Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for nominal growth rebound in the first year of the five-year plan, highlighting historical patterns where such rebounds occurred in 2006, 2010, 2016, and 2021, with specific internal and external demand influences noted [1][2] - It suggests that the first year of a new five-year plan often sees concentrated investment in key projects, leading to increased fixed asset investment growth [2][3] - The article estimates that 2026 could be a moderate recovery phase for nominal growth, driven by low fixed asset investment in the previous year and clear targets for consumption rate improvement [3][4] Group 2 - Global stock markets, including A-shares, are experiencing broad gains, with traditional sectors showing valuation recovery and growth themes like commercial aerospace and AI technology leading the charge [5][10] - The article notes a significant increase in market sentiment, with the S&P 500 fear and greed index rising to 104.5, indicating a shift towards risk-on sentiment [6] - Commodity prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, with oil and precious metals seeing price increases, while copper prices have shown volatility [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization, with non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [14][15] - The article highlights the potential for a significant reduction in effective tariff rates if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the current administration's tariff powers [16][17] - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the domestic market, including the impact of seasonal factors on CPI and PPI, with expectations for a slight increase in CPI and a decrease in PPI [19][20] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand, with specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer spending and supporting private investment [30][31] - It mentions the cancellation of VAT export rebates for solar products, indicating a shift in policy that may impact the solar industry [31] - The article also addresses the need for regulatory measures in the battery industry to prevent irrational competition and ensure sustainable development [32][27]

Employment Data Summary - In December, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 56,000, but still above the Dallas Fed's estimate of 30,000 jobs needed for labor market balance [1][5] - Private sector job growth was 37,000, also below the expected 50,000, indicating weak hiring intentions among businesses [5][6] - The three-month average for both total and private sector job additions has declined, reflecting a cooling labor market [6] Sector Analysis - Job growth in the service sector rebounded, with significant contributions from leisure and hospitality (+47,000), healthcare and social assistance (+39,000), and local government (+18,000) [9][10] - Conversely, job losses were noted in retail (-25,000), construction (-11,000), and professional and business services (-9,000), indicating greater pressure on cyclical industries sensitive to interest rates [9][10] Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.54% to 4.38%, with an increase of 232,000 in the employed population and a decrease of 278,000 in the unemployed population [2][10] - The labor force participation rate (LFP) slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%, with notable improvements in the unemployment rate for the 16-19 age group [2][10] Wage Growth and Labor Market Dynamics - Wage growth remained sticky, with December hourly wages increasing by 3.8% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, surpassing previous values [2][16] - The average weekly hours worked decreased slightly to 34.2 hours, but the resilience in wage growth supports household purchasing power [16][17] Overall Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is in a new equilibrium state, with both labor supply and demand growth slowing down [3][18] - The tightening of immigration policies and demographic factors are contributing to a slowdown in labor supply, while demand is cooling due to interest rate effects and cautious corporate sentiment [3][18] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Data has reduced the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with market expectations for a pause in rate cuts rising to 95% [4][19] - Following the data release, U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, and major stock indices rose, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards broader economic recovery narratives [4][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in CPI and PPI for December 2025, highlighting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for both indices, with PPI marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Year-on-year, CPI and PPI are reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively, exceeding previous model predictions [1][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% is attributed to various sectors, with negative growth observed in pork, alcoholic beverages, rent, fuel, and traditional Chinese medicine. Positive growth is noted in fresh vegetables, fruits, medical services, gold jewelry, and durable goods [6][7]. - Durable goods prices showed significant improvement, particularly in household appliances, which saw a historical high month-on-month increase of 1.4% in December, likely influenced by seasonal factors and PPI transmission [6][8]. - Transportation tools experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, above the ten-year average of -0.15%, possibly due to stabilization in car prices amid a "de-involution" context [6][8]. PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% is driven by a 0.8% rise in the mining industry, marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Raw materials and processing industries also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, the fastest rates of the year [2][9]. - In the living goods category, while food and durable goods continued to show negative growth, clothing and general daily necessities recorded increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, marking the second-highest points of the year [2][9]. - Specific industries showed price differentiation, with rising prices in coal mining and processing, contributing significantly to PPI growth. Additionally, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production increased by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively [10][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the simulated deflation index is expected to rise gradually after hitting a low in July 2025, correlating with the timing of increased "de-involution" efforts. The central economic work conference indicates that addressing "involution" will be a key focus for 2026 [3][11]. - Historical economic cycles indicate that periods of nominal growth elasticity, such as 2006-2007 and 2010-2011, are characterized by strong internal demand stimulation. The outlook for 2026 suggests potential benefits from external demand due to fiscal expansions in developed economies and industrialization in developing countries [3][11].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) underwent a rebalancing from January 9 to January 15, resulting in a significant reduction of gold and silver weights, with gold decreasing from 20.5% to 14.9% and silver from 9.7% to 3.94% [1][6][30] - Historical data suggests that rebalancing typically has limited impact on futures and spot prices, primarily affecting open interest and trading volume [8][30] - The 2026 rebalancing is unique due to the unprecedented reduction in silver weight by 5.8%, alongside a notable increase in silver's volatility and liquidity concerns [8][30][33] Group 2 - Since 2022, silver and gold mining stocks have been viewed as "gold-like" assets, with financial attributes driving their pricing. However, a shift occurred in 2025, where silver's spot market experienced short-term tightness, leading to a narrative-driven market [12][13] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for nearly 60% of total demand by 2024, significantly up from 45% in 2015, driven by solar energy and other industrial applications [17][18] - The narrative around silver pricing is expected to evolve, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price fluctuations, particularly as new industrial demands emerge [19][27] Group 3 - The analysis of past silver pricing trends indicates that significant price movements were often linked to broader economic narratives, such as geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [21][22] - Current conditions suggest that the "shortage" narrative for silver is easing but has not fully reversed, with indicators like swap rates and leasing rates showing signs of stabilization [24][27] - The upcoming year is anticipated to see silver prices influenced by both the rebalancing effects and the evolving dynamics of the physical market, particularly in light of U.S. trade policies [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend, which typically sees a decline of 0.3 points over the past decade [1][5][6]. The main driving force behind this increase is the upward shift in the economic center of high-tech manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The absolute economic performance is led by the pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication electronics industries, supported by the upcoming "two new" policies in 2026, which include subsidies for digital and smart products, and vehicle replacement policies [1][9]. - The computer communication electronics sector has maintained a PMI above 52 for five consecutive months, driven by the "AI+" industry trend [1][9]. - Export orders have rebounded, with the textile industry’s export order index rising above 60 and the pharmaceutical industry’s export order index reaching 55 [1][9]. Group 2: Marginal Changes - Industries showing improvement in economic performance include pharmaceuticals, textiles, electrical machinery, petrochemicals, and metal products, with the pharmaceutical sector potentially benefiting from the flu season [2][12]. - The petrochemical industry has stabilized at a low level, with production indicators rising significantly by 15 points, likely due to stabilizing oil prices in late December [2][12]. - The electrical machinery sector's improvement is linked to the continuation of the 2026 "old-for-new" appliance policy and strong demand in the energy storage sector, with the sector's factory price index rising by 4.9 points in December [2][12]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to maintain high levels of economic performance, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its economic index [2][15]. - Among the seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest economic performance, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are in the 50-55 range [15]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction industry has returned to economic expansion after four months, with the real estate sector showing a slight increase of 0.5 points in its index [3][16]. - The construction activity index for civil engineering rose by 1.2 points, driven by the concentrated release of new policy financial tools and favorable construction conditions in southern regions [3][16]. - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to economic expansion [3][17]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index rose by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the performance [3][22]. - The financial services and capital market services sectors have business activity indices above 60, indicating high economic performance [3][22]. - The accommodation and catering services sector showed the lowest performance, declining in line with weak consumer mobility data [3][22].

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in both China and the US has shown a "weak resilience" state since 2023, with China's PMI fluctuating around 49.7 and the US PMI around 48.0, indicating a lack of clear cyclical peaks or troughs [1][3] - In China, the adjustment in the real estate sector and targeted fiscal policies have created a demand environment with both upper and lower limits, leading to a stable manufacturing demand [1] - The diversification of global supply chains has supported export resilience, preventing typical destocking in manufacturing, while financial resources have shifted strategically towards manufacturing, resulting in low-cost supply conditions [1][2] Group 2 - In the US, rising supply chain costs and inflation have constrained economic growth, but a low unemployment rate and strong wage growth have created a positive cycle supporting consumer resilience [3] - High interest rates are limiting investment in interest-sensitive sectors, but fiscal expansion and industrial policies related to re-industrialization are supporting certain emerging manufacturing sectors, leading to a smoothing of the manufacturing cycle [3] - Both economies face structural bottlenecks: China's focus is on increasing household income and consumption rates, while the US aims to enhance supply sustainability and fiscal employment [3] Group 3 - The global stock market has shown a preference for structural recovery, with emerging markets leading and traditional sectors in the US performing well, while tech stocks have seen some pullback [4][5] - The first trading day of the year saw significant gains in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index by 4.38% [4][9] - A notable shift occurred in the US stock market, with industrial, public, and materials sectors moving from declines to gains, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [5] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with gold and silver experiencing volatility, while oil prices were supported by geopolitical factors [7][8] - The London gold price saw a technical rebound after a significant drop, while silver prices showed greater elasticity in recovery [7] - The copper market has also seen fluctuations, with low inventory levels contributing to resilience despite price volatility [7] Group 5 - The exchange rate trends indicate a continued appreciation of the RMB, with the US dollar showing a rebound against other currencies [8] - The bond market has seen rising yields across various countries, with the US 10-year yield increasing to 4.19% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to be low, indicating a sustained easing environment [21][22]

Group 1 - The BPI index from the business community continued to recover in December, reaching 899 points, a 2.4% increase compared to the end of November, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and ongoing narratives in the industry [1][4][5] - The energy index decreased by 4.2% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous metal index increased by 11.4% month-on-month, driven by liquidity premiums in commodities [4][5] - In December, the prices of major commodities showed mixed trends, with rebar and coking coal futures rising by 3.8% and 9.8% respectively, while the spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim fell by 16.8% [9][11] Group 2 - The housing prices in the four first-tier cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index showing declines of -1.0%, -1.9%, -1.1%, and -1.2% for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively [11] - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) rose by 6.0% month-on-month, with battery cells and polysilicon prices leading the increase, while lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 26.2% [2][12] - The export shipping sector saw stable price increases, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 2.2% month-on-month, and significant increases in the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York [14][15] Group 3 - Food prices showed mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork falling by 1.4% month-on-month, while the average wholesale price of seven key monitored fruits increased by 9.7% [18] - The ICPI index, representing non-food items, showed a month-on-month increase to 100.41, indicating a rise in prices for transportation and clothing [20] - The EPMI and PMI data indicated an upward trend in factory price indices, aligning with broader price indicators like the BPI and the Nanhua Composite Index, suggesting an improving economic price trend [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a general decline in various industrial sectors, including power generation, steel production, real estate sales, and consumer goods, indicating a weakening economic environment as of December 2023. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation from coal-fired plants has decreased by 8.5% year-on-year as of December 25, compared to a decline of 7.2% in November, reflecting weak demand during the off-peak season and the impact of a warm winter [1][7] - Industrial operating rates are also showing seasonal weakness, with most sectors, except for downstream automotive tire production, reporting lower year-on-year operating rates [1][7] Group 2: Steel Production - Key steel mills reported a daily average crude steel output decrease of 2.0% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year as of the third week of December [9] - By the fourth week of December, rebar production fell by 10.7% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year, while hot-rolled coil production decreased by 4.6% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - There has been a marginal improvement in the funding availability rate for construction sites, with a 0.15 percentage point increase as of December 23 [11] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt has turned positive month-on-month, increasing by 0.83 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities from December 1 to 30 [15] - Retail sales of passenger cars have also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 17% from December 1 to 28, while wholesale sales fell by 19% [16] Group 5: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - Sales of home appliances remain in negative growth territory, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declining by 48% to 29% year-on-year [17][18] - The production of home appliances is expected to turn positive in January 2024, although there may be disruptions due to the Spring Festival [17][20] Group 6: Port Activity and Trade - Port container throughput remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from December 1 to 28, although the growth rate has slowed compared to November [20] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. has seen a reduced year-on-year decline, indicating some stabilization in trade activities [20]

Core Viewpoint - The overall PMI in December shows a rebound, with manufacturing PMI rising by 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing by 0.7 points to 50.2, indicating a recovery after consecutive declines in October and November [1][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Performance - The composite PMI reached 50.7, up 1.0 points from the previous value, marking a significant rebound after two months of decline [1][4][7]. - December's manufacturing PMI typically experiences a seasonal decline, with the average PMI over the past decade decreasing by 0.3 points during this period; however, this year shows a notable deviation from seasonal trends [1][4]. Group 2: Soft Indicators - Among the three soft indicators, both EPMI and BCI have shown a slowdown, with large enterprises' PMI rebounding by 1.5 points while small enterprises' PMI contracted by 0.5 points, indicating a divergence in economic conditions between large and small firms [8][10]. - The BCI, which is biased towards small and medium enterprises, has declined, while the EPMI's drop may relate to policies emphasizing the development of new productive forces [8][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand components of the PMI have rebounded in a relatively balanced manner, with production and procurement indices rising by 1.7 and 1.6 points, respectively; new orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 and 1.4 points [2][10]. - Business activity expectations also rose by 0.3 points, reflecting positive sentiment in anticipation of supportive policies from the central economic work conference regarding investment, consumption, and real estate [2][10]. Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material purchasing price index slightly decreased from a high level, while the factory price index continued to rise, supporting the notion that "anti-involution" measures are having an effect [2][13]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone for addressing "involution-style competition" by 2026, suggesting ongoing changes in supply-demand relationships and pricing [2][13]. Group 5: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI saw a significant rebound to 52.8 after being below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather conditions and proactive construction efforts ahead of the upcoming holidays [18][19]. - The rebound in the construction sector is also linked to the rollout of policy financial tools in the fourth quarter, which is crucial for maintaining momentum into the March construction season [18][19]. Group 6: Summary of December PMI - The December PMI reflects a seasonal rebound in manufacturing under the guidance of the central economic work conference's policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [22]. - The construction sector's recovery after four months of low performance is attributed to investment stabilization and the impact of previously implemented financial policies [22]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts are contributing to improvements in factory price indices, creating favorable conditions for a strong start in the first quarter of the following year [22].

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy has expanded its coverage and optimized subsidy standards, focusing on enhancing consumer demand and supporting green and intelligent products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy Coverage Expansion - The "Two New" policy now includes subsidies for the installation of elevators in old residential areas, facilities for elderly care, fire rescue, and commercial consumption facilities such as shopping centers and supermarkets [1][6]. - New subsidies for smart products have been introduced, covering smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products, reflecting a shift towards consumer welfare, safety, and intelligent living [1][6]. Group 2: Subsidy Standard Optimization - The subsidy for scrapping old operational trucks will prioritize electric vehicles, and the subsidy for residential elevator updates will be adjusted based on the number of floors [2][7]. - The car subsidy will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, which may reduce the subsidy for lower-priced cars compared to 2025 [2][7]. - The energy efficiency standards for household appliances have been tightened, with the subsidy for first-level energy-efficient products reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per item decreased from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [2][7]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanism Improvement - The policy aims to lower the investment threshold for applications and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide to ensure consistency and combat fraudulent claims [3][9]. - A pre-allocation system for subsidy funds will be established to alleviate the financial burden on enterprises [3][9]. Group 4: Future Funding and Policy Outlook - The first batch of special government bonds for the "old-for-new" program in 2026 has been expedited, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated, indicating a focus on quicker policy effectiveness [4][11]. - The total funding for the "old-for-new" program in 2026 is expected to be around 250 billion yuan, slightly lower than in 2025, reflecting a potential shift towards service consumption [4][11]. - The overall subsidy structure remains robust, providing a foundational guarantee for consumer spending in the coming year, despite anticipated slower growth in demand [4][11].