Group 1 - The article highlights a rapid rebound in shipping volumes between China and the US in early June, attributed to the easing of tariffs on May 12, leading to a more than 25% increase in container ship departures compared to the last week of May, with an average of 59.1 departures [3] - South Korea's exports showed a significant recovery in early June, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, a notable improvement from the -23.8% recorded in May, driven by a low base last year and better performance in major regions [5][6] - The real estate market remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 5.9% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities during the first half of June, indicating limited recovery [9] Group 2 - The automotive market experienced a year-on-year increase in sales, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 343,000 units in early June, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year, while wholesale figures also showed a 10% increase [12][13] - New energy vehicles performed exceptionally well, with retail sales reaching 202,000 units in early June, marking a 40% year-on-year growth and a market penetration rate of 58.8% [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of the relationship between Trump and Musk, highlighting their initial close alliance and subsequent public fallout due to ideological differences and personal conflicts [4][5][7] - Musk's role in the Trump administration was initially seen as pivotal, addressing key economic issues like inflation and national debt, but conflicts over tariffs and fiscal policies led to a gradual deterioration of their relationship [3][6][8] - The article emphasizes that the breakdown of their partnership was not sudden but rather a result of systemic erosion of trust and influence, driven by policy decisions that conflicted with Musk's business philosophy [7][8] Group 2 - The "DOGE" initiative, which aimed for significant budget cuts, achieved approximately $175 billion in spending reductions during Musk's tenure, representing 8.75% of the $2 trillion target [11] - Despite these achievements, the article notes that the entrenched structural resistance within the U.S. government limits the effectiveness of top-down reforms like those attempted by Musk [11][14] - The article suggests that the future of "DOGE" may transition into a more systematic and institutionalized phase under Trump's leadership, focusing on fiscal sustainability and efficiency improvements [15][16] Group 3 - The article critiques the systemic inefficiencies of the U.S. government, attributing them to a culture of over-regulation that fosters a compliance-driven mentality among civil servants, which ultimately hampers effective governance [12][14] - Examples of inefficiencies, such as the prolonged delays in major projects like the California high-speed rail and the new Air Force One, illustrate the challenges faced in government operations [13] - The article posits that for "DOGE" to succeed, it must address these deep-rooted structural issues rather than merely implementing superficial cost-cutting measures [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the misjudgment of Wall Street regarding Trump's economic policies, particularly the "TACO" trade, which underestimated his commitment to fiscal tightening and debt sustainability [17][18] - It highlights the potential for Trump's future policies to diverge from market expectations, particularly if he pursues aggressive spending cuts alongside tax reductions, which could lead to economic recession [18] - The overarching narrative suggests that Trump's fiscal strategies are aimed at ensuring long-term financial health and maintaining the global status of the U.S. dollar, despite short-term economic pain [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a systematic and gradual weakening rather than a clear segmentation of inflation followed by stagnation, with increasing risks of non-farm payroll declines [1][8][37] - Recent economic data changes in the U.S. are not keeping pace with asset price fluctuations and macro narratives, indicating a divergence between hard and soft data [3][5] - The negative impacts of various non-tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident, contributing to the suppression of U.S. economic growth [5][8] Group 2 - The rate and potential magnitude of inflation are declining, with the U.S. CPI readings falling short of expectations for four consecutive months [9][11] - There is no significant inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors, and the demand-side weakness is likely to impose stronger price constraints [11][13] - Concerns about stagnation are rising as labor market data shows signs of weakening, despite stable non-farm employment figures [16][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to be the first to reflect the weakening of the U.S. economy, with signs of declining consumer willingness [27][28] - The structure of disposable income growth is unhealthy, with a significant portion coming from government welfare rather than labor income [29][33] - The overall consumption willingness is decreasing, which will further suppress service consumption levels [37]

《意见》进一步落实了二十届三中全会在城镇化和民生领域的改革部署 。核心思想是通过结构性改 革，推动基本公共服务与户籍脱钩、与人口挂钩，促进政府增加对基本公共服务的投入，减轻消费潜力 最大的中低收入群体，尤其是灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员在养老、教育、医疗、住房等领 域的负担，提升其消费能力和意愿。 外部环境相对缓和之后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革有望再提速。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期改革信号释放加快，反映出外部环境相对缓和后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革 进程有望再提速。 6月9日中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（下文简 称"《意见》）。 值得注意的是， 《意见》的成文时间为3月2日，但公布时间为6月9日 ，可能是因 为4-5月的关税密集冲击造成外部不确定性上升，延缓了落实深化改革的政策节奏。 除《意见》外，近期在消费政策方面，更强调完善促消费的长效机制。 6月8日经济日报《金观平：持 续完善促消费长效机制》中提到，"要用好考核'指挥棒'，建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系，引导地 方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of previous policies are gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales in China [2] - In the first week of June, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 20.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with significant declines in first- and second-tier cities [2] - The average daily sales area of second-hand houses in 11 sample cities was 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters, although the transaction share of second-hand houses has rebounded [2] Group 2 - Domestic price pressures continue, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices [3][4] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in May, with gasoline prices decreasing by 3.8% [3] - Agricultural product prices remained stable with a slight decline, with month-on-month decreases ranging from 0.3% to 1.0% [5] Group 3 - In May, automobile retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, while wholesale sales rose by 14% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating resilience in the automotive market [9] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 14%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [10] - Despite maintaining sales resilience, automobile prices showed weakness, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% in May, up from 23.7% in April [10] Group 4 - The funding chain for construction projects has shown improvement, with the funding availability rate for sample construction sites reaching 59.13% as of June 3, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.26 percentage points [11][14] - Non-residential construction projects saw an increase of 0.53 percentage points, while residential construction projects experienced a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [14] - The improvement in funding availability aligns with some upstream production data, such as a cement clinker capacity utilization rate of 61.0% and an increase in the operating rate of asphalt plants to 31.3% [14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., the average tariff rate on Chinese goods remains high at around 42%, with significant portions of goods facing rates as high as 57% [2][3] Tariff Analysis - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China is approximately 42%, with 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5% and 32% facing around 57% [2] - The breakdown of tariffs includes: - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff: 36,011,281 (7.78%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (1-3): 146,373,663 (31.64%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (4): 187,165,284 (40.46%) - Other categories account for 123,359,456 (26.66%) [3] Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff easing in May, there has been a recovery in direct trade between China and the U.S., with indices for the CCFI West and East routes increasing by 21% and 23% respectively [4] - However, the number of container ships from China to the U.S. showed weak performance in late May, indicating a time lag in the recovery process [4] Import Trends - The U.S. has been "rushing imports" since November last year, with approximately $220 billion worth of goods imported from November 2024 to March 2025, equivalent to one month’s import volume prior to this period [7] - As inventory levels rise and shipping costs increase, U.S. import demand has started to decline, with the growth rate of goods imports dropping from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April [7] Export Orders - The PMI export order index for China in May and the number of container ships heading to the U.S. in early June suggest that the momentum for "rushing exports 2.0" may be starting to wane [7]

Core Viewpoint - The status of US Treasury bonds as a "pricing anchor" is declining, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies, leading to a global rebalancing towards non-US and alternative assets [1][18]. Group 1: Concerns Over US Treasury Bonds - The long-term issues with US Treasury bonds stem from concerns about both demand and supply, influenced by changes in dollar credit and expectations of potential bond issuance due to fiscal deficits [3][4]. - The contribution of tariff revenues to US fiscal income is minimal, with tariffs projected to account for only 1.6% of total fiscal revenue in 2024, while net interest expenses have risen significantly [6][9]. - The perception of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven is eroding due to geopolitical tensions and the use of dollar and Treasury bonds as negotiation tools in trade discussions [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Domestic Policies - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, potentially adding $3 trillion over ten years, which could exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand for Treasury bonds [13][18]. - The Trump administration's spending cuts have fallen short of targets, with only $175 billion cut against a goal of $2 trillion, indicating a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline [15][18]. Group 3: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The current US administration's departure from traditional values and geopolitical alliances undermines the foundational credibility of the dollar, which relies on trust in US technological and military superiority [16][17]. - Recent challenges to US technological and military dominance could significantly impact the dollar's strength and the sustainability of its fiscal and current account deficits [17][18]. Group 4: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The decline in the status of US Treasury bonds as a pricing anchor has led to a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, with a notable shift from the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to alternatives like gold and cryptocurrencies [20][24]. - Global funds are increasingly diversifying into non-US assets, with central banks raising their gold reserves significantly, indicating a trend towards alternative asset classes [24][26]. - The performance of alternative assets has outpaced traditional stock-bond combinations, with gold and Bitcoin showing substantial gains in 2025 [26][24].

老二手房类似"红利股"，次新房类似"高估值价值股"， 老现房类似"伪成长股"，压力最 大，新好房类似"成长股"，是推动新房价格回升的主要力量。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 目前百城住宅租金价格环比跌幅有所收窄，5月上海、广州住宅租金环比回升，北京、深圳环比回落； 30个二线城市中，住宅租金环比上涨、持平和下跌的城市分别为16个、1个和13个；成都、天津、武 汉、乌鲁木齐的租金比较坚挺。 当前中国人均住房面积已超过40平方米，与发达国家相当，房地产的功能不再仅仅是满足居民基本居 住需求，还带有改善性目的，从"有房住"向"住得好"转变，房子的估值逻辑也在发生变化。 一、大多数房产 终将成为"价值股" 随着市场的逐步成熟与稳定，大部分房产会逐渐演变为"价值股"，稳定、低估值且有一定的租金回报 率。 少数优质的房产，凭借其独特的品质，可能暂时成为"成长股"，但这类房产终究是少数。 租售比是房产的PE，租金是房产的EPS，租售比（租金回报率）决定了房产作为投资品的性价比。 目 前 百 城 租 金 回 报 率 在 2.3%-2.4% ， 从 投 资 角 度 看 ， 租 金 回 报 率 的 合 理 区 间 应 该 在 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds accelerated in May, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan issued, bringing the net financing scale to 6.4 trillion yuan by the end of May, achieving a progress rate of 46.1% [5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of bonds includes: general government bonds at 39.4%, special government bonds at 42.1%, new special bonds at 37.1%, special refinancing bonds at 81.5%, and new general bonds at 43.9% [5] Group 2 - The consumption of old-for-new products accelerated in May, driven by pre-promotional policies for the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories [7] - The estimated usage of funds for the "old-for-new" program by the end of May is between 143.9 billion to 163.2 billion yuan, nearing the allocated scale for the program [7] Group 3 - China's export rebound in May may be temporary, as mid-May port import data showed a recovery linked to increased export container bookings due to improved China-US trade relations, but the sustainability of this rebound is limited [10] - Container ship departures from China to the US decreased by 22.6% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year in May, indicating potential challenges ahead [10] Group 4 - South Korea experienced a negative export growth of 1.3% in May, marking the first decline in four months, with decreases noted across exports to ASEAN, the US, China, and Japan [12] - Despite the overall decline, the Bank of Korea reported a slight increase of 1% in daily average exports when accounting for working days in May, suggesting some resilience in the export sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery and trends in service consumption in China, highlighting the differences between service and goods consumption growth, as well as the performance of various sectors within service consumption. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a strong rebound for about a year, with a notable increase in growth rates for service retail compared to goods retail. In 2023, service retail grew by 20%, significantly outpacing the 5.8% growth in goods retail. In 2024, service retail is expected to grow by 6.2%, exceeding goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [2]. - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2024 has contributed to a sustained increase in goods consumption growth, with an estimated 1.5 percentage points increase in consumption driven by this policy [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Recovery - The fastest recovery within service consumption is observed in cultural entertainment and dining services, with 2023 year-on-year growth rates of 39.2% and 27.6%, respectively. Their share of cash consumption increased from 3% and 7.5% in 2022 to 3.7% and 8.7% in 2023 [5]. - In 2024, the growth rates for cultural entertainment and dining services are projected to be 10.6% and 8.4%, with their shares of cash consumption rising to 3.9% and 8.9% [5]. Group 3: Urban vs. Rural Consumption - Urban residents have shown a faster recovery in tourism consumption compared to rural residents, with tourism numbers and income recovering to 97.7% and 103.8% of 2019 levels, respectively, while rural residents lag at 81.4% and 84.7% [10]. - Rural residents are more inclined to spend on food, clothing, and daily necessities, with spending growth rates in these categories exceeding those of urban residents in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Seasonal Consumption Patterns - Tourism consumption exhibits a clear holiday concentration, with the proportion of total tourism numbers and income during major holidays like May Day and National Day remaining above pre-pandemic levels, despite a slight decrease from 2020 [11]. Group 5: Per Capita Spending Trends - Per capita tourism spending rapidly recovered to 90% of 2019 levels in 2023 but has since plateaued, indicating a stabilization phase in consumer spending patterns [12]. Group 6: Dining Consumption Insights - There is a notable disparity in growth rates between dining consumption in different market segments, with lower-tier dining establishments experiencing a 6.3% growth compared to just 3% for higher-tier establishments in 2024 [16]. - The performance of dining companies varies significantly based on their market focus, with those operating in lower-tier cities showing substantial profit growth, while those in higher-tier cities face declines [18].