Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of holding onto quality stocks for the long term, despite short-term price fluctuations, using examples of successful investors who have achieved significant returns by maintaining their positions during downturns [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Successful investors like Lin Yuan, Warren Buffett, and Duan Yongping have demonstrated the value of patience and conviction in their investments, often enduring significant drawdowns before realizing substantial gains [3][4]. - The article highlights the experience of Xu Xin, who held onto her investment in NetEase despite a 70-fold drop in value, ultimately selling for a tenfold profit [4]. Group 2: Recent Market Observations - The stock of Xinlianxin Fertilizer has shown strong performance due to several favorable factors, including a significant increase in second-quarter earnings, a rise in high-efficiency fertilizer sales, and improved gross margins [6]. - The company has optimized its short-term debt structure, with over 90% of loans maturing within a year being eligible for refinancing, leading to a reduction in financing costs by 0.8%, saving approximately 36 million [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about Xinlianxin Fertilizer, with multiple institutions rating the stock between 8-9 HKD, corresponding to a six-fold price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [6]. - The article suggests that holding undervalued consumer sector leaders in various industries, such as snacks, dairy, fertilizers, e-commerce, and jewelry, is a safer investment strategy in a volatile market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investment is based on future expectations, while valuation is a retrospective indicator, making investment decisions based solely on valuation highly limited [3]. Group 1: Valuation and Index Performance - Comparing valuation growth with index growth provides significant insights into the health of index increases and whether they are driven by earnings or valuation [4][5]. - If valuation growth closely matches index growth, the increase is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings [6]. - A situation where valuation growth exceeds index growth indicates that the index's rise is entirely driven by valuation, often accompanied by negative earnings growth [6][7]. - Conversely, if valuation growth is smaller than index growth, the increase is primarily driven by earnings, which is considered a healthier and more sustainable rise [7]. Group 2: Recent Index Performance Analysis - Since September 24 of the previous year, major A-share indices have seen increases primarily driven by valuation growth, with significant contributions from indices like the Dividend Low Volatility and the CSI 500, where valuation growth greatly exceeded index growth [9][10]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices have experienced increases primarily driven by earnings growth, with minimal valuation changes [10][11]. Group 3: Phase-by-Phase Index Performance - An analysis of index performance from September 24 to April 30 shows that A-share indices like the CSI 500 and Dividend Low Volatility were entirely driven by valuation growth, with earnings showing negative growth [12][14]. - From April 30 to August 29, A-share indices continued to see increases primarily driven by valuation growth, while the Hang Seng Technology indices experienced increases largely driven by earnings [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Viability - A review of the health of index increases and historical valuation percentiles indicates that most A-share indices are at high valuation levels, suggesting that further investment may not be supported by retrospective indicators [21][22]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices are at significantly undervalued positions, indicating better investment potential due to their earnings-driven growth [23][24]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are at high valuation levels, with recent performance primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of their growth [25][26].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index leading the drop, falling over 6%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% and the ChiNext Index dropped 4.25% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3,000 stocks declining [2] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks showed resilience, with companies like Guoguang Chain hitting the daily limit, and Agricultural Bank of China reaching a historical high. Solar energy and energy storage stocks also surged, with An Cai High-Tech hitting the daily limit [3][17] - In contrast, computing hardware and semiconductor stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Cambrian Technology and New Yisheng dropping over 10% [4][5] Chip Sector Analysis - Cambrian Technology saw a sharp decline of over 14%, closing at 1,202 yuan per share, with a total trading volume exceeding 28 billion yuan [5] - The recent adjustment of the STAR 50 Index by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co. may lead to selling pressure on Cambrian Technology, with an estimated outflow of around 10 billion yuan from index funds [6][9] CPO Concept Stocks - On September 4, CPO (光模块) and related stocks experienced a significant pullback, with New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang dropping over 15% [11][13] - The recent quarterly review by FTSE Russell included companies like BeiGene and New Yisheng, while removing others, indicating a shift in market focus [15] Solar and Energy Storage Sector - The solar energy sector continued to perform well, with An Cai High-Tech and other companies seeing substantial gains. CPIA forecasts that global new solar installations could exceed 570-630 GW by 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13% [18][20] - The solar glass market is also experiencing price increases, which may lead to improved profitability for leading companies in the sector [21] Banking Sector - Banking stocks showed a positive trend, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 5%, and other banks like Postal Savings Bank and CITIC Bank also seeing gains [22][25]

Group 1 - The article introduces key investment terms to help beginners understand fund investment better [4][5][7][10][11][15][16][18]. - "Left-side trading" refers to buying undervalued assets before a price increase occurs [4][5]. - "Right-side trading" involves waiting for a clear upward trend before making a purchase, acknowledging potential hidden risks [7]. - "Maximum drawdown" measures the largest decline from a peak to a trough during a specific period, indicating the worst-case scenario for investors [8]. - "Sharpe ratio" assesses the risk-adjusted return of a fund, with a higher ratio indicating better performance relative to risk [10][11][12]. - "Bullish/Bearish" sentiment is influenced by new policies or technological breakthroughs, leading to increased buying or selling pressure [15][16]. - "Valuation percentile" helps determine whether a fund's current price is high or low compared to its historical valuation [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish sentiment in the A-share market, highlighting the acceleration of market gains in August and the contrasting performance of the Hong Kong stock market. It emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the reasons behind investors missing out on opportunities during a bull market [4][5]. Market Performance - In August, the A-share market showed signs of accelerated growth, with the Wind All A index and the CSI 300 index rising by 10.93% and 10.33% respectively. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index only increased by 1.23% and 4.06% [4]. - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.01%, while the Wind All A index has increased by 22.98%, indicating a narrowing gap in performance [4]. Reasons for Missing Opportunities - For amateur investors, a lack of continuous attention to the stock market leads to missing out on opportunities, which is understandable given their focus on other careers [7]. - Professional investors experience significant frustration when they miss out on gains, especially when they see others profiting. This feeling can be more intense than losses during a bear market [7][8]. Key Reasons for Missing Out - The first reason is the "death of the bull's heart," where investors, conditioned by previous bear markets, perceive early market recoveries as mere rebounds and avoid participation [9][11]. - The second reason is the lack of thorough research and preparation regarding specific stocks or industries, leading to uncertainty about where to invest [12][14]. Strategies for Adjustments - Investors need to broaden their understanding of market adjustments, which can take various forms beyond significant declines in broad indices. Style rotation is also a crucial aspect of market adjustments [15][16]. - It is essential to differentiate between interest in broad indices and specific companies or industries, as their performances may not always align [17]. Investment Approach - The article suggests that during a bull market, it is unwise to remain in cash waiting for adjustments. Instead, investors should maintain a high level of engagement and look for opportunities in undervalued sectors [19][20]. - The current market is described as healthy, with a potential for adjustments, but no signs of a bear market reversal are evident [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The private equity fund industry has seen significant growth over the past decade, with its management scale increasing from 1.73 trillion to over 3 times that amount, indicating a strong demand and interest in this investment category [2]. Group 1: Growth of Private Equity - Ten years ago, there were only 21 private equity firms with over 10 billion in assets, while today that number has increased to 81 [4]. - Despite the high entry barriers for ordinary investors, private equity continues to attract attention and favor due to its flexibility [6]. Group 2: Flexibility of Private Equity - Private equity funds are highly flexible, catering to diverse and personalized investment needs, contrasting with public funds which are more standardized [8]. - The flexibility of private equity is attributed to several key "superpowers" [13]. Group 3: Key Advantages of Private Equity - **Flexible Positioning**: Unlike public funds, which have strict position limits (minimum 80% in stocks), private equity funds can adjust their positions freely, allowing for better performance in volatile or bear markets [15]. - **Broader Investment Scope**: Private equity funds can invest in a wider range of assets, including commodities and foreign exchange, beyond just stocks and bonds [19]. - **Use of Financial Derivatives**: Private equity funds can utilize various financial derivatives, which are often restricted for public funds, allowing for more complex strategies such as hedging and short selling [23]. - **Leverage Investment**: Private equity funds commonly use leverage, enhancing capital efficiency by borrowing to invest, which is less common in public funds [32].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数跌1.16%，深证成指跌0.65%，创业板涨0.95%。 全市场成交额23957亿元，较上日缩量5167亿元。全市场超4500只个股下跌。 板块题材上，光伏设备、游戏、贵金属板块涨幅居前；军工装备、证券、商业航天、乳业、稀土永磁板块跌幅居前。 01 A股继续调整，军工和券商板块领跌 随着指数的回调，前期涨幅较多的军工板块和券商板块在今天也迎来了调整。个股方面，军工板块的北方长龙20cm跌停，长城军工10cm跌停，中 航成飞跌14.34%；券商板块的国盛金控接近跌停，太平洋、湘财股份、中银证券跌幅居前。 | 中航成飞 | 90.99 | -14.34% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SZ302132 | | | | | 恒宇信通 | 65.96 | -13.66% | 111.61 | | SZ300965 | | | | | 中无人机 | 50.00 | -13.42% | 2076.82 | | SH688297 | | | | | 航天南湖 | 35.73 | -13.38% | 850.76 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a balanced stock-bond allocation strategy to navigate market fluctuations and achieve stable long-term returns, particularly in the context of the current market conditions where valuations are approaching high levels [5][9][29]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Balance - The stock-bond balance strategy, first proposed by Benjamin Graham, aims to construct a portfolio using low-correlated assets to mitigate overall volatility while achieving average market returns [8]. - Historical data from 2005 to 2022 shows that different stock-bond allocations yield varying returns and risks, highlighting the need for investors to understand their own risk tolerance when determining their allocation [14][16]. Group 2: Allocation Strategies - Fixed Method: This method suggests maintaining a 50:50 stock-bond ratio, with periodic rebalancing to keep the allocation balanced as market conditions change [19][20]. - Dynamic Method: This approach allows for a more flexible allocation, keeping stock exposure between 30% and 70%, adjusting based on market valuations to optimize returns [21][22]. - Age-Based Method: This strategy recommends adjusting equity exposure based on age, with younger investors taking on more risk and older investors favoring bonds to reduce volatility [26][28]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The current market environment, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and valuations nearing 60°C, presents both opportunities and challenges for investors [5][29]. - Investors often struggle with emotional decision-making, leading to a cycle of chasing gains and fearing losses, which can be mitigated through disciplined adherence to a balanced allocation strategy [5][9].

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将 经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 我之前文章中多次说过，希望牛市来，但不希望牛市乱来。言下之意，就是希望股市能够汲取之前大起大落的教训，涨慢一点，持续时间长点，形 成市场参与者多方共赢的长牛、慢牛。 但目前的股市运行节奏却大有快牛的趋势。刚刚结束的8月份，创业板指和科创50分别上涨24%和28%，中证全指、沪深300、中证A500分别上涨 10.74%、10.33%和11.62%。 "快涨赚快钱"打破了我们内心深处对财富获取方式的固有认知 从小到大，我们接受的观念都是 "一分耕耘，一分收获"，投资的本质，是上市公司不断创造财富的过程，收益与付出成正比、与时间相挂钩的认 知，早已成为深入骨髓的思维定式 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component down 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.85% [2] - Market activity remained high, with a total trading volume of 2.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the 15th consecutive day above 2 trillion yuan [2] Sector Performance Declining Sectors - The optical module sector faced significant declines, with New Yisheng down 7.8%, Zhongji Xuchuang down over 5%, and Tianfu Communication down over 10% [3] - Notably, New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang had trading volumes exceeding 30 billion yuan, ranking first and second respectively [3] Defensive Sectors - The banking sector showed resilience, acting as a buffer against market selling pressure, with notable gains from Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (up over 4%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Qilu Bank, and China Merchants Bank (all up over 3%) [8] - The overall performance of 42 A-share listed banks in the first half of the year showed a total revenue exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 1%, and a net profit of 1.1 trillion yuan, a growth of 0.8% [10] Precious Metals - Precious metals also performed well, with West Gold hitting the daily limit and Hunan Silver up over 4% [11] - The price of spot gold surpassed 3500 USD per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by optimistic sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11] Institutional Insights - A report attributed to Morgan Stanley indicated that the market is not in a state of overheating, as trading volumes and margin financing balances have not reached historical highs, suggesting that risks remain manageable [13] - Economist Hong Hao expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the current bull market, suggesting that high valuation growth stocks may continue to rise if inflation is successfully managed, indicating potential for greater-than-expected market gains [13]