↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 朋友们中秋快乐～ 今日市场表现上冰火两重天， 黄金价格一路高歌猛进，继续突破新高；而港股市场特别是恒生科技指数，在经历一波反弹后，今日稍作回调，让我 们看看具体的市场表现。 01 港股开盘走弱 恒生科技跌逾1% 今日开盘，港股三大指数集体走弱，截止发文，恒生指数跌1%，恒生科技跌超1.5%。个股来看，宁德时代跌近3%，阿里跌2%。 华虹半导体则大涨近6%，股价再创历史新高，该股年内大涨超320%。 | 华虹半导体 | | | --- | --- | | 01347 交易中 10-06 13:08:54 北京 | | | 92.40 +4.90 +5.60% | 6.00万人加自选 36.0 > HK 空 通 窝 LO | | 高 92.80 | 总市值 1601.86亿 。 | | 低 86.15 换 1.16% 额 13.97亿 | 市盈TTM 660.86 | | A股 114.56 +15.72% +15.72% = | > | | 轮证 认股48类 牛熊24类 | > | | 股价异动 历史新高 +1.49% 现价88.80 | 09:32 | | 分时 五日 日 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes that success often appears effortless but is the result of significant hard work and dedication [4][14][23] - The article draws parallels between the challenges faced in sports and those in investing, highlighting the importance of resilience and learning from failures [4][30][53] Group 2 - The first lesson shared is that the perception of "effortless" success is a myth, as true achievement requires immense effort [14][16][23] - The second lesson discusses the inevitability of failure, illustrating that even top athletes experience losses and must learn to move forward [30][43][50] - The third lesson emphasizes that life extends beyond the confines of sports, advocating for a broader perspective that includes personal growth and social contributions [54][58][66]

Core Viewpoint - The decision to hold an investment is more crucial than the decision to buy it, emphasizing the importance of long-term commitment to growth stocks [13]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Many investors struggle to hold onto high-performing stocks, often selling too early due to short-term price increases or perceived overvaluation [4][5]. - Successful investors recognize that the true value of a company lies in its potential for future growth rather than its current valuation metrics [8][10]. - The concept of "let winners run" is essential for avoiding premature sales of growth stocks [6]. Group 2: Long-term Holding Strategies - Establishing a deep connection with a company through consistent engagement can provide investors with the confidence to hold their investments long-term [11]. - A steadfast belief in value investment principles is necessary, especially during market downturns, to maintain faith in the eventual recognition of a company's true value [12]. - Historical examples, such as the long-term holdings of successful investors, illustrate the benefits of patience and commitment to quality companies [13]. Group 3: Valuation and Growth - Investors should focus on the future growth potential of companies rather than solely relying on static financial statements [8][9]. - The ability to assess a company's future cash flows and growth prospects is critical for making informed investment decisions [8]. - The journey of companies from perceived overvaluation to reasonable price-to-earnings ratios can highlight the dynamic nature of growth investing [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of having 3 million yuan as a benchmark for financial freedom in China, highlighting its implications for wealth distribution and social class dynamics [4][28]. - It emphasizes that 3 million yuan is not just a number but a reflection of personal aspirations, lifestyle choices, and regional economic conditions [15][25]. Group 1: Wealth Distribution - The average household savings in China is approximately 300,000 yuan, which is ten times less than the 3 million yuan benchmark [7]. - Only about 0.03% to 0.05% of households have savings of 3 million yuan, indicating that it is a significant threshold that only a few can reach [7]. - The article presents a wealth pyramid categorizing households based on their savings, placing 3 million yuan in the "small wealthy" tier [10]. Group 2: Regional Differences - The value of 3 million yuan varies significantly across different cities in China, affecting its purchasing power and lifestyle implications [13]. - In cities like Beijing, 3 million yuan may only cover a down payment for a modest property, while in smaller cities, it could afford multiple properties [13]. Group 3: Financial Dynamics Over Time - The purchasing power of 3 million yuan can diminish over time due to inflation, with projections showing it could be equivalent to about 220,000 yuan in ten years if inflation remains at 3% [19]. - Investment strategies can significantly alter the future value of 3 million yuan, with potential growth ranging from 444 million yuan to 778 million yuan over ten years depending on the investment approach [19]. Group 4: Psychological Aspects - The article discusses the emotional response to having 3 million yuan, which can evoke feelings of both excitement and emptiness, as it represents a threshold for financial security but not complete freedom [22]. - It highlights the importance of personal goals and desires in determining the true value of 3 million yuan, suggesting that it serves as a stepping stone rather than an endpoint [24][25].

Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown crisis is ongoing, with the House Republican leadership deciding not to return to Washington, indicating a prolonged shutdown that will impact key economic data releases [4] - Economic decisions are becoming more challenging due to the lack of accurate data, leading businesses and policymakers to make educated guesses about economic trends [4] - Despite short-term uncertainties, some analysts believe that markets have historically shown resilience to government shutdowns, with past experiences indicating potential reversals in market declines once attention shifts to other factors [5] Group 2: Japan's New Prime Minister - High-profile politician, Sanae Takaichi, has been elected as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, expected to become Japan's first female Prime Minister [7] - Takaichi advocates for fiscal expansion and a right-leaning political stance, calling for the maintenance of loose monetary policy and opposing interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [8] - Analysts predict significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets due to Takaichi's victory, with expectations of a weaker yen and a steepening yield curve [9][10] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Historical analysis indicates a calendar effect in the A-share market, with the strongest performance observed in the first five trading days after the National Day holiday, showing a median return of 2.27% and an 80% win rate [12] - The current bullish trend in China's earnings fundamentals is believed to be developing, supported by external demand and improving domestic price stability [12] - Economic forecasts suggest a "N"-shaped oscillation in the fourth quarter, with technology remaining a key focus, while resource and consumer sectors may attract funding due to favorable policies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investing lies in overcoming human emotions of greed and fear, emphasizing the importance of patience and common sense in wealth accumulation [4][11][19]. Group 1: The Power of Compounding - Compounding is often misunderstood but is a powerful tool for wealth growth, with the "72 Rule" allowing investors to estimate how long it will take for their money to double based on annual returns [6][7]. - For example, an annual return of 5% takes approximately 14.4 years to double, while 8% only takes about 9 years [7]. - A historical case illustrates the power of compounding: Benjamin Franklin's $5,000 gift grew to $2 million after 200 years due to compounding [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The best investment approach is often the simplest, with a focus on index funds and dollar-cost averaging to mitigate emotional decision-making [19][32]. - Investors should diversify their portfolios to include various asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and cash reserves, to manage risk effectively [23][25]. - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio helps maintain desired asset allocation and counteracts emotional biases during market fluctuations [27][30]. Group 3: Personal Development as Investment - Investing in oneself yields the highest returns, with activities such as reading, skill acquisition, and maintaining health contributing to long-term wealth and opportunity [33][41]. - The journey to wealth is straightforward: save money, start investing in index funds, maintain discipline, and continuously improve personal knowledge and skills [39].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 涛波依旧 来源：雪球 储能目前是处于景气周期无疑了。这个景气周期能够持续多久？ 券商研报提出储能渗透率概念：即每年新增新型储能提供的灵活调节能力占整个电力系统每年新增灵活调节需求的比例。 以中国为例，未来可新增的电力系统灵活调节能力主要分为四类：火电调峰、抽水蓄能、需求侧响应、新型储能，前三者都有明显的发展 规模上 限，未来新型储能需要逐步担起重任，成为系统灵活调节资源的提供主体。 根据测算， 2024年中国储能渗透率仅为4.9%，预计未来10年有望快速增长至70%左右。 结合这一数据，新型储能目前的发展规模还远不及未 来电力系统对它的需求，储能产业仍处在生命周期中的成长初期。 预计2035年全球新型储能年新增装机容量峰值有望超过1.5TWh，2024-2035年年化复合增速有望达到21.4%。 其他券商研报基本都认为，储能未来五年复合增长率，高于20%。 我们再来看一下新能源汽车渗透率，新能源汽车在2020年的时候，渗透率仅为5%左右，在未来几年渗透率快速到达50%。 目前的储 ...

Group 1 - The article presents a formula for estimating the reasonable price of gold, which is based on the scale of U.S. debt: Gold Spot Price (USD) = U.S. Debt Scale (Trillions) * 100 [3][14] - The author emphasizes the importance of quantitative analysis in determining gold prices, arguing that qualitative factors alone are insufficient for valuation [5][6][7] - The relationship between gold value and global currency supply is explained, with the author likening individual perceptions of gold value to quantum states, leading to a stable macroeconomic price for gold [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the rationale for using U.S. debt as a proxy for global currency supply, highlighting the stability of the dollar's influence and its role in central bank reserves [12][13] - Historical data supports the formula, showing that gold prices have fluctuated around the U.S. debt scale divided by 100 since the 1990s [15] - As of September 2025, the U.S. debt is projected to reach approximately $38 trillion, with gold prices currently exceeding $3,800, indicating alignment with the formula [16] Group 3 - Two incremental factors that could influence gold prices are identified: increased market demand due to geopolitical tensions and a long-term decline in the dollar's status [17][18] - The article predicts that the U.S. debt will surpass $40 trillion in the coming years, suggesting that gold prices could stabilize around $4,000 based on the formula, with potential increases to $4,500-$5,000 due to additional demand factors [20]

大型科技股涨跌不一，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.47%。苹果上涨0.35%，微软上涨0.31%，谷歌-C上涨0.01%，英伟达下跌0.67%，亚马 逊下跌1.30%，特斯拉下跌1.42%，META下跌2.27%。 | 2275 | | | --- | --- | | AAPL 已收盘10-03 16:15:00 美东 | | | 258.02 +0.89 +0.35% | 92.75万人加自选 果(3( > | | US 融 空 期 LO | | | 高 259.24 开 254.66 量 4915.56万股 | 总市值 3.83万亿 | | 低 253.95 换 0.33% 额 126.75亿 | 市盈TTM 38.57 | | 期权 成交量140.59万张 未平仓数577.14万张 | | | 盘后 257.90 -0.12 -0.05% 19:59:57 美东时间 | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 李K 年K 分钟▼ | | | 均线 MA5:255.93 10:255.48 20:245.76 60:229.10 0 前复权 | | | 264.17 259.24 · | | | 1 15 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that wealth management is not merely a "hard science" but a game against human weaknesses, highlighting the importance of understanding one's own greed and fear to achieve financial success [2][3] - Long-termism is identified as the key to wealth accumulation, illustrated by contrasting cases of individuals who succeeded through patience versus those who failed due to greed [4][5] - The article discusses the psychological aspects of investing, noting that 80% of investment success is determined by behavior rather than technical skills, and emphasizes the need to embrace pain as part of the investment journey [6][7] Group 2 - The concept of "margin of safety" is introduced as a crucial element for ensuring that compounding returns are not interrupted, advocating for a diversified approach to investments and income sources [8][9] - The article highlights the significance of "tail events," which are rare but impactful occurrences that can drive substantial returns, underscoring the need for a high tolerance for errors in investment strategies [10][11] - It concludes that true wealth is defined by time freedom, encouraging individuals to embrace pain in the pursuit of wealth while also seeking to achieve happiness and mental freedom through financial means [12][13]