Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy of "buying primary assets in the secondary market," which is a value investment approach that can yield excess returns by identifying undervalued stocks that exhibit characteristics of primary market investments [2][5]. Group 1: Concept of "Buying Primary Assets in the Secondary Market" - The primary market serves as a "incubation ground" for capital, where investors support companies' growth from inception, while the secondary market acts as a "trading venue" where stock prices can be distorted by emotions and external factors [4][5]. - This strategy involves identifying companies engaged in value-creating activities such as technological research, mergers and acquisitions, and market expansion, but whose stock prices do not yet reflect their long-term value [5][6]. Group 2: Identifying Investment Opportunities - Key indicators for identifying suitable investments include significant asset restructuring, major technological breakthroughs, and the exploration of new business avenues [7]. - Investors should be cautious of "hype-driven" stocks that lack substantial investment in genuine growth initiatives, distinguishing between companies with real financial commitments and those merely riding trends [7]. Group 3: Market Mispricing and Management Insight - Look for stocks with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios below 70% of the industry average or market capitalizations below their replacement costs, as these may indicate mispricing [8]. - Assess management's "primary market thinking" by examining their professional backgrounds and the proportion of shares they hold, with a higher ownership stake (over 30%) suggesting stronger alignment of interests [9]. Group 4: Conclusion and Investment Philosophy - The essence of the primary market is "value discovery," while the secondary market offers opportunities for "price negotiation." The intersection of these two aspects can lead to excess returns [11]. - When observing a company investing heavily in research and development or acquiring assets at low prices while its stock price declines, it may present an opportunity to "buy primary assets in the secondary market" [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the Chinese liquor market, particularly focusing on different price segments and the strengths of various brands within those segments [2][3][4][5]. Price Segments Summary - **Below 100 Yuan**: Dominated by brands like Lao Bofeng and Erguotou, with Erguotou having an advantage due to brand strength. Clear aroma liquor has a natural advantage in the low-end market, while sauce aroma liquor is more costly to produce [2]. - **100-200 Yuan**: Currently led by Hai Zhi Lan, with no strong competitors from other brands. Despite market challenges, Hai Zhi Lan maintains significant sales, indicating consumer preference [2]. - **200-300 Yuan**: This segment is primarily controlled by Wuliangchun, with limited competition from other brands. The price point serves as a benchmark for quality, making it difficult for others to compete effectively [3]. - **400-500 Yuan**: A critical competitive zone where brands like Fen 20 and various others vie for market share. This price range is characterized by strong brand presence and quality offerings [3]. - **600-700 Yuan**: Represents a transition between mid-range and high-end products. Brands like Moutai 1935 and Langjiu are notable players, but the segment faces challenges due to high-end product dominance [4]. - **800-900 Yuan**: This price range lacks strong sales figures and is seen as awkward due to its proximity to high-end products. Many brands have shifted to lower price segments due to market conditions [4]. - **1000 Yuan and Above**: This segment is dominated by well-known brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, with clear aroma liquor having no significant presence. The ultra-high-end market is characterized by premium products that are highly sought after [5]. - **2000 Yuan and Above**: Represents the ultra-high-end market, where products like Moutai's premium offerings are positioned. The quality perception does not always align with the price, leading to market skepticism [5]. - **General Price Band Classification**: The classification of low, mid, high, and ultra-high-end price bands is based on the author's personal understanding rather than industry standards [6].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大地任我行 来源：雪球 六 、 拿到公司分红 ， 就可以用于生活 ， 也可以用于再投资 ， 从而带来投资组合的成长 ， 这样就能弥补企业盈利增长率低的缺点 。 七 、 注重股息的投资生活比纯粹追逐资本利得的投资方法更淡定 ， 更平静 ， 有更多的时间 做其他的事情 ， 这样的生活才是我所追求的 。 在我19年的投资生活中 ， 从来都是重仓持有 股票 ， 没有空仓或减仓持有现金 ， 收益率也挺满意的 。 当然 ， 这些年运气不错 ， 投资离 不开努力 ， 更需要一点运气 。 买入高股息公司要注意的陷阱有 ： 高分红能不能持续 ？ 将来会不会大幅倒退 ？ 是不是强周 期行业 ？ 是不是出于炒作 ， 然后高位套现 ？ 一 、 高成长也意味高估值 ， 或者成长早体现在股价上面了 ， 所以买入这类公司潜在的收益 不一定高 ， 只要成长预期不及 ， 就有双杀的风险 。 二 、 投资要注重确定性 ， " 一鸟在手 ， 胜过两鸟在林 " ， 走向成熟也意味确定性高许多 。 这个道理就像从创业者和现成的企业家中挑选未来的富翁 。 看看 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 东安湖xiaohu 来源：雪球 端午节 ， 晚上和家人亲戚喝了点酒 ， 想说的其实早就在构思 ， 只是趁着酒劲晕乎乎的写了出 来 。 一是深刻剖析自己 ， 二是自己淋过雨 ， 也想为他人撑把伞 。 希望写的东西能让很多人 看到 ， 前事不忘 ， 后事之师 。 一 、 故事梗概 " 小镇做题家 " ， 211本科 ， 985硕士 ， 体制内 （ GWY ） ， 1 ： 7杠杆 （ 自己存款 30W+父母给的38W+XFD45w+最高融资账号100W＋ ） ， 炒股亏损25W ， 父母痛心 ， 暂离 股市 。 二 、 初进股市 记得我初进股市还是我读研的时候 ， 时间大概在2019年 ， 当时没多少钱 ， 就买了几千块 ， 然后就一直放着不动 ， 也没过多关注 ， 当时也没想在股市赚啥钱 ， 纯粹就是想着要懂得理财 投资 ， 买的股也是蓝筹股华能水电 ， 毕竟自己专业相关 ， 买了水电股 。 后面的确没咋关注 ， 也忘记是何时卖的 ， 没有亏钱 。 三、 工作后逐渐加钱 疫情期间 ， 加上自己能力有限 ， 趁着东风 ， ...

美股全线收涨，周五公布的美国 5 月非农就业数据超预期。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应当降息，应将利率下调整整一个百分点。 01 美股全线收涨 大型科技股普遍上涨 截至收盘，道指涨 1.05%，标普 500 指数涨 1.03%， 纳指涨 1.2%。 大型科技股全线上涨，特斯拉涨逾 3% ，谷歌涨逾 3% ，亚马逊涨近 3% ，脸书涨近 2% ，苹果涨逾 1% ，英伟达涨逾 1% ，微软涨 0.58% | 含歌Ａ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOOGL 已收盘06-06 16:00:00 美东 | | | | 173.68 +5.47 +3.25% | | 14.75万人加自选 === > US 融 空 期 LO | | 高 174.50 开 170.83 | 量 3573.18万股 | 总市值 2.11万亿 | | 低 170.83 换 0.29% | 额 61.84亿 | 市盈TTM 18.99 | | 期权 成交量54.61万张 未平仓数354.53万张 | | | | 盘后 173.70 +0.02 +0.01% | | 19:59:51 美东时间 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment psychology, setting realistic expectations, and maintaining a disciplined approach to investing, encapsulated in the "three-thirds" framework: three parts humility, three parts planning, and three parts persistence [26]. Group 1: Understanding Investment Psychology - Investors often face a knowledge gap in finance, leading to impulsive decisions driven by market emotions, which can result in significant losses [5][6]. - Acknowledging one's limitations and setting modest return expectations is crucial for sustainable investing, focusing on wealth preservation and inflation-beating growth rather than quick riches [7][8]. Group 2: Setting Realistic Return Expectations - Long-term average returns for various asset classes are outlined: stocks yield 8%-10%, bonds yield 3%-5%, and commodities/gold yield around 5%-6% [8]. - A diversified portfolio can achieve a composite return of 6%-8%, while a well-informed investor might target 10%-15% returns through index investing and global perspectives [8][9]. Group 3: Risk Management and Asset Allocation - Understanding potential drawdowns is essential, with stocks facing maximum drawdowns of 70%-80%, while bonds and commodities have lower but significant risks [10]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, can mitigate risks and enhance stability [11]. Group 4: Building a Robust Investment Plan - A comprehensive investment framework should consider asset classes, market distribution, and timing to manage human emotions like greed and fear [12][13]. - Diversification across asset types, markets, and time can reduce correlation and overall portfolio volatility, leading to more stable returns [15][16][17]. Group 5: Importance of Persistence - Successful investing requires not just a sound strategy but also the discipline to adhere to it over time, especially during market fluctuations [21]. - Maintaining a focus on safety margins, long-term engagement, and sticking to profit-taking goals is vital for achieving investment success [22][23][24]. Group 6: Conclusion - The "three-thirds" framework serves as a foundational guideline for investors, emphasizing humility, planning, and persistence, with a final note on the role of luck in investment success [26][27].

以下文章来源于量化投资 ，作者十拳剑 量化投资 . 百万滚到千万的实盘分享与思考，不定期分享资产配置研究： 1.广度上通过爬虫定期对全市场所有公募 基金进行自动数据获取、存储； 2.深度上计算时间序列特征、协方差矩阵；3.分别锚定2%和10%波动 率，求解最大回报率下的配置方案。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 十拳剑灵 来源：雪球 本文将展示一个魔法： 基本数据 首先，历史数据分析表明，黄金和微盘股策略之间几乎是0相关性的，为大类资产配置提供了很好 的素材。 这两种资产也一直是 $十拳剑灵活配置$ 这个组合的重要组成部分。 再看两类典型基金的波动率数据， 国泰黄金ETF联接A 的近三年波动率为12.21。 1+2<1 将黄金与高波动的微盘基金组合，波动率更低、收益率几乎不变。 也就是说，可以利用相关性实现收益不变的同时降低波动率。 回测基于雪球的三分法工具，对比了100%纯黄金组合与黄金+微盘： 微盘股基金 中信保诚多策略混合(LOF)A 的近三年波动率24.85%，约为黄金的2倍。 最优配置比例 理论上可以证明，将两个基金按照4:1的比例配置， ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the three major indices slightly declining. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.48%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 746.7 billion, an increase of 32.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, silver, military industry, and agricultural chemical products saw significant gains, while sectors such as football concepts, beauty care, IP economy, and pet economy experienced notable declines [2]. Tesla Stock Impact - The public feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump led to a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, which fell by 14.26%, resulting in a market value loss of over 150 billion [3][8]. Silver Market Surge - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with silver leading the gains. Notable stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous reached their daily limit, while others like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources increased by over 5%. On June 5, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, the highest level since February 2012. Analysts suggest that silver's industrial demand and potential trade protection measures from the U.S. government could drive further price increases [13][17]. Military Industry Activity - Military stocks experienced a notable rally, with companies like Qifeng Precision and Huawu Co. rising over 10%. The Indonesian government's evaluation of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets could have broader implications for regional military trade dynamics, potentially influencing countries like Thailand and Malaysia to consider similar acquisitions. Analysts believe that China's military trade capabilities and potential will elevate the defense industry's prospects [18][20].

A股方面，医药股集体调整；苏超持续火爆，金陵体育收获3个20%涨停，共创草坪4连板；兵装重组概念涨幅位居两市第一，建设工业、东安动力 涨停。 港股新消费三宝，泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团集体跳水。 截至收盘 ， 沪指涨0.23% ， 深成指涨0.58% ， 创业板指涨1.17% ，全市场成交额13170亿元 ， 较上日放量1395亿元 。 全市场2600只个股 上涨。 01 新消费三宝 集体跳水 港股新消费迎来大跌，老铺黄金跳水，蜜雪集团杀跌，泡泡玛特亦在创下新高之后快速回落。截至发稿，老铺黄金跌9%，蜜雪集团跌7%，泡泡玛 特跌1%。 近期，新消费涨幅巨大，此前老铺黄金涨幅已达23倍，泡泡玛特过去两年半时间从每股8.6港元附近飙升到256港元，今年以来涨幅惊人。一时 间，新消费取代茅台的声音不绝于耳。然而，从估值来看，泡泡玛特的市盈率（TTM）已达96倍，老铺黄金更达99倍，蜜雪集团亦达46倍，实属 不低。 这次，这些股票杀跌，其实也有流动性的原因。近期，市场虽然不断上行，但成交量并没有有效放大。这意味着，其中存量博弈的成分还是比较 高。建银国际研究报告指出，香港市场流动性指数过去一个月下滑，支持指数的是更 ...

以下文章来源于量化投资 ，作者十拳剑 量化投资 . 百万滚到千万的实盘分享与思考，不定期分享资产配置研究： 1.广度上通过爬虫定期对全市场所有公募基金进行自 动数据获取、存储； 2.深度上计算时间序列特征、协方差矩阵；3.分别锚定2%和10%波动率，求解最大回报率下的 配置方案。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 十拳剑灵 来源：雪球 现代资产配置理论中 ， " 固定整体波动率 ， 分配各类资产波动率暴露以最大化收益率和夏普率 "的底层逻 辑 ， 源自对组合效率的极致追求 。 其核心是通过三个步骤重构投资范式 。 这篇文章以雪球的 " 三分法 " 工具回测对比三种策略 ： | 全部 B | 子账户 | | + 创建 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯长债 | | 日收益(05-27) | | 累计收益 | | 0.00 | | 0.00 | | 0.00 | | 占总资产 0.00% | | | | | | 短债固收加 | | 日收益(05-27) | | 累计收益 | | 0.00 | | 0.00 | ...