioning from a safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor, the reshaping of global supply chains, AI as the foundation of a new technological revolution, and non-ferrous metals being likened to the oil of this new revolution [1][2]. Recent Market Developments - Since October, the pricing environment for assets has shown signs of loosening consensus expectations, particularly with a rebound in the dollar, which rose from a low of 96.6 on September 16 to 99.7 by October 31. This shift has led to discussions around new economic logics such as increased labor productivity and rising real interest rates [2]. - Gold prices have experienced significant adjustments, peaking at $4,357 per ounce on October 20 before falling to $3,997 by October 31, influenced by geopolitical factors and easing global trade tensions [2]. - Recent economic discussions between China and the U.S. have yielded new outcomes, with tariffs being canceled or suspended, indicating a reduction in the risks of further disruptions in global supply chains [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - Meta's increased capital expenditures have led to a significant stock price adjustment, indicating a potential break in the positive cycle of AI infrastructure investment and market valuation [3]. - There is a general consensus on the increased demand for non-ferrous metals due to new industries, but there are differing views on the magnitude of this demand [3]. - The loosening of narratives is expected to impact asset prices, leading to increased volatility in financial market expectations, although the foundational narratives remain intact [3]. Global Market Performance - Global stock markets have shown divergence, with U.S. stocks beginning to exhibit signs of concern. The MSCI developed and emerging markets saw narrower gains of 0.61% and 0.92%, respectively [4][5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.71% and 2.24%, respectively, despite concerns over Meta's aggressive capital spending plans leading to an 11% drop in its stock price on October 30 [5]. - In the commodities market, precious metals have moved away from a one-sided trend, with gold prices continuing to decline while silver prices increased by 2.0% [6]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's economic performance in Q3 exceeded market expectations, with GDP growth of 0.2%, driven by stable investment and public spending despite weak private consumption [18][19]. - The ECB maintained interest rates at 2% during its October meeting, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [19]. - In China, the stock and bond markets have shown signs of a "see-saw" effect, with the A-share market experiencing a slight increase of 0.41% [11]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has announced plans to enhance digital transformation in urban areas, aiming to establish over 50 fully digitalized cities by 2027 [27][28]. - Recent policy measures aim to improve the financing environment for enterprises, with the BCI index rising from 47.6 to 52.4, indicating a more favorable outlook for corporate financing [24].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for October decreased by 0.8 points to 49.0, influenced by fewer working days, uncertainties in external trade, and a continued decline in the real estate sector [1][6][7]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, 8 out of 15 sub-sectors in manufacturing remained in the expansion zone, consistent with previous values. Industries showing improvement include emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, general equipment), consumer goods (agricultural products, textiles), and some raw material sectors (chemicals, black metals) [1][10]. - Emerging manufacturing sectors saw a month-on-month increase due to factors such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy benefits, trends in AI industries, and the tax exemption window for new energy vehicles [10]. - The consumer goods sector's improvement was driven by increased travel activities during holidays, seasonal changes, and the "Double Eleven" e-commerce promotional events [10]. - The black metal sector experienced slight improvements due to seasonal factors and demand from downstream construction and automotive sectors, while the chemical sector saw a decline in new orders and production indicators [10]. Absolute Prosperity Levels - The absolute prosperity levels and percentile values for emerging manufacturing sectors like automobiles and computer communication electronics are leading. The petrochemical sector's prosperity percentile is above 90%, benefiting from declining crude oil prices [2][13]. Declining Industries - Industries experiencing a downturn in October include petrochemicals, chemical fibers, non-ferrous metals, metal products, and electrical machinery. The decline in the petrochemical chain is linked to price adjustments, with the output price index for petrochemicals, chemical fibers, and chemicals dropping by 10.8, 2.0, and 3.4 points respectively [2][15][16]. - The electrical machinery sector, which includes both new energy-related products and home appliances, faced a decline primarily due to high base effects and reduced subsidies [15]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and the biopharmaceutical sector are leading in prosperity, with slight declines in energy-saving and environmental protection sectors. In October, the prosperity of new energy vehicles, biopharmaceuticals, and new-generation information technology increased by 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively, marking three consecutive months of improvement [3][16][17]. - Export orders for emerging industries improved significantly, with October seeing increases exceeding 10 points for biopharmaceuticals, new-generation information technology, and new energy vehicles [3][16]. Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a divergence between real estate and infrastructure. Civil engineering construction increased by 8.1 points in October, ending a four-month decline. The basic drivers for infrastructure are clear, with new policy financial tools and special bonds allocated for investment construction [4][20]. - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with the real estate industry's prosperity declining by 1.7 points and the construction sector down by 6.7 points [4][20]. Service Sector - The service sector showed little change month-on-month, with significant improvements in accommodation, catering, and aviation due to holiday travel. The postal sector also saw a substantial increase driven by e-commerce promotions [4][22][24]. - The PMI for the service sector rose by 0.1 points to 50.2, indicating stability [23].

Group 1 - The core consumption data during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday shows stability, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively. Notable sales growth was observed in mobile phones (18.8%), automobiles (12.6%), and jewelry (41.1%) [1][6][7] - The power generation growth rate in October significantly exceeded that of September, attributed to high temperatures in southern regions. Cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 8% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 12.6% in September [1][7] - Industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with most year-on-year growth rates lower than previous values due to elevated bases. The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8 percentage points [2][8][9] Group 2 - The crude steel production growth rate declined year-on-year, with key enterprises reporting a decrease of 2.3%. The production of rebar fell by 13.8% year-on-year, indicating a divergence in demand from the real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][10][11] - The photovoltaic industry continues to improve, with the Solar Manager Index (SMI) rising to 126.08 points, marking a 7.0 percentage point increase month-on-month and a 1.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][13][14] - Infrastructure physical workload indicators have not shown significant recovery. The funding availability rate for construction sites increased by 0.2 percentage points, while the asphalt operating rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3][16][17] Group 3 - Real estate sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of 29.0% in daily transactions across 30 major cities. The sales in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 39.6%, 21.0%, and 29.6% respectively [4][18][19] - Retail sales of passenger cars experienced a year-on-year decline of 7% during the first 26 days of October, influenced by high bases and subsidy reductions [4][21] - Home appliance sales and production growth rates continued to decline, with offline sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly [5][22][23] Group 4 - Port container throughput growth remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% from September 29 to October 26 [5][24] - The overall economic resilience is observed in the export sector, while industrial operating rates show little change, and durable consumer goods sales have entered a high base period [5][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of various commodity prices in October, highlighting the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector amid macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply disruptions from Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 870 points as of October 30, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the end of September, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 2.2% month-on-month [1][4]. - In the domestic market, prices of thermal coal and coking coal futures saw significant increases of 9.2% and 19.1% respectively, while chemical products, cement, and glass prices showed notable declines of -1.9%, -3.1%, and -10.6% respectively [8][10]. - The South China comprehensive index remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year average decrease of 0.3% compared to a previous increase of 6.0% [8]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities continued to adjust, with declines of -1.2%, -0.7%, -1.7%, and -0.9% in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively as of October 20 [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Prices in emerging sectors such as storage chips and lithium carbonate remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a price decline, with the photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) down 0.5% month-on-month [2][11]. - The DXI index, representing the semiconductor (DRAM) industry, surged by 93.5% month-on-month, indicating a robust outlook for the memory sector [2][11]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the export shipping sector, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) fell by 6.1% month-on-month, while the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York increased by 5.5% and 8.9% respectively [13]. - The average value of the road logistics price index showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, indicating a gradual decline from the peak observed in June [15]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 7.8% and key vegetable prices rising by 13.6% month-on-month [3][15].

Core Viewpoint - The October PMI data indicates a slight decline below expectations, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.0, down 0.8 points month-on-month, reflecting a lack of consistent economic signals in the short term [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0, lower than the previous value of 49.8, while the service PMI is at 50.2, slightly up from 50.1. The construction PMI stands at 49.1, down from 49.3 [5][11]. - The October EPMI (Emerging Industries PMI) saw a significant increase of 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical increase for this month [5][6]. Production and Economic Signals - A notable contraction in the production sector is observed, with production, procurement, new orders, and backlog orders indices decreasing by 2.2, 2.6, 0.9, and 0.7 points respectively [8][11]. - The production index fell sharply from 51.9 in September to 49.7 in October, attributed to uncertainties in tariffs and shipping environments, leading companies to adopt a more cautious production approach [8][10]. Recent Developments in Trade - Recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in late October resulted in the cancellation of certain tariffs and a pause on additional tariffs, which may positively influence the PMI production index in November [2][10]. Construction Sector Insights - A positive signal from the October PMI series is the rebound in new orders and business activity expectations in the construction sector, with increases of 3.7 and 3.6 points respectively, reaching the highest levels since March and February [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan has been fully allocated to support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [3][11]. Market Implications - The October PMI reflects a manufacturing PMI retreat and a decline in the construction index, indicating that the rise in infrastructure has not fully offset the decline in real estate investment, which is favorable for the bond market [4][15]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases suggests a potential decrease in interest rates, although the space for significant rate cuts may be limited due to the ongoing fiscal policies and rising construction orders [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% is seen as a response to economic conditions, with market focus shifting towards guidance for December's rate decisions and the end of the balance sheet reduction plan [1][8]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut since the resumption of easing in September 2025 [1][8]. - Stephen Miran, a board member, voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, but this view did not gain widespread support [1][8]. FOMC Statement and Economic Indicators - The FOMC statement indicated that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with a slight adjustment in language regarding employment risks, suggesting a softening labor market despite data gaps due to government shutdowns [2][10]. - The FOMC announced the end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) starting December 1 and will reinvest proceeds from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into U.S. Treasury bills [2][10]. Powell's Press Conference Insights - Jerome Powell's comments reflected a hawkish stance regarding potential rate cuts in December, highlighting significant internal disagreements within the Fed about the direction of monetary policy [3][12]. - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in job growth, attributing part of this to a decline in labor force growth, while maintaining an optimistic view on inflation, estimating core inflation to be around 2.2%-2.3% when excluding tariff impacts [3][15]. Balance Sheet Reduction and Market Liquidity - Powell emphasized that the Fed would halt balance sheet reduction when bank reserves exceed the level deemed "ample," noting rising repo rates and increased use of the standing repo facility (SRF) as indicators of liquidity pressures [4][16]. - The Fed's experience from the September 2019 liquidity crisis informs its current approach, as it seeks to avoid a repeat of that situation by monitoring liquidity conditions closely [5][18]. Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut decreased, with a two-thirds probability now estimated based on futures markets [7][37]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 4.07% and the 2-year yield rising by 12 basis points to 3.59%, reflecting a repricing of short-term policy expectations [7][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key changes and focuses in the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), highlighting shifts in development goals, industry focus, and policy priorities. Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the complexity of the development environment, including unilateralism and hegemonism, while also recognizing favorable long-term trends. It highlights issues such as insufficient effective demand and pressures on employment and income growth, indicating a greater focus on total demand during this period [1][14][16]. Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets seven goals, with a clear emphasis on "significant achievements in high-quality development," which includes maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving total factor productivity, and increasing the resident consumption rate. The plan also introduces a new goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology [2][17][18]. Industry Development - The plan includes a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries. It highlights the importance of traditional sectors like mining and manufacturing while also emphasizing new industries such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][19][20]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through a new national system and extraordinary measures, particularly in areas like integrated circuits and advanced materials. It also proposes increased R&D tax deductions and greater government procurement of innovative products [4][20][21]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The plan shifts from a supply-driven approach to one that emphasizes demand, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment. It includes measures to enhance consumer spending and streamline government investment processes [5][22][23]. Systemic Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on enhancing the vitality of various business entities and improving the market-oriented allocation of resources. It emphasizes the need for stronger protection of property rights and the optimization of asset structures [7][24][25]. Opening Up - The plan advocates for a steady expansion of institutional openness, aiming to align with international high-standard trade rules and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi, reflecting a proactive approach in the context of global economic changes [8][26]. Rural Revitalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" continues to prioritize rural revitalization, incorporating lessons from previous initiatives to improve rural infrastructure and public services, thereby promoting agricultural modernization [9][27][28]. Regional Development - The plan emphasizes the role of key regions in driving economic growth and proposes measures to enhance public services based on residency registration, reflecting a focus on urbanization and regional advantages [10][29]. Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the establishment of a new energy system, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy and implementing dual control over carbon emissions, indicating a commitment to sustainable development [11][30]. Social Welfare - The plan places a strong emphasis on high-quality employment and income distribution, introducing measures to enhance social security and housing supply, reflecting a shift in the perception of housing as a social issue [12][31][32].